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most teams can't offer more than the MLE. And the Spurs shouldn't offer more than that either.
Fantastic work on that comparison.
I especially like your method of estimating gravity as a shooter. It shows that Sochan has essentially none, which agrees with the eye test.
I think the backlash against 100/5 is the extra digit in the number, or at least the sense that $100M is "too much" for someone like Sochan. That's why it's best to look at contracts in terms of % of the cap rather than absolute dollar amounts, especially with the cap growing so quickly. The MLE starts at 9% of the cap; 10% is hardly onerous for a young key role-player.
imo 100/5 is fair value, 90/5 would be team-friendly, and 80/5 would be a steal.
most teams can't offer more than the MLE. And the Spurs shouldn't offer more than that either.
What!? It is projected to have the most capspace since 2016. A lot of contracts are lined up to get the new CBA money.
I’ve stated this multiple times and am repeating myself so forgive me on this, but my stance is that teams like OKC and Memphis actually have a set, reasonable system in place, and the profile of players who fit into that model is clear.
Spurs on the other hand, doesn’t. The system is confusing and difficult to understand, even for life long basketball players. Nobody can grasp the system because there is none, and as such there aren’t players who can just fit in and contribute.
Whatever the spurs are running isn’t working, players have been here for years and no one seems to get it. People say the players are dumb but vets like Paul and Barnes sometimes struggle in it as well. Castle is just playing his game now and players are unsure what to do and where to go. By the time the player finally realizes what’s going on the play is already over.
Simplify the system. Strip down the playbook, simple defensive concepts. It’s not brain surgery, it’s freaking basketball, repeat the same plays over and over again until they are down pat. MAGA and pedo ran the same bloody pick and roll for 20 years, you run a play well enough and it will work. We have wemby, we can run some unstoppable plays with him like nuggets with jokic.
At this point having sochan, who by most reasonable evaluation is a solid glue guy who could be a 6th man or even a starter based on lineups/matchups, at $16-$18m a year for 4 to 5 years isn’t unreasonable.
As much as people like to crap on his lack of development, he has a significant jump in efficiency (due to a drastic reduction in 3pa/100 ), rebounding, and a number of advanced metrics (ortg, drtg, ws/48, VORP, BPM, orb%, per, ts%, ft rate) all with about the same usage rate. Hope this improvement will continue and at the $16-$18m area, you are talking about similar sixth to eighth man types, or one sided offensive chuckers types.
It goes back to how much a team values defense vs offence. Sochan is the opposite of a on offensive chucker, he does defense and very minimal on defense.
2016 is long gone. You probably mean 2026. There are currently only 12 teams under the cap for that season and 9 of them could offer slightly more money than the current MLE. Most teams do not have a lot of cap room and extensions will make that group a lot smaller once the offseason comes around.
Frontloading Sochan's contract would also make sense.
Finally someone speaking sense. thank you
People here just think all 30 teams have a load of cap space and all of them are just dying to offer Sochan a huge deal. Few teams have the cap space and even fewer actually would want Sochan and none and I mean none are going to offer him $20 million a year so why even bring up that number?
Even if you talk about it in percentages, no other team is going to give Sochan 11% of their cap so why would the Spurs?
That does not add up. 2026 offseason when Sochan deal is expiring there are ton of capspace. CHI BKN POR UTA LAC WAS NOP is from 80-100 with no big money guy they would sign between this offseason and 2026. Add DET to that. HOU ATL and DAL could move on with their lead guards and have 40-60 to work with. LAL could have as much as 80 as well. Look at the free agents for 2026 you see a lot of big money old guys as UFA and a ton of 18-20 million players coming off the books.
2016 is when the cap ed and between that and 2017 teams are suddenly have ton of capspace. 2026 offseason is comparable to that.
Who is getting a big extension in CHI BKN POR UTA LAC NOP DET? CHI has no one, UTA only has Kessler who they got on the block for years, NOP Trey already got his, DET,POR with negative impact players in Sharpe and Ivery Duren?
You also have a barren 2025 free agency class and a down 2022 draft class with probably 3 max guys not included on those teams I listed 2 from OKC and 1 from ORL. Then no one would even close to sniffing the max. Maybe 1 sorta big extension guy in 2021 in inga but GSW is not really among those teams projected above.
Even with the 2025 free agency class there is no one projected to get a bump, Naz Reid maybe but MIN is not really among the projected cap space team, Turner if he resigns IND is also not amoing projected cap space team.
There is also Sean Marks who is known for poison pilling restricted free agents armed with the most projected capspace in the next 2 years.
Last edited by rankingtear; 02-12-2025 at 01:24 PM.
1) Who is this mythical person who said "all 30 teams have a load of cap space and all of them are just dying to offer Sochan a huge deal"? Motte and bailey.
2) An MLE contract is around $18M per season and doesn't require cap space, though it does require being under the tax line. Roughly 20 teams have access to the full MLE each season.
3) Your assumption that no other team would want Sochan at $20M per (or 11% of the cap) is just that, an assumption. An opinion, not a fact. The reason to bring that specific number up is that it is comparable, even favorably comparable, to players like Okongwu, McDaniels, and Anunoby.
Good job of continuing to be a mindless idiot, incapable of a 3rd grade level of reasoning.
Absolutely, and that lack of a system I think is what leads us to this place where we have a roster full of guys who don't really fit. With that said, I think some leeway can be granted because the main core is just evolving. Coming into the season it was essentially just Wemby, and now a few months later it is very clear that it is Wemby-Fox-Castle. I'd hope that all of our roster moves from here forward are made based on what fits those 3.
What I don't want to see, is passing up opportunities to add a prospect that fits to the end of the roster because we've already got Malaki Branham in that seat. It's just poor resource management. The team could make better use of the end of the bench and it's two ways, like OKC and MEM do. This is how these teams are going to manage their cap in the long term, but finding and developing these guys who form the next wave of cheap role players for them. MEM has Vince Williams, Jay Huff, Scotty Pippen Jr, GG Jackson, and Jaylen wells all locked up for half the price of Malaki Branham next year. Likewise OKC with Ajay Mitc , Dillon Jones and Jaylin Williams. That's just S-Tier roster management. As soon as JJJ makes All-NBA this year and extends, MEM is going to have 3 guys on 25%+ Max Level deals and still going to be able to fairly easily manage their cap. I think I've read they took a bunch of our FO guys... wonder if we can somehow get them back.
No it isn't, 2016-17 had a 32% e to the cap. The new CBA smoothed cap rises which is why it's 10% every year off the new TV deal specifically to prevent situations like GSW having a bunch of stars under contract and still being able to sign Durant too only because of a cap e.
You must be his agent or something. No it’s my assumption. The same way it’s your assumption that somebody will give him the full MLE. Again you make no sense and are bidding against yourself. Do you know the most amount of years a team can sign Sochan is 4 years? That’s it. So why offer him a 5th year? It makes no sense.
And you yourself have already pigeonholed Sochan as being worth 11% of their cap. So why then give him a 5th year? Just give him 4 like anybody else. If he’s good enough for a 5th year then sign him again for the same percentage. He isn’t going to improve that much anyways. This is what he is as a player.
Also I could definitely be wrong but from what I google the full MLE next year is 14 million dollars. So again why offer 20 million?
Even if it was 4 years 72 million as full MLE (but I think it’s far less) then give him 4 years 75 million and call it a day. We are going to pay Wemby 65 million a year (something you forget) so these extra few millions of savings do come in play.
No question and totally agree with this. Many fans think that end of bench and gleague guys are after thought and I disagree with this, especially in the second apron days. End of bench guys are there to replace the non core valuable role players once they become expensive, basically the pipeline. Spurs are looking at this pipeline replacement using high picks, it seems. But that isn’t a sustainable model if that is the sole source because:
A) there are really only 2 of 3 core level players in any given draft, everyone else are either role players or swings. The spurs are hoping for role players who obviously require a suitable system and strong development. The spurs have neither.
B) rookies are by definition young undeveloped players who are general unknowns in the pro game. The spurs have to hit these singles and doubles at a pretty high rate to allow for this churn of role players. I think the spurs are still league average or above in drafting but nobody bats 100%
C) there is a way bigger young vet pool with much less unknown in their pro games than players available in the draft. By ignoring this pool the spurs are unwisely removing a huge pool of renewable resource
Using an 8-man rotation, with another 2 playing spot minutes, any team has a roster sport for 5 to 7 players to audition for these roles for cheap and actually have a probation period for them. To your point, using this on branham, who didn’t show much improvement in three years and even if he did doesn’t seem to fit in the team is a waste of a valuable spot. I still have some faith in Wesley but without a solid development plan and a clear coaching strategy, the spurs will go no where.
I'm not his agent, I'm defending my position that 100/5 (i.e. 11% higher than the MLE) would be a fair contract for Sochan. Going much past that would be an overpay, which is something his agent wouldn't say.
I already addressed the "bidding against yourself" argument. Giving Sochan a modest amount above the MLE hedges the risk that he makes a huge leap next season that causes another team to be willing to offer significantly above the MLE. That team doesn't necessarily have to have cap space: if they offer Sochan enough and the Spurs won't match, he will ask for a sign-and-trade. At that point he would have one foot out the door and the Spurs might as well sign-and-trade him to try and get something back. The downside is paying him a few extra million per season.
If you're willing to give him 4 years you should be willing to give him 5. The max raise size of 8.5% is less than the cap rise of 10%, meaning that in cap % terms even a contract with max raise sizes is declining over time. Also he will be 27 in that 5th year, right in the prime of his career. He could command a contract much bigger than that 5th year salary at that point.
The bolded part is another opinion, one I disagree with. I expect him to improve because he is still quite young. If Sochan truly is never going to get any better than he is now 100/5 would be an overpay. In other words, I would agree with your conclusion if I agreed with your premise. The premises are where we have a difference of opinion.
The MLE is a bit over 9% of the cap. In 2026-2027, when Sochan's extension would kick in, the cap will be $170M. That makes a max length MLE contract 69/4 starting at $15.3M, or 89/5 if the Spurs offer a fifth year.
A 30% extension for Wemby will start at $56M in 2027-2028 (the second year of Sochan's extension), when the cap will be $187M.
Who TF are MAGA and Pedo?
Seventyniner, this is a nitpick, but it's been bugging me since I've seen it several times now... but it's 8% max raises, not 8.5%.
Dammit, you're right. I'm annoyed that I can't remember where I got 8.5% from. Maybe an old CBA?
That makes a 5th year an even better deal in cap % terms, assuming that the cap goes up the full 10% every year.
I'm assuming Stockton and Malone.Who TF are MAGA and Pedo?
Definitely resign Jeremy. He is part of the defensive culture/type of player the FO seems to want. Just don't overpay him.
Tangent: Devin on the other hand seems like a one-dimensional gunner that isn't needed at that price point. I think he's trying to adapt but will only do so when Castle starts and assumes #3 on the pecking order. Starting CP just gives Devin the hope he can still do his same thing. Just my opinion.
Doesn't back down until it's the end of a quarter and he gets the ball WIDE OPEN because he's always WIDE OPEN and then he competes so hard he takes a shot clock violation instead of shooting.
Yeah I’m not willing to give a bench player more than the MLE. I see Sochan for what I believe he will become. A bench player. His game isn’t good enough to be a starter on a winning team. I will go so far to say that we won’t be a winning team with him as a starter, even with Fox.
He would need to improve massively in order to start for a winning team and he just hasn’t shown the ability to get better at all. 3rd year Sochan is disappointing and so will 4th year and 5th year. He will never be a shooter and we need a shooter to pair with Wemby and Fox. He doesn’t set good picks. He doesn’t finish in traffic particularly well and in fact he doesn’t do anything offensively well. Sochan is a bench player waiting to happen. The faster the FO comes to that realization the better off we will be as a franchise.
Stockton and Malone.Who TF are MAGA and Pedo?
Sochan was our most prepared player to start the season, roaring out of the gates averaging 17 and 9. Then the broken thumb and he never got in sync since, compounded by the back injury. That regression is perfectly timed for his contract extension this offseason, we should consider it good fortune actually. Otherwise if he maintained 17 and 9 someone probably want to throw crazy money at him.
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