https://sports.yahoo.com/capture-the...171506711.html
THE TERRIFYING SCENARIOS
San Antonio Spurs (own and Atlanta)
Current Record: 23-28 (No. 10)
Current No. 1 odds: 3% (3% own + ATL’s)
Remaining SOS: .530 (own), .476 (ATL)
Victor Wembanyama and Cooper Flagg? Oh, it’s possible. Acquiring star point guard De’Aaron Fox will help the Spurs’ playoff odds even if it means it’ll hurt their chances at landing Flagg with their own pick. But good news for the Spurs: They can have the best of both worlds. A playoff run and a potential Flagg in the waiting.
Should the Spurs punch their playoff ticket and miss the lottery with their own pick, they can still land the No. 1 overall selection, thanks to the 2022 Dejounte Murray trade. In that transaction, the Spurs received Danilo Gallinari and four first-round picks, including Atlanta’s unprotected 2025 pick.
Since trading Murray to the Pels this past summer, the Hawks have hovered just below .500 with plenty of opportunity to fall further. Most Improved Player candidate Jalen Johnson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in late January and the Hawks' front office traded two core members in De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanović at the deadline.
After a three-game win streak, the Hawks have improbably remained in the playoff hunt. By playing in the Eastern Conference, the Hawks can only fall so far in the draft lottery. The Spurs, however, out West, have a tougher strength of schedule. They could feasibly fall to No. 7 in draft lottery odds, which would bring a 7.5% chance at the top pick. In the two best-case scenarios, the Spurs would stack their odds and have a combined 13.5 percent chance at No. 1. Yes, basically the same odds as having the worst record in the NBA, which is capped at 14.0 percent.
The Spurs hope Atlanta wins the lottery for the second year in a row, which has happened more often than you think. The Cleveland Cavaliers did it in 2013 (Anthony Bennett) and 2014 (Andrew Wiggins, traded to Minny for Kevin Love). In 1992 and 1993, the Orlando Magic picked first to get Shaquille O’Neal and Chris Webber, the latter of whom they traded to Golden State for Anfernee Hardaway and three firsts.
Yeah, a Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama frontcourt is in play. You thought the Tim Duncan and David Robinson combo was a legendary frontline. Can you imagine if Flagg and Wemby played their entire careers together?
Maybe Mitch limiting Castle min for a subtle soft tank and aiming for the real prize in the draft.
. There is no need to be mad for future losses guys.
IDK why people keep saying "improbably" as far as the Hawks go. They just barely lost to the Knicks in OT, and they're the only team in that mix tryin to win since they don't control their picks. If the play-in is Magic Heat Hawks Bulls, the Hawks getting in is far from a longshot, I'd bet on them over any of those except maybe Orlando, and even then it's pretty even.
Come on guys, we’re not so soft “soft tanking”. I’m fully expecting Fox to have surgery to fix his finger here soon. It would be malpractice for them not to maximize this opportunity with two potential lotto picks.
The problem is, as a 9 or 10 seed, you have to win twice. I think a 9 seed or two have snuck in, but no 10 has ever played in, because both games you’d need to win would be on the road.
Miami is also EXTREMELY motivated to make the playoffs and convey their pick to OKC under those cir stances, as it becomes unprotected next year if it doesn’t convey. They’ll fight to the death in any prospective 8/9 playin game.
Point taken as far as Miami goes, didn't consider that, but in that case Hawks might not even face them if they just win out the 7/8 game. Hawks sneaking in just really requires them beating the Bulls/76ers (we pray for the 76ers here, the nu bulls are trash edit: didn't realize 76ers just lost to the in Nets yesterday jesus christ that team is dog ), and then the Magic. IDK maybe I'm being pessimistic but I've caught a couple of Hawks games just cuz I'm invested in this pick and they don't actually look that bad atm.
I think Spurs want to give fans a look at Fox on the home court before they shut him down for surgery. Wouldn't be surprised if he is shut down shortly after his home debut though and I wouldn't be mad about it. It is clear we are not ready for playoffs and even I am starting to lean toward the tank.
Wemby, Fox, Flagg and Castle
Defense, Offense, Supers om, Character
You've got everything
The dream lineup
Let's go!
I can't remember the format. Is it 7 vs 8 and 9 vs 10 for the first game? So if they finish 9th, they get that first game at home? If that is the case, we'd really want them to finish 10th to make it much harder for them to have to win 2 games on the road.
Didn't know that about Miami's pick. Really good incentive for them to win.
We need some data on the Fox-Wemby dynamic before the offseason. CP3 experience dumping on our guards for a few more game is also important. There is less of a need to secure the odds now that Castle has shown this level of potential, but securing a forward with the pick or packaging the pick for a forward could cement our viability in the playoffs.
First round: It's 7v10 and 8v9. If 9 or 10 lose the first round, they're out. If 9/10 both lose, 7 & 8 advance. If one of 9/10 win, they play whichever 7/8 lost and the winner goes. If both 9/10 win, they play the other 7/8 team and the winners advance.
Basically if you're 9/10 you are single elimination and have to win 2 games to advance. If you're 7/8 you have to win 1 out of 2 games to advance
You are wrong. Its 7-8 and 9-10. Loser of 9-10 is eliminate, loser of 7-8 have decider on home floor
You're right. Sorry about that. In this case, a picture is better than words.
Cool, thanks. So the loser is out after one game, and then the winner of 9/10 gets another chance against the loser of 7/8 on their home floor on 7/8's home floor. So basically, it's best if Atlanta finish 10th, as if they're 9th, they at least get that first game on their home floor which gives them a better chance to get to the second game.
I can't see the Hawks falling to 10 unless they get hit by even more injuries. They would have to get passed by the Sixers or Bulls, both of which are playing terribly right now. I'm just hoping the Hawks stay in the 9 spot so they can be only one bad game away from getting knocked out, as opposed to being one good game away from getting in if they finish 7th or 8th.
Since 2021
Anything can happen, but it sure looks like the 9th seed is the floor for ATL at this point. No one below them seems to even want the 10 seed. I think Philly is on the verge of shutting it down and trying to protect their pick (Top 6 protected) to OKC. Right now Philly is tied with BKN for the 6th seed after the Nets beat them last night. If you are Morey, you almost HAVE to shut it down, right? (Of note, BKN has won 3 in a row, PHI has lost 5 in a row). It would be malpractice for the team and for the league for Philly to hand OKC a Top 10 pick. Nets are only 1 game back in the loss column to the Bulls for the 10th seed... so it might actually be the Nets who contend for that spot, not PHI.
If the 9 seed loses to the 10 seed in the first Play-In Round, do the lotto odds get affected, or does it still just go by regular season record? I know that if advancing out of the Play-In impacts the lottery (since the lottery is only for non-playoff teams), but does the Play-In impact it?
I'm pretty sure that lottery order is determined solely by reverse order of record for all teams that didn't make the playoffs. That includes teams that got knocked out of the play-in. So the Hawks could make it to the second play-in game, lose, and still have a draft slot ahead of a West 9/10 team that loses the first play-in game if that West team has a better record.
I don't think they'll tank, they'll just lose a lot of games. Whatever mojo they had before has expired, probably the Pop has worn off and the Mitch is now settled in.
I also don't think Phila gets going, they ing suck, and Atlanta looks pretty good. Trae is playing extremely well. They may just mediocre their way into the playoffs. It'll be like inexperienced Detroit or Orlando standing in the way.
Maybe the Sixers squeeze in there but can't bet on them to win a single game much less two.
Flagg is a pipe dream. But the draft is maybe like 5-6 deep. It'd be great to get in there somehow and get another strong player. Right now the team (long-term) is just Wemby-Castle-Fox, with Fox being pretty underwhelming, more a tag-a-long guy, and hopefully Sochan can get his own mojo back after his injuries. The team needs talent.
Hawks will only be in the lottery if something happens to Young and he's injured for a significant number of games. All the teams below them, except 76ers are in major tank mode. Sad that the 76ers suck and are going to give OKC another lottery pick. Imagine if Flagg went to OKC.
Spurs have tough compe ion to make the play-in as most of the teams in the West are trying to make the playoffs.
Thankfully the PHI pick to OKC is protected 1-6, preventing OKC from getting too significant of a gift. This is why I think Philly might just shut it down coming out of the ASB. Right now they are tied for 6th, which also has the unintended consequence of if the Spurs happen to get lucky and get SAS or ATL to jump into the Top 4, it will deliver pick #7 or 8 to OKC. I won't be mad about it, but it's suboptimal.
I think 9th seed is the most likely finish for Atlanta... they could be 8 or 10, but I don't think either are likely looking at their schedule.
This thread only states the obvious and not in a timely manner. It’s been clear for a while now we need as high a draft pick as we can get.
Bill Simmons brought up an interesting take. Said OKC is about to have a really expensive roster so they could take that pick from Philly and bundle say 7 more firsts to trade for Flagg to have a high end player on a cost controlled salary the next four years.
Not sure anyone gives up the top pick for any price. Our interesting twist post lottery is can we package our two 2025 FRPs to move up and if so how far. Assuming we don’t win the whole enchilada again.
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