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Of course they're enjoying themselves. They're ignoring you.
Every corner here in Berlin there is someone eating and or drinking. Kinda crazy. Berliners living life. I'm impressed
Of course they're enjoying themselves. They're ignoring you.
Haha. Fat and lazy?
Come visit here. People are more sharp. Less sports & entertainment. Almost no sports.
Just enjoy the routine and life with family
You're so negative. People here have caught on how the Left is full of happy meal bull . Dumb Americans might he dooped again
you still slavishly follow USA sports.
You'll never be one of them.
I've lived in 4 nations. I'll never be pressured. You still judging let's be honest you only speak 1 language. You are too scared to step foot anywhere kiddo
You'll never be one of them.
.
Mexican culture is blowing up in this region
I'm returning to life. If you have duel citizenship passport then come here.
Best regards. Chat soon.
Will you be voting in the USA elections as a dual citizen? You should, if possible, you can request a mail in absentee vote, it's not too late.
Especially if you're a California resident, those western states tend to be very generous/benevolent/liberal about mail in voting opportunity.
Every vote for Garvey lessens the evil smirk off Shifty Schiff's face a little; every vote for Trump adds to the popular vote total. Let's go.
VOTE FRAUD!
Are you moving to Austria, tbh?
It's not fraudulent if he has dual citizenship.
Like laws matter.
David McCormick Kicks Bob Casey's Nepotistic Ass In Pennsylvania Senate Debate
Hey Thread the Magic Negro about to campaign for Comrade Kamala
Is this geeat or what?
Why the GOP candidates are currently being drastically underpolled nationwide (particularly in the Rust Belt) in the Senate:
-Russ Feingold in this point in 2016 early October was leading by 9-11%. WOW! Polling aggregate would narrow to Feingold + 2.7% by Election Day, while the actual result was Ron Johnson + 3.4%. A polling miss of R+ 6.1%! https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...on-vs-feingold Massive polling miss here. I think in 2024 we have a similar situation where Eric Hovde is the type who will overperform Trump in the WOW counties similar to Johnson and then run roughly in-line with Trump in the rest of the state, shocking a lot of people. Currently, Tammy Baldwin is ahead of Hovde by +3.5% at the same time Feingold was ahead by +9.7%, which is BAD news for Tammy Baldwin, especially if anywhere near the R + 6.1% polling miss validates in 2024 (maybe give her a point or so for in bency, but even then, it's a presidential election post-polarization): https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...vde-vs-baldwin
-Can't really compare the Sherrod Brown/Bernie Moreno race to 2016 because Rob Portman was a Mike DeWine-style compromise moderate senator who won by relative dictator margins, but let's not forget that Moreno was ahead in the primary polling by a paltry 2.0% and ended up winning the state by 17.6% in the primary this year. He's an overperformer. https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...mary/2024/ohio Also, if Trump wins by his 2016/2020 margin or higher, I don't foresee an 8% or larger ticket split in favor of Brown, especially since Moreno is popular in the must-win counties for Brown, in the northeast part of the state near Youngstown. While Moreno very well may underperform Trump, he should win by roughly a similar margin as Vance in 2022 against a very similar candidate. Remember, post-polarization, top of the ticket beats in bency in presidential election years as opposed to midterms.
-Gary Peters in this point in 2020 early October was leading by 5.4%, which carried steady through Election Day. The actual result was Peters + 1.7%, overperforming Trump by almost one percentage point. This indicates that, especially factoring in an open-seat situation, it is actually highly likely that in 2024 Mike Rogers will overperform Trump down ballot, especially in the Grand Rapids metro area in West Michigan and also Oakland County, where Trump is less popular than the average Republican. It is also a polling miss of R + 3.7%, which factored into today's current Elissa Slotkin lead of +3.0% (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...ers-vs-slotkin), would net Mike Rogers a 0.7% actual victory in 2024, and would likely mean that Trump very narrowly loses Michigan by the smallest of tilt margins, which are both in line with my prediction on the first page of this thread.
-Katie McGinty in this point in 2016 early October was leading by 1.8%, which actually improved to McGinty + 2.0% on Election Day. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...mey-vs-mcginty) The actual result was Toomey + 1.6%, again outperforming Trump (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...ump-vs-clinton) by a margin of 0.9%, similar to my 0.7% prediction for Senate GOP-friendly ticket splitting in PA in 2024. Currently, in bent Bob Casey Jr. leads the polling by 4.0%, but that's with two high outliers factored in, throw those out and you've got a myriad of Casey + 1, Casey +2, Casey + 1, and even a couple of tied polls. McCormick has been drastically improving throughout. Meanwhile, Trump and Harris are currently mathematically tied in Pennsylvania (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...rump-vs-harris), which is an obvious drop off for the Democrats from the polling of 2016 and 2020. If the Presidential/Senate split, which should be marginal in either direction anyway, holds from 2016, then David McCormick should in theory be winning by a tilt margin at this point, or greater if polls are once again underestimating Trump (though the difference in polling miss in PA is admittedly less than WI and MI, in 2020 the polling aggregate was spot-on in PA, while in 2016 the polling miss was only Trump + 2.6%. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...hnson-vs-stein). Admittedly, this one appears to be lower confidence than the MI, OH, and even WI senate races, but McCormick has also been an unlikely overperformer in the past: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nsylvania.html here McCormick out-performed expectations by roughly 12% in the May 17, 2022 primary, even in the face of all the big-name GOP endorsements going against him.
-Jon Tester is all but cooked. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...eehy-vs-tester) Let this be a lesson from 2022, 2012, and other years for the GOP that candidate quality indeed matters! The Democrats are currently spending much more money trying (unsuccessfully) to flip Texas's senate seat than saving Tester's big bottom, seeing the writing on the wall here in a state that typically ticket splits for President and Senate in the Trump polarization era by D + 6.4%. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...nes-vs-bullock) vs (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...trump-vs-biden). Actually, polling looked much better for in bent governor Steve Bullock for this Senate seat in 2020 than it does for three-term in bent Tester in 2024. Tester is done.
-In Arizona I expect the Democrat to win but the ticket split is surprisingly small: (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ap-widget.html). Not only did Mark Kelly underperform polling in a similar open seat election to 2024 in 2020 by 3.3%, but he also only overperformed Biden by 2.3%. If you factor in a similar Democrat Senator-friendly ticket split in 2024, Ruben Gallego (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...rump-vs-harris) only defeats Kari Lake by +0.8%, which is actually a Tilt D margin and to the right of my Lean D prediction for AZ's Senate race. (Then again, I am less bullish than polls for Trump in Arizona.)
-In Nevada in 2016 you had the Senate election perform exactly in-line with the Presidential election, which is what I expect to happen again in 2024, hence my consistent "Tilt D" evaluation for the state at both levels as the state has been very slowly crawling red in the past decade. (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...zmasto-vs-heck) vs (https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...ump-vs-clinton) Both Hillary Clinton and Catherine Cortez-Masto won by exactly 2.4%. Trump would need to carry the state to carry Sam Brown across the finish line, and I'm not particularly bullish on Nevada for Trump.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 10-04-2024 at 02:50 PM.
He was born and raised in PA and lived there most of his life unlike Dr. Oz. Senator Casey relying on "muh Connecticut" as a crutch (13 times) in the debate more so than policy just makes him look weak in light of that. With Fetterman, the argument that "Dr. Oz didn't move here until last year and he's born in Ohio and has mansions in NJ and spent a lot of his life in Turkey" pulled a lot stronger weight with the voters... especially the Turkey part. McCormick did over-rely on the phrase "[Casey] is a career politician" but PA does like to vote for relative political outsiders lately, like Trump and Fetterman, so that argument isn't horrible.
I actually think McCormick out-runs Trump by about 0.7%. Will that be enough to win for either, who knows, but any ticket split in the rust belt with Trump on the ballot is historically in favor of the Senate candidate, not Trump.
Josh Stein is the real carpetbagger. Didn't live in NC until well into adulthood after being an Ivy League lawyer elitist oligarch. And Hillary in 2000 wasn't the biggest carpetbagger in Senate history?
So you're saying he was born in the state that he's running it, moved to Connecticut, then moved back to run for statewide office, and voters are going to like that? Great point, it's not like Tim Michels followed that exact same arc and did embarrassingly bad against Evers.
McCormick is a globalist hedge fund manager who'd use the senate to enrich himself. No one outside of devout Trump supporters believes that he's an "outsider"
Oligarch candidates like China Dave are proof that the GOP claiming to now be the "working class" party is bull
That's a dumb comparison because the ticket splitting in the rustbelt didn't involve in bents who've historically been overperformers, and the polling always foreshadowed the R senate candidate overperforming Trump. This year there hasn't been a single poll that showed China Dave overperforming Trump, in fact he's underperforming Trump in pretty much all of them.
Josh Stein is the real carpetbagger. Didn't live in NC until well into adulthood after being an Ivy League lawyer elitist oligarch. And Hillary in 2000 wasn't the biggest carpetbagger in Senate history?
Also Josh Stein's family moved to North Carolina when he was 3 years old, where he spent his entire childhood (he went to high school in Chapel Hill) and he moved back to NC after college. He's literally lived in North Carolina for his entire life beyond the first three years of it + the years he was attending school.
Even your whataboutism is ing re ed
^read my data analysis post a couple posts up.So you're saying he was born in the state that he's running it, moved to Connecticut, then moved back to run for statewide office, and voters are going to like that? Great point, it's not like Tim Michels followed that exact same arc and did embarrassingly bad against Evers.
McCormick is a globalist hedge fund manager who'd use the senate to enrich himself. No one outside of devout Trump supporters believes that he's an "outsider"
Oligarch candidates like China Dave are proof that the GOP claiming to now be the "working class" party is bull
That's a dumb comparison because the ticket splitting in the rustbelt didn't involve in bents who've historically been overperformers, and the polling always foreshadowed the R senate candidate overperforming Trump. This year there hasn't been a single poll that showed China Dave overperforming Trump, in fact he's underperforming Trump in pretty much all of them.
A lot of conservatives, indeed, compared McCormick to Pat Toomey over the years, dating back to 2022. (Pat Toomey was a carpetbagger from Rhode Island, FYI.) McCormick isn't the Trumplican populist archetype, might not even vote with Trump 100% (though he's recently come out in favor of tariffs) but there's no doubt he's an overperformer with the average independent voter especially compared to someone like Dr. Oz, and will win >97% of Trump voters too.
Mike Rogers also seems to be threading the needle with the old GOP guard and the new GOP populist guard and is a strong candidate. Eric Hovde is also a good candidate and will overperform Trump in the WOW counties, but not sure he'll win since the x-factor in WI is that Madison has been turning out in droves like never before and very very deep blue at all levels (even in special elections) with a vengeance since Roe was overturned in mid 2022. The Tim Michels comparison doesn't really apply to Senate because that's a state level election, but let's work with it. Tim Michels was a very poor public speaker, as was Doug Mastriano. Even though Michels wasn't running on "let's re-litigate muh 2020" unlike Mastriano, he was still a weak and unconfident public speaker. He didn't have the Scott Walker gift of gab, and WI was definitely another state the GOP underperformed across the board because of Dobbs v. Jackson, heck Ron Johnson was expected to win by a lean-to-likely margin but ended up winning by a frickin' tilt margin as the in bent in a ~90% white state against a Black Nationalist challenger of all things... WI in 2022 was an embarrassment for the GOP, really across the rust belt as a whole. Trump on the ballot and moderating on abortion, holding true to the 10th amendment etc and Vance affirming the same, solves a lot of problems there.
Side note on Tim Michels, Trump picked him over the obvious winning choice (Rebecca Kleefisch) because she came out that summer in favor of DeSantis for President which angered Trump's ego, which likely put Michels barely over the top in the primary.
It's going to be close. I have AZ/NV going blue at both levels and Gallego outperforming Harris by 2.3%, and Rosen running in-line with Harris which is consistent with past data. The "China Dave" is a good nickname that the Casey campaign should absolutely use, PA may like outsiders but they don't like second world countries, see Dr. Oz's performances in 2022.
Was that post pre or post Dobbs though? I feel like Dobbs carried the DNC in the rust belt, and I recall specifically calling that out on Friday, June 24th, 2022.
<edit> I re-read your post quoting me that I'd met Majewski in WI and OH, which were in August and September 2022, so post-Dobbs, so, yeah, I was wrong. Focusing too heavy on the yard sign analysis and not following my earlier inclination that Dobbs was really going to hurt the GOP in key 2022 swing races in both the House and Senate.
I've read conflicting stories about Stein but the point is that, he comes off as a prototype oligarch "I'm smarter than you and thus I'm better than you" Ivy League lawyer rich globalist hypocrite from the mid Atlantic. I guess you're lucky he's up against one of the worst GOP gubernatorial candidates in recent history. Stein will win through the suburbs that Trump will carry but, don't be surprised if the margin is closer than expected, Stein won't get the typical Dixiecrat hillbilly vote that people like Cooper and Beshear are used to getting being native sons and non-Christian in a solidly Southern Baptist majority state, and Robinson has actually been on the ground with Helene relief in W. NC this past week and has improved his image by doing that.Also Josh Stein's family moved to North Carolina when he was 3 years old, where he spent his entire childhood (he went to high school in Chapel Hill) and he moved back to NC after college. He's literally lived in North Carolina for his entire life beyond the first three years of it + the years he was attending school.
Even your whataboutism is ing re ed
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 10-04-2024 at 03:27 PM.
Your "data" is just a rebranded version of your 2022 wish casting. You can try and revise history all you want but with someone like Michels, whatever speaking flaw you're claiming he has now it didn't stop you from predicting he was winning in 2022. I look forward to similar hair splitting where you pretend you knew all along that former Bush administration official Dave McCormick was a flawed candidate after he loses and you try to downplay your laughably bad prediction.
As far as the other races go - Hovde will definitely overperform Trump in WOW but Baldwin will overperform Harris in the rural areas. I think Baldwin favored but I also wouldn't be surprised if Hovde wins. Close race imo. The prediction that Rosen running in line with Harris makes no sense, polls have her doing significantly better which makes sense when her opponent is an election denying Freddie Kruger with a disgusting ed up face
You made that prediction in September 2022, three months after Dobbs. The idea that you scaled your delusional 2022 predictions back after Dobbs is revisionist history, you predicted Laxalt, Walker, Masters (
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