Spurs Select F Jeremy Sochan with the 9th Pick in the 2022 NBA Draft

[DAF86]

Would you rather have Jeremy shooting 20% on 1.4 or 34% with a nice backspin?

I don't know why those have to be the options . 34% on miniscule volume isn't good at all. Stop trying to pretend it is.

[couchman]

After watching this horrific defence the last few weeks I’m inclined to have the team lean into a defensive iden y going forward.
Fox, Castle, Barnes, Sochan, Wemby has the potential total to play very good D.
On offense we don’t need Sochan to shoot 3s because he becomes the PNR roller with Fox or Castle, while Wemby gets to play off ball as a spot up shooter and slasher.
This can increase Wemby’s efficiency and stamina to have him truly play a KD style role on offense.
Sochan sets better picks and rolls to the basket better than Wemby anyways.

[Mal]

No one would overpay defensive specialists... so we should?

If he's going to be behind all those guys, why are you so eager to pay him 5/100?

MLE is 18 mil. That's slight above it. You have to pay your players, dont be cheap.

110% of MLE is market value.

[John B]

After watching this horrific defence the last few weeks I’m inclined to have the team lean into a defensive iden y going forward.
Fox, Castle, Barnes, Sochan, Wemby has the potential total to play very good D.
On offense we don’t need Sochan to shoot 3s because he becomes the PNR roller with Fox or Castle, while Wemby gets to play off ball as a spot up shooter and slasher.
This can increase Wemby’s efficiency and stamina to have him truly play a KD style role on offense.
Sochan sets better picks and rolls to the basket better than Wemby anyways.

You know that pick n roll also requires the roller to shoot occasionally not just roll to the basket, right?

[Mal]

You know that pick n roll also requires the roller to shoot occasionally not just roll to the basket, right?

No, its not. If you roll every single time, and defense respect it, its either creating mismatch or bringing help defender to paint, leaving someone open for 3

[exstatic]

You know that pick n roll also requires the roller to shoot occasionally not just roll to the basket, right?

Shooting out of that pick action is called a pick and pop, so the pick and roll is 100% roll, hence the name.

[MannyIsGod]

I never claimed that this was an endpoint, or that he was a finished product. Some folks here just don’t want to even acknowledge improvement in the percentage and the overall shot, with the 45 degree axial tilt gone. Misery and pessimism are powerful drugs,I guess.

A short term increase in shooting percentage may or not be indicative of an improvement. Sochan has had months where he shot very high 3%. So have others like Keldon. Unless it lasts its not improvement just short term variance.

Its not about misery or pessimism but realism. You want to latch onto any short term trend and act like it is real but that's not how things work and I can point you to a lot of examples that show why. You're projecting man, other people aren't being pessimistic you're just not realistic and you're not using stats properly.

[MannyIsGod]

https://www.basketball-reference.com...01/splits/2024

[MannyIsGod]

IMO, this is the way. I would simply let him hit RFA next year and see what the market looks like. You may even find you're better off just renouncing him if he doesn't take a step forward next season.

Exactly this. Spurs can not afford to lock up mediocre players in anymore long term contracts.

[scott]

MLE is 18 mil. That's slight above it. You have to pay your players, dont be cheap.

110% of MLE is market value.

Expected MLE next year is $14.1MM. 110% would be $15.5. 4/62 sounds about right for Sochan.

[scott]

A short term increase in shooting percentage may or not be indicative of an improvement. Sochan has had months where he shot very high 3%. So have others like Keldon. Unless it lasts its not improvement just short term variance.

Its not about misery or pessimism but realism. You want to latch onto any short term trend and act like it is real but that's not how things work and I can point you to a lot of examples that show why. You're projecting man, other people aren't being pessimistic you're just not realistic and you're not using stats properly.

Can't believe you'd suggest that the guy who said "Devin Vassell has definitely turned a ing corner" after a 4 game sample would confuse short term trends with real change.

[Jordan Jackson]

I just saw a tweet from some Spur fan declaring Sochan is easily going to get 5/125. We don’t understand basketball blah blah blah.

I can tell you this, if the Spurs did that we would have to have a serious conversation about this front office. That would be irresponsible and insane.

[KobesAchilles]

Expected MLE next year is $14.1MM. 110% would be $15.5. 4/62 sounds about right for Sochan.

These people keep making up numbers to back up their supposedly sane idea of giving Sochan $100 for his contract. I’ve already stated the MLE is 14 million a year and that’s our end point. The max I’d offer him is the max other teams would offer him. There’s zero reason to bid against ourselves with a bench player/ low end starter. I want to know the contender that would offer him more than the MLE. There is none. And if a ty team wants to offer him a huge contract then let them. He’d look real good in red, white, and blue for the wizards

[scott]

These people keep making up numbers to back up their supposedly sane idea of giving Sochan $100 for his contract. I’ve already stated the MLE is 14 million a year and that’s our end point. The max I’d offer him is the max other teams would offer him. There’s zero reason to bid against ourselves with a bench player/ low end starter. I want to know the contender that would offer him more than the MLE. There is none. And if a ty team wants to offer him a huge contract then let them. He’d look real good in red, white, and blue for the wizards

Yeah, it’s legitimately nuts to want to offer Jeremy Sochan the kind of money that Aldama or Naz will get. No GM in their right mind would choose Sochan over either of those guys right now, all else equal.

[dbestpro]

The problem with Sochan is when he has a good game he goes into hero ball mode and stinks for several games to follow.

[Seventyniner]

Sochan is a very good defender, but I wouldn't call him fantastic.
And who's saying that the 3pt shooter I suggested wouldn't be a good defender?
Would you take Sochan over PJ Washington?
If we're talking about players who aren't elite defensively, you think Naz Reid or Aldama would make our starting lineup worse than Jeremy?
Those three are my preferred realistic targets for PF position.

Hard to say if I'd take Washington over Sochan without knowing who the other starting forward is.
If the Spurs get Reid or Aldama I would start Sochan alongside him and bring Barnes off the bench. Sochan guards from 1-4 anyway, it's not like he has to be a PF only.

Just look at our current roster. If we exclude players without enough volume, our 3pt% is tragic.

The Spurs are 18th in the league in 3PT% this season, close to the Lakers and above the Rockets. A high 3PT% is not necessary to be a good team, and Sochan shooting f

The only noticable improvement across all those categories is his FG% this season, mostly because the ball has been taken away from him and he's a finisher who doesn't create much.
It's the Ben Simmons syndrome. Not in terms of work ethic, but in terms of not developing any skills and being the same player he was in his rookie year, just more experienced.

You're only looking at totals. He made a mini-leap this season: he's playing 4.1 MPG fewer than last season (14%, not an insignificant number) and is putting up the same REB/BLK/STL numbers. His rebounding and shooting percentages have been much better this season than last.

It disproves your point because some players warrant minutes based on their potential. It's true that not many teams would be starting Castle if this was his ceiling, but Jeremy hasn't shown this isn't his current ceiling. That's the issue.

The original statement was this.

Sochan isn’t a starter on any other contending team and yet you want him to start for us?

The same argument says Castle shouldn't start for us right now because he wouldn't start for other contenders. Nothing to do with potential.

As much as I hate Lebron's gimmicks, "two points aren't two points" is one of the best things he ever said.
Already explained it, but Jeremy's TS% went up because he's not asked to do anything other than score easy baskets and fight for offensive rebounds.

What's wrong with that?

His output is acceptable for 5th option, but the question is what percentage of total cap would you give to 5th option? Even if we include both ends of the floor, best case for Jeremy is 4th option and that's also unlikely.

A full MLE salary (9.12% of the cap) would be tied for the 127th highest paid player this season, so on average it would be between the 4th and 5th biggest contract on a team.

I'd personally keep him as the glue guy and enforcer, defensive specialist who can do the dirty work off the bench, but he shouldn't be a player that influences other moves. If we can get better wings, tough luck for him.

Defensive specialist/garbage man/5th option is exactly the kind of player you want in the starting lineup playing most of his minutes with your stars.

[Seventyniner]

Expected MLE next year is $14.1MM. 110% would be $15.5. 4/62 sounds about right for Sochan.

A 4-year deal starting at $15.5M with max 8% raises is 69/4. But Sochan's extension wouldn't start until 2026-2027 so that $15.5M starting number will be 100% of the MLE at that time, not 110%. A 110% of MLE deal starting in 2026-2027 would be 76/4.

Adding a 5th year makes it 90/5 (100% MLE) or 99/5 (110%).

[scott]

A full MLE salary (9.12% of the cap) would be tied for the 127th highest paid player this season, so on average it would be between the 4th and 5th biggest contract on a team.

He's a 33rd percentile player in LEBRON and 40th percentile player in DARKO. So why so eager to pay him in 72nd percentile of all players (which would be the 127th higher paid player)?

[scott]

A 4-year deal starting at $15.5M with max 8% raises is 69/4. But Sochan's extension wouldn't start until 2026-2027 so that $15.5M starting number will be 100% of the MLE at that time, not 110%. A 110% of MLE deal starting in 2026-2027 would be 76/4.

Adding a 5th year makes it 90/5 (100% MLE) or 99/5 (110%).

(This of course is my opinion if I were the GM, not indicative of what the Spurs would actually do) If he wants an extension this summer, I'm willing to give him a flat deal at next year's MLE. If he wants to start at the MLE the year after, he can wait until a year after. It's pretty simple.

I know you're a big proponent of the 5th year, but I'm not. There is enough risk that this guy next takes the step needed and if that's the case I don't want to be stuck with his 5th year.

[CGD]

Yall are hillarious. You'd think Holt's money was yours.

Keldon got 75M/4year, and I seriously doubt Jermey gets anything less that (adjusted for the new cap). Deal starting in low $20M is totally in play.

[scott]

Yall are hillarious. You'd think Holt's money was yours.

Keldon got 75M/4year, and I seriously doubt Jermey gets anything less that (adjusted for the new cap). Deal starting in low $20M is totally in play.

You're conflating multiple decent points in order to make a terrible one. Congrats?

1) Save for a few cranky boomers, no one gives a about the money. I'm sure most of us are happy that all of these young men are getting rich. Holt isn't going to lower prices or send me a rebate if he decides to be a cheap ass.

2) What a lot of us do care about is how overpaying guys restricts our ability to make the team better. Why not just give everyone the max if it's not our money? What a braindead thing to say.

3) "We made a mistake with Keldon's deal, surely we'll double down and do the same with Sochan!" This one is the icing on the illogical cake. With that said, at this point in Keldon's career, he was actually a better player than Sochan. Year 3 Keldon had a LEBRON WAR of 3.27 compared to 0.99 for Sochan. Vassell was at 1.11 at this point in his career and we gave him more than anyone. So go figure.

[Jordan Jackson]

Yall are hillarious. You'd think Holt's money was yours.

Keldon got 75M/4year, and I seriously doubt Jermey gets anything less that (adjusted for the new cap). Deal starting in low $20M is totally in play.

And they would be stupid to do it. So I expect them to do it.

[Seventyniner]

He's a 33rd percentile player in LEBRON and 40th percentile player in DARKO. So why so eager to pay him in 72nd percentile of all players (which would be the 127th higher paid player)?

First, I guess I'm just an inveterate optimist who thinks Sochan will be a good bit better in 3-4 years than he is now because he's still only 21 and is playing better this season than last. I don't have access to the LEBRON and DARKO stats, how does Sochan look this season compared to last season in those?

Second, I don't think using percentile of player salaries is the best measure when the list includes players on rookie contracts and minimum deals. If each team has 9 players considered rotation-worthy then the 127th would be not much above the median, though it would really be a bit higher because some of those rotation players are on rookie deals or minimums themselves.

[scott]

First, I guess I'm just an inveterate optimist who thinks Sochan will be a good bit better in 3-4 years than he is now because he's still only 21 and is playing better this season than last. I don't have access to the LEBRON and DARKO stats, how does Sochan look this season compared to last season in those?

Here are some free resources for you to look at DARKO and LEBRON stats. You've likely seen me post charts from these sites before.

DARKO: https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/

LEBRON: https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-application/

I also really like CraftedNBA, found at https://craftednba.com/ = their metrics are an composite of popular catch-all metrics, adjusted to the same scale and aggregated. Beyond their PlusMinus metrics, I'm a big fan of their other metrics like ShootingQuality and Portability. It's also an easy place to find other advanced metrics like Nylon Calculus's Versatility Rating, and DRIP. It's worth spending some time on their Glossary Page: https://craftednba.com/glossary

Second, I don't think using percentile of player salaries is the best measure when the list includes players on rookie contracts and minimum deals. If each team has 9 players considered rotation-worthy then the 127th would be not much above the median, though it would really be a bit higher because some of those rotation players are on rookie deals or minimums themselves.

Putting things into percentile terms is the same as just listing it as "the 127th largest" (which you brought up, not me), it just makes it proportional - otherwise it lacks context.

I agree with your premise that the 127th's largest is appropriate for the team's 4th or 5th best player (not is necessarily their 4th or 5th starter)... but that doesn't mean we should pay Sochan that just because he's our 4th or 5th best player (or we expect him to become that). There are other guys who will command that kind of money who are simply better players. I get that you are extremely optimistic on Sochan (which is absolutely fine - and I'm not someone who just wants to give up on him either... I think there is plenty to like about him to want to keep investing in him... for the right price), but I, like a few others, just fundamentally disagree that he's worth the value you're willing to ascribe to him (and likewise, I agree with others that if he were a FA this summer NO ONE would pay him what some folks here are talking about paying him).

With that said, I fully expect the Spurs to overpay him this summer and then I just hope that your optimism on him turns out to be right, because otherwise he'll just be yet another bad contract given out by this FO.

[rankingtear]

MLE is fair for 4 years. He is a development piece at this point cause of the Fox and Castle backcourt. He maxes out at maybe 26 min off the bench when Fox and Castle staggers so you have 3 floor spacers at all times.