Atlanta Hawks 2025 Draft Pick Watch

[itzsoweezee]

Wright has earned the criticism. The team is still terrible, and if not for Wemby we'd be leading the Capture The Flagg race, either by intentional or unintentional tanking.

I haven't seen anyone say the Dejounte trade was a bad one, but rather criticize what we've done with these assets since, which is fair criticism.

And saying "if it yields a lottery pick, it was a better trade than anyone could have imagined" is quite revisionist history - all people have been doing since the trade has been imagining lottery picks

Using the trade as a basis for criticism of wright means disagree with the trade. It’s a clear underlying premise.

And expecting multiple lottery picks out of the dejounte trade is just nuts. I never expected that. Did you?

[scott]

Using the trade as a basis for criticism of wright means disagree with the trade. It’s a clear underlying premise.

I'd agree with this statement, had I ever seen anyone do this. I can't think of a single post where someone is criticizing Brian Wright for the Dejounte trade (though I admit, I have a healthy list of morons on ignore). Can you point me to one? I see people criticizing the job he's done building a coherent roster, which should not be confused for criticizing the trading of Dejounte Murray for picks and tanking for Wemby.

And expecting multiple lottery picks out of the dejounte trade is just nuts. I never expected that. Did you?

47% percent of picks ever year are lottery picks. Considering that the Spurs have two of them plus a swap, even if you expect random variance (which I do when trading for picks beyond a 3 year time horizon), then it is logical to expect at least one lottery pick (in fact there is an 85% chance of at least one of the picks or the swap yielding a lottery pick if you assume random variance). So, back to your statement "if it yields a lottery pick or two, it was better trade than anyone could have imagined" - well, maybe you just lack imagination, because at least one lottery pick is the heavy odds on favorite for the outcome of trading for that package 3+ years out.

[itzsoweezee]

I'd agree with this statement, had I ever seen anyone do this. I can't think of a single post where someone is criticizing Brian Wright for the Dejounte trade (though I admit, I have a healthy list of morons on ignore). Can you point me to one? I see people criticizing the job he's done building a coherent roster, which should not be confused for criticizing the trading of Dejounte Murray for picks and tanking for Wemby.



47% percent of picks ever year are lottery picks. Considering that the Spurs have two of them plus a swap, even if you expect random variance (which I do when trading for picks beyond a 3 year time horizon), then it is logical to expect at least one lottery pick (in fact there is an 85% chance of at least one of the picks or the swap yielding a lottery pick if you assume random variance). So, back to your statement "if it yields a lottery pick or two, it was better trade than anyone could have imagined" - well, maybe you just lack imagination, because at least one lottery pick is the heavy odds on favorite for the outcome of trading for that package 3+ years out.

So you’re saying there was an 85% chance one pick in a three year period would be in the lottery? That seems very different than a high probability that one of the Atlanta picks would be in the lottery. The dejounte trade was in the offseason following the season they went to the eastern conference finals. They needed defense in the backcourt, and while a lot of people thought it was an overpay on Atlanta’s part, most thought it improved Atlanta’s future outcomes. Under those cir stances, yes, I’m surprised if Atlanta’s pick indeed turns out to be a lottery pick.

[Splits]

People who were saying at the top of the year that this team was barely going to win more than 22 games are now ing that the team isn't already a contender. smdh

There were no "people" saying 22 wins this year. The debate was the o/u on 36.5. Quit being an obtuse lying little

[Mr. Body]

There were no "people" saying 22 wins this year. The debate was the o/u on 36.5. Quit being an obtuse lying little

Yeah you're straight up lying.

[Splits]

Yeah you're straight up lying.

People who were saying at the top of the year that this team was barely going to win more than 22 games

Your claim, why don't you quote some of those "people"?

[rascal]

I'd agree with this statement, had I ever seen anyone do this. I can't think of a single post where someone is criticizing Brian Wright for the Dejounte trade (though I admit, I have a healthy list of morons on ignore). Can you point me to one? I see people criticizing the job he's done building a coherent roster, which should not be confused for criticizing the trading of Dejounte Murray for picks and tanking for Wemby.



47% percent of picks ever year are lottery picks. Considering that the Spurs have two of them plus a swap, even if you expect random variance (which I do when trading for picks beyond a 3 year time horizon), then it is logical to expect at least one lottery pick (in fact there is an 85% chance of at least one of the picks or the swap yielding a lottery pick if you assume random variance). So, back to your statement "if it yields a lottery pick or two, it was better trade than anyone could have imagined" - well, maybe you just lack imagination, because at least one lottery pick is the heavy odds on favorite for the outcome of trading for that package 3+ years out.

There were quite a few people in here who didn't want to tank for Wemby as they saw the 14% chance not worth tanking for. Some even held on to the belief that the Spurs have never tanked and it's in their culture to not.

[scott]

So you’re saying there was an 85% chance one pick in a three year period would be in the lottery? That seems very different than a high probability that one of the Atlanta picks would be in the lottery.

For clarity, I'm saying that if you take any 3 picks in the far out future, and assume random variance of the full range of outcomes, there is an 85% chance of at least one of those 3 picks being a lottery pick. This is just mathematical. If there is a 47% chance of coin landing on heads (47% picks being lotto picks), then there is an 85% of at least one of three coin flips being heads.

What you seem to think I'm saying is that one of the Spurs or Atlanta would be a lottery pick over that 3 year stretch, but that is not correct. Those odds would actually be 98% if (and this is the important part) you assume random variance of the full range of outcomes.

When we traded Dejounte to Atlanta, I (and I think probably the majority of folks here) expected them to at least yield one lottery pick because 1) the picks were 3+ years away when random variance starts to kick in for almost all teams, but certainly all teams who aren't established long-term contenders (currently, that list would be OKC, BOS, maybe DEN and that's probably about it); and 2) because ATL is historically a franchise, putting even more credence into the random variance expectation. It's the same reason people are excited about SAC30 Swaps and MIN31 picks.

The dejounte trade was in the offseason following the season they went to the eastern conference finals. They needed defense in the backcourt, and while a lot of people thought it was an overpay on Atlanta’s part, most thought it improved Atlanta’s future outcomes. Under those cir stances, yes, I’m surprised if Atlanta’s pick indeed turns out to be a lottery pick.

I dare to say if you went back and pulled up the thread of that trade, you'd be in the minority. But if the expectation was that none of these picks would be lottery picks, we should have traded them away a long time ago for something better than a late FRP (definitionally, pick 15 or later).

Have you found a post of anyone criticizing Brian Wright for trading Dejounte yet?

[scott]

There were quite a few people in here who didn't want to tank for Wemby as they saw the 14% chance not worth tanking for. Some even held on to the belief that the Spurs have never tanked and it's in their culture to not.

Some people believe in Angels. That fact is also not really relevant to the discussion we are having, but thanks for chiming in.

[rascal]

Some people believe in Angels. That fact is also not really relevant to the discussion we are having, but thanks for chiming in.

I believe in angels, I'm not an atheist.

[itzsoweezee]

For clarity, I'm saying that if you take any 3 picks in the far out future, and assume random variance of the full range of outcomes, there is an 85% chance of at least one of those 3 picks being a lottery pick. This is just mathematical. If there is a 47% chance of coin landing on heads (47% picks being lotto picks), then there is an 85% of at least one of three coin flips being heads.

What you seem to think I'm saying is that one of the Spurs or Atlanta would be a lottery pick over that 3 year stretch, but that is not correct. Those odds would actually be 98% if (and this is the important part) you assume random variance of the full range of outcomes.

When we traded Dejounte to Atlanta, I (and I think probably the majority of folks here) expected them to at least yield one lottery pick because 1) the picks were 3+ years away when random variance starts to kick in for almost all teams, but certainly all teams who aren't established long-term contenders (currently, that list would be OKC, BOS, maybe DEN and that's probably about it); and 2) because ATL is historically a franchise, putting even more credence into the random variance expectation. It's the same reason people are excited about SAC30 Swaps and MIN31 picks.



I dare to say if you went back and pulled up the thread of that trade, you'd be in the minority. But if the expectation was that none of these picks would be lottery picks, we should have traded them away a long time ago for something better than a late FRP (definitionally, pick 15 or later).

Have you found a post of anyone criticizing Brian Wright for trading Dejounte yet?

No, that’s not what I think you’re saying. But you are making predictions about the Atlanta picks based on generalized data ( any 3 picks in the far out future, and assume random variance of the full range of outcomes), and not on variables that reflected Atlanta’s specific situation at the time of the trade.

And since it’s not clear, criticizing Wright in a post dedicated to the Atlanta pick is a criticism of the trade. Like I said, that is an underlying premise in this context.

[Strategic]

Rishacher starts with 4 boards in 4 minutes.

[scott]

No, that’s not what I think you’re saying. But you are making predictions about the Atlanta picks based on generalized data ( any 3 picks in the far out future, and assume random variance of the full range of outcomes), and not on variables that reflected Atlanta’s specific situation at the time of the trade.

Yes, and that's how I would evaluate any picks 3+ years out for pretty much any team other than OKC and maybe BOS at this point.

And since it’s not clear, criticizing Wright in a post dedicated to the Atlanta pick is a criticism of the trade. Like I said, that is an underlying premise in this context.

That's just lazy on your behalf. You're basically saying "I don't want to use my brain, so I'm just going to assume that if you criticize Wright in this thread then you are criticizing trading DJM". I mean, come on man.

[scott]

The dejounte trade was in the offseason following the season they went to the eastern conference finals.

FYI, you are also misremembering this.

The Hawks went to the ECF in the 2020-21 season. The Dejounte trade was in the summer after the 2021-22 season, when the Hawks were bounced in the first round. I don't know where our good friend exstatic is (I hope he is well), but I think he'd be one of the first to tell you that the majority of this board felt there was a very strong chance that at least one of these picks would be in the lotto.

[stnick2261]

I remember the talk of 2027 being the best pick because if Trae Young wasn't happy with his teammates, he would opt out and become a free agent. Also that it would only take 1 injury for them to fall apart.

[TXstbobcat]

Thank you Timberwolves!

[BackHome]

Good day today Hawks loose and Bulls win

[cutewizard]

HAWKS KEEP LOSING LOL

[cutewizard]

Give us that high pick

[MannyIsGod]

Philly is five games back of Atlanta in the win column which is imo insurmountable. The Sixers outright suck, even playing their guys.

I don't see Atlanta going worse than 9th. I see the worst eight teams pretty locked in, with Chicago being the 9th worse and probably also tanking. I see no way the Hawks can out- teams that are already in full on mode. They have too many wins stacked up. Those Ws against Cleveland and Boston hurt.

The idea that being 3 games back in the loss column with 36 left to play and 3 of those being head to head is insurmountable is one of the absolute worst takes I've ever seen from you which is really saying something.

Maybe Philly doesn't catch them, but at WORST, they have a 10-20% chance of catching them and I'm pretty sure its closer to 40-50%. Insurmountable is laughably stupid.

[onechance87]

jalen johnson listed day to day....Could be back soon rather then later.Was hoping he was out awhile to give philly and bulls
a chance to pass them up.They dont want to give us a lotto pick for sure

[spursparker9]

5 straight loss. you Hawks

[mystargtr34]

FTH

[Mr. Body]

The idea that being 3 games back in the loss column with 36 left to play and 3 of those being head to head is insurmountable is one of the absolute worst takes I've ever seen from you which is really saying something.

Maybe Philly doesn't catch them, but at WORST, they have a 10-20% chance of catching them and I'm pretty sure its closer to 40-50%. Insurmountable is laughably stupid.

Brother if you think this was the worst take then you truly have for brains. Stop with the hyperbole you ing dope.

And I already said Philly might catch them, you little imbecile.

[rascal]

we need the bulls to pass them up in the standings.But they look like they getting worst as well sitting colby white as welll.

Forget the Bulls, they are one of the teams ready to tank the season.