I wouldnt give up a single first for a dude who doesnt play defense and we can get for free in free agency in one year.
Living up to your username there
For sure. He’s not bad, but when I say meh, I kind of mean in context of everyone calling him a star and being willing to give up 3-4 firsts and pay him 50M+ etc…just seems like a lot.I wish we had a guy we could call "meh" because he's only putting up 25/5/6
Here's SAC lines this season. They've got the one lineup without him that I previously mentioned that is really killing it, but the two main Fox lineups are no slouch. Kings are 11th in the NBA in overall NETRTG (+2.6).
However, to your point, the Kings are +1.22 with Fox on and +4.80 with him off. I imagine this is a large part of why the Kings may view him expendable (there was talk of that being possible before today). But, I think it's important to remember that just because a team is better off without a player doesn't necessarily mean the player is bad - it just may not be the ideal fit. And it's not like the Kings are bad when Fox plays (I'd be really concerned if they were a net negative with him on the court and a positive with him off)
I'd say take a look at those DARKO and LEBRON charts. There's always a lot of context in the counting stats, but the advanced analytics usually tell a pretty good story.
You get him on the team, take care of any surgeries needed, shut him down to recuperate, have a healthy Fox / Flagg / Wemby next year.
wouldn't really call fox no defence tbh..
Ive seen them - and in previous years I think hes been a lot better too. His numbers look good this year, but it’s been off if you’ve watched him IMO. Could just be a soft quit though amongst other things.
I still am in the camp of caution is warranted. He’s not enough IMO that SA can be cavalier here. They will need every extra draft pick and cap space etc…to really add to the team more if they do this. So cost/details will matter and I won’t be mad if SA doesnt get him if SAC plays hardball.
But I also see the appeal and think its worth a *calculated* swing here (meaning no Wemby, Sochan or Castle and no more than 3 firsts with one of those firsts being a softer one)
If the spurs offload Vassell's salary and picks for Fox, then give him a max, do they have enough to make a run at KD in summer of 2026 or is that an impossibility?
We'll never really know at the end of the day if no deal comes to fruition, but I just hope we don't end up passing on Fox in order to preserve a pick that turns into another Malaki Branham.
Give up Vassell = Yes
Give up Castle = No
I maybe one of the few in here who believes Castle is going to be a very good player down the line despite having a bad jump shot. He already impacts the game on both ends of the court and has ridiculous strength to finish in the paint and to back down guys which very few players possess. I'm not down with trading him. If the Spurs trade him then they will regret trading him a few years down the line when he becomes a star.
Great question. We could definitely do if we didn't extend Fox but had an agreement to resign him using bird rights after we signed KD, but there would be risk there. Assuming we would want to avoid that (and immediately extend Fox this summer on a 30% max), then our summer 2026 cap table would look like this:
Cap: $170MM
Wemby - $16.8
Fox - $51
Keldon - $17.5
Castle - $10.0
Champ - $3.0
Sochan - $20 (est)
2025 Rookie - $8
2026 Rookie - $8
Total = $134.3
Cap Space: $35.7
If you can get off Keldon, you can take that up to $53.2. Anything you get Sochan extended for under $20 would add dollar for dollar to that space.
KD will be eligible for a starting salary of up to $59.5
Edit: as it currently stands, the Spurs only have $74MM committed in 2026-27 (Vassell, Wemby, Castle, Keldon, Champ), so up to $96MM of effective cap room. Obviously some of that will go away with draft pick holds, extending Sochan, etc.
I mean any pick can do that, so I get it, doesnt mean that you give up 4 firsts. Theres still value and risk/reward (as you know). What does your model suggest is fair value for Fox?
3 Unprotected FRP, 1 Unprotected Swap, 1 Highly Protected* FRP (71 Comp Points) is what my model spit out. (*Highly protected would be lotto protected, as an example)
So depending on how you value Vassell, not too far off from what I originally threw out (Vassell + CHI pick + SA25 + SA27 + rip up SAC swap). Of course I'm kind of counting on our own picks not being too great (assuming Fox is enough to get us in play-in this year and it being in the 20s in 2027), which is why I include them instead of the ATL picks.
Since our SA25 and ATL25 are both in the lottery (currently) and side by side picks… do you think they would go for the worse of both picks (to hedge if one of them gets a lucky ping pong ball)?
Kinda this. I’m having pre-buyers remorse (that’s a thing, I’m sure) over losing Castle. I really think that kid could be special in a couple years time.
This is kinda why trading the 8th pick was stupid. Imagine if we had another rookie who we could pass off as “young talent.” Also why blowing the bran ham Wesley primo Luka picks was so bad.
Newest Kings Beat podcast mentions that Fox has multiple health issues. A bad finger, plus a really bad pinky that needs surgery in the off-season, a messed up sprained thumb that might be worse than is public, plus a bad glute that has crept up his lower back.
Dude sounds like the walking wounded
Got it - If it were worse of ATL/SA 25 and 27 I’d be good with that.
Just watched Vassell's post-practice interview and he really hesitated answering the question of whether or not he's going to the All-Star game to support Castle.
Wondering if the Fox trade news is affecting this. He might not be a Spur by that time.
It's so surreal to actually have a possible trade in the works. I'm setting myself up for expecting something more along the lines of adding Jalen Hood-Schifino.
LOL
THESE KINGS HOMERS
One of the hosts claims a fair return STARTS at Castle + Vassell + Sochan + 2 first round picks (at least 1 ATL if not both) + tearing up the Kings swap
Hoping B.Wright isn't that B.Wrong
I know it’s not popular to be anti big trades but this one makes me a little nervous. I would be pretty pissed off if Castle was in a deal for Fox.
Well, if I'm the Spurs that is certainly going to be my first suggestion. But if I am the Kings GM I'm asking for it to be the best of and I'm not accepting the worst of (I'd at least want the ATL pick, because a Spurs team with Fox would project to be better than ATL).
All I can really do is share my opinion on what I think is fair value. That's why I built my Trade Value Model, to try and get a "market price" for players based on objective data. With that said, GMs do terrible, stupid all the time. So I just hope we aren't the ones who do the dumb .
I also think that fans generally overvalue FRPs. This website has a great historical evaluation of the players picked from 1989-2008: https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm The average outcome for players picked outside of the Top 10 is a role player, but a significant portion of the guys picked there are Deep Bench and Replacement level players. We talk about how Branham and Wesley haven't panned out, but that is actually a completely typical outcome of guys picked in the 20s.
Here is another representation of the typical outcomes of picks drafted in certain ranges:
This is why I tend to err on the side of overpaying to get the guy you want now that we have Wemby. You only make a trade for a guy like Fox if you believe he will take you to the next level (a playoff team who will be picking in the 20s). If that is the case, what do I care if it costs me another sub-rotation level player?
Yes, there is a chance that pick may pan out to be great... but that's not proper decision analysis. We need to base decisions based on expected value, and trust the statistics. Just like there is a chance that you may win Powerball, it doesn't mean that playing Powerball is a good investment.
Sorry for the long winded response. I love chatting about this stuff. Asset valuation, especially in the context of trades and team building, is my favorite thing about the NBA and I've spent a lot of my free time thinking and researching this stuff
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