Reply With Quote
Well, I've got McNeely 6 on my Spurs board in the 3rd tier. So unless someone higher falls, I'd be happy taking him there. We cpuld do worse than a McNeely/ Fleming or McNeely/Bryant draft
Analytics Deep Dive 3
- Adj Team Def Eff: Team defensive efficiency (points allowed by opponent per 100 possessions) with player on the court, adjusted for strength of opponent players faced. A lower value is better.
This analysis is based on how well a team’s defense plays when they are on the floor. Doesn’t necessarily mean any of these guys are high level defenders but they are playing well enough within their role to be effective.
Top Defensive Team Efficiency Players prospects in this draft
- Milos Uzan - 82.0
- Cooper Flagg - 82.8
- Sion James - 83.0
- Kon Knueppel- 84.3
- Tyrese Proctor - 85.0
- Chaz Lanier - 85.4
- Thomas Sorber - 85.9
- Khaman Maluach - 85.9
- Alex Condon - 86.1
- Danny Wolf - 86.2
- Derik Queen - 86.7
- Walter Clayton - 86.9
- Jase Richardson - 87.4
- Vladislav Goldin - 88.0
- Boogie Fland - 88.1
- Adou Thiero - 88.3
- Kam Jones - 89.0
- Johni Broome - 89.3
- Isaiah Evans - 90.1
- Miles Byrd - 90.4
- Tahaad Pettiford - 91.2
- Ryan Kalkbrenner - 91.8
- Liam Mcneely - 92.0
- Nique Clifford - 92.3
- Darrion Williams - 92.7
Not surprisingly players from Duke and Houston made it high on this list because they were apart of the best defenses in the country. Main takeaway I get from this is that these type of players may not have as big of a learning curve when learning how to play defense in the NBA.
Well, I've got McNeely 6 on my Spurs board in the 3rd tier. So unless someone higher falls, I'd be happy taking him there. We cpuld do worse than a McNeely/ Fleming or McNeely/Bryant draft
Analytics Deep Dive 4
Defense Rating - measure of how many points a player gives up per 100 possessions
Top players in defensive rating in this draft class lower score is better. This is a good stat for on ball defense
- Jojo Tugler 87.0
- Cooper Flagg - 89.5
- Derik Queen - 92.4
- Miles Byrd - 93.7
- Khaman Maluach - 94.3
- Johni Broome - 94.8
- Rasheer Fleming - 95.0
- Nique Clifford - 96.1
- Alex Condon - 96.1
- Danny Wolf - 96.1
- Thomas Sorber - 96.7
- Sion James - 96.8
- Kobe Johnson - 96.9
- Trevon Brazile - 98.6
- Milos Uzan - 98.7
- Kon Knueppel - 98.8
- Coleman Hawkins - 99.0
- Adou Thiero - 99.2
- Ryan Kalkbrenner - 99.4
- Vladislav Goldin - 100.0
- Carter Bryant - 100.1
- Jase Richardson - 100.3
- Collin Murray-Boyles - 100.4
- Yaxel Lendeborg - 100.7
- VJ Edgecombe - 102.5
I’m pretty sure JoJo Tugler is going back to school but I wanted to mention him because he was at the top of all these defensive analytics. He was the driving force behind Houston’s great defense and may be someone to watch in next years draft. One of the best on ball defensive players college basketball has ever seen according to the numbers. A lot of these analytics can be deceiving but he is the real deal.
Knueppel just seems like a player that BW would love.
He seems to like them bigger guards (Vassell, Primo, Castle).
I would love a Knueppel and Fleming combination if they are on the board.
Analytics Deep Dive 5
If defense is not your thing and you just want the spurs to score points (despite defense and rebounding being the clear need) maybe a look at the best offensive prospects will catch your attention.
Offensive rating is the estimate of points produced by a player per 100 possessions.
These are the top players from this draft class in offensive Rating
- Khaman Maluach - 147.3
- Cedric Coward - 135.2
- Kon Knueppel - 133.7
- Ryan Kalkbrenner - 132.7
- Jase Richardson - 132.0
- Asa Newell - 131.5
- Sion James - 131.1
- Koby Brea - 130.1
- John Tonje - 128.2
- Yaxel Lendeborg - 127.3
- Cooper Flagg - 126.3
- Isaiah Evans - 125.4
- Walter Clayton Jr. - 124.4
- Joan Beringer - 124.0
- Rasheer Fleming - 123.9
- Alex Condon - 122.8
- Milos Uzan - 122.0
- Johni Broome - 121.7
- Vladislav Goldin - 121.5
- Trevon Brazile - 120.9
- Adou Thiero - 120.6
- Collin Murray-Boyles - 119.6
- Eric Dixon - 119.5
- Kam Jones - 119.4
- Mark Sears - 119.4
- Nique Clifford - 119.2
- VJ Edgecombe - 119.1
- Dylan Harper - 118.1
- Will Riley - 118.0
- Kobe Johnson 118.0
- Chaz Lanier - 117.2
- Derik Queen - 117.0
- Labaron Philon - 116.8
- Darrion Williams - 116.8
- Jaxson Robinson - 116.7
- Carter Bryant - 116.5
- Sergio De Larrea - 115.6
- Hansen Yang - 115.5
- Tre Johnson - 115.1
- Tahaad Pettiford - 115.1
These are the top 40
Some notes. The centers are outliers so I wouldn’t look to far into their high ratings because they mostly rate high because of their high efficiency
Disappointing not seeing Liam Mcneely or Ace Bailey on this list at all. Has to worry you a little that they rate so bad offensively. Bailey kind of gets a pass because he had bad coaching on a bad team but Mcneely played for one of the best coaches in the country.
Possibly Knueppel but I think Spurs like players that play at both ends of the floor. The only player I see right now is Collin Murray Boyles.
Analytics Deep Dive 6
- OBPR: Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the offensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the offensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the defensive strength of the opponent’s players on the floor. OBPR is interpreted as the number of offensive points per 100 possessions above D1 average expected by the player’s team if the player were on the court with 9 other average players. A higher rating is better.
These are the top offensive players in this draft class according to OBPR
- Cooper Flagg - 6.48
- Johni Broome - 6.16
- Kam Jones - 5.45
- Kon Knueppel - 5.23
- Ryan Nembhard - 5.18
- Mark Sears - 5.17
- Walter Clayton - 5.14
- Isaiah Evans - 5.08
- Tyrese Proctor - 4.95
- Darrion Williams - 4.95
- Eric Dixon - 4.74
- Will Riley - 4.59
- Tahaad Pettiford - 4.59
- Nique Clifford - 4.44
- Alex Karaban - 4.29
- Koby Brea - 4.28
- Yaxel Lendeborg - 4.22
- Khaman Maluach - 4.19
- Sion James - 4.19
- Ryan Kalkbrenner - 3.94
- Dylan Harper - 3.90
- Alex Condon - 3.88
- Milos Uzan - 3.86
- Jeremiah Fears - 3.75
- John Tonje - 3.73
- Egor Denim - 3.72
- Labaron Philon - 3.67
- Jase Richardson - 3.57
- Kasparas Jakucionis - 3.21
- Derik Queen - 3.19
- Carter Bryant - 3.12
- Collin Murray-Boyles - 3.05
- Chaz Lanier - 2.96
- Ace Bailey - 2.79
- Vladislav Goldin - 2.79
- Tre Johnson - 2.77
- Asa Newell - 2.76
- Rasheer Fleming - 2.72
- Boogie Fland - 2.71
- Vj Edgecombe - 2.66
Top 40
I think some of these guys are outliers that were good college scorers but wont make it in the NBA. That said I think it’s a decent barometer of offensive talent without factoring in talent/skill and ability for growth. Once again no Liam Mcneely is eye popping.
Eh, Knueppel was widely seen as a good defender despite athletic limitations and VJ Edgecombe stands to be a very good defender also with nice offensive potential.
Analytics Deep Dive 7
- Box OBPR: Box Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating is an estimate of a player’s offensive value, based only on his individual box stats. This serves as a prior starting point when calculating OBPR.
So basically factors in best offense players based on bottom line box scores and not much else
Here are they top players from this class
- Cooper Flagg - 6.97
- Johni Broome - 6.15
- Mark Sears - 5.73
- Kon Knueppel - 5.65
- Ryan Nembhard - 5.63
- Walter Clayton - 5.07
- Darrion Williams - 5.03
- Kam Jones - 5.02
- John Tonje - 4.87
- Eric Dixon - 4.81
- Tahaad Pettiford - 4.73
- Nique Clifford - 4.67
- Tyrese Proctor - 4.67
- Labaron Philon - 4.65
- Sion James - 4.51
- Khaman Maluach - 4.45
- Ryan Kalkbrenner - 4.43
- Alex Condon - 4.37
- Alex Karaban - 4.20
- Koby Brea - 4.19
- Jaxson Robinson - 4.17
- Egor Denim - 4.08
- Chaz Lanier - 4.03
- VJ Edgecombe - 4.03
- Isaiah Evans - 4.01
- Asa Newell - 4.00
- Jeremiah Fears - 3.92
- Boogie Fland - 3.90
- Jase Richardson - 3.87
- Will Riley - 3.85
- Dylan Harper - 3.72
- Yaxel Lendeborg - 3.69
- Liam McNeely - 3.67
- Milos Uzan - 3.63
- Kasparas Jakucionis - 3.61
- Vladislav Goldin - 3.60
- Tre Johnson - 3.57
- Danny Wolf - 3.46
- Kobe Johnson - 3.36
- Adou Thiero - 3.23
Top 40
Once again plenty of outliers that won’t make it in NBA but Liam Mcneely finally showed up on an offensive analysis so that’s good I guess. I do find it impressive for these freshman that keep showing up on these lists.
Analytics Deep Dive 8
Maybe you just want the Spurs to draft the most well rounded players that will help the team as a whole on offense and defense.
- BPR: Bayesian Performance Rating is the sum of a player’s OBPR and DBPR. This rating is the ultimate measure of a player’s overall value to his team when he is on the floor. BPR is interpreted as the number of points per 100 possessions better than the opponent the player’s team is expected to be if the player were on the court with 9 other average players. A higher rating is better.
This rates players based on their overall impact.
These are the top players in this class according to this analysis
- Cooper Flagg - 10.74
- Johni Broome - 9.14
- Kon Knueppel - 7.88
- Kam Jones - 7.50
- Walter Clayton - 7.19
- Nique Clifford - 7.02
- Alex Condon - 6.97
- Darrion Williams - 6.93
- Tyrese Proctor - 6.88
- Ryan Kalkbrenner - 6.70
- Sion James - 6.62
- Ryan Nembhard - 6.58
- Khaman Maluach - 6.52
- Derik Queen - 6.51
- Mark Sears - 6.16
- Milos Uzan - 6.13
- Danny Wolf - 6.03
- Collin Murray-Boyles - 5.83
- Yaxel Lendeborg - 5.79
- Jase Richardson - 5.68
- Kobe Johnson - 5.66
- John Tonje - 5.56
- Carter Bryant - 5.48
- Will Riley - 5.41
- Tahaad Pettiford - 5.37
- Vladislav Goldin - 5.33
- Thomas Sorber - 5.29
- Alex Karaban - 5.28
- Eric Dixon - 5.26
- Boogie Fland - 5.18
- Labaron Philon - 5.04
- Adou Thiero - 4.95
- Egor Denim - 4.85
- Rasheer Fleming - 4.78
- Jaxson Robinson - 4.78
- VJ Edgecombe - 4.74
- Jeremiah Fears - 4.71
- Chaz Lanier - 4.70
- Coleman Hawkins - 4.65
- Dylan Harper - 4.63
- Liam Mcneely - 4.51
- Ace Bailey - 4.45
- Miles Byrd - 4.33
- Kasparas Jakucionis - 4.24
- Koby Brea - 4.20
- Asa Newell - 3.92
- Xavian Lee - 3.77
- Tre Johnson - 3.73
- Hunter Sallis - 3.23
- Maxime Raynaud - 3.15
top 50 in BPR
I think this as a good barometer for the most pro ready prospects. I could see any one of the top 1/3 of these guys making an all rookie team with the exception of Mark Sears. Although he could be a high level G League guy.
The 2nd third of players could go either way but obviously need some development. Could also be pro ready depending on fit
The 3rd set you may need to temper your expectations because they may need more time to develop. Guys like Ace Bailey, Asa Newell, Tre Johnson and Maxime Raynaud are extremely talented but may need more development to reach their potential
Analytics deep dive 9
Maybe you would like the Spurs to draft the most efficient players
These are the top players according to the Player Efficiency Rankings. An overall spectrum for how efficient a player is factoring in both sides of the ball. Player efficiency Rating measures a players per-minute performance, while adjusting for pace. (League Average is 15.0)
- Johni Broome - 30.9
- Cooper Flagg - 30.4
- Yaxel Lendeborg - 29.8
- Ryan Kalkbrenner - 29.1
- Collin Murray-Boyles - 27.8
- Asa Newell - 26.1
- Cedric Coward - 26.0
- Vladislav Goldin - 25.7
- Eric Dixon - 25.7
- Maxime Raynaud - 25.6
- Khaman Maluach - 25.5
- Nique Clifford - 25.1
- Adou Thiero - 25.1
- John Tonje - 24.8
- Derik Queen - 24.7
- Thomas Sorber - 24.7
- Dylan Harper - 24.6
- Kam Jones - 24.5
- Rasheer Fleming - 24.1
- Alex Condon - 22.8
- Xavian Lee - 22.7
- Vj Edgecombe - 22.1
- Walter Clayton Jr. - 21.6
- Darrion Williams - 21.6
- Kon Knueppel - 21.3
- Jase Richardson - 20.7
- Jeremiah Fears - 20.7
Top 27 players in PER
These are the most efficient prospects. I think any Freshman that’s on this list it bodes well for them that they are so efficient at a young age. Any upperclassmen I don’t think it says much other than they were good college players. Pretty much all the prospects that are considered 1st rounders grade over 15.0 which is league average so no concerns there.
Analytics deep Dive 10
Final analytics research I’ll do for now. One of the best barometers in all of sports to determine how much a player will help you win is win shares
These are the top win shares per 40 minutes. An estimate of number of wins a player generates per 40 minutes (the amount of minutes played in college basketball)
- Cooper Flagg - .296
- Khaman Maluach - .261
- Johni Broome - .250
- Ryan Kalkbrenner - .235
- Kon Knueppel - .232
- Yaxel Lendeborg - .228
- John Tonje - .222
- Nique Clifford - .220
- Asa Newell - .217
- Derik Queen - .216
- Jase Richardson - .211
- Walter Clayton - .205
- Rasheer Fleming - .205
- Sion James - .205
- Adou Thiero - .205
- Vladislav Goldin - .204
- Alex Condon - .204
- Cedric Coward - .202
- Kam Jones - .202
- Collin Murray-Boyles - .200
These are the only 20 prospects that broke the .200 threshold. They are multi-faceted players that contribute to winning. Doesn’t always mean they will be good pros but it’s a good stat to measure a players compe iveness. Players that contribute in multiple ways because they are active.
Thanks for sharing scottspurs. Glad most of my eye tests match the metrics
I’ve been refreshing myself on how Timmy played in college and early years and I wonder if he were to come out today (and not change anything with his play style) if people here would easily dismiss him because he doesn’t look like he defends much out on the perimeter or shoot 3’s often.
well yeah duncan would be a center today. you are looking at an era where most team basically started 2 guys that played like centers, and just referred to the shorter one of the two as their power forward
Duncan being a center today matters very little if we’re looking at it from the Spurs perspective and what they should do. So what if he is? He’s a legend. You figure out how to play both. Tim Duncan rebirthed would figure out how to do that. Are you saying they can’t be a better version of what Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley is today? Kind of ridiculous to pass up on Tim Duncan because of fit concerns.
This post pretty much confirms Tim wouldn’t go #1 (despite all the talent he has) because of his style being perceived as not being tailor suited for specific teams. In reality, his talent should supersede everything else and it should be a no brainer to draft him no matter what team construction you have.
Last edited by Dejounte; 04-14-2025 at 05:52 AM.
The crazy thing is, a lot of Duncan’s highlight videos do not show much that pop off the screen. With Duncan, you “had to be there” to experience his greatness. Today’s media frenzy and hoop fans who go crazy over flash vs substance would for sure cause him to be drafted later than he should. Flagg probably would be drafted over him even if people knew what Duncan was destined for greatness, which is absolutely crazy. You’d really have to take your time and watch him, and not just be amazed by athleticism or some surface level factor. It’s why I can appreciate what Sorber brings to the table, and why I’m glad the metrics scottspurs provided supports it.
Last edited by Dejounte; 04-14-2025 at 06:13 AM.
Wait when did i say I’d pass on him
im all for taking clear BPA over fit. I’ve said it take Harper over Bailey/VJ even though the fit is much less obvious
i like Sorber as well I’m just lower on him than you. I think the hawks are likely to take him with the kings pick fwiw
I said: “people here would easily dismiss him…”Wait when did i say I’d pass on him
im all for taking clear BPA over fit. I’ve said it take Harper over Bailey/VJ even though the fit is much less obvious
i like Sorber as well I’m just lower on him than you. I think the hawks are likely to take him with the kings pick fwiw
you said: “well yeah…”
what’s the well yeah in response to?
Maybe it’s an agreement with your statement?
Well yeah…?
What if we pick number 2 or number 4 in the draft?
This will be my dream line up except replace Wolf with Kon.
Trade Vassel for Cameron; sign Naz and send Keldon and Brahnam out for cash;
Sign A back up center with minimum, such as Brook Lopez.
This will be a championship contender.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
