There is Markannen to Spurs Buzz

[baseline bum]

For Utah, I don't think there is an obvious right choice between trading and re-signing Markannen.

If Utah follow the usual rebuilding recipe by trading Markannen for picks/prospects, they could easily end up in a Detroit situation and being awful for half a decade because their current youth (Walker Kessler, Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George...) has shown nothing special so far.

Utah might also try to reload the team around Markannen after one year of tanking with the risk of ending being stuck in mediocrity.


It isn't an easy choice especially with the randomness of the draft lottery playing such a big role in a full rebuilding through the draft process.

With what right now looks to be two very strong drafts back to back Utah probably should blow it up and tank, especially since they can wring what should have a great shot at being a lottery pick out of the Spurs via Atlanta for either 25 or 26. Especially with the second apron now keeping you from making three star teams it becomes even more imperative to have a top notch #1 guy.

[scott]

This is key, and why I expect Utah ends up extending/keeping LM. There's some dedicated tankers this season, even without Markannen I'd put WAS/BKN below UTA in roster talent.

Let's assume they trade LM, tank and end up with the 5th worst record, odds of a top 4 pick are 42% (44% for Top 5).

If they keep LM and follow the same trend as the past 2 seasons and end up with the 8th worst record (where they finished last year), odds of a top 4 pick are 26%.

Would you trade a young All Star, who is on the record as wanting to be with your team, for a extra ~18% chance at a top 4 pick?? At what point does this random math make sense to give up such a key piece, +25%, +30%, +50%?

I think a starting lineup of Collier, George, Cody Williams, Taylor Hendricks and Walker Kessler could easily put them in the running for a bottom-3 record, and that is what they should do.

That lineup will be terrible, but it will also be kind of exciting for UTA fans - at least it is showcasing the youth. I'd compare it to our pre-Wemby tank. We had to watch McBuckets, Josh Richardson and Jak soak up minutes when we all probably would have preferred to just watch Blake-Bran-Devin-Sochan-Collins lineups. If you're gonna be bad, at least be bad while giving the youngsters some run.

[LeBowen]

Another thing to consider is that a lot of owners don't really care about competing for championships.
They're content with the arena being sold out and their team making the playoffs, winning a series here and there.
As I said before, Utah is the only team in the league that never lost 60 games. They just don't want to tank.

They have a ton of assets, odds of a superstar agreeing to join Utah are low.
Other than tanking, they can just build a solid team and then hope to strike gold with picks in 9-18 range. It's not like it's impossible.

But it's going to be really hard for them to keep their pick this year if Markkanen plays enough games.
I guess noone in the West except Blazers tanking is an advantage for them.
Nets, Wizards, Bulls will be horrible. Pistons, Hornets and Raptors won't be much better.
They could easily be in a similar situation to Raptors this year with their FRP.

Also, I wouldn't rule out Utah trading one of those CLE/MIN picks they have to remove protections on this year's pick if they do well.
OKC has own, PHI, MIA, LAC/HOU picks already, they don't need a fifth FRP in the same draft.

[baseline bum]

This is key, and why I expect Utah ends up extending/keeping LM. There's some dedicated tankers this season, even without Markannen I'd put WAS/BKN below UTA in roster talent.

Let's assume they trade LM, tank and end up with the 5th worst record, odds of a top 4 pick are 42% (44% for Top 5).

If they keep LM and follow the same trend as the past 2 seasons and end up with the 8th worst record (where they finished last year), odds of a top 4 pick are 26%.

Would you trade a young All Star, who is on the record as wanting to be with your team, for a extra ~18% chance at a top 4 pick?? At what point does this random math make sense to give up such a key piece, +25%, +30%, +50%?

They also need to tank to keep from having to give OKC their lottery pick. Let's say they end up with the 8th worst record. Then they probably keep their pick for 2025 but if they're 8th worst again in 2026 there is a nearly 40% chance their 2026 pick conveys to OKC.

[scott]

Another thing to consider is that a lot of owners don't really care about competing for championships.
They're content with the arena being sold out and their team making the playoffs, winning a series here and there.
As I said before, Utah is the only team in the league that never lost 60 games. They just don't want to tank.

They have a ton of assets, odds of a superstar agreeing to join Utah are low.
Other than tanking, they can just build a solid team and then hope to strike gold with picks in 9-18 range. It's not like it's impossible.

But it's going to be really hard for them to keep their pick this year if Markkanen plays enough games.
I guess noone in the West except Blazers tanking is an advantage for them.
Nets, Wizards, Bulls will be horrible. Pistons, Hornets and Raptors won't be much better.
They could easily be in a similar situation to Raptors this year with their FRP.

Also, I wouldn't rule out Utah trading one of those CLE/MIN picks they have to remove protections on this year's pick if they do well.
OKC has own, PHI, MIA, LAC/HOU picks already, they don't need a fifth FRP in the same draft.

My greatest fear is that this is where Holt Jr and his band of private investors are these days.

[baseline bum]

My greatest fear is that this is where Holt Jr and his band of private investors are these days.

Fortunately, lucking into getting Victor probably makes it better for them to spend to win the same way lucking into Tim did for his pops, who would have 100% been that type of owner you're scared of without that lucky bounce of the lottery balls in 97.

[LeBowen]

My greatest fear is that this is where Holt Jr and his band of private investors are these days.

That's probably what would've happened if we didn't get Wemby.
But he'll be not only the best, but the most marketable player in the league and generate so much revenue that competing is a better investment than treadmilling and potentially losing Wemby.

Current CBA looks like it's anti-superteam, Wemby is probably the easiest player to build a contender around, we'll be able to compete even without going too far into luxury tax.

[TeKu]

They also need to tank to keep from having to give OKC their lottery pick. Let's say they end up with the 8th worst record. Then they probably keep their pick for 2025 but if they're 8th worst again in 2026 there is a nearly 40% chance their 2026 pick conveys to OKC.

That pick is a definite thorn for Utah, maybe they try and trade one of their future MIN/CLE unprotected picks for it back again. The obligation drops entirely after 2026, but, I agree, threading the needle for 2 years in a row would be lucky.

[TeKu]

I think a starting lineup of Collier, George, Cody Williams, Taylor Hendricks and Walker Kessler could easily put them in the running for a bottom-3 record, and that is what they should do.

That lineup will be terrible, but it will also be kind of exciting for UTA fans - at least it is showcasing the youth. I'd compare it to our pre-Wemby tank. We had to watch McBuckets, Josh Richardson and Jak soak up minutes when we all probably would have preferred to just watch Blake-Bran-Devin-Sochan-Collins lineups. If you're gonna be bad, at least be bad while giving the youngsters some run.

Agreed, but is it likely, other than Sam Hinkie who has actually been willing to roll out these all development lineups? And it potentially cost him his job. In general, owners care about full stadiums more than X% increase at a le in 5 years.

[scott]

Agreed, but is it likely, other than Sam Hinkie who has actually been willing to roll out these all development lineups? And it potentially cost him his job. In general, owners care about full stadiums more than X% increase at a le in 5 years.

It definitely takes a FO and head coach with the highest levels of job security to do it, which is why I'm surprised we didn't do it when we had the chance. Could Ainge, Zanik and Hardy have that kind of job security? I don't know... but I think extending Lauri, finishing 11th, and losing the pick to OKC would threaten their job security more than one season of hard tanking... who knows.

[Bruno]

Unfortunately, this is the structure the NBA has created for small market teams. The Spurs would be in this exact spot with Vassell had we not hit the Wemby jackpot. There just isn't another way to crawl out of the bottom for a small market club other than to tank and hope for the ping pong gods to respond.

Full tanking is the only way for Utah to build a true contender but if their goal is to win 50 games per year and win a playoff round, they might do a reload. Utah also has a decent draft pick chest to use in trades after the Gobert and Mitc trades.

On a side not, the edge big market teams have above small market teams seems to be at a low point:
- Second apron is starting to show its effect with, for example, Clippers letting go Paul George.
- Less and less players are hitting free agency. Donovan Mitc signing an extension with Cavs is a good example of that trend.

... which is a good news for Spurs.

[scott]

Full tanking is the only way for Utah to build a true contender but if their goal is to win 50 games per year and win a playoff round, they might do a reload. Utah also has a decent draft pick chest to use in trades after the Gobert and Mitc trades.

On a side not, the edge big market teams have above small market teams seems to be at a low point:
- Second apron is starting to show its effect with, for example, Clippers letting go Paul George.
- Less and less players are hitting free agency. Donovan Mitc signing an extension with Cavs is a good example of that trend.

... which is a good news for Spurs.

Great points...

On the Paul George example, he still went from a Big Market to another Big Market though... so I'm not sure how indicative that will be for the fortunes of small market teams.

The Mitc extension is a really good point, but I think also highlights how important it is to get your #1 in house, which still might only be able to happen via the draft for a team like Utah.

I wonder if Utah can rebuild enough to become a 50-win team for a short burst. I suppose had they been successful at trading for Bridges, that could have put them in the mix, but maybe only lasting until Bridges's contract expires and he wants to go elsewhere? It's a curious position for them to be in, as you pointed out.

[TeKu]

It definitely takes a FO and head coach with the highest levels of job security to do it, which is why I'm surprised we didn't do it when we had the chance. Could Ainge, Zanik and Hardy have that kind of job security? I don't know... but I think extending Lauri, finishing 11th, and losing the pick to OKC would threaten their job security more than one season of hard tanking... who knows.

Ainge & Co do have more job security than most so maybe, but it's really Ryan Smith who'd be making a call like that. Most owners just aren't willing to take that hit to wallet/pride.

[TD 21]

Ainge & Co do have more job security than most so maybe, but it's really Ryan Smith who'd be making a call like that. Most owners just aren't willing to take that hit to wallet/pride.

Ainge proclaiming the Jazz were "going big game hunting" at the onset of the off season indicated to me that Smith has grown impatient and told management he'd had enough of tanking.

They'd been linked to George, Bridges and Murray and now today, Ingram (pending Markkanen being extended).

[LeBowen]

The Mitc extension is a really good point, but I think also highlights how important it is to get your #1 in house, which still might only be able to happen via the draft for a team like Utah.

Tbh, Mitc extension isn't that great for the Cavs. He kind of just put pressure on them to make some win now moves or he'll be gone soon enough.
Just a three year extension, with player option for 27-28 season. Meaning 26-27 season is probably the last one.
Meaning they'll probably have to trade him in 2026 if they don't improve.

He obviously wants to go back home, my hot take would be that Nets trade for him in 2026 after getting two top5 picks.

I wonder if Utah can rebuild enough to become a 50-win team for a short burst. I suppose had they been successful at trading for Bridges, that could have put them in the mix, but maybe only lasting until Bridges's contract expires and he wants to go elsewhere? It's a curious position for them to be in, as you pointed out.

Imo, it will be interesting to see the dynamic between them, Cleveland and Minnesota if they decide to keep Lauri.
Minnesota will probably have to let go of either McDaniels or Naz next summer. Utah could get McDaniels by giving a pick or two from Gobert trade back.
Lauri needs a legit rim protector and Kessler seems to be kind of lost. Cleveland probably doesn't want to keep Allen long term, they just extended Mobley.

Sexton, McDaniels, Lauri, Allen and one of Hendricks/George/Collier/Williams/'25 rookie developing and there's your parennial first round exit core.
Arena sold out, ownership is happy. Ainge probably quits.

[MultiTroll]

Which will come first?

A Markannen decision or this thread reaching 100 pages?

Hawaiin vacation to the winner who picks and the exact date.

[KobesAchilles]

My greatest fear is that this is where Holt Jr and his band of private investors are these days.

That’s a good fear to have, even with Wemby. People saying that it can’t happen bc we have Wemby are Spurs fans who are too young to remember the Robinson days. We gutted that team and went major cheap with Robinson bc they knew we would make the playoffs regardless. Could’ve had MVP Barkley but didn’t want to pay him. Could’ve had Chuck Daly but wanted to hire Lucas and ensure we had the cheapest coach in the league. Didn’t pay Strickland, signed Avery Johnson and Vinny DN as starters bc we didn’t have to pay them anything. They completely ruined my favorite (at the time) players legacy with their inep ude.

My fears/predictions have come true so far with the Spurs not making the playoffs 5 years in a row. My prediction was 8 years in a row but I feel like Wemby will get us there in 2027. But it irks me that other fans on this board seem perfectly fine with Pop costing Wemby an all nba team and a DPOY award. They just assume that he will win a plethora of them and so who cares. But to me, that’s such a bull at ude to have. It’s not wrong to expect greatness and have expectations that the franchise gears itself towards greatness when you have a player like Wemby.

[lefty20]

Which will come first?

A Markannen decision or this thread reaching 100 pages?

Hawaiin vacation to the winner who picks and the exact date.

Ainge is obviously waiting to see if this thread reaches 100 pages. No point in trading him here if it doesn't, as it would indicate that the fans clearly don't want him bad enough.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

There's 0% chance Spurs get Markkanen without giving up at least one Hawks pick.
I know fans are always subjective, but why would Ainge give up his legit all-star for picks that aren't projected to be in the lottery?

Hawks picks will be good, but I'll repeat again that odds of getting a top5 pick from another team are low because they have no reason to lose games.
Yes, it happened this year with Houston and Brooklyn, but the odds were 20%.
Sorry, but I value Lauri more than 20% chance for a top5 pick.

Each of the Hawk's 3 picks have a 20% chance of a top 5 pick. Then, what's the chance we get a top 5 from all 3 picks is 92%. Is my math correct? That's why none of these 3 picks are touchable.

[ambchang]

Each of the Hawk's 3 picks have a 20% chance of a top 5 pick. Then, what's the chance we get a top 5 from all 3 picks is 92%. Is my math correct? That's why none of these 3 picks are touchable.

If we use a flat percentage of 20%, the the chance of the hawks not being a top 5 for all three picks would be .8^3=51.2%. So we have a chance of getting one or more too 5 picks out of those three at a 48.8%

[MultiTroll]

I'm now firmly in the camp of Mark but only for a reasonable trade.

Is there a 2% chance he plays out his current contract and comes to Spurs as a UFA next summer?

[scott]

Each of the Hawk's 3 picks have a 20% chance of a top 5 pick. Then, what's the chance we get a top 5 from all 3 picks is 92%. Is my math correct? That's why none of these 3 picks are touchable.

I might be misunderstanding the question based on the way it's written and, but no, you do not have a 92% chance of all 3 picks landing in the Top 5.

If the chance of ONE pick being in the Top 5 is 20%, then the chance of all three picks landing in the top 5 is inherently lower than 20%. The odds of all three picks landing in the Top 5 would be 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.2 = 0.008 = 0.8%

If we use a flat percentage of 20%, the the chance of the hawks not being a top 5 for all three picks would be .8^3=51.2%. So we have a chance of getting one or more too 5 picks out of those three at a 48.8%

If you're asking what the odds of getting a Top 5 pick from at least one of the picks, this is correct. Here is a handy calculator for quickly solving for these types of basic probability problems: https://www.omnicalculator.com/stati...ip-probability

[scott]

I'm now firmly in the camp of Mark but only for a reasonable trade.

Is there a 2% chance he plays out his current contract and comes to Spurs as a UFA next summer?

Personally I'd put this at a less than 1% chance. No reason for Lauri to hit UFA next summer. He'd just reneg and extend with UTA and then ask for a trade next summer instead.

[baseline bum]

That’s a good fear to have, even with Wemby. People saying that it can’t happen bc we have Wemby are Spurs fans who are too young to remember the Robinson days. We gutted that team and went major cheap with Robinson bc they knew we would make the playoffs regardless. Could’ve had MVP Barkley but didn’t want to pay him. Could’ve had Chuck Daly but wanted to hire Lucas and ensure we had the cheapest coach in the league. Didn’t pay Strickland, signed Avery Johnson and Vinny DN as starters bc we didn’t have to pay them anything. They completely ruined my favorite (at the time) players legacy with their inep ude.

My fears/predictions have come true so far with the Spurs not making the playoffs 5 years in a row. My prediction was 8 years in a row but I feel like Wemby will get us there in 2027. But it irks me that other fans on this board seem perfectly fine with Pop costing Wemby an all nba team and a DPOY award. They just assume that he will win a plethora of them and so who cares. But to me, that’s such a bull at ude to have. It’s not wrong to expect greatness and have expectations that the franchise gears itself towards greatness when you have a player like Wemby.

Red McCombs was a special level of bag largely responsible for this ed up political climate the US now has thanks to Clear Channel brainwashing millions with fascist crap like Limbaugh, O'Reilly, Hannity, etc beating the same message into peoples' heads hour after hour. If the Holts sold their stake to Dell then I'd be ting bricks about getting another absolute sociopath owning and controlling the team but McCombs is a really high bar to clear when it comes to horrible owners.

[MultiTroll]

Personally I'd put this at a less than 1% chance. No reason for Lauri to hit UFA next summer. He'd just reneg and extend with UTA and then ask for a trade next summer instead.

All for some extra dough as UT can extend for more $$

Timmy Dunks taking 5 mil per year for another chance to le in 16. We're just never gonna see that again are we?
I realize that was a different cause.

Point being taking less, in Mark and modern day super paid NBA All Stars, FFS does it really impact your life if you sign for 200 million with UT vs 170 with Spurs and get 5 rings with Wemby? Sad.
Not sure what agent is telling him but i would think endorsement deals after 5 rings with Wemby would far overtake the lost money on a sign and trade with UT.