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I would pick one with a late first or early second as it usually takes Centers 3 years to figure things out.
IMO, the team is done trying to find its savior from the draft, so folks should focus less on thinking we’re going to get some super talent in upcoming drafts. The Spurs’ only hope for contention going forward is from developing its current core or from future trades and free agents. The purpose of the draft now is to get playable guys around the current core.
I would pick one with a late first or early second as it usually takes Centers 3 years to figure things out.
johni broome maybe?
It may very well be that as the game gets quicker and the court gets more spaced out, fatigue will become a bigger factor and stars will only be able to play limited minutes to prevent injury. I'm not sure whether it's coincidence or not but it sure seems like more stars have been getting injured recently.
Add this fact to new cap rules, and rather than a 3 star + role player team, it may be advisable to have either 2 stars + excellent role players or even 1 star + multiple above average well-fitting pieces with significant depth 2-8/9. Houston seems to be making this work although their "star" has a hard ceiling given his physical limitations. But if you replace Sengun with Wemby on that roster, Wemby-Smith-Eason-Amen-FVV-Brooks-Sheppard-Whitmore-above average SG not named Jalen Green looks like a young up and coming contender. Interestingly, Houston is also making it work with several limited shooters in their lineup so it may be a model to learn from.
mcneely hasint been impressive...Thought he would be perfect next to victor,Not so sure now.
Team building under the new CBA is a very interesting topic indeed.
It does seem like the 3-star(i.e. 3 max contracts) contender is going to be something of the past because of the aprons, so teams will have to find more creative ways to construct contenders. Having only one true star and building around him with top level role players seems a good idea until these role players start being paid as stars, which is something we've seen. This makes contending windows shorter and different iterations of contending teams the norm, which is why we should not think about timelines - there will be many timelines. Finding these players to surround your star with will be the most important part - getting someone on the way up, instead of paying through the nose for an established one - as we've seen how these guys can fetch almost as much as a star in the trade market.
It'll be very important to keep maximum flexibility at all times and not find yourself in a box you can't get out of like Milwaukee is currently. Players would come, hopefully help win a le, then they'll get paid and move on and so should the team. Easier said than done, obviously, but consistently hitting on a combination of younger players rapidly improving and older vets who fit well, would be the winning formula. Of course, this is nothing new or ground breaking, what is new is that the likelihood to build a team with a 4-5 year window might not be possible.
There's another thing to consider. The backlash against the huge penalties in the latest CBA might lead to some sort of relaxation in the future. Say, supermax deals counting against the cap as a regular max or similar might help teams like the Spurs who build from the draft, especially with Wemby already in place and hopefully staying for a long time.
I'm getting to like Kasparas J
He has some skills, shooting, playmaking, passing
A tall guard who can organize our second unit.....
If we cannot get Egor, we should definitely consider Kasparas......
The NBA purposefully put the second apron in to kill superteams. I doubt they walk it back. It will make for a more compe ive product, with players going to less desirable franchises if they want to get paid. Small market teams will not need to look over their shoulders and be looked at as developmental squads for large market teams.
People about anything new, but teams and fans will adjust eventually.
I get the logic about compe iveness but historically the NBA has thrived on rivalries, dynasties and superstars. They’ve been losing viewership rapidly for years and with the new super lucrative TV deal coming there’s no doubt they’ll be under pressure to make changes.
They won't be able to make changes until this CBA deal expires, it just started.
Rivalries are better if teams are more balanced and superstars get more hype if they play on less stacked teams that are still contenders.
Dynasties are good only in retrospect, but teams like KD Warriors make everything pointless.
Lakers-Celtics rivalry in the 80s pretty much killed the league and if not for MJ, who knows what would've happened.
Another thing is that there's no actual animosity between players these days. Back in the day everyone loved to watch rivalry games because it always got physical and it was obvious the teams don't like each other.
Nowdays there's not a single matchup where that's the case. Everyone's best buddies with each other.
Viewership is dropping because it's 2024 and availability is awful.
Next season nationally televised games will be split between three providers, even if you buy league pass you get local blackouts, not to mention actually attending games.
Subpar regular season matchup between injury-riddled teams costs way too much, even for average seats. They don't want people to go to games regularly, especially the younger generation.
Also, the East is awful, there goes a lot of viewership.
There hasn’t been a repeat champ in a while, and the second apron didn’t cause that. It also does nothing to stop rivalries. The product itself has been bad, but the NBA seems to have addressed this by allowing more defensive contact. Scoring had been just way too cheap before the ASG last year when they quietly rolled out the new guidelines. Superstars will still be superstars. In fact, their s om maybe magnified with fewer of them clumped together on teams.
It's kind of funny that OKC is going to be one of the teams most hurt by this CBA. Don't see how they're going to keep SGA + Holmgren + Williams much less their high end role players like Caruso, Wallace, Dort, and Hartenstein.
Yeah that's the hope, especially if Wemby ends up hitting his projections. Seems like this could be the era where one ultrastar could have an extreme outsized impact vs what he would have been historically when superteams were the norm.
An update on various picks using Vegas odds:
Projected records:
EC:
1) Celtics: 62.5
2) Cavs: 58.5
3) Knicks: 53.5
4) Magic: 52.5
5) Bucks: 47.5
6) Heat: 45.5
7) Pacers: 42.5
8) Sixers: 38.5
9) Hawks: 35.5
10) Bulls: 30.5
11) Pistons: 29.5
12) Nets: 27.5
13) Hornets: 27.5
14) Raptors: 22.5
15) Wizards: 16.5
WC:
1) Thunder: 57.5
2) Mavs: 51.5
3) Warriors: 50.5
4) Suns: 50.5
5) Rockets: 49.5
6) Nuggets: 48.5
7) Grizzlies: 48.5
8) Wolves: 45.5
9) Lakers: 44.5
10) Clippers: 44.5
11) Kings: 40.5
12) Spurs: 37.5
13) Pelicans: 29.5
14) Blazers: 24.5
15) Jazz: 19.5
Spurs' own pick:
Spurs are unlikely to make the playoffs with a playoffs odd at +490. Right now the pick is projected at #11 with a 10% lottery odd of being in the top4. It's noteworthy that Spurs winning or losing an handful more of games will have little impact on the pick: Spurs wining 40 games will keep it at #11 and Spurs wining only 32 games will make it #10.
Hawks' pick:
Hawks pick is projected at #10 with a 14% lottery odd of being in the top4. Hawks are projected to make the play in (-270) but not the playoffs (+156). If they qualify for the playoffs through the play in, their pick will be #15 or #16. If they fail their play in tournament, the pick will likely be #10 or #11.
Bulls' pick (top10 protected):
Right now, the pick is projected at #9. If they finish with the 9th worst record, lottery odds give about a 3% odd of the pick being #11 and going to Spurs.
Hornet's pick (top 14 protected):
It's highly unlikely Spurs got that pick. Spurs will get that pick if Hornets make the playoffs and their playoff odd is currently at +880.
TLDR:
Spurs should get 2 or 3 picks between #10 and #16. There is something like a 15 to 20% lottery odd to have one of these pick turning into a top4 pick.
Last edited by Bruno; 12-02-2024 at 12:05 AM.
Bruno, any insights early in the season on the French prospects for this year? Mainly regarding Essengue, Traore, and Penda. It looks like Traore has fallen off quite a bit trying to adjust to a higher usage role in a better league. Essengue has gotten off to a solid start, and Penda looks solid to me.
They can’t. Dort and Caruso will likely be out the door first. I’ll be interested to see if Presti is smart enough to churn assets, like moving Williams for picks to lighten the cap with young players again. Wallace has two cheap years after this one.
This is also why I don’t want us to trade OUR picks. Once we get going, we’ll need to replace vets from time to time with cheaper draft picks.
Traoré is quite struggling especially with his outside shot and against the better teams.
The best french teams are the ones playing the Euroleague (Monaco, ASVEl and Paris). Traoré played one game against each of these teams. His FGM/FGA for theses games: 1/9 against Monaco, 1/12 against ASVEL and 1/11 against Paris.
He has always that ability to drive to the basket with a good court vision but he hasn't been able to step up and adjust his game. His defense is also subpar.
I'm not sold on Essengue. He has for him to be very young with a great combination of size and mobility and to have a good feel for the game. My issue is that he is doing nothing really well right now. He is so far of being a productive player skill-wise and body-wise. Drafting him would be a huge gamble.
Penda is an older prospect and doesn't have the same upside than Traoré and Essengue. He is a good glue guy in french league doing a little of everything. He is the kind of role player every team like to have. If he is there in the second round, he would be a good option that will turn into a great option if he is fine with being stashed.
Viewership is down because TV as a whole is down.
It's going to be a lot easier for OKC to keep their core than the wishcasters on this website want to believe. SGA will become supermax eligible (35%) after this season but it won't kick in until 2027, JWill will get a rookie max (25%) , and Chet will likely extend for less than a max (probably around 21-22%). Chet and JWill's extensions will kick in as Hartenstein and Dort roll off.
A lot different than the TWolves who had KAT on a supermax (35%), Gobert on an over vet max (31.2%) to start, but declining, and Ant on a Rookie Supermax (30%).
OKC's big 3 will account for roughly 80% of the cap whereas Minn's big 3 was set to count for 93% of the cap this season. And OKC has done a good job of continuously replenishing the ranks (Wiggins Topic, Wallace, Jones all on cheap rookie deals through 2028 for Wallace and 2029 for Wiggins, Topic and Jones). Ajay Mitc is on a two-way currently, they'll probably try to get him locked up. Hartenstein, Dort, and Caruso can be replaced if not resigned.
Talk about wishcasting. Chet is a much harder type to get than JWill. He will get 25% or he’ll threaten to walk if he has an agent with a pulse. The Minny thing is to my point: they didn’t keep that together, and STILL will struggle to keep pieces like Naz.
That is not fully correct. You get players cheap for 4 years, unless you stupidly let them get to year 5 and unrestricted free agency. If Cason gets an extension, it will kick in after year 4, summer of 2027.
I’m not saying OKC is going to drop into the lottery, but their le window is much shorter than people think, like two years. Guys that you casually roll off like Caruso and Hartenstein directly addressed specific shortcomings that they had in the playoffs last year, and when they’re gone, OKC is right back to 2023, subpar rebounding and post/rim defense against sturdy bigs. They’ll be a second round out, tops.
Chet is extension eligible this summer, at which time he'll have spent over 50% of his career on the injury list. But even if he does sign a 25% rookie max, OKC will still be in a vastly superior position to Minny.
They can keep Wallace for relatively cheap (12% of the cap in year 5) through 2028 is the point. OKC can keep their big 3 for awhile, and has the draft capital to supplement that big 3 with incoming cheap deals or talent via trade, no matter how tight you close your eyes and say a prayer otherwise.
If they keep Wallace until 2028 without an extension or new contract, he becomes unrestricted. He was drafted in 2023, and is cheap thru 2027, not 2028. That fifth year (2027-2028), if they don’t reach an extension or new contract and he signs the tender, it’s considered a one year contract, and they cannot trade him. You’re one year off on this, my dude.
The fifth year is still relatively cheap (12% of the cap) - meaning at a minimum, they can keep him relatively cheap through 2028… which is what I wrote. I’m not a year off, you’re just confusing an extension with having him cost controlled until 2028. At which point, they can just let him go (if they haven’t traded him by then). He’s their backup PG, not the critical member of their squad.
You don’t let them get to year five, ever. They can walk, unrestricted.
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