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I'm getting to a similar place. I'd have Demin over Edgecombe and Jakucionis in that second group. I think it's fairly flat from 9-20, so if we get a pick in that range I don't think it matters as much where it falls.
After catching up a little with the draft I've changed my opinion on quite a few guys. My impression is this draft isn't nearly as good or as deep as originally thought, which is an opinion a lot of pundits have already voiced, but I was surprised at how difficult it was to fill up a top 15, or a top 20. The 11-20 range where the Spurs are likely to operate in seems specifically barren, so when it comes to the Spurs needs I'd say I'm not taking anyone who can't shoot if their ceiling is a role player, the only players who can't shoot that I'd draft would be ones with star potential.
So, anyway, my top 4 is Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Edgecombe. After that in some order: Tre Johnson, Jaku, Demin, Fears, Newell. I consider this group to be outside of the Spurs range as things stand.
Then, for the possibly available players I like McNeeley, Knueppel, Ian Jackson and Will Riley. I'm also irrationally high on Drake Powell, Joson Sanon and Rasheer Fleming. Beyond that it's pretty bleak. Still early season obviously, some players will definitely rise up.
I'm getting to a similar place. I'd have Demin over Edgecombe and Jakucionis in that second group. I think it's fairly flat from 9-20, so if we get a pick in that range I don't think it matters as much where it falls.
I'm low on Demin, I don't buy that shot at all. Don't see him being able to create separation against good athletes. Playmaking is great and he's tall but other than that I think I like Jaku's game more. If he hits, he's absolutely ideal for 2020s ball though.
Edgecombe is polarizing and obviously his shot isn't there yet, but he's grown on me after watching a couple of games. His athleticism really pops, he's super active on defense, he can pass better than advertised too. I'd back him to keep improving. He violates the prototypical dribble-pass-shoot wing standard, but he'll be picked very high no doubt.
Last edited by BG_Spurs_Fan; 01-02-2025 at 02:23 PM.
i dont understand the knueppel stuff at all
I don’t understand Bailey still being in the top 5. His stats, both counting and analytical are not good,and he apparently has issues finishing against college defenders,even though he’s 6’10”.
What are people thinking the Spurs do if we end up with no lottery picks coming up? Hornets is definitely not converting, bulls is looking unlikely, and it's very possible both spurs and atlanta make the playoffs. Do we then shift from building in the draft to packaging one or both those picks (or future picks) and a couple of pieces for a high level player next season, or do we stay the course and hope there's good talent in the 12-16 draft range? Not familiar enough with the class to know, but curious.
Why? He's not going to be a star, but he has a quick picture perfect shot, plays defense, can put the ball on the floor and can even playmake on a very decent level. I know he's had games where he hasn't been shooting well, especially in some marquee match-ups, but this is exactly why he might be available in the 10-15 range. I wouldn't be worried about his shot at all. I can see him as a Max Struss type of player, which would be great value at 10 or so.
I would be very disappointed if we got a top 4 pick and took Bailey. He seems like he'd be sooo frustrating to have on the team. He's has great size and athleticism, but he stands tall when dribbling, he has trouble driving into traffic, and makes bad decisions. He can shoot mid-range and can dunk in the open court.
At some point, elite size and athleticism still matters to teams. How do his stats compare to the Thompsons? Amen is certainly working out.
If we're going to trade those picks for veterans, I hope we do it now while there is still some variance in the picks (which adds value). Once they are locked into the late teens, they'll be worth significantly less.
he seems more stubby than long, not particularly quick. i dont see how he's going to defend at all at the nba level. he's an alright shooter but not really a specialist. he does have some degree of creation/passing chops, but he doesnt seem like a lotto pick type to me.
We're going to trade those picks for 20132 ones because RC recently had another Euro trip and likes what he saw.
Not to mention that Malaki and Blake have another year on their deals, we don't want to take minutes away from them.
While I definitively agree that using a lottery pick on Wembanayama's backup would be a waste, because this player would limited to 10/15mpg, it would be fine if Spurs got a pick in the 18 to 20 range.
I think the Spurs FO (like most FO) only see a subset of the guys as draft able at a given slot / area. If they have 3 top 10 picks, and can get their #5, #6 and #9 (e.g, Kasparas, Fears, CMB at 10, 11 and 18 I'm sure they'd keep the picks).
If their top is gone, and they think there isn't much value in adding 3 rookies this year, I could see them moving a pick for something like the Minny package from some other team that they want to bet against in the 2030 ish window.
Lakers, are you all in for LeBron's last year? 2030 and 2032 for #11 and a second round pick?
Warriors, are you going to honour Steph with help?
In other news, Tankathon has just updated their mock, now has Fears at 14 (on the board now at 16).
Means there's an option for the lazy PG comps in this draft...
https://www.tankathon.com/players/co...ras-jakucionis
I think one of those 4 would be a good start, Harper / Kasparas probably require us to move up in the lottery.
From my perspective it would be a waste because you can never know how a rookie will perform.
There are always solid backup bigs around the league who would deliver exactly what's asked of them in those 15mpg and wouldn't ask for much.
My counter argument is Scoot and Bailey. Both had issues finishing at lower levels, so maybe there’s only so far that size and athleticism can take you. Scoot still finishes like crap (53% 0-3ft), and while he’s a level below the John Wall and Westbrook tier, he’s got pretty damn good pop.
De'Aaron Fox compared to Jeremiah Fears.
https://tankathon.com/players/compar...--de-aaron-fox
I'd far rather ensure we get a Fears for a single pick than burn multiple picks and players for De'Aaron Fox. But I think Fears moves up into top 8 territory at least. He's flat out a better prospect and Fox went fifth in a kind of iffy draft.
Not sure I've ever heard Scoot referred to as having elite size.My counter argument is Scoot and Bailey. Both had issues finishing at lower levels, so maybe there’s only so far that size and athleticism can take you. Scoot still finishes like crap (53% 0-3ft
I like Fears, but one thing you have to keep in mind is that UK usually had 4-5 absolute blue chippers, and they had to share the ball and split the shot equitably. That’ll hit your numbers. Devin Booker scored 10ppg and didn’t start at UK.
Don’t be obtuse. You mentioned both size and athleticism. One of your examples was Amen. He’s a guard.
Their usage is about the same, with Fears just a tick higher. You could just as easily say Fears doesn't have other blue chippers to draw defensive attention while Fox had Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo. Reality is that Fox just wasn't as good.
With the data that we have halfway through the season, my ranking of those 4 is 1) Harper (top 2) 2) Fears (top 3-5) 3) KJ (Top 10) 4) Fland (First rounder)
Harper is not going to be in our range regardless
I've said enough about Fears already, but I will say that I'm very curious about his combine measurements. His 3 looks so smooth and I think he ends up becoming a very good shooter. I don't see him as a point guard, but I like his pairing with Castle as a stylistic contrast and he provides a lot of stuff that Castle doesn't e.g. rim pressure. Develop him as a third guard for starters and see if he's good enough to replace Vassell. I don't fully trust his steal rate and it's probably coming down in conference play. Some statistical similarities to Collin Sexton's freshman year but he seems bigger, is younger, and plays a lot more physically.
KJ is good, but I actually think he's getting somewhat overrated at this point. His FTR is similar to Fears, but he gets a lot of fouls "unethically" with random stuff like jumping forward on his 3 pointers. We take FTR as a statistical measure for rim pressure/athleticism/physicality, but his attempts at the rim are lower and when combined with how he gets his fouls he seems to play a lot less physically. I do think he'll be great as a secondary initiator and he's a great passer, but I don't think he has the advantage creation potential of Harper or KJ.
Fland I think is actually the best actual point guard of the 4 - makes good decisions, good shooter, good passer, good all around guard, super young. I just don't trust small guards that shoot such a low percentage around the rim. His rim numbers, dunks, and rebounding paint the picture of a small guard who will probably struggle at the next level athletically. I'd probably pass as of now pending conference play.
Yes... I said size AND athleticism, not size OR athleticism. Sorry that words have meaning.
As a very lazy watcher, I'm waiting to see Fears effectiveness off ball (I'll wait until one of the end one season full on scouting videos). He looks so good with the ball in his hands doing a lot, but effectiveness in off ball roles (guard screening, relocation shooting, etc) will be a big component of value on any team where a player isn't a pure #1 player, especially with Vic as the focus point of the Spurs offense.
I still think he's a top 10 prospect, and would be an awesome fit for the Spurs (rim pressure PG paired with shooting big is a fun 2 man combo, as in NY with KAT and Brunson), but I could see a fall to around the Spurs first pick if other teams opt for bigger wings / hypothetical upside (I can see cases for Flagg, Harper (the top 2), Tre, VJ, Kasparas, Demin, Maluach, Queen, someone will take Bailey), and at that point, happens. Could go 3, could go 13.
For a guy who can't shoot, Asa Newell (Georgia PF) remains intriguing.
He's 6'10-11", physical, athletic, has a nonstop motor, a good BBIQ, moves with a purpose, sets picks, runs the floor and has a nose for the hoop down low.
With Wemby moving around and often outside shooting, Newell could be a relentless stabilizing presence inside.
If he could shoot (he's only .658 from the line) he'd be top 3-5 in this draft.
If he falls to where the Spurs likely will be, he's worth a good look.
Watched some Fears. Not super convinced he’ll be able to do that at the next level. Kinda reminds me of Johnny Davis and Malachi Flynn.
One guy that really pops for me right now is Adou Thiero. Like I’ve said over and over, the Spurs are likely to draft for versatility. Adou looks like he fits the mold the Spurs are going for perfectly. He reminds me of GG Jackson.
If I were to rank guys on who are the most likely to be drafted, it would go like this:
1. Adou
2. Karaban
3. Noa
4. Riley
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