Reply With Quote
All the misses when Trump has run have favored the D candidate. To think they've fixed their polling for 2024 is pure hopium
2016 badly underestimated Trump. 2020 badly underestimated Trump.
2016 was a miss, 2020 badly underestimated Biden's level of support, and 2022 was another miss
seems foolish to rely overmuch on polls
Bad Polling is a Behavioral Problem - The Big PictureTo those five basic sentiment issues, political polling has additional problems:
1. Landline phonesLet’s briefly consider each.
2. Voter intentionality
3. Mobile phones & Caller ID
4. Voter turnout
5. Voter participation
1. Landlines: In 2000, 95% of American households still had a landline phone. Today, it is merely 27%.
Losing three-quarters of households is an enormous decrease, and this radically impacts who pollsters can reach. (I am ignoring text and online polls as they are even worse than phone polls). It’s fair to conclude that this makes creating a representative pool of American voters very challenging.
2. Intentionality: I believe most (many?) people who respond to polls answer honestly. The problem is, people often don’t know what they genuinely believe. (Behavioral finance helps explain why this is so).
Everybody is focused on the undecided. Yes, these “Persuadables” matter. But my guess is they make up less than 7% of voters – maybe even less than 3%. What truly matters to outcomes is who and how many people actually cast a vote. Regardless of whether you are a hardcore political partisan or an independent, you may say you are going to vote — but the data shows that a third of you fail to do so. This behavior is what swings presidential elections.
3. Mobile phones (Caller ID): Who is answering unknown calls on their mobile phone? Unless you are expecting a call from someone whose number you don’t have – delivery, contractor, doctor, etc. – your phone (like mine) is probably set to “Silence Unknown Callers.” These go straight to voicemail — and if they don’t leave a message, its probably spam.
Who answers calls from unknown people and spends 20 minutes answering questions? I suspect they are not a representative pool of American voters.
4. Voter participation: The United States has one of the lowest percentages of eligible voters who actually participate in presidential elections (it’s even worse for state and local elections, as well as non-POTUS election years).
PBS, citing data from the United States Election Project, reported that “only 36% of registered voters cast ballots during the 2014 election cycle, the lowest turnout in a general election since 1942.”
In 2020, after a massive voter registration drive, the Census estimated that 168.3 million people were registered to vote. This was two-thirds (66.7%) of the total voting-age population. Most modern developed democracies have much higher voter registration rates. The United Kingdom has 91.8% (2019 parliamentary election); Germany, Australia, and Canada also have over 90% of eligible voters registered. Sweden and Japan automatically register citizens once they become eligible—they run a near 100% voter registration rate.
A surprising number of Americans assume they’re registered—and many are not. The 80 million eligible people not registered is a giant variable when it comes to polls. No wonder the margin of error is actually double what is typically estimated.
5. Voter turnout: The key challenge for pollsters is that people have no idea what their behavior will be in the future. This is why polls are merely “fair” a month and “kind of accurate” a week or so out, but they are completely useless a year, six months, or even two months before most elections.
Since 1980, turnout in presidential elections has ranged from 50% to 67% of the voting-age population. The 2020 presidential election had the highest voter turnout in decades, at 66.8%, but this still pales in comparison to most other Western Democracies.
Who gets up off the couch, goes to the local school or library, and casts their vote? The answer is a giant unknown. What is known is that a third to half of eligible voters don’t. This is also why a 2-3% margin of error is laughably wrong—it’s much closer to a 6-8% margin of error.
For any early poll to be accurate, it must accomplish 5 difficult tasks:
1. Reach a representative audienceThe first four all create errors – pollsters can take steps to compensate (in part) for those issues, but it’s still fraught with mistakes.
2. Have people accurately self-identify
3. Use unbiased polling questions
4. Receive honest answers
5. Get accurate predictions of people’s own future behaviors.
The last one is devastating to polling accuracy.
All the misses when Trump has run have favored the D candidate. To think they've fixed their polling for 2024 is pure hopium
2016 badly underestimated Trump. 2020 badly underestimated Trump.
I don't have hope the polls have been fixed. I think they're still wonky.All the misses when Trump has run have favored the D candidate. To think they've fixed their polling for 2024 is pure hopium
2016 badly underestimated Trump. 2020 badly underestimated Trump.
Does this signify a Trump collapse in just three days?
I don't think so.
A Harris lead of only 2% in a National Poll is an easy electoral college win for TrumpDoes this signify a Trump collapse in just three days?
I don't think so.
They haven't been fixed. Gallup polled the electorate as R+1 this year. Tons of polls being put out are polled at D+5 and higher. Literal hopium polls.
only if you assume the poll predicts what will happen on election day. three days ago it had Trump up by three points.A Harris lead of only 2% in a National Poll is an easy electoral college win for Trump
interesting, according to you, the polls are only accurate if they show Trump winning
That poll you linked from TIPP is a daily poll
I don't think they are accurate and I think they are still underestimating Trump like they always have, I think he's winning by even more than the polls say.
yes it isThat poll you linked from TIPP is a daily poll
yeah, you've already made up your mind what the outcome will be, based on polls and vibes. for better and for worse, voters have the final say, I wonder if you'll believe them if Trump loses again.
Q poll went from +4 Trump to +3 Harris in two weeks.
Is Trump cratering, or is the poll struggling to find purchase on levels of support?
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status...49064237199494
I was waiting for you to latch on this latest hopium poll
You cry about "red team polls" and then blindly repost garbage like this without looking at the sample.
Methodology important now.
Cope harder.
Look at you, convincing yourself the blue sauce makes the taste good. That's why they call you libs. As long as you keep eating it, they'll keep serving it to you.
With what?
I already think Trump is going to win.
You're the one who "didn't care" about methodology until now.
Stay miserable.
Stay projectingWith what?
I already think Trump is going to win.
You're the one who "didn't care" about methodology until now.
Stay miserable.
Whine hole does not.With what?
I already think Trump is going to win.
You're the one who "didn't care" about methodology until now.
Stay miserable.
Stay QStay projecting
it's like you ignored my actual takeI was waiting for you to latch on this latest hopium poll
You cry about "red team polls" and then blindly repost garbage like this without looking at the sample.
I honestly don't know who will win
lol already giving in to hopelessness
It's not going to soften the blow if he wins. You'll still cry like a baby.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
