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Take a victory lap, champ, you've been needing oneSugus is dead wrong
here's a reciept for your dumbāss Sugus:
Nah, that's the one. I hit send on the post, and wondered myself, but was too lazy to go have a look
In any case, getting Wemby the year after hardly changes my original point (that any measuring of "future" from the start of that post would obviously include more than a single season or two, and clearly was made with an overarching prediction in mind, not thinking the Spurs would get Wemby, as the post ITT confirm). But alas, I'll take the L here
While I don't disagree with your point overall - it does fly in the absolute face of the whole point of making a "prediction thread", doesn't it? Like, why doesn't everyone just create "Spurs 2026 Champs!!!", "Spurs 2027 Champs!!!" threads and so on, since they can just say "oh, they looked certain to win the le when I made that thread!!".
You make a bold prediction thread when, no matter what the current landscape looks like, you have a gut feeling or belief (or some other kind of intel/reasoning) that lends credence to your claim. If your "prediction" is outdated and the opposite is actually true, only a measly year or two later.... What the are you predicting for, TBQH? Just STFU like the rest of us do instead of cluttering the forum up with "the Sun's coming out tomorrow!" posts.
Not like Gambit was ever good with doing that, but I digress
Last edited by Sugus; 08-16-2024 at 02:57 PM.
Take a victory lap, champ, you've been needing oneSugus is dead wrong
here's a reciept for your dumbāss Sugus:
Moving off gambit, that is a fun question about the value of predictions. I'd argue that ALL predictions are only good for the time frame in which the same major conditions apply and in fact any rational prediction based in logic should have the implied disclaimer of "based on the current available information and cir stances, I predict..."Nah, that's the one. I hit send on the post, and wondered myself, but was too lazy to go have a look
In any case, getting Wemby the year after hardly changes my original point (that any measuring of "future" from the start of that post would obviously include more than a single season or two, and clearly was made with an overarching prediction in mind, not thinking the Spurs would get Wemby, as the post ITT confirm). But alas, I'll take the L here
While I don't disagree with your point overall - it does fly in the absolute face of the whole point of making a "prediction thread", doesn't it? Like, why doesn't everyone just create "Spurs 2026 Champs!!!", "Spurs 2027 Champs!!!" threads and so on, since they can just say "oh, they looked certain to win the le when I made that thread!!".
You make a bold prediction thread when, no matter what the current landscape looks like, you have a gut feeling or belief (or some other kind of intel/reasoning) that lends credence to your claim. If your "prediction" is outdated and the opposite is actually true, only a measly year later.... What the are you predicting for, TBQH? Just STFU like the rest of us do instead of cluttering the forum up with "the Sun's coming out tomorrow!" posts.
Not like Gambit was ever good with doing that, but I digress
It's kind of like if a climatologist says they predict a busy hurricane season, but then an asteroid slams into the Earth... I'm not really going to hold them to be wrong on their hurricane prediction
Similarly, predicting now that the Spurs have a bright future isn't wholly invalidated if Wemby decides next week he doesn't actually like basketball and instead found his passion watching Raygun perform at the Olympics and he is pursuing break dancing instead... the Spurs future will no longer look so bright, but it won't necessarily make me look like a complete idiot for having made the other prediction.
But we can agree on this... gambit. His "worst prediction" thread was just lame because it didn't contain any substance. Do better.
Not sure I see it the same way. They've got Shai locked up for 3 more years at only 25% of the cap, Chet for another two years at what amounts to an MLE deal, and JWill at a bargain 4% of the cap deal. They overpaid for Hartenstein, but i's a short-term deal that nicely coincides with the Chet and JWill deals. The rest of the team is just a bunch of solid role players. Dort has got 3 years at 10% of the cap left, Isaiah Joe has 4 years at a sub-MLE deal, Queso Wallace is on a cheap rookie deal for 3 more... JWill probably does a rookie max deal while Chet probably does below the max, and everything kind of fits. The biggest impact they'll have is not being able to retain someone like Hartenstein.
I see what OKC doing as pretty similar to what the Rockets did (money wise) and how honestly I would have liked to see the Spurs use their cap space (we can still do so next summer). Load up on short term deals for useful vets, even on slight overpays, while you've got Wemby on a rookie deal. I guess in a way we did that, unfortunately it was just with Zach ing Collins.
Imo, the thing with OKC is that they'll be fine managing SGA/Chet/JWill core, but that's it. No fourth max player or deep bench if they end up with a supermax+2max in a few years.
We'll see if those three will be good enough to win it all, but if that's the core, then all those picks become somewhat useless if we talk getting another star.
I guess Presti won't hesitate to trade JWill and picks for a legit MVP level player or keep using picks to get elite role players on team-friendly deals like he did with Caruso.
But a lot of people expected OKC to somehow become the next KD Warriors and that just can't happen, luckily for us.
Obviously they can still draft some more good players, but won't be able to keep everyone as long as those rookie contracts are up.
Yeah, with the new CBA it kind of limits any team from being the next KD Warriors, so it kind of applies across the board. I do think if Presti needs to, he won't hesitate to move JWill or Chet to upgrade the core. SGA is the guy, everyone else is there to support him. This is kind of the way it should be with Wemby. If Wemby + Vassell + Whoever prove not good enough of a big 3 to win it, then Vassell or [Whoever] needs to be upgraded so that you can. I think the 2 Max + Near Max guy as the core model will be the meta going forward.
A couple of key players that could unlock a trophy are Caruso and Hartenstein, so I’m seeing their window as maybe 3 years with the full drafted and acquired crew.
I'm not sure, I could be overly optimistic but to me Spurs have the brightest future IF Wemby stays healthy.
Okc might be better today but they're not as attractive as the Spurs with Wemby and the "pedigree" of the Franchise.
Both teams have about the same type of draft capital short term but all Spurs need is one allstar addition or even better Vassell taking a huge leap and becoming an allstar level player.
it was very substantive.
a) the spurs were #1 in their division when i said they have the worst future in the division, so i wasn't kicking a dog while it was down:
they ended the year 4th out of five. then ended the next two years 5th out of five. QED.
b) the whole point of the thread was to go okc's route then. per the very first post in the thread:
demar's trade value was the highest at this point. instead they held on and moved him during the offseason when the league knew the spurs were desperate to part ways. they could've gotten a much better deal.imagine if they just let la and demar walk for nothing
they ended up getting nothing for la since they bought him out when the spurs' downward spiral had already started. also got nothing for rudy gay since he walked. the spurs, at the very least, could've netted three draft picks when their record was fool's gold.
(remember, the posts below are from 2021)
how did things turn out with lonnie, luka samanic, bryn forbes, drew eubanks?not even trying to be rude or troll but why would anyone have hope in this team?
internal improvement?
gonna sign a big name FA?
^^i made a separate thread about when murray would be traded (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=298674). everyone laughed. but i nailed exactly when it would take place.
some things never change
That pedigree has died years ago, and never brought any marquee FAs, except LMA (who had his kids here). Spurs are not the golden standard anymore and have never been an attractive destination. And I'm not sure Wemby changes much to that, as long as spurs are bottom feeders anyway. Chet/SGA is as much attractive than Wemby, maybe more for an older star in his prime if you consider they're already contenders.
And it's not like there's that many fitting stars available at any time.
Last edited by JPB; 08-19-2024 at 11:01 AM.
I mean we picked the perfect draft to tank. So I’m not bummed that we didn’t tank earlier. I am bummed about us missing with our picks. We gotta surround Wemby with actual players some point soon. That would be nice. But imagine if we did tank sooner and we got Banchero or Mobley. That would’ve been disastrous. They’re not bad players but they ain’t worth Vic.
I'm not talking about the Spurs fanbase.
Even if having Wemby was a factor, both the vets we signed were clearly also reassured by the presence of Pop and the Spurs pedigree.
Last season every media/journalists agreed that Wemby was lucky to end up in SA. For a reason.
I'm not saying suddenly Spurs will become THE place to be, I was just comparing with OKC, a smaller market than SA imo and that don't have yet the "cachet" that Spurs and PATFO (still) have.
Anyway, it's just a prediction, we'll see, but I'm more optimistic than you (as long as Wemby is available)
It's not so much about optimism/pessimism than tangible, actual facts. What you're mentioning is very subjective and elusive, and probably more an "image d'Epinal", (my french fella) than media are still rehashing than reality, which is spurs development program has'nt done that good these past few years, without any real success to show for them, and for all the respect I have for him, Pop hasn't either lookingg pretty lost and outdated. We're coming from 2 consecutive 22 win seasons. Wemby would have done well anywhere anyway.
As for the vets, we got a washed up CP3 on his last legs who probably came here more for the promise he got to be traded at the deadline than anything, and a Barnes who's a solid vet but nothing to jump on the curtains either (and who might also have gotten the same promise). Not like spurs attracted top, coveted vets and not sure spurs are attracting players more than any other team, probably still less actually. I believe players and media are still respecting the spurs more for their past than their present.
Last edited by JPB; 08-19-2024 at 03:07 PM.
And tbh, if I'm a star in my prime today and have the choice between OKC and a chance to be a le favorite from Day 1 and the next 4-5 years, or SA where I'll probably have to wait 2-3 years to see Castle, 25's pick and Wemby develop before starting to really contend, assuming everyone actually pans out... I'm picking OKC.
SA could maybe be a better or equally attractive destination in 2-3 years tho.
Been hearing about the supposed appeal of PATFO and the Spurs "pedigree" for 20+ years now, and it's only landed us LMA. Color me skeptical.
Add up all of the All NBA players signed as FAs by OKC,Indy,Sacto, and Utah, and it’s zero. The thing that has stopped us from signing FAs of multiple levels are the wives. Kidd and Korver come to mind. Gotta do better with that.
What an amazing list of winning franchises to be lumped in with.
I know I'm late to respond to this but...
I don't think its hard at all to say he's wrong. Why would we think that the Spurs had a worst future than a team like the Rockets at that time? Dallas already had Luka, and Memphis and NOLA were on the rise but Houston was still absolute and really hasn't done anything to merit praise. It was inevitable that the Spurs would have to bottom out, but I would argue they maximized their opportunity to do so. And sure, that involves the lottery luck to go your way, but the expected value of tanking in a year with Wemby is a lot higher than tanking in years like last year and that was a direct decision they made. Knowing when to make your move to maximize the reward for the risk is vital. You can maybe make the argument that the Rockets had a slightly better 2 years ago when the Spurs traded Dejonte but that's well after the thread was made and even then its debatable.
People on this forum love to act like Sengun is the next coming because they wanted to draft him, but I promise you the Rockets aren't exactly foaming at the mouth to give him a max contract. Same thing with Green who isn't as good.
When confronted by this in the thread Gambit never was able to back it up. When confronted that other teams were still finishing worse than the Spurs, he just deflected and talked about the future and that he didn't mean THAT year. Just because the Rockets started the tank earlier and had high lotto picks on their team before the Spurs doesn't necessarily mean they had a better future. Providing vague statements about what you actually mean for something that was inevitable (the Spurs being bad again at some point) is exactly the kind of move grifters use.
Terrible =! Worst
We've had some not go our way in the past decade, but we also won a ing le and were very good for part of that decade. Spurs fans really don't have a clue how good they've had it. This is probably the worst period in our franchises history but its still not even that bad and now we have the best prospect of the last 20 years.
Just to reinforce the Rockets vs Spurs stuff: The ONLY year the Spurs have finished with a worst record than the Rockets since that thread was made was last year, after we had Wemby. The Rockets are likely to finish better than the Spurs again this year, but this is probably the last year I'd wager that's the case but in no way are the Rockets looking like barn burners this year. If the players they are counting on to take steps do, then they'll be better, but that is far from a given.
I just don't see how anyone could say the Rockets have demonstrated having a clearly better future than the Spurs at any point after that thread was made. Yeah, you can argue that is simply because the Spurs won the lottery in a Wemby year and that is correct, but that's why you don't make stupid predictions that don't allow for the possibility of events like that. This was always a possibility and its one the Spurs actively pursued.
It’s our market tier.
So... we're right on par with our market tier contemporaries, and thus the PATFO and Spurs Pedigree adds nothing. Glad we agree!
You're quibbling over whether the Spurs were the worst, or marginally the second worst. Plot is officially lost.
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