Tankathon lists the probability for each team's picks based on their current NBA standings. Here are the odds for each team in the lottery (assuming none of the picks are traded and all picks are owned) -
Now the Spurs are currently picking 10th and 11th (from the Atlanta Hawks). What is the probability of the Spurs picking 1st or within the top 4 considering they have both picks? While we want to find that answer, lets also calculate the probability of picking 1st or within the top 4 if the land earlier in the lottery. Here are some possible scenarios (the most likely ones. The Spurs and Hawks will find it difficult to drop all the way down to the 6th position based on how current rankings are).
In other words, the Spurs will have nearly the same probability of picking the 1st pick and within the top 4 if they land up in the 7th position and the Hawks in the 8th position, as what the teams in the worst 3 have. As things stand, they are getting the 10th & 11th picks .. which gives them a 4.9% chance to win the NBA lottery and a 22.3% chance of getting a pick in the top 4. Thats the equivalent of having the same odds as the 9th worst team.
Here's hoping that the Hawks and/or the Spurs get into a situation that they lose games enough to finish higher in the lottery if the idea is to get one of the top 4 picks in the lottery.
It would be great if the Spurs can land a top 4 pick this year.
Starting next year I expect the Spurs to be making the playoffs every year so this is their last shot with their own pick in the lottery.
Of course they have another Atlanta pick and the Atlanta pick swap but no guarantee those will be in the lottery.
Good post
Honestly I'm at the point where we could sit Wemby and Fox and we'd still outperform the 76ers. If you've watched any of their games it's just simply atrocious. And their pick is top 6 protected too so they're not keen to make a push for it I'd guess. Same with Chicago and Brooklyn, they're terrible. Portland should def pass us though. I think the best case scenario is:
* We get the 9th spot by portland passing us
* Atlanta lands at 11th, reasonable to think the Suns, Kings, Warriors would all have a better record.
* Atlanta doesn't make it past the play-in.
That gets us a descent ~27% chance of a top 4 pick and very likely chance of top 10, with a far off shot at #1. I just wouldn't hold my breathe, especially if we don't sit Fox.
yeah if anything atlanta may be on the upswing as long as Trae sticks around. dyson daniels is blossoming and he's only turning 22 next month. jalen johnson is an outstanding young forward locked up for the foreseeable future. i still like risacher a lot who has started shooting the ball straight after a rough start to the year. over the last 20 games or so he's shot 48% from the field and 40% from 3. he is yet to turn 20.
theyre also finally getting off the undesirable capela contract (22 mil off the books). nance and levert are also expiring and will clear up an additional 28 mil.
while they owe us their pick this year, they are getting picks from the lakers and kings (top 12 protected, currently projected to convey)
Last edited by spurraider21; 02-21-2025 at 02:44 PM.
Got Boston (28), Dallas (30), Minnesota (30), and Sacramento (31) pick swaps too, with the only protection being top 1 from Boston in 28 and Minnesota in 30, so should be able to get another lottery pick or two out of those also.
dallas one for sure. would hypothetically be after kyrie/AD's age 36/37 seasons if either is still around
and sacto... you can usually count on them to be dysfunctional in the long haul
Why would Trae stick around ? Their owners have proven to be extremely cheap.
because of the aforementioned young, improving roster, city thats embraced him as the franchise player
Too far out, five six years out, to make any assumptions on those picks. I'm talking about the foreseeable future for the Spurs own picks and Atlanta picks, this is their best shot for a high lottery pick.
Spurs at 9 and 11 with close to a one in three chance at a top 4.
I hate the NBA and its protected draft picks. In the NFL they don't have any of that bull . Carolina didn't get to have a mulligan after trading the farm for Bryce Young. Their options were, develop Bryce Young or die trying. And Bryce Young did finally improve a bit towards the end of this past season.
Neither of the picks we still own in this draft are protected.
Here's the NBA draft lottery results since the flattened odds -
As things stand on March 3, 2025, the Spurs are getting the 9th and 11th picks (via Hawks) which combined together provide a first pick probability of 6.5% and Top 4 pick probability of 27.3%
Those are better odds than the 2024 and 2019 picks. But ideally the Spurs should aspire for at least the 7th pick for themselves and the 8th or 9th pick for the Hawks, which will give them a 13.7%/12.3% probability for the 1st pick and 51.8% and 47.3% probability for one of the top 4 picks, equivalent of the top 3 worst records/ or the 4th worst record.
So lets root for the Trailblazers, 76ers and the Bulls and improbably for the Nets and Raptors as well. And for the Spurs to tank wholeheartedly.
Mitch sending Zollins and Trae to Bulls to accomplish this.Here's the NBA draft lottery results since the flattened odds -
As things stand on March 3, 2025, the Spurs are getting the 9th and 11th picks (via Hawks) which combined together provide a first pick probability of 6.5% and Top 4 pick probability of 27.3%
Those are better odds than the 2024 and 2019 picks. But ideally the Spurs should aspire for at least the 7th pick for themselves and the 8th or 9th pick for the Hawks, which will give them a 13.7%/12.3% probability for the 1st pick and 51.8% and 47.3% probability for one of the top 4 picks, equivalent of the top 3 worst records/ or the 4th worst record.
So lets root for the Trailblazers, 76ers and the Bulls and improbably for the Nets and Raptors as well. And for the Spurs to tank wholeheartedly.
If the Sixers drop out off the top 6 for any reason, OKC gets their pick.Here's the NBA draft lottery results since the flattened odds -
As things stand on March 3, 2025, the Spurs are getting the 9th and 11th picks (via Hawks) which combined together provide a first pick probability of 6.5% and Top 4 pick probability of 27.3%
Those are better odds than the 2024 and 2019 picks. But ideally the Spurs should aspire for at least the 7th pick for themselves and the 8th or 9th pick for the Hawks, which will give them a 13.7%/12.3% probability for the 1st pick and 51.8% and 47.3% probability for one of the top 4 picks, equivalent of the top 3 worst records/ or the 4th worst record.
So lets root for the Trailblazers, 76ers and the Bulls and improbably for the Nets and Raptors as well. And for the Spurs to tank wholeheartedly.
Where do you see Spurs and Hawks finishing realistically?
9/10 or 9/11. It’s so late, it’s hard to make up ground. The only thing that might working our favor is that of the bottom 8 teams, 6 are in the east, and when they play, someone has to win.
Weighed against the possibility of the Spurs landing Flagg because of ATL and SAS getting better picks, OKC picking up the 7th or 8th or 9th pick seems a better outcome than the 76ers finishing higher.
The best outcome, of course, is one or both of our picks jumping into the top 4. If that doesn’t happen, I absolutely don’t want OKC getting a lottery pick. We have very little chance of either of our picks finishing better than 9 in the final pre-lottery positions. There are just too many teams that have been taking from the get go. With Embiid lost for the year, and maybe more, PHI has very little chance to climb the standings any way.
The other issue is that the pick is Top 4 protected for next year... with Embiid going through a severe injury and the Sixers' team limited by his gargantuan salary (not to mention Paul George's)...there is a good chance that the Sixers will suck again next year.. In that case it is better to convey the 7th or the 8th pick this season rather than the 5th or the 6th pick next year and particularly good for the Spurs as that increases their probability of picking in the top 4 this year.
We're only one win ahead of CHI for the 8th pick - that slot is easily attainable with proper tank management, but it has yet to be seen if the Spurs will do that or just continue being naturally unable to win most games.
If you believe in ESPN's BPI projections, then even 5th could still be technically achievable as they have PHI finishing there with 28.3 projected wins. 28 wins for us would require a 3-20 finish though, which may just be a little too stinky for this team to stomach. 30 wins seems a more reasonable projection, which would put us right with TOR at 7th based on the projections. We have quite a few important Double-Tankathon Games left that we need to lose: 3/21 v PHI, 3/23 v TOR, 4/6 v POR, 4/11 v PHX, 4/13 v TOR in the season finale. That last game could be a huge one.
https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/projections
I hate talking about and hoping for losing. Please let this be the last year of this .
Spurs will be given the green light to play hard against good teams as this will help player development and will be yanked around against bad teams with strange lineups to better the tank.
It's astounding how completely awful Philadelphia is, 1-9 in their last ten games. Chicago is practically begging to drop below them and can't manage it and Brooklyn is neck-and-neck.
In the end I feel like SA will end up 8 or 9 and Atlanta will wind up 10, although even six games under .500 the Hawks are still a couple wins off the pace of only needing one play-in game for the full postseason. Man that conference sucks.
One of the best things going on right now is Portland. If AD returns soon to boost Dallas, and Portland continues to play hot, Sacto may get knocked back into their 1-12 pick protected zone, denying ATL their possible late lottery pick and a decent chance to improve.
Something is wrong with the combined 1st pick probability %. It should just be the two numbers from the first table added together. So 7th + 8th should be 8.2% + 6.0% = 14.2% instead of 13.7%. I think what you computed subtracted out the probability of both picks being the #1 pick, which can't happen.
As for the other column, I think the percentages there should be a bit higher than what you listed as well, for a similar reason. I think you subtracted out the probability of both picks being in the 1-4 range, but there are cases that can't happen (both picks being #1, both being #2, etc) which should be added back in. However, the correct percentage is difficult to compute because you need to know the exact odds of getting each of the four picks.
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