That 34% just dopped to 32.9% with just an 0-3 game. That's why the limited shot attempts is important when claiming he's now a 34% shooter.
I never claimed that this was an endpoint, or that he was a finished product. Some folks here just don’t want to even acknowledge improvement in the percentage and the overall shot, with the 45 degree axial tilt gone. Misery and pessimism are powerful drugs,I guess.
Imo, his percentage is completely irrelevant as long as opponents are leaving him completely wide open and daring him to shoot.
When you start seeing players try to contest his shot, that's when his progress will be noticable enough to actually impact the game.
Yeah, he's working on his mechanics, but even bigs who basically never took at 3pt in an actual game can hit them consistently in practice.
Look, I used to get mad at guys Danny Green for clanging wide open shots as I felt I could make a higher percentage of those than him. When you're open and you're a good shooter, it's almost like a free throw. This is strictly on wide open shots, as I'm not talking about when an NBA level defender is closing out fast on you and can also block your shot with their athleticism (or at least affect/change the shot), that's a completely different story (even good shooters can struggle with that).
The key point is, Jeremy is being left open, and if you're still only shooting 32% being left open, that is not very good at all. Sure, there a worse shooters percentage wise, but some of those guys aren't being left completely open (they'd probably hit a higher percentage unguarded). It's also too small of a sample size in Jeremy's case.
We need to see what it's like with defense being played on him. In the playoffs, that won't happen with even an average shooter (unless it's a defensive breakdown or great ball movement to get that open shot). His 32% could go way down if he's guarded.
Point is, do not get excited and encouraged by his shooting percentage going to to 34% when all the shots are wide open. It doesn't really tell us much about if his shooting has improved enough to say he's a competent shooter.
This is where I'm at on Sochan, especially the bold part. I think I would rather the Spurs let Sochan walk than sign him to an extension with the intention of him coming off the bench.
I don't even think Fox and Castle have to have big improvements as three point shooters in order for Sochan to fit in the starting lineup. Just being average to slightly below (34%) is good enough imo. The purpose of having a lineup with both Castle and Sochan is to play lockdown defense, which is easier than on most teams due to the all-universe rim protector behind them. The Rockets have cobbled together a pretty good season even while starting two non-threats from three (Amen, Sengun) by focusing on defense. Acting like Sochan must become a good three-point shooter to fit in the starting lineup doesn't make sense imo.
Amen is probably the most athletic player in the league. And he has actual point guard skills. If Sochan played anything like Amen then we he would be a starter. He isn’t blazing fast. He isn’t that athletic and he doesn’t really know how to play on the offensive end at all. Also Sengun while not being a 3 point threat is a threat to score from everywhere else. Sengun is a monster on the offensive end and just knows how to play the game. He’s just so much smarter than Sochan that is isn’t fair to compare them at all.
And your point about letting Sochan walk instead of having him as a bench player is pretty much as big a miss as a person can have. Every contender would have him as a bench player. He wouldn’t start on OKC, Hou, Mem, Boston, Cavs, NYK, Denver, Det, etc etc. He would start on the Wizards so I guess there is that.
And believe it or not, teams do play their players more than 28 minutes a game so I’m sure there would be times where Sochan would be matched up against better offensive players.
Jeremy being allowed to dribble inside the paint when it's not a big mismatch is one of the most annoying things for me. It ends with him either losing the dribble and not knowing where to kick it out or he just attempts a random shot that rarely goes in.
I understand it's something they want him to develop, but he's just not that guy.
He shouldn’t attack bigger guys in the paint. If he doesn’t beat them on the perimeter, he needs to reset the play and kick it to someone else.
I'm not comparing Sochan to either Amen or Sengun. I'm saying that a lineup can be functional with at least one non-shooter, and Castle has shown enough this season that he doesn't rate as a non-shooter.
The point of starting Sochan is so his minutes line up with the biggest wing or guard threat on the opposing team. His biggest strength is wasted coming off the bench.
Sochan isn’t a starter on any other contending team and yet you want him to start for us? It makes zero sense. Idgaf if we aren’t putting our bench players in 100% optimal position when he isn’t even 100% optimal for the team as a starter. He isn’t as good as Sengun or Thompson so the fact that they aren’t shooters doesn’t matter. If Sochan was a better player he wouldn’t be in the position he is in, but he’s not that good a player so we regulated his ass to the bench. Just like Houston would do btw.
I mean some of yall are ridiculous with the Sochan love to the point that it’s not realistic. Some people want to pay him 5 years $100 million bc somehow that’s a steal. Other people are saying his shooting has improved when it hasn’t. Once again, he has made 26 threes all season on wide open attempts. His shooting is still atrocious. And then others saying we should just get rid of him instead of benching him when every other contender would bench him anyways. Then we are comparing Sochan to all star Sengun and all world athlete Amen and saying well it works for Houston. Yes bc they are both better than Sochan. Swap Thompson for Sochan and that wouldn’t work for Hou and we would improve.
Yes. Sochan's skill set fits a lineup with Fox/Castle/Wemby quite well as long as the other forward is a decent shooter and defender, which the Spurs want their other forward to be anyway even if Sochan doesn't start.
Whether or not he would start for any other teams doesn't matter because he isn't on those teams. There are plenty of contenders Castle wouldn't start for, does that mean the Spurs should bring him off the bench?
Who said that? Name names.
It does not.
Fox and Castle will both always drive into the paint as the first option and Wemby would prefer having a PF who can shoot the ball so it's more difficult for the opposition to crowd him.
If Fox/Castle/Barnes/?/Wemby is the starting lineup for the next season, you can't tell me that starting Sochan would be better than having a PF with a reliable 3pt shot.
Maybe we could manage with Jeremy, but that doesn't mean having a shooter in his place wouldn't be better.
It kind of does. It determines his value. For example he can ask for 100/5, but Spurs can just tell him to come back with the best offer he gets from another team and match it if he's not extended this summer.Whether or not he would start for any other teams doesn't matter because he isn't on those teams.
There's actually no need to extend him right away, let him earn that contract.
Castle has shown great improvement on month to month basis in his rookie season. It's Jeremy's third year and he's always the least threatening regular rotation member on offense. He's the guy opposing coaches are fine with taking the shot.There are plenty of contenders Castle wouldn't start for, does that mean the Spurs should bring him off the bench?
NameFantastic work on that comparison.
I especially like your method of estimating gravity as a shooter. It shows that Sochan has essentially none, which agrees with the eye test.
I think the backlash against 100/5 is the extra digit in the number, or at least the sense that $100M is "too much" for someone like Sochan. That's why it's best to look at contracts in terms of % of the cap rather than absolute dollar amounts, especially with the cap growing so quickly. The MLE starts at 9% of the cap; 10% is hardly onerous for a young key role-player.
imo 100/5 is fair value, 90/5 would be team-friendly, and 80/5 would be a steal.
I figured you would bring that up. I said 80/5 would be a steal, not 100/5.
You're only looking at one end of the floor. Sochan is a fantastic defender, and my contention is that he will add more to the table (defense) than he takes off it (offense), and would do a better job of that in the starting lineup where Fox and Wemby will be using up the lion's share of the possessions.
Sochan can ask for whatever he wants regardless of his potential fit on other teams. The risks of letting him hit RFA and not extending are that he improves his play enough next season to warrant more than he would have gotten in an extension, and that he might get pissed off at having to wait a year (risking a major injury) and ask the Spurs not to match any offer, which the Spurs would likely grant the way they tend to operate.
I don't see how that disproves my point.
And anyway, Sochan's TS% this year is 0.600. That's above league average and should be perfectly acceptable from the 5th option.
IMO, this is the way. I would simply let him hit RFA next year and see what the market looks like. You may even find you're better off just renouncing him if he doesn't take a step forward next season.
yeah the only good reason to extend him is if he takes a very team friendly deal, and i dont see why he would do that. he'd rather bet on himself and see if he can play himself into a nice payday. if he improves enough to warrant it, i'd be gald to pay him at that time
we are at a point where we cant just extend everybody with a pulse
If Spurs propose to him something like 100/5, which they should. He would have have 130/5 deal already in the bag, which he cant have, to refuse it. Its 100 mil, he would be set for life at age 22.
And how would he prove himself in roster behind Wemby, Fox, Castle, 2025 FRP and Vassell ? Noone would overpay defensive specialis and dont see him putting some good raw numbers. I can see him putting some decent adavanced metrics.
With Sochan on the floor it hurts Castle and Fox as Sochan's man can drift into the lane and make it harder for Fox and Castle to get to the basket which is their strenghts.
Like others have said until Sochan can shoot well enough that his shot needs to be guarded then he is a team liability on offense.
It would be interesting to know what Castle's shooting stats are with Sochan on the floor as compared to when Sochan is not on the floor.
No one would overpay defensive specialists... so we should?
If he's going to be behind all those guys, why are you so eager to pay him 5/100?
Sochan is a very good defender, but I wouldn't call him fantastic.
And who's saying that the 3pt shooter I suggested wouldn't be a good defender?
Would you take Sochan over PJ Washington?
If we're talking about players who aren't elite defensively, you think Naz Reid or Aldama would make our starting lineup worse than Jeremy?
Those three are my preferred realistic targets for PF position.
Just look at our current roster. If we exclude players without enough volume, our 3pt% is tragic.
Barnes 43%
CP3 38%
Champ 36%
Wemby 35%
Devin 35%
Keldon 33%
Castle 29% (will improve)
Fox 27% (finger issue)
We need at least one more elite shooter like Barnes and a couple more 36-38% shooters.
Unexpected leaps can happen, but I don't really believe in miracles.The risks of letting him hit RFA and not extending are that he improves his play enough next season to warrant more than he would have gotten in an extension
The only noticable improvement across all those categories is his FG% this season, mostly because the ball has been taken away from him and he's a finisher who doesn't create much.
It's the Ben Simmons syndrome. Not in terms of work ethic, but in terms of not developing any skills and being the same player he was in his rookie year, just more experienced.
What's he going to do? Bank on someone offering him a good deal even though he has no offensive game whatsoever? Cap situation has changed a lot with the new CBA and every competent GM will be really careful with role player contracts.and that he might get pissed off at having to wait a year (risking a major injury) and ask the Spurs not to match any offer
Modern NBA is a two-way game. There's very little room for specialists in the playoffs. Elite shooters who can't defend get benched, but the same thing happens to elite defenders who have no offensive game.
It disproves your point because some players warrant minutes based on their potential. It's true that not many teams would be starting Castle if this was his ceiling, but Jeremy hasn't shown this isn't his current ceiling. That's the issue.I don't see how that disproves my point.
As much as I hate Lebron's gimmicks, "two points aren't two points" is one of the best things he ever said.Sochan's TS% this year is 0.600. That's above league average and should be perfectly acceptable from the 5th option.
Already explained it, but Jeremy's TS% went up because he's not asked to do anything other than score easy baskets and fight for offensive rebounds.
His output is acceptable for 5th option, but the question is what percentage of total cap would you give to 5th option? Even if we include both ends of the floor, best case for Jeremy is 4th option and that's also unlikely.
I'd personally keep him as the glue guy and enforcer, defensive specialist who can do the dirty work off the bench, but he shouldn't be a player that influences other moves. If we can get better wings, tough luck for him.
You don’t understand Ben Simmons career at all. He never failed to progress. In his first 4 seasons,he was all rookie, 3 time all star, 2 times all D, and one time All NBA. That is SERIOUS ing progress for the first 4 years. He stands a very good chance of being out of the league after 8 seasons at age 28. That is literally nothing like any trajectory that Sochan is on or could ever be on. The only person I can compare Simmons to is Nikola Tesla, who spent the first half of his career unveiling innovative invention after invention, and the second half announcing grandiose theories backed by nothing, and coming inventions that never materialized.Sochan is a very good defender, but I wouldn't call him fantastic.
And who's saying that the 3pt shooter I suggested wouldn't be a good defender?
Would you take Sochan over PJ Washington?
If we're talking about players who aren't elite defensively, you think Naz Reid or Aldama would make our starting lineup worse than Jeremy?
Those three are my preferred realistic targets for PF position.
Just look at our current roster. If we exclude players without enough volume, our 3pt% is tragic.
Barnes 43%
CP3 38%
Champ 36%
Wemby 35%
Devin 35%
Keldon 33%
Castle 29% (will improve)
Fox 27% (finger issue)
We need at least one more elite shooter like Barnes and a couple more 36-38% shooters.
Unexpected leaps can happen, but I don't really believe in miracles.
The only noticable improvement across all those categories is his FG% this season, mostly because the ball has been taken away from him and he's a finisher who doesn't create much.
It's the Ben Simmons syndrome. Not in terms of work ethic, but in terms of not developing any skills and being the same player he was in his rookie year, just more experienced.
What's he going to do? Bank on someone offering him a good deal even though he has no offensive game whatsoever? Cap situation has changed a lot with the new CBA and every competent GM will be really careful with role player contracts.
Modern NBA is a two-way game. There's very little room for specialists in the playoffs. Elite shooters who can't defend get benched, but the same thing happens to elite defenders who have no offensive game.
It disproves your point because some players warrant minutes based on their potential. It's true that not many teams would be starting Castle if this was his ceiling, but Jeremy hasn't shown this isn't his current ceiling. That's the issue.
As much as I hate Lebron's gimmicks, "two points aren't two points" is one of the best things he ever said.
Already explained it, but Jeremy's TS% went up because he's not asked to do anything other than score easy baskets and fight for offensive rebounds.
His output is acceptable for 5th option, but the question is what percentage of total cap would you give to 5th option? Even if we include both ends of the floor, best case for Jeremy is 4th option and that's also unlikely.
I'd personally keep him as the glue guy and enforcer, defensive specialist who can do the dirty work off the bench, but he shouldn't be a player that influences other moves. If we can get better wings, tough luck for him.
Simmons made progress if we're talking achievements, but he was the same player in his rookie and fourth season.
He was very good right away, but that was his ceiling for whatever reason.
Jeremy looks like he's also not going to make any relevant leaps from his rookie season.
Don't overcomplicate everything, ffs.
Simmons year 1-4 is a plateau that nearly any player would take for a career. I’m not the one over complicating things. Your pretzel logic and tortured comparisons are the very definition of overcomplicating. Any time anyone want to throw shade at a player, they call him a Ben Simmons type of guy, and it’s never valid,because there’s never been another case of a player on the cusp of supers om who fell off a cliff that hard. Never once.
Yes, you are overcomplicating because you have this weird obsession with being a smartass.
I think I was clear enough when I made my point, it's just that you took it in a completely different direction because that's what you do.
Ben Simmons syndrome: Player's rookie season level being close to their peak ceiling.
Now stop being a smartass and watch the game.
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