Spurs trade ideas

[scott]

Devin's a role player too. I'm not even sold Vassell is better than Champagnie given what a defensive turnstile he is. Murphy doesn't shoot nearly well enough to be worth two unprotected firsts and third lightly protected one.

94th percentile shooter in Crafted Shooting Quality Index. Shot 40% from 3 two years ago on 6.3 3PA/g, 38% last year on 7.8 3PA/g. Off to a slow start this year, but don't be fooled by recency bias. There is a reason NOP has him as an untouchable.

[scott]

Why not Markkanen?

If we get Fox, we could use a 6th man combo guard who can play with both him and Castle, three man guard rotation would be enough.
Jeremy, Champagnie, one of Cam/MPJ/Markkanen and a rookie for wing rotation.
Valanciunas or a similar reliable backup for Wemby if Bassey doesn't show he can play consistent minutes without fouling out.

If we're going with Fox route, no way Fox/Castle/Jeremy would be able to start together, it would be Champ and a trade acquisition.

You know I love Lauri... and I also love Fox... but getting them both would be extremely expensive and they're both 27. I'm not sure I want to blow our entire pick load on two 27 year olds each costing 30% of the cap. Vic's extension will kick in the 2027-28 season, when Mark will have two years left on his Max deal and Fox will have 3 years left.

[Dejounte]

27 year old is not old breh. It’s prime time as we should be sending Wemby to prime time right now to get that much needed experience

[Bruno]

I think Fox is more a target for this summer than at the trade deadline. Fox will give a shot this season to Kings with DDR, but, if it doesn't work, he might say to them this summer that he likely won't re-sign with them. Kings will face the risk of losing him for nothing in 2026.

In this scenario, Spurs will have more leverage if they have enough cap space in 2026 to sign Fox at a max contract. Spurs might not want to trade at this deadline for contracts that goes beyond 2026 for that reason.

[Dejounte]

Why not Markkanen?

If we get Fox, we could use a 6th man combo guard who can play with both him and Castle, three man guard rotation would be enough.
Jeremy, Champagnie, one of Cam/MPJ/Markkanen and a rookie for wing rotation.
Valanciunas or a similar reliable backup for Wemby if Bassey doesn't show he can play consistent minutes without fouling out.

If we're going with Fox route, no way Fox/Castle/Jeremy would be able to start together, it would be Champ and a trade acquisition.

those guys are all hoopers. Hoopers find a way to make it work

[Davidicus]

I hate to say it but agreed here that Champ makes Devin expendable for someone like Fox. Usage switches from Vassell to Fox and Champ fills the void as a role player. And Devins age and contract has to be attractive for Sac - could still be compe ive now and aligns with their Murray future.

The question is what on top of DV gets it done. Tre Jones makes the #s work, and then how many picks depends on how ugly this gets with Sactown imo.

[LeBowen]

I hate to say it but agreed here that Champ makes Devin expendable for someone like Fox. Usage switches from Vassell to Fox and Champ fills the void as a role player. And Devins age and contract has to be attractive for Sac - could still be compe ive now and aligns with their Murray future.

The question is what on top of DV gets it done. Tre Jones makes the #s work, and then how many picks depends on how ugly this gets with Sactown imo.

It's been said already and Bruno just repeated it, but Kings won't have much leverage in the summer because they'll have an unhappy player on expiring deal.

If we're talking about a trade happening before the deadline, maybe taking Huerter would add some value for the Kings because they want to get rid of him.
Devin+Tre for Fox+Huerter.
Kings swap returned and three more picks on top.

Then we send Collins and seconds for Valanciunas, Keldon and FRP for Cam Johnson. Would be a legit roster right away.

Right now we're at $149M with $35M being taken by Keldon and Collins, two negative players.
Devin is the highest earner on the roster and his $29M have contributed to more or less nothing due to injuries, was a big factor in just a couple of games.
And we're still above .500.

Turn those $64M into legit contributors and we're a second round exit team already.

[baseline bum]

94th percentile shooter in Crafted Shooting Quality Index. Shot 40% from 3 two years ago on 6.3 3PA/g, 38% last year on 7.8 3PA/g. Off to a slow start this year, but don't be fooled by recency bias. There is a reason NOP has him as an untouchable.

It was one year. His other three are 38%, 38%, and 34% so far. For that much draft capital I want an absolute elite three point shooter. I don't put much stock into NOP thinking he's untouchable after they thought so little of Dyson Daniels. I'd love to have Murphy but only if I can put some protection on those two Spurs and Hawks picks.

[baseline bum]

I don't have a DunksandThrees subscription, but I'm willing to bet that Devin was not 75th percentile in Defensive EPM last year. He's gotten worse on defense every year he's been in the league. EPM tracked pretty closely with CraftedPlusMinus (which we can pull up for free, which is why I use it a lot), which has Devin at a -0.8 last year, which would place him as a below median defensive player (which is supported by every other defensive metric available).

I'd also be very skeptical of the notion that Devin rated out as a 75th percentile Offensive EPM player last year, since his predictive EPM only ranks him as 70th percentile (which lines up with his Crafted OPM).

Also... Devin is always coming off an injury.

Found an article saying Devin was 21st percentile crafted DPM for 23-24; too bad CraftedNBA doesn't give their crafted stats for previous years.

https://lastwordonsports.com/basketb...would%20become.

[Spursfanfromafar]

I don't have a DunksandThrees subscription, but I'm willing to bet that Devin was not 75th percentile in Defensive EPM last year. He's gotten worse on defense every year he's been in the league. EPM tracked pretty closely with CraftedPlusMinus (which we can pull up for free, which is why I use it a lot), which has Devin at a -0.8 last year, which would place him as a below median defensive player (which is supported by every other defensive metric available).

I'd also be very skeptical of the notion that Devin rated out as a 75th percentile Offensive EPM player last year, since his predictive EPM only ranks him as 70th percentile (which lines up with his Crafted OPM).

Also... Devin is always coming off an injury.

I don't have access to EPM archives. But luckily had a similar discussion with SpursBills in May this year. And here's the post -

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...1#post11069685

OEPM - 82nd percentile and DEPM - 72nd percentile. Both are good numbers. That was roughly the equivalent of a Mikal Bridges last season as well.

Vassell's latest injury, again IIRC was a metatarsal related one. Its a very fragile injury and requires close care to recover.

He has started in his first game since coming up and signs add that he will get back to the levels shown last year. Let's see.

[baseline bum]

Why not Markkanen?

If we get Fox, we could use a 6th man combo guard who can play with both him and Castle, three man guard rotation would be enough.
Jeremy, Champagnie, one of Cam/MPJ/Markkanen and a rookie for wing rotation.
Valanciunas or a similar reliable backup for Wemby if Bassey doesn't show he can play consistent minutes without fouling out.

If we're going with Fox route, no way Fox/Castle/Jeremy would be able to start together, it would be Champ and a trade acquisition.

Don't really see the point for Utah to trade Markannen now; the whole reason was to help their tank this year.

[scott]

I don't have access to EPM archives. But luckily had a similar discussion with SpursBills in May this year. And here's the post -

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...1#post11069685

OEPM - 82nd percentile and DEPM - 72nd percentile. Both are good numbers. That was roughly the equivalent of a Mikal Bridges last season as well.

Vassell's latest injury, again IIRC was a metatarsal related one. Its a very fragile injury and requires close care to recover.

He has started in his first game since coming up and signs add that he will get back to the levels shown last year. Let's see.

Yes, those are great numbers... but sorry I don't believe them, because they fly in the face of every other metric available to us, including the DARKO numbers in the post you were quoting. In no way am I suggesting that you are purposely being misleading, but I suspect maybe you got numbers you were looking at mixed up, because there is nothing else we can point at to suggest Devin was a top 30% defensive player last season.

[LeBowen]

Don't really see the point for Utah to trade Markannen now; the whole reason was to help their tank this year.

Markkanen trade suggestion is my own 20131 pick.

Thinking out loud Fox is a player who can't be stopped at getting to the rim, something we lack the most. Yeah, our shooting is questionable at times and we definitely need at least a couple more legit shooters, but most games we lose happen because our offense grinds to a halt since right now noone is reliable at getting to the rim.
Castle has hit a rookie wall, Keldon is a tunnel vision driver and noone else can even get into the paint.

Wemby obviously wants to play on the perimeter more and it's already hard enough to guard him. If we get the fastest player in the league to attack the rim, there's no defense against that with good spacing around them.
Fox is at 61% in the paint so far this season, 167/272 and is 6 FTA per game. While playing with a center who rarely takes 3s and DDR.

Fox/Champ/Cam/Wemby lineup would be absolutely deadly. We start Castle or Jeremy depending on the matchup until one of them becomes a consistent shooter.
CP3 is why I don't see it happening before summer. He seems to be fully invested into this roster, I doubt PATFO would relegate him to the bench and 15-20mpg. Sounds dumb, but that's how it is.
It would be great if he accepted a bench role and stayed one more season.

[scott]

Markkanen trade suggestion is my own 20131 pick.

Thinking out loud Fox is a player who can't be stopped at getting to the rim, something we lack the most. Yeah, our shooting is questionable at times and we definitely need at least a couple more legit shooters, but most games we lose happen because our offense grinds to a halt since right now noone is reliable at getting to the rim.
Castle has hit a rookie wall, Keldon is a tunnel vision driver and noone else can even get into the paint.

Wemby obviously wants to play on the perimeter more and it's already hard enough to guard him. If we get the fastest player in the league to attack the rim, there's no defense against that with good spacing around them.
Fox is at 61% in the paint so far this season, 167/272 and is 6 FTA per game. While playing with a center who rarely takes 3s and DDR.

Fox/Champ/Cam/Wemby lineup would be absolutely deadly. We start Castle or Jeremy depending on the matchup until one of them becomes a consistent shooter.
CP3 is why I don't see it happening before summer. He seems to be fully invested into this roster, I doubt PATFO would relegate him to the bench and 15-20mpg. Sounds dumb, but that's how it is.
It would be great if he accepted a bench role and stayed one more season.

But, tbh, I think PAFTO would be perfectly fine starting CP3 and Fox next to each other in the scenario where Vassell is the one who moves out. You know they love their midget backcourts (CP3/Tre minutes this season as evidence). Not suggesting this is the wise thing... but it can't be fully discounted. And it would allow you to start Jeremy next to Barnes and have Champ off the bench and run a 9 man rotation with supplemental Tre/Blake/Mamu minutes as needed.

CP3/Fox/Sochan/Barnes/Wemby
Castle/Champ/Keldon/Bassey

[scott]

It was one year. His other three are 38%, 38%, and 34% so far. For that much draft capital I want an absolute elite three point shooter. I don't put much stock into NOP thinking he's untouchable after they thought so little of Dyson Daniels. I'd love to have Murphy but only if I can put some protection on those two Spurs and Hawks picks.

You mean like Lauri Markkanen?

Lauri career 3P%: 37.6%
Trey career 3P%: 38.7%

Bookmark this for later.

[Dejounte]

If Fox gets here, Paul plays the same amount of minutes. Paul keeps saying he came to SA to play.

[Obstructed_View]

If Fox gets here, Paul plays the same amount of minutes. Paul keeps saying he came to SA to play.

Paul will be on a contender by the deadline, tbh.

[Dejounte]

Paul will be on a contender by the deadline, tbh.

Nahhhhhh

[Spursfanfromafar]

Yes, those are great numbers... but sorry I don't believe them, because they fly in the face of every other metric available to us, including the DARKO numbers in the post you were quoting. In no way am I suggesting that you are purposely being misleading, but I suspect maybe you got numbers you were looking at mixed up, because there is nothing else we can point at to suggest Devin was a top 30% defensive player last season.

I looked at EPM numbers the whole season last year (even wrote a scraper to periodically download data as sorting / searching wasn't available). The whole year Vassell's numbers were good. It was very good roughly this time last year - see here for e.g. - https://www.reddit.com/r/NBASpurs/co...er_his_career/

But his numbers regressed by the end of the season and of course he got injured too.

So I am not mixing anything up, for sure.

I also know for a fact that NBA metrics folks rate EPM as the best advanced stat out there. LEBRON being next. Crafted NBA has a great interface and is a good site but I need to be convinced that their estimates are better than EPM. So far, no.

The larger point however is that Vassell can be a good two way player and there is still 3/4ths of the season to be played to see if he can get there again. He isn't a lost cause as you make out to be.

[scott]

Nahhhhhh

The contender will be us.

[baseline bum]

You mean like Lauri Markkanen?

Lauri career 3P%: 37.6%
Trey career 3P%: 38.7%

Bookmark this for later.

It's different with a bigman IMO. Huge value in drawing opposing PF/C out to have to guard the three point line.

[John B]

Paul will be on a contender by the deadline, tbh.

CP3 will definitely be pushing for an upgrade of the team’s roster as he is committed to winning. But that’s a very short backcourt for both to be in the court together. That means a bigger/defensive Champ at 3 instead of Vassell makes better sense. Vassell becomes the odd man. While Castle gears up for his 2nd year.

I like Fox/Castle/Wemby for the future. That spells Big 3 all day. I might need to change my avatar

[Dejounte]

CP3 will definitely be pushing for an upgrade of the team’s roster as he is committed to winning. But that’s a very short backcourt for both to be in the court together. That means a bigger/defensive Champ at 3 instead of Vassell makes better sense. Vassell becomes the odd man. While Castle gears up for his 2nd year.

I like Fox/Castle/Wemby for the future. That spells Big 3 all day. I might need to change my avatar

You haven’t been paying attention at all tbh. Paul is committed to playing, not winning. He’s getting that here.

[scott]

I looked at EPM numbers the whole season last year (even wrote a scraper to periodically download data as sorting / searching wasn't available). The whole year Vassell's numbers were good. It was very good roughly this time last year - see here for e.g. - https://www.reddit.com/r/NBASpurs/co...er_his_career/

But his numbers regressed by the end of the season and of course he got injured too.

So I am not mixing anything up, for sure.

I also know for a fact that NBA metrics folks rate EPM as the best advanced stat out there. LEBRON being next. Crafted NBA has a great interface and is a good site but I need to be convinced that their estimates are better than EPM. So far, no.

The larger point however is that Vassell can be a good two way player and there is still 3/4ths of the season to be played to see if he can get there again. He isn't a lost cause as you make out to be.

I'm a huge fan of EPM, and would use it primarily here if I paid for D&3, so need need to convince me there.

But sorry no, I don't believe for a second that Devin rated 70th percentile in D-EPM through his first 22 games last year, considering the following things:

1. Through Dec 21, Devin had played in 22 of the 68 games he played all season (25%)
2. The Spurs were 4-23 and giving up 122.2 pts/game and were one of the worst defensive teams in the league
3. Devin finished with a DBPM of -0.9, a DRtg of 118, a CraftedDPM of -0.8, a DDARKO of -0.9, and DDRIP of -0.4, and a -0.97 D-LEBRON. Either somehow D-EPM got completely divorced for all of these other metrics (highly unlikely) or Devin was somehow an elite defender on one of the worst teams of the league and then he got worse while the rest of the team got better the remaining 75% of the season (even less likely)
4. If we compare the EPM data we have for free, it roughly tracks with CraftedPlusMinus and LEBRON data. 2024-25 EPM for Devin is 74th percentile O-EPM, 12th percentile, D-EPM, 58th percentile overall EPM. Compare that to Crafted for this season: 74%, 8%, 36% and LEBRON: 73%, 21%, 48%.

The very idea that Devin was a 70th percentile defender 25% of the way into last season just does not compute.

But since you brought up LEBRON, and we can get those stats, here is a plot of Devin's career LEBRON progression, both with values relative to every other player in the league, and shown as a percentile of the league. This confirms what we've been saying: he's a very good offensive player (close to top 25% in the league) but pretty poor defensive player and has gotten progressively worse throughout his career.

[scott]

It's different with a bigman IMO. Huge value in drawing opposing PF/C out to have to guard the three point line.

Centers aren't guarding Lauri.

Murphy is a 6'8" and plays combo SF/PF, just like Lauri, though Lauri has a few extra inches.

Dude... it's perfectly fine to just admit you aren't familiar with Trey Murphy.

Edit: Murphy also plays defense. 81st percentile in D-EPM vs. 16th percentile for Lauri.