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we need a PF who plays like a C on offense and like a PF on defense, but can guard bigger players
Queen's ceiling is Sengun; Fleming ceiling is Naz Raid. Which one do you all want? I'm curious.
I still pick Fleming. Current Spurs + Naz Reid will beat the current rockets.
Queen would have value if Wemby has a career-ending injury, God forbidden.
we need a PF who plays like a C on offense and like a PF on defense, but can guard bigger players
Shout out to whoever unplugged and re-plugged the hamster wheel back at HQ. Site running 1000x better now.
Maybe enough people just clicked enough LensCrafters links to upgrade us to 2003 standard speeds.
My last Board before we have combine numbers and interview rumors. Don't pay to much attention to the ranking, look more into the tiers. For instance, there's not much difference between #5 and #9. It just depends on how you want to build a team through this draft and FA.
Tier 1:
1. Cooper Flagg
Tier 2:
2. Dylan Harper
3. Ace Bailey
4. V.J. Edgecombe
Tier 3:
5. Jon Knueppel
6. Liam McNeely
7. Kasparas Jackucionis
8. Tre Johnson
9. Jase Richardson
Tier 4:
10. Carter Bryant
11. Thomas Sorber
12. Egor Demin
13. Sergio De Larrea
14. Shaman Maluach
15. Rasheer Fleming
Tier 5:
16. Noa Essengue
17. Jeremiah Fears
18. Derick Queen
19. Asa Newell
20. Ben Saraf
21. Will Riley
22. Nolan Traore
23. Collins Murray-Boyles
Tier 6:
24. Walter Clayton jr
25. Danny Wolf
26. Alex Condon
27. Tyrese Proctor
28. Alex Karaban
29. Dink Pate
30. Ryan Kalkbrenner
Last edited by mo7888; 04-15-2025 at 03:45 PM.
Holy you’re right. What the happened
i guess they were finally concerned when we started talking about a new forum
You don’t pass on the all star, man. Come on
Yes Bro. It would be a basketball earthquake to reduce touches of castle, Fox and reinvent new offensive and defensive schemes with a new what-so-called skilled big. We would miss playoff again next season. Imagine the opposite team will make raining of 3s since Queen/Sorber cannot defend the perimeter. At the same time, we would brick 3s after 3s because we don't have enough shooters.
In the above scenarios, we would grab a few more rebounds, but won't be enough to make a difference In the modern basketball, making and defending the 3s are just too important..
I don't see Queen as an ideal fit. We have enough offensive firepower and really need defense. The problem is we need a very versatile PF. Like someone who can guard C's in the post, do some weakside shotblocking, can guard on the perimeter as well, crashes the boards, can be a roll man on offense and step out to shoot the 3. Which is why the Naz Reid/John Collins type of profile would be ideal. That type of player is not in this draft, so you gotta take a swing at someone who has a chance to become that.
Fleming is definitely who I want with the ATL pick. Drafting him with the Spurs pick would be a reach. I remain high on Kon, if you look at all the metrics scottspurs posted he just plays a brand of winning basketball in all areas of the game.
Collins would be ideal, but Naz wouldn't. The biggest criticism Timberwolves fans have for him is that he plays smaller than his size.
As for guarding Cs, year two Wemby already matched up well against everyone, he won't have any issues with that. Spurs just need to help him not to be outnumbered inside.
Holy crap like all decided to go to the buffet bar at the same time…
Spurs need a big man. Think Zubac getting 20 rebounds from us. There’s Queen, Sorber or Malauch (if he still has visa) at 8th.
15th is a big swing at athletic defensive ala Tari Eason. Fleming, Bryant, Wolf (I will consider 7 footer 250 lbs with handles athletic)
SRP Spurs need a backup PG - Boogie Fland
Last edited by John B; 04-15-2025 at 04:48 PM.
Knueppel and Sorber (if stays in and the foot checks out) would be ideal, but I continue to feel like the former won't be available and am getting a bad feeling that they could target Murray-Boyles (would be more amendable if Sochan were getting traded, but yeah right) because of their obsession with non shooters.
Central casting Spur Riley feels like another target.
Johnson, Queen and Fears are the only top 10ish projections I can't see at all.
I see a lot of shooting vs rebounding / interior presence posts here - this seems to be the primary debate with regards to who to play next to Wemby, so I wanted to briefly look at this in successful teams.
First, a point that may or may not be debated:
The number of shooters in a lineup doesn't matter as much as the total gravity of the entire lineup. Steph Curry played with multiple non-shooters and mediocre shooters when he won his le, but his shooting gravity was enough to overcome that.
With that said, I wanted to look at total gravity (total 3PM/100 possessions) of the top teams in the league this year:
NBA Team Lineup 3 PM/100 OKC Thunder SGA-Chet-Jdub-Ihart-Dort 12 Boston Celtics White-Holiday-Brown-Tatum-Porzingis 19.9 Cleveland Cavaliers Garland-Mitc -Strus-Mobley-Allen 15.6 Houston Rockets FVV-Amen-Brooks-Sengun-Green 12.6 Clippers Harden-Powell-Kawhi-Zubac-Bogdanovic/Dunn 14.9 Lakers Doncic-Lebron-Reaves-DFS-Hachimura 18 Magic Black-KCP-Franz-Paolo-WCJ 10.5 Spurs Castle-Fox-Wemby-??-?? 8.8
I used the Magic as a negative control to see what the worst shooting team in the league would look like.
What we see isn't necessarily a surprise:
Boston and the Lakers can run true 5-out offenses and so they have the most team gravity. Jayson Tatum is somehow still underrated and is the most role-malleable superstar in the league.
OKC and Houston show that low total shooting gravity can work in the regular season! Your non-shooter has to be pretty high level at everything else (All-NBA level defensive versatility and big-like rebounding for Amen, high level playmaking and interior toughness for IHart). It'll be interesting to see what OKC does with IHart in the post-season and if he gets played off the floor, as they have the ability to juice their gravity by subbing him out for Jaylin Williams (3.7 3PM/100).
As to how this pertains to the Spurs, Wemby/Fox/Castle are sitting at 8.8 and I'd actually like to see them get that total up to about 9-10 ideally, especially coming from Castle. I'm not sure Wemby can juice his 3s much more than what he did this season. If you can get to that level, a high level shooting wing can get you around 4 3PM/100 (Vassell at 3.9, Champagnie at 4.5). That gets you to around Houston-OKC levels of shooting. As for the forward next to Wemby, what this data seems to suggest is that you can go either shooting or big, and either approach would work. We'll see how these teams do in the playoffs though and whether these non-shooters start getting played off the floor more.
If Bryant is still there when the Spurs pick, he should be the pick. That’s not a reach, most mocks underrate him, based on the numbers. But no other player in this class (outside the top 4) has that combination of tools to work with. Guarrantee that he pans out? Sure not. But at the very least he should turn into a good defender with a decent shot.
the Atlanta pick should be BPA, no matter of position. one player they like will fall. Newell, McNeeley, Queen, Richardson, Jakucionis…….I‘m happy with anyone of this group.
and yes, draft Fleming…….if he is there at #38. he will fall out of the 1st round. seems the Ringer is the only mock to get this right.
^ Like it's always been with hybrid C's (think Duncan and P. Gasol) it's not an either/or next to Wembanyama; it's both, with one or the other taking precedent based on matchup . . .
Porzingis has Tatum or Horford/Kornet
Mobley has Allen or Wade/Hunter
Davis has Lively II/Gafford or Washington
Jackson Jr. has Edey/Clarke (out for reason) or Aldama
Adebayo has Ware or Highsmith/Jacquez Jr.
Towns has Hart/Anunoby or Robinson
Holmgren has Hartenstein or Williams
Wembanyama has Barnes or ?
A few other thoughts / questions I have looking at this data:
1. Cleveland is succeeding without a high level big wing defender! How is this possible? My entire thought behind keeping Sochan (and to a degree drafting CMB) is that you need someone who you can throw onto high level big wings. Are they throwing Dean Wade on these guys? Dean Wade can shoot the 3 (3+ 3PM/100) and defend big wings at a passable level and is getting paid 6 million a year. Can Sochan be more impactful than Dean Wade in the future? Koby Altman has really established himself as an S-tier GM these last few seasons who doesn't get talked about enough.
2. It seems pretty clear that a high level shooting wing is the best way to get your gravity up to respectable levels. This much we know. If they have a decent handle and won't get crushed on the defensive end, all the better.
3. Even if we go the interior presence route, it seems like it'd be helpful to have a shooting big that you can toggle in and out in the playoffs depending on the matchup. While Wemby's clearly a center, there are a lot of center-related things I don't really want him doing a ton of over an 82 game season. First on that list is setting hard screens. With that in mind, I do agree that John Collins is the most realistic target to try and acquire if we end up getting a true big in the draft.
You should add pace SpursBills and see if there’s any correlation there. This team is capped by how fast Wemby wants to go, and he’ll never want to go fast. I re-emphasize that shooters will never do well on this team and that they have to be more opportunistic than be volume shooters, and that is because Wemby doesn’t really play within the flow of the offense.
Great point on number 3. It’s what I said in an earlier post. Spurs’ priority will always be protecting Wemby. I’m pretty sure we saw Wemby go down once this past season because someone bumped knees with him during a screen. The Spurs probably had a heart attack when they saw that happen. Another reason why I believe they’ll go for a brute force vs a twig who can only shoot.
To confirm the opportunistic theory, we need to see the average usage between the big three or individual, and then the usage of the role players collectively. I think this will paint the full story.
keep in mind that most of the spurs "gravity" comes from wembanyama himself. he attempted 8.8 threes per game and was making 3.1 per. 13th in the league in attempts per game. no other center was in the top 60. next up was KP averaging 6.0 attempts per game. wemby was 18th in 3PM. KP was 40th in the league in makes
he is lappining the field at the position even if he's not the most accurate shooter. believe it was Thinking Basketball that put out a video this year about how he might be the greatest floor spacing 5 in league history (even if he's not as efficient as, say, KP or BroLo) because of his willingness to shoot, ability to shoot off the dribble, in transition, etc.
if wemby were to tone down the shooting (likely if Fox/Wemby pick and rolls become the weapon that Paul/Wemby, Tre/Wemby, or (lol) Sochan/Wemby never were)... we'd still need to pick it up elsewhere
Exactly! This is what people need to realize. Wemby IS our shooter and he’ll continue throwing up those shots. So the Spurs need the opposite of what people think. Guys who can get in the paint and dish it to him. We already have Fox and Castle who do that. Get two more. This team is the inverse of most other teams with stars who need 3 pt shooters. He’s basically Steph Curry in SpursBills ‘ earlier post.
my guy we didnt draft wemby, castle, and trade for fox to run the offense through Derik Queen in the post
we need ancillary players, not main characters. its why vassell has been a poor fit
I’m not saying Queen will be the 1st option. But when plays slow down, it’s a luxury to have a big who can post.
Top offensive/defensive and total Rebound % leaders among draft prospects
Rebound % is a good indicator of who the best rebounders are. There is a 73% translate rate from college to pros. Meaning there is a good chance if a player is a good rebounder in college he will replicate it in the pros. Here are the top guys in this draft class
Offensive rebound %
- Khaman Maluach- 16.5
- Johni Broome- 14.1
- Asa Newell- 13.9
- Alex Condon - 12.5
- Yaxel Lendeborg- 11.6
11% is usually the threshold that translates to the pros and these are the only 5 prospects that met that mark
Defensive Rebound %
- Maxime Raynaud-28.7
- Nique Clifford- 26.0
- Johni Broome- 26.0
- Danny Wolf- 25.0
- Yaxel Lendeborg- 24.9
- Derik Queen- 24.6
- Collin Murray-Boyles- 23.8
- Rasheer Fleming- 22.8
- Thomas Sorber- 21.9
- Cooper Flagg- 21.2
- Trevon Brazile-20.3
- Alex Condon- 19.3
- Khaman Maluach- 19.2
- Liam Mcneely- 18.7
- Ryan Kalkbrenner-18.4
- Carter Bryant- 17.8
- Ace Bailey-17.5
- Vladislav Goldin- 17.4
- Coleman Hawkins- 17.4
- Cedric Coward-17.2
Typically 17% is acceptable/above average. 20% is good. 23% is great. Anything above 26% is elite
Total rebound %
- Johni Broome- 20.2
- Maxime Raynaud-18.8
- Yaxel Lendeborg- 18.1
- Khaman Maluach- 18.0
- Danny Wolf- 17.7
- Derik Queen- 16.9
- Nique Clifford- 16.4
- Collin Murray-Boyles- 16.3
- Thomas Sorber- 15.6
- Rasheer Fleming- 15.3
+15% is usually the threshold that translates to a college player being a good all around rebounder in the NBA and these are the only 10 prospects that meet that threshold
Notes
Asa Newell grades as one of the only good offensive rebounders in this class but at 13.5 def reb % he grades as a well below average (15%) rebounder on defense.
Nique Clifford and Cedric Coward were the only wing/guard prospects to grade well.
Overall if the Spurs want to get better at rebounding there are several players that can help with that especially on the defensive side.
I have to agree in that Wemby is never going to be a down low center as he likes playing way outside and since he doesn’t have foot speed to beat people off the dribble he will mostly throw up a 3 ball. To me the biggest issue is will we have a smart enough coach to design a better offense and defense around Wemby but since this is about the draft I will keep my focus on it.
One thing I have come to understand is that that there is just one ball to go around and since we have Fox, Castle, and Wemby needing touches who ever we get is going to have to be able to make smart decisions and be able to shoot within a few seconds. It is going to be really interesting to see these players at the combine to see really what there measurements are. In the case of Queen if he shows up 20 pounds lighter he will probably go top 7 pretty easy if teams don’t get any Zion vibes from him. As far as this drafts lots of ways to go just really hope we have our new coach signed before we draft
First pick - Nipples, Queenie, and Fear
Hawks pick - Bryant, Dem, Flemming, Saraf, Liam
This is a good way to look at it. I’ve been wondering if we’ve been overhyping Kon (who I like) while underrating Kasparas and Liam. I don’t think they are that far from each other.
If you told me we could walk away with one of your Tier 3 (expect for Jase) and Sorber, I’d be very pleased with this draft.
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