https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...25/ar-AA1CkbzVOn Friday, Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan Chase chief economist Michael Feroli told the bank's clients that real GDP growth is now likely to contract by the fourth quarter of the year "under the weight of the tariffs," and that this would likely impact Americans' jobs and personal finances. He estimated that rather than the previous forecast of 1.3% GDP growth this year, the U.S. economy would now shrink by a third of a point.
"The forecasted contraction in economic activity is expected to depress hiring and over time to lift the unemployment rate to 5.3%," he wrote.
JPMorgan isn't the only bank forecasting a recession. According to Bloomberg, Barclays Plc also projected this week that the U.S. economy could soon take a dive, with GDP contracting "consistent with a recession." And while Citigroup stopped short of predicting a U.S. recession, it did adjust total GDP growth expectations this year to just 0.1%.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on April 3, up from -3.7 percent on April 1.
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Now the only weird part there is the improvement from April 1 to April 3. Perhaps the rush to buy stuff before the tariffs. The idea that GDP could be -4% is incredible.
there's a weird wrinkle related to gold that's caused a correction of the Atlanta Fed RealGDP tracker, irrc
I'd be surprised if the seasonal GDP figure turned out that low, or even if it were in contraction
Got damns Xi is a ing G
Dump ed around and found out
Excellent. I recall during his first term the PGA treated him as s .
Who's crying now?
"But I'm President...and their not."
Seems like he's getting younger with all the winning
"trust the plan"
seems more and more out of it to me
Trump's getting old
Melon Usk surrendering
"too bad for you if your business is small"
"boom"
Tourism down? No way!
First we were smarter than the scientists
Then we were smarter than the doctors
So of course we are smarter than economists!
"we had record volume on Black Friday"
WELKER: The markets lost more than $6 trillion in value. Was this disruption always part of the plan?
BESSENT: We had record volume on Friday and everything is working very smoothly. So the American people can take great comfort in that.
Also lots of tourists would come here for shopping.
Cause it was cheaper than other countries.
Thats gonna end
Holy
This niglet got wrecket
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