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SpursGenius has chosen a squad.
SpursBills laid things out perfectly for anyone who wants to take the time to go beyond their boneheaded preconceived notions of what Fox while obviously never spent anytime watching him or digging into the analytics.
Fox is an average shooter (53rd percentile in CraftedNBA ShootingQuality Index), and an average defender. If you pair him next to Castle, you'll absolutely need to pair up with sharpshooting wings. Champ and Barnes aren't bad in the short-run, but you'd want to upgrade that eventually.
Fox excels at creation, penetration and getting to the line. While he's an average on-ball defender, he is a disruptor on the defensive end, rating 94th percentile in deflections and is an above average TO creator.
In regard to his shooting, he's about as efficient from Wemby from 3, but his 3PAr% is only 31%, compared to 49% for Wemby this season. It would be an interesting PnR pairing because Wemby likes to Pop as much as he likes to roll, and Fox is a masterful penetrator. It would be deadly. If Fox could hone his lob skills, it would be even deadlier.
SpursGenius has chosen a squad.
Dude, not everyone that doesn't agree with you regarding Fox is OK with our "trash" or loves Branham, tbh.That's a very MavKrew member way of arguing, tbh. Just flat out lying about what the other person is saying, just because they don't agree with you.
If my memory serves me right, you were also in the "let's trade for Trae Young" camp, and most have come to terms with the fact that not trading for Young was the right move. You seem a little too impatient for my liking. I'm all for being agressive with moves, but for better fits than Fox, tbh.
Which better fits? As in I can understand arguments for not wanting Fox, but people are way too optimistic about potential trade targets.
If we're talking legit starters or better, these are the names that could be obtainable this or the next summer and would be realistic targets for us:
MPJ, Booker, Fox, Herb, Cam Johnson...and that's about it if we're talking players I personally would like to acquire and think will be available.
Other than that we can just try and scavange around. Whether it be finding disregarded players with potential like we did with Champagnie and Bassey or getting underrated players for cheap like Celtics did with Derrick and Porzingis.
But it doesn't look like many of those will be available.
We can also wait for someone like Edwards to become available, but the asking price would be way too much and it would require a complete roster overhaul.
I asked this same question when we didn't get Markkanen and I kept saying it's slim pickings around the league...well now it's even worse.
We can just hope Castle accelerates his development and we get a legit wing in the draft.
I'd say that the most likely scenario will be combining those two picks and trading up to get the player we want.
It's useless to try and predict which players will be available 6 months, a year from now. Just a week ago there was some serious buzz about Giannis getting traded, it wouldn't surprise me if in the offseason the rumours re-open, after another predictable Bucks elimination in the playoffs.
The Spurs are in prime position to be patient and wait for these type of players to be avaible. There's no need to go out of your way to trade multiple picks and give up a max slot for third tier players like Fox, tbh.
I said realistic targets, not trading the entire roster minus Wemby for a 31 year old Giannis.
And as someone who follows stuff around the league I don't buy the "it's pointless to predict" take. You can go back to similar discussions this summer and I said that Fox is the point guard to look out for because Kings are treadmilling and he's got only two years left on his deal. It's fairly easy to predict which players will be available for a fair price if you take contract duration into the account.
People said the same about Hawks picks that are worth gold when I said I have no issues trading those for Markkanen and here we are.There's no need to go out of your way to trade multiple picks and give up a max slot for third tier players like Fox, tbh.
Those Hawks picks are by the day and month looking more and more like a mid 1st round pick and yet here we all still are treating it like a lotto pick. So the draft is out of the question.
Until proven otherwise, marquee FAs choosing SA over big markets is still a myth to me. So FA market is not an option.
Someone said here before, I think in the Markannen thread, that we should think of Wemby as having multiple phases. You don’t necessarily build and look forward for 1 window only and that’s it. You try to win in different windows like what happened with Tim in his 1st ring, 2nd-3rd rings (a more balanced team around him with young dudes and vets), 4th ring where he was still the best player in the team but had off nights here and there, 5th ring (beautiful game), etc etc. Ofc not exactly this, but this archetype. Obviously the counterarguments to this are either 1. Blowing your load too early and hemorraghing your future or 2. Not striking when the iron is hot/Wemby gets hurt chronically and we’re uber ed.
I get that people want the perfect types of players to trade for but in reality, who are those players? At some point, you have to make a move, especially when you have such a generational talent.
Another loss or two, and the ATL pick drops to #10. There’s a big gap between the ty EC teams at the end of the playoff picture, and the EC teams in the lottery. There’s a big bunch of mid WC teams there in between at the end of the lottery that have way better records. ‘By the day’, it looks better for us. ATL is on a spiral, having lost 3 in a row. They have Minny next.
The side SpursGenius chose was thinking that SAC should accept our trash for Fox. That's what his proposal is, and it's not realistic. This isn't that hard to understand (but apparently it is for you).Dude, not everyone that doesn't agree with you regarding Fox is OK with our "trash" or loves Branham, tbh.
If my memory serves me right, you were also in the "let's trade for Trae Young" camp, and most have come to terms with the fact that not trading for Young was the right move. You seem a little too impatient for my liking. I'm all for being agressive with moves, but for better fits than Fox, tbh.
And maybe you should check your memory, because I was never in the pro-Young camp. I was in the "Young will cost more than people want to pay" camp and then eventually in the "I don't want Trae at the cost" camp. Similarly, I'm not even in the Fox camp (which I'll be posting momentarily) - I just think it's hilarious that every time any good player comes up, most people ultimately fall into these camps, neither of which are helpful to the true analysis of whether a move it worth it.
Pretending like we can get Fox for our trash and some SRPs isn't helpful to the discussion, because that's not what the price would be. A more appropriate statement for this camp would be "I personally wouldn't give up more than Keldon, Collins and a SRP" which is the same as saying "I just don't want Fox" - which is fine.
Likewise, just saying false statements like "Fox is an extremely bad defender" isn't helpful to the conversation because it simply isn't true.
Ultimately, as I'll post in a moment, I actually agree with you that I don't think Fox is the guy I'd go after, certainly not during the season, because there are some other questions I still want answered.
That was me about the Phases. Duncan had championship stages to his career: The Twin Towers Era, the Big 3 Era, and the Beautiful Game Era. Yes, a lot of those players crossed over into multiple windows, but those were all teams built totally differently around Tim.
This is an arguement for not being overly concerned with perfectly aligning with Wemby's "Timeline" but I think it's also a good argument for why you don't want to go overboard and do something like trade for Fox and Markkanen. Those two moves would cost us A LOT, probably beyond our excess draft capital and into our own, leaving us pretty bare.
There is a nice balance to be had.
Dev is a shot dependent player who is fairly useless if his shot isn't falling and is totally movable.
Dev and Tre plus the Kings choice at the ATL picks/swaps, tear up the 31 swap with the Kings, plus second rounders in 2025, 2028 and 2030 since they don't have second rounders in those years.
Spurs should absolutely try to add an All-Star caliber player while Wemby is on his rookie deal. You can worry about salary later, but while him and Castle are cheap is when you should make the addition. We definitely need some dribble penetration to really open up the offense and Fox fits that profile. He‘s also not a liability on defense.
One guy can always go to the bench, since we will need a 6th man or ideally 2-3 super subs. People need to understand that there are only a small amount of All-Star players under 30 who will become available.
Of course trading for such player always depends on the price. I‘d like to somehow keep our core together while making the addition. If I had to pick between Markkanen and Fox, I‘d pick Lauri.
Ultimately, my tune might change on Fox in the summer, but I'm definitely out on him for a move now (not even sure he's truly available now). There are just too many questions around what we already have to make that kind of move, notably two big questions, which happen to be of extra importance relative to discussing Fox: 1) Is Devin him? and 2) What is Castle?
Fox will almost certainly cost Devin or Castle (Kings fans seem to want both, which ain't happening). The good thing about Castle is that he offers flexibility and could theoretically play very well with Fox or Devin (though the pairing with Devin is a little more theoretical as we've seen more of Castle as a ball handling SG than a lead PG). If Castle could be a true lead PG, and Devin could prove consistent and healthy, then I'm not sure I want to use assets to disrupt that pairing - I'd rather save my chips to make a move for the ideal wing archetype (Markkanen, Murphy III, Cam Johnson, Jalen Johnson, MPJ are names that all fit, IMO - not all will be available, and they all carry varying costs).
A Fox-Castle pairing is easier to envision because we've already seen Castle in this role and it's easy to understand what he brings and what needs to be developed. SpursBills laid it out in his post, and I echoed. You'll need to match these two up with sharp shooting 3&D wings. Champ and Barnes are okay for now, but you'd want to upgrade those. If Castle develops into an average shooter, you still need those types of wings because Fox is only an average shooter. But your backcourt defense is improved over having Devin in there.
A Fox-Devin pairing lets you play Sochan, who can pick up some of Devin's defensive shortcomings with his perimeter defensive skill, and Devin adds a lot more spacing versus Fox-Castle. I think this actually be one of the best pairings for Devin, honestly, because a lot of ball handling and playmaking would be taken off his plate and less reliance on him attacking the rim, and he'll be able to be more of an opportunistic slasher going towards the rim while putting his jumper to great effectiveness.
A Castle-Devin pairing, which we all assume is the default setting, carries all of the unknown variables that I'm hoping we get answers to this season. Can Devin become more consistent? Can Castle function as a lead PG for extended periods of time? I'm hoping we get some significant Castle-Devin-Champ-Barnes-Wemby lineup minutes to see how it looks. So far we've only seen 4 minutes of this lineup and 5 minutes of the lineup with Bassey in for Wemby, 4 minutes of it with Collins in for Wemby. I need to see more Castle-Dev-Champ-Barnes.
Honestly, the player who fits the least in any of these scenarios is Sochan, who I have been really been pleased with this season and am starting to like a lot, but I think his best role might be as bench glue-guy if Castle is going to a major player for us. If Castle develops into an average shooter, pairing him with Devin is Jeremy's best pathway to be a starter, because I've lost any hope Jeremy will develop into an average shooter.
It's most likely going to cost us, at a minimum, Castle or Dev, 2-3 FRPs, and their swap back. I'm not concerned about the contract - that is easy to work around, especially right now. I am more concerned about what other deals this might crowd out.
I do think we need to start moving some picks, because while "there is no rush" - the are starting to come due. I don't want to punt them for anymore 20131 picks, because those are also less valuable as trade chips. With that said, I'm not even sure we need to make a move for a bona fide "tier 1" star (whatever that means and whomever is in that category). A player of Fox's caliber (like a Markkanen) is a good fit next to Wemby, especially if Castle develops like we hope. But Fox specifically still leaves you having to fill the same holes you have now on the wings... I'd rather get a Malik Monk-type player to be my 3rd guard, and "blow my load" trying to get someone like Markkanen.
He would demand 50 mil, he is not worth it. Pass
If the Spurs trade Dev they're getting out of 135M in long term commitments with Barnes (18M), Zollins (20M), Wes/Mal (8.5M combined) coming off the books at the end of next season. Spurs can easily afford to pay Fox 50M a season in 2027 and beyond.
Atlanta is the definition of mid, which is why it’s getting harder for me to be excited about the possibility of a high pick. You’re right in the sense that they can spiral anytime now, but if history is an indicator these ers always find a way to be a fringe playoff team.
Love SpursTalk: top 30 players aren't worth 40M like Trae Young and Lauri and now top 20 players aren't worth 50M per season like Fox. Top 10 players will quickly start getting 60M per year and are therefore aren't worth it either.
One thing that definitely needs to be dispelled, however, is the notion that Fox is anything like Trae or Dillingham. Trae Young is a tiny, no-defense (literally a multi-year 1st percentile CraftedDPM player), outside shooting PG, who does (to his benefit) do well to set up teammates. 49% of Trae's shot diet is 3s, and while he is crafty enough to get around his defender and get to the rim, he does not have the strength to drive into the paint and collapse the defense like Fox does. Fox is quite different. Only 31% of his shot diet are 3s, and he is a master of getting into the paint and scoring. And he's essentially a neutral defender who is excellent (94th percentile) at using his length to create deflections. They are completely different archetypes.
That was a good point you made in that thread. On the draft capital, if the pick isn’t high anyway, Im not gonna lose too much sleep on another Wesley or Branham. At some point, BWright has to shoot a shot whether he likes it or not.
Shai could come available and SpursTalk would offer up Keldon, Collins and the CHA pick but only if Shai agreed to only $35MM/season.
Since we’re in the topic, I would LOVE for DBook to be Wemby’s 2nd banana. He’s grown into me in the olympics after hating on him for years. But that aint happening so we have to settle for less.
Yeah but at some point we'll need those late FRPs to add talent to the roster on the cheap. Of course, we still need to do a good job on those picks, but you're hoping you can get useful rotation players who won't cost a lot. Otherwise, you're picking up bargain bin min-contract vets like Phoenix, which is a struggle.
What’s the package you were thinking for Fox anyway?
When the news broke out it had to be Dev or Steph and fillers. And then either Atl25 or Atl26 plus one more FRP down the road. That’s what I had in my mind.
Like I posted above, I'm personally not too keen on making a move for Fox right now... but if I were told that the Spurs FO had a hard on for him and we're definitely making that move, then my best proposal would be:
Devin
Tre
Branham
Best of ATL/SA 25
Best of ATL/SA 27
Tear up the 31 Swap
for
Fox
Huerter
Tre and Branham are just salary matching for Huerter. Tre is an expiring they can probably flip for an SRP, or they just let expire in the offseason. This saves them about $11MM on the cap next year versus Huerter.
For Fox they they a young promising player (Dev), two FRPs with upside, and out of their swap obligations. I think that is fair considering the (lack of) leverage they'll have with Fox.
But... like I said, I wouldn't actually want to do this deal right now, this is just the most I'd be willing to pay if PATFO called me up and told me to make it happen within reason. Honestly, SAC might ask for more...
That is honestly a fair offer that even I would be hesitant to make. If they ask more then they can go ahead and themselves
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