The Post Injury Rotation + One (Relatively) Minor Move

[scott]

Been thinking about this some more, coming off 3 straight wins, a +.500 record past the 20% mark of the season, and the only team in the league with 3 wins versus the top 3 teams in the west. Do I think we are legit contenders in the West? No, but I do think we can be a playoff team *AND* doing so could be in the best interest of the franchise's long term goals.

First, let's start with some facts:

The current Starting Lineup remains the #1 5-man lineup in the entire league in terms of Net Rating (min. 75 minutes played), and by a significant margin. Not only is this lineup as good offensively as the other top lineups, but it's WAY better defensively.

	GP	MIN	OFFRTG	DEFRTG	NETRTG	TS%	PIE
Paul-Castle-Champ-Barnes-Wemby	9	87	128.9	98.9	30.0	67.4	64.8
Horford-Holiday-Brown-Tatum-White	8	137	127.0	105.7	21.3	67.6	58.6
Jokic-Murray-Porter-Braun-Watson	4	80	135.2	114.7	20.4	67.7	59.7
Gorgon-Jokic-Murray-Porter-Braun	5	118	131.7	116.8	14.9	63.5	57.0

One main reason why this lineup works, in my opinion: Only one "non-shooter" in the lineup in Castle, who is improving rapidly in that area. Castle has had some rough shooting nights as of late, but even then I'd still say he is not a shooting liability, and he's hit some clutch 3s in both of the last two games.

We can all see with our own eyes the massive drop off when we go to our bench, which is not surprising since we don't have a lot of depth.

Yes, you might be able to upgrade the starting 5 further (and by proxy, improve the bench unit) by moving Vassell and Sochan into the starting 5, but I'd argue you gain more by leaving the starting 5 as is and inserting Devin and Jeremy into a 6th and 7th man role, at least until this starting 5 starts being less effective.

I propose moving to a rotation that looks like this:

Guard: CP3 and Castle starting in a primary 3 man rotation with Vassell. Tre picking up spot minutes as fatigue, foul trouble, injury, off-nights, etc. dictate
Forward: Champ and Barnes starting, with Keldon* and Jeremy in the rotation. Spot Mamu minutes as necessary.
Center: Wemby with Collins and Bassey in matchup dependent backup roles. Mamu spot minutes in small ball lineups.

The closing lineup could eventually evolve into a 3-guard lineup with CP3, Castle and Vassell with Sochan or Barnes at the 4 depending on cir stances.

You'll note I have an asterisks next to Keldon's name above... and there is a reason for that.

I'd be looking at moving Keldon to add a key piece for this playoff push. There is no strong reason to go out of our way to dump Collins, Branham or Wesley... they are fine, you just simply play others and each of those guys can actually be valuable contributors in limited roles and used in the right situations. Keldon, on the other hand, fills too important of a role and (IMO) is not up to the challenge.

I like Keldon. He brings energy and excitement... but he's too low IQ, too inconsistent, doesn't fit the defensive iden y, and his 3pt shot cannot be relied upon. We should look to move him for a 3&D wing. That can be someone who plays the 3 or 4 - the nice thing about Sochan and Barnes is they provide that flexibility. Keldon is playing a 3/4 role anyway (one he really isn't that nicely suited for though).

Here are some ideas:

Idea #1

Spurs Trade Keldon Johnson and the CHA 2025 FRP (Lotto Protected) plus some SRPs to BKY for Dorian Finney-Smith

Ironically, DFS is actually in the #5 best Net Rating Lineup in the league after the 4 I posted above (Schroder-DFS-Claxton-Cam J-Cam T). You'd think eventually the Nets would realize they should be tanking though... but maybe not. If they are tanking, then Keldon would be a nice tank commander for them and they can add some more draft capital. DFS is shooting 41% from 3 this year on 5.6 attempts/game. He does have a player option for next year at $15.3MM, but he would save us about $3.5 on the cap next year and get us out of one more years of Keldon after the end of DFS's deal. Trade Machine says this trade works.

Idea #2

Spurs Trade Keldon Johnson and some SRPs to MIA for Duncan Robinson

I actually don't know why Miami would make this trade other than to simply shake things up. I'm happy to throw in the CHA pick, and I might even consider the CHI pick. Salaries are about equal, it shaves 1 year off our commitment to Keldon, but it injects some real shooting into our lineup and Robinson actually grades out a better defender in Crafted DPM compared to Keldon. This also works in the trade machine.

Idea #3

Spurs Trade Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins and some TBD draft capital to DEN for Michael Porter Jr.

I actually don't really like this trade (and it's bigger a trade than I really want to make), but MPJ is very good archetype fit. I don't really want to get rid of Collins like this, but he's required to make the deal work. We'd have to go out and get more C depth if we did this. I don't think Denver does this, because I think they actually like MPJ - but this does help break his bad contract into more easily manageable chunks and it gives them a little more depth. Don't think they'd want another, even worse, version of Westbrook on their team though.

There aren't a lot of options out there right now, but I think this is along the lines of what we should be doing.

I want to see if fighting to win a first round playoff series this year (even if we lose that series in 6 or 7). I think that experience and picking #20 will be more impactful than missing the play-in and getting pick #13.

I'm sure lots of folks will disagree... I look forward to hearing your takes.

[SpursBills]

Of all the players on this roster, Keldon Johnson has disappointed the most this season, by far. The man is at a -3.4 EPM (-1.3 O/-2.1 D, 11th percentile) and has gotten worse year after year. The season is still young yes, but he's in his 6th year and still does the exact same game after game. For reference, Malaki Branham is at -2.3, Blake Wesley -4.3 (!), and Zach Collins who the entire board (myself included) loves to on is at -1.0. I am concerned he will probably not be able to be a part of a defensive team moving forward.

[spurraider21]

I always had questions about Keldons long term standing here but i also didn’t think he’d regress like he has

[Dejounte]

Whoever they trade Keldon for will have to be convincingly good with no risk of being a bad fit on this team. The voices on the team have remarked how much of a difference Keldon makes in the locker room, that it’s going to be hard to easily give that up if he is truly the heart and soul of the team. It could very well have a ripple effect on the mood of the players, and how well they respond in the face of defeat without Keldon there to lift them up. Obviously, they’re all professionals so you’d hope they’d get over it— but it’s no guarantee, tbh. Of the proposals, MPJ is the only one that I feel wouldn’t hurt the morale of the team too much because he’d play well enough to make a positive impact.

[heyheymymy]

Fantastic data-supported analysis, scott.

Pretty realistic scenarios you proposed. Not sure I'd pull the trigger but Idea # 1 caught my attention at least.

I feel like the Nuggets need depth/help but not sure they'd do that deal.

I agree with you that Keldon seems to be the trade block feature right now though. Best trade value that's also least likely to be in the Spur's long term plans. I love KJ and think he could be useful to keep as well, but you gotta figure he's the piece you can best part with for a reasonable return. Zollins, Bran, those will require sweeteners possibly or yield much more neutral returns.

Be realistic about the return piece. It would be awesome to get our cherry on top and you start salivating seeing the Jrues Bridges and the OGs flying around. I'd love for the Spurs to pry a big fish too but even just a nice fit role player would tilt the scales tremendously in SAs favor.

Also wonder if the franchise maybe likes the chemistry right now and wouldn't want to change anything. Spurs are weird sometimes. But who is that Mills or Diaw type that comes in unexpectedly?

[scott]

Whoever they trade Keldon trade will have to be convincingly good with no risk of being a bad fit on this team. The voices on the team have remarked how much of a difference Keldon makes in the locker room, that it’s going to be hard to easily give that up if he is truly the heart and soul of the team. It could very well have a ripple effect on the mood of the players, and how well they respond in the face of defeat without Keldon there to lift them up. Obviously, they’re all professionals so you’d hope they’d get over it— but it’s no guarantee, tbh. Of the proposals, MPJ is the only one that I feel wouldn’t hurt the morale of the team too much because he’d play well enough to make a positive impact.

This is a great point.

[scott]

To further drive things home for me, during yesterday's game versus GSW never at any point did I think to myself "wow, we could really use what Keldon Johnson offers right now"

While Collins gave us literally nothing yesterday, I could at least say to myself "it would be helpful if Collins were actually contributing" - but with Keldon, just not having him available was the best possible outcome... and that says a lot.

[jesterbobman]

I've had similar thoughts on keeping the starting 5, with the debate being between building long term connections between main young pieces (Dev / Castle / Sochan / Wemby) and solid play this year, and I think Vassell and Sochan off the bench probably works best, given how well the starting 5 has performed. You can always mix and match a bit so you have chances for those guys to work together.

I think that gives a better bench unit, allows Sochan to be a bit more of a playmaker and the primary PNR threat, and you have a bit more size in the second unit, so you can play Collins up at the level / Bassey in drop. I think Keldon works better in that group as a SF, rather than as a PF next to Collins, where his lack of rim protection is a real issue as part of the two man pair.

Other option that'll be brought up is Cam Johnson, which is probably something like the DFS trade + additional assets (Chicago and Charlotte?). Same idea.

[RC_Drunkford]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

[baseline bum]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

Can't say I'd be excited about the dropoff in defense swapping Champagnie for Vassell in the starting lineup. Maybe if it gets Victor to quit jacking up hero-ball threes early in the game it could be worth it I guess.

[RC_Drunkford]

Can't say I'd be excited about the dropoff in defense swapping Champagnie for Vassell in the starting lineup. Maybe if it gets Victor to quit jacking up hero-ball threes early in the game it could be worth it I guess.

who says Vassell is a bad defender?

[Mugen]

who says Vassell is a bad defender?

He's been an average defender at best for a while now tbh.

[KingKev]

Keldon isn’t getting you much if anything in a trade.

[Mugen]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

Pretty much agree with this. I think you have to start Vassell and Sochan if they're healthy and you're not managing their minutes.

And I think Castle has earned keeping his starting role.

[scott]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

That lineup will still get plenty of run, it just won't be the starting 5 (though I'd envision it being the closing 5).

One of the premises I'm operating on is that our Starting 5 doesn't need to be any better. It's already 15 points better in Net Rating than the best 5-man lineup in the league last season (min 500 minutes played). If I drop that threshold down to 200 minutes played, it's still the second best 5-man lineup in the league (4 points behind the best lineup of Batum-Harris-Embiid-Melton-Maxey).

There just isn't much better this starting 5 can be... and Vassell would improve the bench more than Champ would.

Finney-Smith being 31 is actually a feature, not a bug. I'm not looking for a blockbuster trade or long-term player here. Just a savvy vet who's going to give us smart minutes while our Young Core is allowed to grow. It still lets us go after Markk in the offseason.

[DAF86]

I actually disagree and think they should absolutely try to play the CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby line up. Just to build cohesion for the future and see how it works. Vassell should be able to replace Champagnie pretty easily. If more spacing is required, Sochan has to go to the bench and Barnes slides into the starting line up. I get not breaking up a line up that works, but we have to think long term here.

CP3/Castle/Vassell/Sochan/Wemby
Tre Jones/Champagnie/Keldon/Barnes/Bassey (one can dream he takes Zach Collins' spot)

Champangie/Barnes subbing in for Vassell/Sochan early would still allow you to play the best line up for some minutes til Wemby goes to the bench, if he can be out there longer than 6 minutes.

As for trades I was thinking about it as well, but don't really see anything that moves the needle much. Finney-Smith makes some sense, but he's 31 already. Cam Johnson's shooting and offball movement would be nice, but from what I've read he's not that good defensively either. He can basically only guard 3s and gets abused by smaller and bigger players, so I don't know how much he would help this team.

As we all know Markkanen would really be the one to take this team to another stratosphere.

I was halfway into writing this exact same post, untill I saw this.

CP3, Vassell, Castle, Sochan and Wemby is the way to go. If it doesn't work, then you can plan accordingly coming into next season. Let's figure out if our suppossed core pieces can co-exist with each other.

[exstatic]

That lineup will still get plenty of run, it just won't be the starting 5 (though I'd envision it being the closing 5).

One of the premises I'm operating on is that our Starting 5 doesn't need to be any better. It's already 15 points better in Net Rating than the best 5-man lineup in the league last season (min 500 minutes played). If I drop that threshold down to 200 minutes played, it's still the second best 5-man lineup in the league (4 points behind the best lineup of Batum-Harris-Embiid-Melton-Maxey).

There just isn't much better this starting 5 can be... and Vassell would improve the bench more than Champ would.

Finney-Smith being 31 is actually a feature, not a bug. I'm not looking for a blockbuster trade or long-term player here. Just a savvy vet who's going to give us smart minutes while our Young Core is allowed to grow. It still lets us go after Markk in the offseason.

Isn’t Batum on the clippers this year? And Tobias Harris on the Pistons?

[scott]

Isn’t Batum on the clippers this year? And Tobias Harris on the Pistons?

Highlighted the relevant qualifier for you:
"It's already 15 points better in Net Rating than the best 5-man lineup in the league last season (min 500 minutes played). If I drop that threshold down to 200 minutes played, it's still the second best 5-man lineup in the league (4 points behind the best lineup of Batum-Harris-Embiid-Melton-Maxey)."

[100%duncan]

A few points:

-Spurs should definitely push for the playoffs. A quarter of the season done so far, 1 east game played, and we're at 9-8. That's already a fringe playoff team. And yes, losing in the first round would be way better than having a higher pick even in a very good draft. This team and this core needs to be playing important games ASAP. Which is why I hope we can also get a good run in the in-season tournament, as these are pseudo-important games.

-I agree with the others. While you don't really want to fix what's not broken, I also think that it's more important to get your supposed core for the future much needed reps now. So I think the SL should be CP3, Castle, Dev, Sochan, Wemby, and the closing line-up would be almost identical just depending on some adjustments and match-ups. Although I see the reasoning of Scott, the bench would still be much better with Barnes and Champ anyway. Why not make your starting 5 even more dangerous, given that that's your core for the future.

-Re: keldon's absence. I kinda felt bad, I didnt even notice he wasn't playing until he was shown around the 3rd quarter. If as fans, we don't really notice his any positives from him, how much more the other FOs? While your packages seem somewhat realistic aside from MPJ, I think Keldon even has less value in the league now. His biggest value in a trade isn't anywhere near about his skills on the court (even for tanking teams tbh, you'd still want players that you can build upon) but rather his contract solely.

[BacktoBasics]

I’m don’t think we’ve seen Vassell and Sochan play together this season. The lineups are improving but I feel like we need to see what we’d look like healthy before fully determining what a Keldon trade should return.

[jesterbobman]

And, the other big spend on an older guy who might be washed is Keldon / BRanham / Wesley (makes money work) / Chicago pick +??? for Khris Middleton. No reason for the Bucks if he's not cooked, but if they want to fill the draft asset cupboard a little and have a chance to reset around Giannis its probably a Middleton trade.

[Dejounte]

And, the other big spend on an older guy who might be washed is Keldon / BRanham / Wesley (makes money work) / Chicago pick +??? for Khris Middleton. No reason for the Bucks if he's not cooked, but if they want to fill the draft asset cupboard a little and have a chance to reset around Giannis its probably a Middleton trade.

That would be a uva veteran to learn from. It would be like the Rockets vets with Steven Adams, FVV, Dillon Brooks but way better. Our trio of vets will pave the way for the future.

[Guru of Nothing]

What are the range of outcomes with a lineup of Wemby, MPJ, Sochan, Castle, and Vassell (sorted by height)? Suddenly I have Bob McAdoo on the brain.

[ginobilized]

Nice work and mahalo!

This is a great problem to have. There's a chance that we might possess some more really strong lineups with Sochan and Vassell back.

My best (highly uneducated) guess is that it comes down to the Spurs fully playing their hand with what they've got. Sometimes it seems they subscribe to the Sunk Costs Fallacy.
If a move does come down the line, I like your ideas, especially DFS. To me the real find would be an upgrade of Collins that is on-par with the talent of the 2nd team, whoever that might be.

3 upgrades from last season and we are so much better. 3 more upgrades and continued improvement and we are contenders.

I've been a Castle fan from last season, but, his presence and skills have been beyond my expectations. 2nd night of a b2b, but, that was the best inaugural defense of Steph Curry anyone could hope for.

Hope is now in the room. That's my takeaway from this season thus far.

[CGD]

A few points:

-Spurs should definitely push for the playoffs. A quarter of the season done so far, 1 east game played, and we're at 9-8. That's already a fringe playoff team. And yes, losing in the first round would be way better than having a higher pick even in a very good draft. This team and this core needs to be playing important games ASAP. Which is why I hope we can also get a good run in the in-season tournament, as these are pseudo-important games.

-I agree with the others. While you don't really want to fix what's not broken, I also think that it's more important to get your supposed core for the future much needed reps now. So I think the SL should be CP3, Castle, Dev, Sochan, Wemby, and the closing line-up would be almost identical just depending on some adjustments and match-ups. Although I see the reasoning of Scott, the bench would still be much better with Barnes and Champ anyway. Why not make your starting 5 even more dangerous, given that that's your core for the future.

-Re: keldon's absence. I kinda felt bad, I didnt even notice he wasn't playing until he was shown around the 3rd quarter. If as fans, we don't really notice his any positives from him, how much more the other FOs? While your packages seem somewhat realistic aside from MPJ, I think Keldon even has less value in the league now. His biggest value in a trade isn't anywhere near about his skills on the court (even for tanking teams tbh, you'd still want players that you can build upon) but rather his contract solely.

Good take