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Re: Donovan Mitc . The difference is that was more on NY than Mitc . Between the trade and free agency NY got Brunson. That would be like if the kings traded Fox somewhere else and next offseason we trade for Halliburton.
You mean like the people on this message board?
Good post.
I think what could help the Spurs (and I think Jake Fischer is doing the lords work in this regard with his report today) is for some rumors to get floated that we are working on another deal. Let SAC know that they aren't the only game in town and this boat may sail on without them... though we can't overplay that hand, because we wait to maintain the threat that Fox will only extend here. If we play like we aren't interested in Fox, then he may open up to other possibilities and we lose that leverage.
This is a fun strategic game being played out. I hope our FO is up to the task.
Re: Donovan Mitc . The difference is that was more on NY than Mitc . Between the trade and free agency NY got Brunson. That would be like if the kings traded Fox somewhere else and next offseason we trade for Halliburton.
even having cap space in 2026 seems like it was planned for exactly this type of situation as opposed to planning for that specific free agency to arrive. The maximum flexibility really seems to be working in their favor for this exact situation. Now if it was Fox they targeted all long and they CIA Pop’ed this years ago with each move meticulously planned…what amazing foresight.You mean like the people on this message board?
Good post.
I think what could help the Spurs (and I think Jake Fischer is doing the lords work in this regard with his report today) is for some rumors to get floated that we are working on another deal. Let SAC know that they aren't the only game in town and this boat may sail on without them... though we can't overplay that hand, because we wait to maintain the threat that Fox will only extend here. If we play like we aren't interested in Fox, then he may open up to other possibilities and we lose that leverage.
This is a fun strategic game being played out. I hope our FO is up to the task.
this is no way shape form or fashioned guaranteed
20 days from nowYou mean like the people on this message board?
Good post.
I think what could help the Spurs (and I think Jake Fischer is doing the lords work in this regard with his report today) is for some rumors to get floated that we are working on another deal. Let SAC know that they aren't the only game in town and this boat may sail on without them... though we can't overplay that hand, because we wait to maintain the threat that Fox will only extend here. If we play like we aren't interested in Fox, then he may open up to other possibilities and we lose that leverage.
This is a fun strategic game being played out. I hope our FO is up to the task.
"The Spurs FO was not up to the task"
I don’t think this is overly complicated.
Fox has made it clear that he wants to be in San Antonio. I’m assuming his primary reason is to win championships, pro-long his career and the family ties. If that is true he isn’t going to want the Spurs to give away the farm if it means the championship piece becomes more difficult to obtain. Which then suggests, if he is confident that he is the Spurs top target and would wait for him until free agency I think he exercises patience. That then puts the Spurs in a position where they make a decent offer (not including Castle) and are really only competing with other teams that would be willing to offer more knowing they will only likely have him for potentially the rest of this year and next. If you want him now what is the price that is just good enough to be better than anyone else is willing to give for a rental?
If Fox, the Spurs & Wemby are all on the same page this is easy. The risk for the Spurs is something happens injury wise to Wemby. The risk to Fox is he sustains a serious injury.
That being said I don’t think anything happens next week. I think it happens after the draft order is determined.
I’m enjoying the back and forth discussion about Fox’s possible value in a Spurs deal. I imagine it’d be hefty and a bit uncomfortable for a lot of posters but would probably get done.
That said, people who expect him to actually wait until he’s a free agent in 2026 to come to the Spurs (and lose a ton of money in the process) are living in a dreamland. Fox and Klutch are not saying the things they are in a vacuum, everyone knows what it’s about - leverage. Fox wants to get paid and he wants a good spot for his future. He knows Spurs are interested and he’s pushing for a deal now, when it’s very likely that for both the Spurs and Sacramento the summer would be better timing. If the deal couldn’t be completed Fox’s list will easily grow and he’ll happily extend with another team before even thinking of becoming a free agent in 2026. Nobody seriously believes that, it’s just posturing.
The obstacle for the Spurs, should they decide to wait until the summer, is that there might be other teams willing to drive the price up. Houston could easily outbid the Spurs unless we land a top 4 pick. The timing is important for the Spurs and they may need to act quicker than it seems comfortable for them.
I love these discussions, appreciate your take, and admit maybe that was slightly optimistic for reasonably possible high-end. Rounding errors may also be a factor, like is 24.6Pts 25? No, but colloquially yes. Is that within two sigma?
To be clear, I didn't intend to imply Steph could ever be a 25/6/4 guy next to Wemby. With Wemby on the Spurs I'm hopeful that he could become an actual PG, and get to 19.5/7+/4+ All-D guy, and much closer to a #2b O guy then the high-end #2 O guy Fox is. I never meant to imply he'd be anything like 23-25ppg next to Wemby, meant it in the context as "the guy" in an outlier season on a maybe play-in team/prolly lottery team. Next to Wemby, I'd be shocked if he got to 22ppg due to usage and role.
But I like examples for context and obviously a counting stat like PTS comes down to FGA and minutes, which has many variables (health & conditioning, being #1, coach playing you big minutes, etc).
Let's use a hypothetical. Assume a 6'6" 6''9" wingspan lead guard, with plus strength & body control, and average NBA speed & athleticism, whose forte is attacking the rim. A guy that's taken 42% of shots at the rim, finishing at 66.4% before. Assume he develops his mid-range slightly, and has one or two seasons as a near average 3pt shooter. Assume he's the #1 guy on his team and his assists are generated by collapsing the D on him at the rim and he's smart enough to pick up a lot of fouls taking advantage of strength/body control. Assume his plus D and role leads his coach to keep him out there for 35-36+mpg. He's the #1 guy playing big minutes so he's getting 20FGA, getting 6 FTA, hitting .75% on FTs. Could that guy, shooting near average 3% during an outlier season score 20.1pts from the field on 20FGA? I that seems likely.
This players hits 64% @ 7.5FGA @ rim= 9.6pts, 34% on 5 3s= 5.1, 47% from mid @ 5= 4.7, 34% on 1.6 long 2s= 1.1pts. That's 20.5pts on 20 shots from the field + 4.5 freebies=25.0pts. I think Steph could get to 6FTA, 64% @rim (64% today), and 34% 3s for a season or two if he could ever get to 20FGA= highly unlikely, agree there.
The hypothetical is as a miscast #1. Similar to Fox (who's top-end #2, treadmill #1- who's sustained 25ppg for 5 seasons) but the hypothetical guy is a lesser O guy, a #2b, and might hit 25 once or twice at peak usage during an outlier season.
He'll never be Shai (a 33ppg guy-32.5) nor did I imply anything close, but similar body to take the contact, get to the line 6+/per on volume (huge to get to 25ppg, got to live at the line, Steph's at 3.2 FTA @ 10.7FGA, 5.98FTA @ 20FGA), and stay on the floor for D and ball-handling, health permitting.
This could never happen next to Wemby and would require continued, marginal development, and a significant jump in 3s in near league avg once or twice.
But his January numbers put him at 21.75ppg on 18.9 shots, at his current level. And his current rim% and FT rate don't look like flukes, if anything I'd expect him to draw more fouls and finish better moving forward.
Small sample size, 11 games, 13.4% of a single season. But getting that first 40% of your first NBA season under you belt, knowing you belong and are already bigger and stronger than a lot of these guys, and turning it on seems realistic and sustainable, I think that's what January was.
Last edited by Arguendo; 01-31-2025 at 02:11 AM.
I don’t think this draws out to his free agency. I believe there is communication between the Spurs and his agent. The Kings won’t let this run until he is a free agent and get nothing. The owner will make his best pitch to convince him to stay which I think will be futile. From the Kings perspective you do what’s best for your franchise but the offers should become less appealing over time. The Spurs should make an offer that is reasonable given the parameters. Is there any team that is a stud point guard away from a le? I can’t think of any. The Kings have a hand. They know it, the Spurs know it and I think the quietness on the Spurs part is the correct move.
I love these discussions too Arguendo and I appreciate we can have them without calling each other names. It's a good chat!
I see your reasoning, I just struggle to see it myself. In we transported Castle to the pre-Wemby Spurs and let him have all the usage he wanted, I think he'd be less likely than Vassell to lead the team in scoring, just based on his style of play, but I think he'd still be the better player. I could definitely be wrong though. I think his 22ppg in January come not in spite of Wemby's USG, but because of it. You see Wemby as limiting Steph's scoring potential, but I actually see it as increasing it because of the attention that Wemby draws. I personally don't see Steph as an archetype who can be the team leading scorer (which is totally okay, we don't need him to be!). But, I could be wrong. I definitely think a Fox/Castle/Wemby big 3 in the future could be killer. I think Fox's 3P shooting (or lack thereof) is overblown. He isn't a guy who teams are leaving wide open to take 3s, and I think the spacing in the long run will be fine so long as Castle develops into a decent shooter like I think he will.
Great post. I think there is another possibility here that isn't being discussed. If the Spurs land pick #4... maybe they just send that outright to SAC with their own swap and that gets the job done because SAC is in love with the idea of Ace Bailey and Klutch is playing hardball. It might be overly optimistic, but I don't think totally out of the realm of possibility.
What do you view as his archetype?
To me, his archetype is very difficult to say right now except he not a #1 because I've only seen him for 1 season at UConn selflessly doing what was asked as an 18y/o on a championship team & 1/2 a season playing next to Wemby and behind Paul. I know he's big/strong/under control and repeated takes it to the rim (gets to the line better than Maxey, Fox, Ant, Cade, Mitch this yr). And he seems to be a very hard worker. I'm curious to get your comp, like I said I like examples.
Obviously true #1s shape those around him, he's not that. Offensively/scoring on a good team, I doubt he's more than a serviceable #2 but with offsetting D and hopefully creation.
Yeah there are a ton of reasons why a summer deal would suit both teams more (and a couple of drawbacks). For one, the value of ‘25 picks could vary too much and it’d be difficult for them to get to a consensus before the lottery. Spurs would obviously look crazy if they hand Sacramento Flagg or Harper plus additional future picks. On the other hand Sacramento will look at these picks as a 10th and 11th pick type value in a range that appears disappointing.
Klutch and Fox are a third party in this, with their own agenda. They should not be seen as a party that is on the Spurs side, make no mistake. They are the ones pushing hard to get a deal done now because they want security - both financial and also to get to the place he wants to be at. They’d know the Spurs would have other options as well, especially come the summer.
I agree, it's tough to say. "Two-way playmaker" is kind of a generic thing to say, but that's the best I can think of. I think he'll develop a nice middy and become a decent 3P shooter which will really open things up for him and force teams to respect him more, but I don't even see him becoming a true #2 scorer. A guy who can drop 30 from time to time, but probably more of that Spurs Derrick White type who can be a 15ppg guy, play great defense, create events on the defensive end. I think 16/5/5 is kind of where I ultimately see him. Derrick is a 16/4/4 guy this year but 75% of his shots are from 3P so he's really changed as a player.
Like you said, it's tough... but 2020-21 Spurs Derrick White is kind of what I see as his 80th percentile outcome, but with a little less reliance on the 3 ball (Derrick's shot diet was still 50% 3PA that year but he averaged 15.4/3/3.5 - I think Steph can improve on those numbers)
I think Stephon can easily be a 20, 5, 5 type of player. He could average more points depending on his jumper/three point shot, but IMO, he's got a higher ceiling than Derrick ppg wise. Then again, I wonder what Derrick would average on a different team that needs him to score more. Derrick has a lot more confidence than he had when he used to play for the Spurs.
Right now, I think the best strategy for Spurs is to make a low ball offer. This offer must just be high enough not to upset Kings and Fox's camp. This offer will likely be rejected but it will be fine because the ideal timing to get Fox for Spurs is this summer. His trade value will then be lower and Spurs will then know what picks they are getting in the 2025 draft.
The risk with that is that another team might swoop him at this deadline or that Fox changes his mind and decides to stay in Sacramento.
If spurs want this, it'll happen. They'll offer a fair deal and Klutch will make it happen. But it's on the spurs wanting him. They won't get a bargain per say. But fox isn't a 3 firsts plus 2 pick swap player. Especially on what's left on his contract.
I'm telling y'all there are ways to get this done without giving up the future core of Castle, Vassell, Sochan (I know a lot of y'all hate the last 2, but that's how I think the Spurs view the roster).
The Kings want John Collins, who was a fringe All-Star at some point and is a high end role player. If we can make this a 3-team deal and get them Collins plus let's say 2 first rounders that should be a realistic possibility. Keep in mind that the ATL 27 holds more value than other first round picks, since it's unprotected. They would also get their swap back and to sweeten the deal we can take on Huerter who they been trying to get rid off for a while now. Huerter would immediately be in our rotation since we lack shooting.
Utah is tanking and Collins doesn't seem to be worth 2 firsts. So you send Utah a first and a bunch of 2nds while giving them what we have a lot of: tank commanders. Since Utah's coach is ex-Spurs assistant Will Hardy, we do right by our players to send them to a coach they know and they get more playing time to increase their numbers.
something like:
Spurs: Huerter, Fox
Kings: John Collins, CP3, Tre Jones, ATL 27, CHI 25, Kings swap back (this gives the Kings 20 million in expiring contracts as well)
Jazz: Keldon Johnson, Branham, Spurs 25, 2 second round picks
might even be a bigger 4 team deal. You can also reroute salary to Detroit so the Kings can get a trade exception.
Every report says Fox is gone and that Spurs are his preferred destination.
Very few teams in the league have the assets to make a solid offer if Fox is even interested in joining them.
There's also a report that says Kings can't expect a return to what Jazz got for Mitc .
Cavs kept their three most important assets in Mitc trade (Mobley, Garland and Allen), gave up their own picks an swaps from '25 to '29 which are projected to be bad.
If Wright gives up Castle he has to go because he has no negotiating skills and will get bent over in every single trade.
It's not even about Castle as a player, but evaluating our front office's competence. And Castle is our most valuable asset after Wemby.
I think Castle can become a legit #2 scorer, if given the chance. In the 23 games he's played 25+ minutes (I assume he'd get at least that much PT as a #2), he is averaging 15.7 pts, 3.8 ast, and 2.9 rbs. We'll see how the rest of the season plays out, but that level of production is not too far off from the 16/5/5 you're projecting.
IF the sample size is indicative of his baseline, a bump in his efficiency or attempts should get him into the 17-18ppg range, while an improvement in both would make becoming a 20ppg scorer likely, imo
So you're saying if it doesn't get done by the trade deadline then it's not going to happen. Man, that is one BOLD take...
Role-wise Harper is much closer to Fox than he is to Castle, although he achieves his goals differently. The more I see of Castle, the more I view him as a secondary and not a primary initiator - I don't see him as an automatic paint touch due to athletic and speed limitations and he doesn't seem like the kind of guy who will consistently draw 2 and scramble defenses. His virtues come from being well rounded in other areas and his POA defense. This is actually why I harp on his rebounding as well - if your shooting is limited, and you can't be a primary, you have to be really valuable in literally every other area to be the high level player that we all want him to be.
Harper will probably be a decent defender at the next level, but his money is going to be made on offense since he's going to be an automatic paint touch. He's one of the few guys in this class who can consistently generate an advantage without a screen and has a higher proportion of rim shots to non-rim shots compared to any freshman guard in the last several years. Fox was the same way, but he just does it with speed whereas Harper does it with strength/craft. I have some concerns about how that will translate if his jumper is iffy, but these are the exact same strengths/weaknesses that Fox had/has. If he can't get to the rim at the next level consistently, he will bust, which a little different than Castle who will still be very valuable as a player even if he does not consistently generate paint touches.
EDIT: Bust is probably too strong a word as he will still be a good sized guard with good vision, but suffice to say that his value will significantly diminish
Last edited by SpursBills; 01-31-2025 at 09:19 AM.
Stats support the argument that Castle is more of a secondary playmaker. His net rating with CP3 and Tre Jones is up while it‘s down significantly when he plays point.
That and Spider, at the time of his trade (maybe even now), is the better player.
Bingo. Sounds like if another team did take him now, it’s knowing he’d be a rental. This seems as much about Klutch getting a client next to Wemby, as it is about Fox wanting to move on.
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