NIL is changing things. He could be making $8 million staying for another year, for example. The risk is that next year it's still the same teams in the mix (mostly) and he may not go #1.
Like, assuming there are three preferred teams right now. Generously I'm going to say SAS with Phila and Brooklyn. Those are good markets and have pretty decent structure. Then there are some other teams that have good fanbases or other advantages, like Portland.
It's not clear what teams will be bad next year. Detroit got very good this year, for example. Those preferred teams above may not be contenders for top 4 picks next year.
I dunno. Seriously doubt he stays, but if it's Charlotte, , I'd play college for another year. Terrible franchise, bad fan base, a team with a guy who beat up his wife, a guy who brought a gun to a friend at a nightclub, and a 'franchise' guy who just chucks up the wildest . I can't imagine wanting to play for them.
But the NIL does change things. Takes a hit on the long-term, but he's still high school age and rolling the dice after taking a cool $8 million or so playing at Duke isn't a bad option.