Should have been Heurter + Fox
Last edited by mo7888; 01-30-2025 at 11:28 PM.
At this point, there is likely to be a roughly 1 in 3 chance that the Spurs will leap into the top 4 of the draft, given the Hawks' likely lottery pick and their own.
Would it be worth trading a 1 in 3 chance to get one of Flagg, Harper, Bailey, or Edgecombe for Fox? Something to keep in mind in these trade talks.
Spurs would be idiots to include that ATL pick.
Now, maybe something like their worst first rounder this year, but you gotta keep control of that ATL pick.
I think so if the Spurs can keep Castle and instead move lesser talents like Vassell or Sochan. Lots of supposedly great prospects chosen in the top 4 fail. Scoot, MKG, Wiseman, Simmons, Patrick Williams, Derrick Williams, Zion, Ayton, Bagley, Fultz, Josh Jackson, etc.
Relevant part at 1:30
It's one thing to take big home run swings when you have nothing to lose like the Spurs did in 2022-23, but that's not the case anymore. Now it's about trying to put talent around the kind of star you're likely to never get another chance at having because if you screw up he's gone and you're never getting another Victor. So strike while the iron is hot.
Last edited by baseline bum; 01-30-2025 at 11:27 PM.
I would assume 2025 worse of Alt/Spurs is on the table, along with the Bulls pick.
I mean, I want Castle to be on our off-limits too... but thinking he could be a 25/6/5 guy seems like a stretch. He doesn't have the speed or athleticism to be an elite-level penetrator and it doesn't look like his shot is going to get him there.
However, I do think he can be an All-Star. 25ppg just seems a bit ambitious given Castle's skillset.
Wemby's only actual problem is turnover's (excusing his lack of strength bc he's 21). There's prolly 3 losses you can directly attribute to some inexcusable TOs. Even with that 1 flaw and constant double/triple teams, he's a top 5 player.
Yes, I really want him to get some help on O and I largely agree with your sentiment, except I'm willing to wait if the Kings make Castle plus 1st rounders a requirement.
Castle looks like the favorite for ROY (maybe a heavy favorite- barring injury or a huge jump it looks like its him, Sarr, Wells, Missi, and Edey. Edey and Wells likely steal votes from each other, Sarr shoots significantly worse from 2pt vs Steph, Missi is a nice surprise but no-one is winning ROY in single digit scoring).
A 20y/o, 6'6" and long "PG", reigning ROY with huge D upside and switchability is the centerpiece to any big name that becomes available.
It matters less that he may not actually answer whether he can be a fulltime PG, or if he can shoot, or if his D is oversold.- the age, size & ROY le will do all the heavy lifting.
I guess we have different definitions of very turnover prone and consistently drawing fouls. He didn't play PG last year, now he's in the NBA and he's young. He's gettting to the rack and gets to the line.
For comp:
Castle 20y/o R- 25.5 MP 10.7 FGA 11.9 PTS .485 2P% 3.2 FTA 3.5 AST 1.9 TOV 1.84 A/T
Fox 20 y/o R- 27.8 MP 10.9 FGA 11.6 PTS .436 2P% 2.7FTA 4.4 AST 2.4 TOV 1.83 A/T
So more pts, more efficient, more free throws on less shots and a nearly identical A/T. But Fox didn't take a yr off playing PG.
I want Fox, if Castle is extraneous, trade him when he is likely to have more value this summer. But I wouldn't trade Castle w/ 1sts for Fox because I thinks its very likely Castle is worth 3 1sts this summer, where maybe we get Fox for Castle + salary + 2nds. For maybe Fox finally has surgery on his thumb, is an expiring who needs to be moved to extend, and Vassel + a 1st gets Fox and ROY Castle is the centerpiece to a Lauri trade or get you Naz in a 3-way or whoever else says I want to go win now with Wemby + Fox..
Last edited by Arguendo; 01-30-2025 at 11:44 PM.
If it was a 1 in 3 chance at landing #1 and Flagg, I think there would be a case... but Harper, Bailey and Edgecomb are far from sure things... maybe a 20-40% chance they ever reach Fox's level.
I agree except if they want to take only filler with that pick like Keldon + Zollins. Castle, Fox, Vassell on the same team makes us contenders. I can’t see them doing that.
baseline bum maybe we just need a thread where we piece together YouTube clubs to get the entire movie. It could do some people on this website a lot of good
On the Spurs with Wemby, sure. Wemby will take a lot of shots. And reasonably possible best case scenario, not necessarily likely.
Like, I doubt Fox ever scores 25pts again if paired with Wemby.
But in a Fox #1 role, 23-25ppg on 19-20 FGA is very possible to me with development. Agree he doesn't have the speed or athleticism, but he has the strength and body control and size to maybe make up for it and those all age better.
I think he'll be a very efficient (low-mid 50s% 2pt, and continue to be mid 60s% at the rim) in his prime and get to the line a lot. If he can get that 3% to mid 30s, he's an All-Star
For reference, based off Castle's January #s, he'd average 21.75pts if given 18.9FGA. Fox turned a corner in January of his rookie season, and kept progressing from there. I except the same for Steph, maybe not to the same heights, but maybe he gets there too.
Last edited by Arguendo; 01-30-2025 at 11:57 PM.
Let me give a pointercount: Castle has the size, strength, and athleticism that will be absolutely crucial for playoff success since the Spurs are going to have to be going through monsters like SGA, Luka, Ant, and Amen every year in this conference and will need someone who can make them work for their points instead of being automatic supernova every time the teams match up. His work ethic is supposed to be great and having the strength to finish at the rim in the NBA as well as he does at 20 years old makes me really excited about what he can develop into. Could definitely see him as another Jrue Holiday or maybe even another Alvin Roberston.
I think Castle will be a very good player, I don't want to lose him. But I do pretty strongly disagree that becoming a 25ppg scorer is even within two sigma of his range of outcomes. That's just not his archetype. There are only 14 guys averaging 25ppg this season, only 3 of which are not high volume 3P shooters (5+ 3PA/gm. Giannis, Jokic, Davis... Castle obviously does not compare to those types of players). Last season, again only 14 guys averaged 25ppg, and again only 3 averaged less than 5 3PA/gm (Giannis, Shai and Jokic... Shai has obviously changed his game to include more 3s). Year before that, once again only 14 guys averaged 25ppg or more, and once again only 3 guys did it on under five 3PA/gm (Embiid, Shai, Giannis).
Could Steph become Shai? Sure, maybe. Could Steph become a capable volume 3P shooter? Sure, maybe. But I'd put less than a 5% chance of either of those things happening.
This isn't a knock on Steph at all. But we need to be real here.
I do think he can be an All Star though if he can get that 3P% into the mid 30s
Rich Paul's magic is working.
But before you get too excited, don't forget that everyone thought Donovan Mitc would just walk to New York.
That was mine too . . . yesterday. But all the reporting at this writing seems to be that Castle is virtually untouchable, which means it probably hinges on Vassell.
I'm not sold on Castle becoming Holiday 2.0, but if they are, the thinking would be that he could eventually be something of a Fox replacement if he doesn't work out as expected or once he ages out of his prime.
The problem is, they're a poor fit together, especially considering the lack of surrounding shooting.
Are you're saying it would take a Donovan Mitc type deal to prevent Fox from walking to SA?
We dont even know if mike brown spoke to the spurs mgmt and let them know Fox is a little backstabber…
or…
maybe the opposite and …instead highly recommended him?
has mike brown signaled anything either way?
You probably know better than me. But how different are Harper and Castle as players? To me they kinda have the same prototype. Big guards who aren’t really lead guards but could be passable at it. Both projected good defenders and both have a questionable jumper. Would they be able to co-exist? Or is Harper a bit of an upgrade to Castle?
I think I'll summon SpursBills and Dejounte to answer that one, they are better at the college scouting stuff than I am. I was really high on Harper to start the season and thought he could even contend for the #1 pick - but I've cooled on him a little bit. Not to the degree that I wouldn't take him #2 or anything, but I don't think he's a slam dunk All Star by any means.
FWIW, supposedly Mike and Fox are close. They had dinner together after Mike was fired, and pictures surfaced on the net. Apparently Fox was pretty pissed at SAC for the heat being pinned on him for Mike's firing.
Also FWIW, that Damien Bartling guy (SAC reporter who was the first to suggest Fox could be traded) says that the Kings had deals for John Collins and Brandon Ingram done this summer, and Mike Brown said no because they were low IQ players. Damien says that SAC has too many cooks in the kitchen when it comes to roster building (which aligns with them basically having two GMs and a pretty involved owner). I wonder if the "too many cooks" thing also applies to the Spurs (since we have RC, Pop and Wright).
I'm saying that just because the story is Fox will only extend with San Antonio now does not mean that Fox will only extend with San Antonio in the future. Maybe Fox ends up somewhere else and finds that he quite likes it. What is true today may not be true tomorrow.
Can't see it in the embed but Demar's caption was "Me talking to Fox!"
So the idea that Vassell sucks today, may not be true tomorrow. Got it.
I kid, of course. Thanks for clarifying!
I would love for Vassell to not suck tomorrow! I'm ready to convert to the Church of Devin! LORD SHOW ME A SIGN!
The Spurs should be signalling that Wemby and Castle are the players who are completely off limits. Fox has given the Spurs some leverage and they should use it to keep Castle. Kings can get one of the 2025 picks, depending on the rest of the package.
I do think the Spurs have the motivation to get a deal done before the trade deadline. The 2025 picks will greatly lose value after the lottery if neither hits. Right now, they at least have the potential to be top 4 and people with a gambling mindset who don't understand odds might overvalue those picks. Spurs should just pretend they are begrudgingly including Vassell to try to keep the ATL 2025 pick and get a deal done. Fox is a decent enough player who is a borderline all star with no major injury red flags.
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