where is jeremiah fears at.....Anyways would probably take fland and mcneelyI was curious so I took the top 30 of Tankathon's Big Board and sorted them by 3pt%. Left side of the image is their BB order, right side is sorted for 3pt%. (I still like Demin and McNeeley, but falling off from Traore and starting to like Karaban now)
Looks like Fears reclassified (like Flagg did) and will still be 18 at the time of the draft so Tankathon doesn't have him in their mock or Big Board yet. ESPN has him in their mock (I believe) but I don't have a subscription so I can't see. He's shooting 30.6% from 3pt so he's be in the 15th spot in my image.
I see a few red Flaggs on this list. It’s amazing that more than one HS hype kid has both an awful 3G% and an awful TS%. Flagg, Bailey and Edgecomb all fit that description.I was curious so I took the top 30 of Tankathon's Big Board and sorted them by 3pt%. Left side of the image is their BB order, right side is sorted for 3pt%. (I still like Demin and McNeeley, but falling off from Traore and starting to like Karaban now)
Oh, and don’t fall in love with seniors. I like Karaban, too, with a second rounder.
Good work with the list, but it's slim pickings if we're talking 6'7 or taller players who are above at least 30% from 3pt.
Goes down to:
Karaban
Demin
McNeeley
Riley
Knueppel
Bailey
CMS
I excluded point guards because we just can't afford to have rookie/sophmore point guard combo if we're to compete.
Maybe if someone projected in top10 falls to us or they really like someone, but other than that I'd rather avoid guards.
Demin and Bailey won't be avaiable with our picks, meaning it's down to McNeeley, Riley, Knueppel, CMS and Karaban.
Good thread about Karaban:
https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/CzUu4OhVTf
No his shooting from all distances actually is rather unique for a player who’s legitimately 6’8 (even someone like Doug McDermott actually measured at 6’6, and he still had a 10-year NBA career despite being a bad defender) and he’s been doing it since he was a freshman. He was ahead of one-and-done lotto picks like Gradey and Anthony Black in box plus-minus.
Also it’s pretty easy to make the case he contributed more to UConn’s winning over the last two seasons than someone like Clingan who played about half as many minutes as him.
So again, production-wise he has looked like a potential lottery pick from his very first season and what has been keeping him in school is people’s ‘eye test’ saying he looks like he should be bad on defense (because he is white and not jacked or jumping out of the gym) even though he has started from day 1 on the 2-time defending champs and is currently averaging 5.5 blocks per game.
It’s going to be like Zach Edey (who I’d assume is the ROY favorite currently) where once a player is staying in school even though they were already productive enough to have been a 1st round pick, what more can you expect than for them than to efficiently dominate the compe ion - Karaban currently has a 27.2(!) box plus-minus - as the best player for one of the best teams in the country? It’s going to be hilarious if he literally becomes the only player not on a John Wooden UCLA team to win 3 straight national les and people are still going “but he’s 22.”If Karaban is the main reason UCONN wins their third straight this year, it would be foolish not to take him in the top 15 of the draft this year.The 6’8 NBA guys who can spot up were worse shooters in college and got better in the NBA as they continued to hone their craft, whereas Karaban is starting from a much better point. The guys who shoot like Karaban in college (again this includes that he is 60+ percent on twos for his career so he hurts you when you run him off the line or try to put a smaller player on him as well) tend to be shooting more than just spot-up threes in the NBA.
Also I meant exactly what I said and there are a lot of guys who get billed as 6’8 prior to the NBA but end up being an inch or two shorter. Go through the standings and tell me exactly which teams have 6’8 spot-up shooters, and I assure you half or more of the teams are lacking one.
Starting at the top of the league, the undefeated Cavs have Georges Niang in their rotation. Niang is shorter than Karaban and was not nearly as good a shooter in college, but serves as a great lower-end comparison as he went 50th in his draft and is currently 16th among 2016 draftees basketball-reference’s VORP. Clearly Niang knows how to play enough to not be a massive defensive liability despite his lack of quickness/athleticism, and Karaban through 2 games has blocked half as many shots as Niang’s highest shot-blocking season in college.
You don’t bet against winners. Duncan was old when he was drafted at 21. Ginobili was came to the Spurs at 25. Just terrible takes from your usual suspects because of their preconceived bias against age.
Derrick White is one of the most coveted players in the league right now and in a re-draft he SHOULD be drafted top 10, but you’ll have guys like ex talk crap about him because of their rigid philosophies on what types of players should be drafted in the first round.
https://www.tankathon.com/players/co...-derrick-white
Back in the day when Derrick was drafted the whole ST was ting on him (and yes, me included ) because we passed on Jonah Bolden and Jordan Bell who were ST favourites.
We can all have opinions but some perspective would be nice. Us, armchair GMs aren’t the sharpest.
1997 and 1999 drafts, respectively. You didn’t have any examples from the 1970s? Because they’d be equally relevant to those. It’s not that day, any longer. My bias is founded in examples. Duarte, Podz, Jacquez were older draftees who showed out as rookies, then the bed. It’s also shared by most GMs. I’m not the outlier here, you are, but go on, tilt at that windmill if you must, Quixote.
Of the North Carolina kids, I like Drake Powell over Ian Jackson based on watching them live.
Powell has more length (although he is only listed as 6'5" - will have to wait on official measurements), fits more in that 3&D mold, really nice athleticism. Jackson, on the other hand, looks more like the Lonnie Walker archetype: hyper athletic, slightly smaller, looks to get up shots.
Based on the teams needs, I actually wouldn't hate the idea of taking them both. Powell fits our longterm need for wings, whereas Jackson could be a backup SG (which we also very much need) candidate. With that said, I don't expect either of these guys to make a huge impact their rookie seasons unless they end up on bad teams and get lots of playing time. BKN and UTA both have incoming picks in that range, so that could be a possibility for those guys to have unexpected big rookie seasons.
How is it “shared by most GM’s” when those three players you listed were drafted in the top 20, which contradicts your inherent point of GM’s believing older rookies will the bed after their first few seasons. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have drafted them that early, dumbass. And, you can say there are busts in any sub group of players so it’s a ridiculous point to begin with. I listed SPURS players because we’re on a Spurs forum. There have been examples of older players who have succeeded in the NBA, such as White, Jalen Williams, Trey Murphy III, Herbert Jones, Tyrese Halliburton, Tre Jones, DeAndre Hunter, Cameron ing Johnson… I could go on. This isn’t a hard concept.
I like it.
They were ultimately failures. GMs that stick their necks out like that get burned. Not a great support pillar for your argument.
I’m also referrring to 22 and 23 year olds. There is some margin for 21 year olds, but the other two drastically under perform their draft slots. I also don’t have a problem using second rounders for said players. You structure the contract as a 2+1, and if they nthe bed in year two, as is very common, you cut them loose. As a FRP, you have to pick up the year three option after year one, and you have no protection against the year two swoon. I’d be delighted with Karaban at #31.
Read this, and go all the way to the end. It shows the performance to draft slots by age year.
https://www.theringer.com/2024/11/26...ect-age-rookie
Last edited by exstatic; 12-31-2024 at 05:24 PM.
tbh, this isn't really relevant to the Spurs, who will happily pick up a 4th year option after a 2nd year ting of the bed
If the CHI pick hits, do we really think the Spurs will carry another 3 rookies? I have my doubts, even if they move on from Tre, Blake, Maliki, Mamu, and Sidy. Has to be a consolation trade coming in that scenario.
Draft Saraf and leave him in Euroleague for 2 years
I feel like it's questionable we even carry 2 FRPs, tbh
The asset preservation strategy will be interesting to watch this draft. The risk of having multiple picks in a single draft is that they independently get devalued (like what really is the difference between picks 12 and 15?), and or a trade partner will inflate their pick return demand.
I would not be mad if they do the 20131 again this draft, or, preferably turn 12 and 15 into something like 8.
We have a ton of needs. We gain a ton of talent this draft. This is, after all, the legendary draft. The once in 50 years draft.
We need shooters, a PF, backups at about every position. We are in need of a quality Center when Wemby is playing sharp-shooter from 3-pt land.
You're right about our needs, but from the next season onwards we're expected to actually compete. Get a top6 seed and make some noise in the playoffs.We need shooters, a PF, backups at about every position. We are in need of a quality Center when Wemby is playing sharp-shooter from 3-pt land.
Can't do that without some more proven players. Developing too many players at once is counter-productive.
I personally don't want another point guard or big. Why? Point guards take the longest to develop, having rookie/sophmore point guard combo would most definitely not work.
Whoever gets to be Wemby's backup will be limited to ~15mpg. We need a reliable veteran who won't complain about playtime, will always be ready and will consistently deliver what's needed in his role.
If we can get two legit 6'7-6'10 wings who can shoot, then I'm all for it. If not, just consolidate the picks and get the best wing available or trade away one of those picks for a proven player.
If somehow we win the lottery and I’m the GM, I take Harper 100 times out of 100 and never look back. He’s like a much more finished version of Castle, complete with 3 pointer. IDGAF that he’s a PG. He can just flat out play basketball.
You're right about our needs, but from the next season onwards we're expected to actually compete. Get a top6 seed and make some noise in the playoffs.
Can't do that without some more proven players. Developing too many players at once is counter-productive.
I personally don't want another point guard or big. Why? Point guards take the longest to develop, having rookie/sophmore point guard combo would most definitely not work.
Whoever gets to be Wemby's backup will be limited to ~15mpg. We need a reliable veteran who won't complain about playtime, will always be ready and will consistently deliver what's needed in his role.
If we can get two legit 6'7-6'10 wings who can shoot, then I'm all for it. If not, just consolidate the picks and get the best wing available or trade away one of those picks for a proven player.
Obviously. My bad for not making it clear that my post doesn't apply to Spurs lucking into a top5 pick, then you take the BPA.
We'll likely be in let's say #12 to #20 range and at that point we should go for a better fit instead of taking some more swings in the dark.
Wasting another FRP or two on random players like Primo or Samanic would be terrible considering there are so few good wings available and we need not one, but multiple legit wings.
I wouldn't say Harper is a PG at all, and his skill set is completely different than Castle.
In a perfect world that I think would be our best outcome but will see what our picks are so just looking at our roster. One things is at PG we got 3 Guards but two of them are coming off contracts Tre and Paul so I am pretty sure 1 will be let go or traded. I am cool signing Paul to another year if we are able to draft Fears, Saraf, or Fland, who can do G League there first year.
Next season we got Barnes and Collins signed for just that season at a total of 37 million so they might be used in a trade for a seasoned PG or very good starter? I think we can all agree that Collins won’t be long here so definitely need to get a backup big I am like Wolf or one of the Ivisic Twins.
Next season you also have decisions on do we want to deal Keldon and maybe throw in Blake and Wesley? Or do we just kick the can down the road for another year?
Also, we got 3 G League contracts we can just not sign - Minix, Ingram, and Duke
So I don’t have a problem drafting new guys even 3 or four or trading for some hopeful upgrades as long as I can bring in better talent
Maybe we keep Blake and jettison Wesley while letting go of Harrison and keeping Barnes? Just spit-balling here.
Really? A lot of the analysis I hear is it's very top heavy, so a really strong top 5, but after that nothing too out of the normal.
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