Who will WIN the 2024 Presidential Election? (regardless of who you want to win)

[ElNono]

Still far better than Trump.

And Shillary

[ElNono]

these posts

Harris is cooked. Trump, decisively. Wouldn’t be shocked if he wins the popular vote too.

There’s a good chance Trump wins the popular vote. What will be your excuse then?

Cope harder.

[CosmicCowboy]

Wow, lots of hysterical hyperbole about me not voting for Harris. I didn't like either one so I didn't vote for either one. As to y'alls futile protest votes for Harris, here is a little reality check. Trump is gonna win Texas whether you voted for Harris (a candidate you know is a ty candidate) or not.

[TSA]

these posts

these posts

Sorry, but as things stand, Trump isn't winning PA, IMVHO, that's pure wishcasting. He won in '16 when he was a complete unknown, but 2020 is a far better indicator. I actually suspect he'll lose by a wider margin this time around.

And without Pennsylvania, his avenues to a win get much dimmer. He would need to win both AZ and GA

I give Dennison a 3% chance of winning PA. NV is not in play either, IMHO

I stand by my belief he's got a good chance to win the popular vote. I don't want an ELE bet with you because you're a good dude and I don't want to see you have to kill your account. How about a bet on popular vote and winner gets to choose what goes under your username?

[TSA]

Interesting read on GOP influenced polls and setting up another "we were ahead" claim from the felon


With the United States' 2024 presidential election less than two weeks away, many of the national and battleground state polls highlighted on FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics continue to show a very close race.

National polls released on October 22 show Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading GOP rival Donald Trump by 4 percent (Morning Consult) or 3 percent (Reuters/Ipsos and YouGov), but Trump has a 1 percent lead in a Rasmussen poll that came out the same day. Rasmussen, like Trafalgar and Quantus, is a right-wing pollster.

In an article published by The New Republic on October 23, journalists Greg Sargent and Michael Tomasky emphasize that GOP-aligned pollsters, according to critics, are making a concerted effort to create the impression of Trump enjoying momentum during the final days of his 2024 campaign.

Sargent and Tomasky point out that the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and others deny that right-wing pollsters are significantly affecting their polling averages. But an important question to ask, according to Sargent and Tomasky, is: "Why include GOP-leaning polls in the averages in the first place?"

"Take Pennsylvania," the New Republic journalists note. "We examined all the polls from October that FiveThirtyEight includes in its averages. As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph…. We should emphasize: We don't know which firms are 'correct.'"

Sargent and Tomasky continue, "In any case, they're all within the margin of error. But the pattern here is clear: many right-leaning pollsters and their clients are producing polling that is narrowly more pro-Trump."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...-aligned-polls


Also
“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?

Last month, a GOP-friendly polling firm presented itself, and its data, in a highly unusual way. Rather than maintain a nominally neutral public-facing profile, this pollster acted more like a cavalry brigade for Donald Trump’s campaign. And the firm did so explicitly, openly, and proudly.

It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit for this development. When a MAGA influencer celebrated the pro-Trump shift on X (formerly Twitter), Quantus’s account responded: “You’re welcome.”

The implication was clear. A Quantus poll had not only pushed the averages back to Trump; this was nakedly the whole point of releasing the poll in the first place.
https://newrepublic.com/gop-polls-rigging-averages

Got any more RCP Battleground polls to post?

[TSA]

these posts

These are all the National Polls he's leading in. Not sure why you think my statements are lmao.

[TSA]

Sorry, but as things stand, Trump isn't winning PA, IMVHO, that's pure wishcasting. He won in '16 when he was a complete unknown, but 2020 is a far better indicator. I actually suspect he'll lose by a wider margin this time around.

NV is not in play either, IMHO

[TSA]

These are all the National Polls he's leading in. Not sure why you think my statements are lmao.

[baseline bum]

Wow, lots of hysterical hyperbole about me not voting for Harris. I didn't like either one so I didn't vote for either one. As to y'alls futile protest votes for Harris, here is a little reality check. Trump is gonna win Texas whether you voted for Harris (a candidate you know is a ty candidate) or not.

So who is the last Democrat presidential candidate you'd vote for over Trump? Wallace? LOL thinks Dems are equally as bad as a guy who incited a (thankfully failed) coup when he lost the election last time. If that's your take what the did you even vote for since all state seats are safe GOP and Cuellar is really likely to win TX-28?

[ChumpDumper]

So who is the last Democrat presidential candidate you'd vote for over Trump? Wallace? LOL thinks Dems are equally as bad as a guy who incited a (thankfully failed) coup when he lost the election last time. If that's your take what the did you even vote for since all state seats are safe GOP and Cuellar is really likely to win TX-28?

No guyz, this is just a normal election with two normal candidates from whom I will be choosing or not normally.

[SnakeBoy]

Wow, lots of hysterical hyperbole about me not voting for Harris. I didn't like either one so I didn't vote for either one. As to y'alls futile protest votes for Harris, here is a little reality check. Trump is gonna win Texas whether you voted for Harris (a candidate you know is a ty candidate) or not.

They don't care about any of that. They're in full hive mind party loyalty mode. It's a commie thing I guess.

[Blake]

Wow, lots of hysterical hyperbole about me not voting for Harris. I didn't like either one so I didn't vote for either one. As to y'alls futile protest votes for Harris, here is a little reality check. Trump is gonna win Texas whether you voted for Harris (a candidate you know is a ty candidate) or not.

Lol "hysterical hyperbole".

Good of you to not vote for Harris to further cement Trump's victory in Texas

[Blake]

They don't care about any of that. They're in full hive mind party loyalty mode. It's a commie thing I guess.

Could this be any richer

[Ef-man]

Got any more RCP Battleground polls to post?

As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph



Strange that in several other recent polls show Harris ahead:
-In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.

-A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

-Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.

-Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

[TSA]

You're sucking down the same "red poll flooding" that winehole is This theory has been debunked by owners of 538, RCP, and Nate Silver.

As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph

Strange that in several other recent polls show Harris ahead:
-In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.

-A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

-Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.

-Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

Look at the quality of the polls you're pointing to



Then look at how these polls are weighted. Hopium polls with D+5 when the actual electorate is closer to R+1 per Gallup.

I don't expect you to acknowledge or understand this because you've already shown you don't understand even basic polling averages.

Also from RCP - Polls from Battle Ground States favor Harris by +0.9%

Harris - 49.3%
Felon - 48.4%

Oof

RCP Battlegrounds Trump +1.2

https://www.realclearpolling.com/ele...eground-states

stupid

[Ef-man]

You're sucking down the same "red poll flooding" that winehole is This theory has been debunked by owners of 538, RCP, and Nate Silver.



Look at the quality of the polls you're pointing to



Then look at how these polls are weighted. Hopium polls with D+5 when the actual electorate is closer to R+1 per Gallup.

I don't expect you to acknowledge or understand this because you've already shown you don't understand even basic polling averages.

19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far, eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlet
Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, Rasmussen

"Debunked"

[TSA]

As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph



Strange that in several other recent polls show Harris ahead:
-In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.

-A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

-Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.

-Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

The keepers of the averages insist that the impact is very minimal. Outfits like FiveThirtyEight; Split Ticket, the Times’ in-house polling tracker; and Nate Silver’s forecast all take methodological steps ostensibly to ensure that “garbage-in” polls don’t lead to “garbage-out” results. These include downgrading the “weight” of polls thought to be systematically biased so they have less influence on the averages than high-quality polls do. (FiveThirtyEight has detailed criteria for determining whether pollsters are high quality, including empirical accuracy and methodological transparency.) Another step is adjusting for a particular pollster’s “house effects” to downplay biases.

Is all this working? The keepers of the averages say yes. G. Elliott Morris, who runs FiveThirtyEight, recently calculated that if the averages only include high-quality polls—and not GOP-aligned ones—the results are in some states less than one-half a point different. The Times’ Cohn, who recently acknowledged that we’re seeing a “deluge of polls from Republican-leaning firms” in the averages, ran a similar calculation and found the results moving only imperceptibly.

We see no reason to doubt the accuracy of those calculations. If news consumers are going to trust the curation of high-quality polls that outlets like FiveThirtyEight conduct, then it’s also understandable if they give some weight to these reassurances. And given the larger context here—that is, how inexact a science even high-quality polling tends to be—one can see why aggregators would suggest that tiny shifts in the averages, even ones seeded by GOP polls, don’t warrant too much concern.

https://newrepublic.com/article/1874...averages-trump

[CosmicCowboy]

As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph



Strange that in several other recent polls show Harris ahead:
-In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.

-A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

-Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.

-Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

National polls don't mean . At last report all the swing states were statistical ties at 49 and 49.

[TSA]

19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far, eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlet
Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, Rasmussen

"Debunked"

Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, and Rasmussen were all top 5 most accurate pollsters of 2020 you stupid

And yes...debunked.



The keepers of the averages insist that the impact is very minimal. Outfits like FiveThirtyEight; Split Ticket, the Times’ in-house polling tracker; and Nate Silver’s forecast all take methodological steps ostensibly to ensure that “garbage-in” polls don’t lead to “garbage-out” results. These include downgrading the “weight” of polls thought to be systematically biased so they have less influence on the averages than high-quality polls do. (FiveThirtyEight has detailed criteria for determining whether pollsters are high quality, including empirical accuracy and methodological transparency.) Another step is adjusting for a particular pollster’s “house effects” to downplay biases.

Is all this working? The keepers of the averages say yes. G. Elliott Morris, who runs FiveThirtyEight, recently calculated that if the averages only include high-quality polls—and not GOP-aligned ones—the results are in some states less than one-half a point different. The Times’ Cohn, who recently acknowledged that we’re seeing a “deluge of polls from Republican-leaning firms” in the averages, ran a similar calculation and found the results moving only imperceptibly.

We see no reason to doubt the accuracy of those calculations. If news consumers are going to trust the curation of high-quality polls that outlets like FiveThirtyEight conduct, then it’s also understandable if they give some weight to these reassurances. And given the larger context here—that is, how inexact a science even high-quality polling tends to be—one can see why aggregators would suggest that tiny shifts in the averages, even ones seeded by GOP polls, don’t warrant too much concern.

https://newrepublic.com/article/1874...averages-trump

[TSA]

National polls don't mean . At last report all the swing states were statistical ties at 49 and 49.

As of yesterday's RCP average Trump is leading all swing states.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/ele...eground-states

[TSA]

[SnakeBoy]

National polls don't mean . At last report all the swing states were statistical ties at 49 and 49.

This is what makes it strange that so many libs are giving up and so many repugs are ing the ball. Gonna be some hilarious reactions no matter which way it goes.

[Ef-man]

QTSA: I don't care that Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, Rasmussen are right leaning firms sucking Orange in the golf club showers!!!! I am hear for the entertainment!!!

[SnakeBoy]

QTSA: I don't care that Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, Rasmussen are right leaning firms sucking Orange in the golf club showers!!!! I am hear for the entertainment!!!

Rasmussen is a dem leaning poll

[Winehole23]

Rasmussen is a dem leaning poll

odd that they recently got caught consulting secretly with team Trump, what's up with that?