Atlanta Hawks 2025 Draft Pick Watch

[Knoxxx]

so here are the scenarios now:

Atlanta and Dallas win: Atlanta gives us 16 (worst case scenario)

Atlanta and Memphis win: Atlanta gives us 15

Miami and Memphis win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 13 or 14 depending on outcome of the flip, Hawks get the other pick (from Sacto)

Miami and Dallas win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 12 or 13 depending on outcome of the flip. If we get 12, Hawks get 13. If we get 13, then 12 stays with Sacto. These are the two best outcomes on the board regardless of the flip.

How on earth can ATL now pass ORL for 16, up from 15?

[mystargtr34]

How on earth can ATL now pass ORL for 16, up from 15?

They don’t pass Orlando. Orlando moves up from 16 to 17 and Atlanta moves up from 15 to 16. because Memphis now drops from their current position of 18 down to 14. This only happens if Dallas beats Memphis tomorrow and Memphis misses playoffs. And Atlanta beats Miami and also makes the playoffs.

[spurraider21]

How on earth can ATL now pass ORL for 16, up from 15?

they wouldnt pass orlando. if Dallas and ATL both win, then Dallas is 15, ATL is 16, and ORL is 17

[scott]

yeah 8 and 12 is the best case scenario about maximizing our pick value in THIS draft, though i'd argue that 8 and 13 is actually our best case scenario, since that path theoretically upgrades our pick in the each of the next 2 drafts in exchange for moving down one slot this year

To that end, whether the Atlanta pick ends at 12 or 13 actually results in the exact same lottery odds, because ties are broken only for placement of picks that do not jump into the top 4, but the ping pong balls in the event of a tie are split evenly between the tied teams.

So, ending up at 12 versus 13 does not impact our odds at jumping up to a top 4 pick, it only impacts what happens if both SAC and ATL natural picks do not jump into the top 4.

[spurraider21]

To that end, whether the Atlanta pick ends at 12 or 13 actually results in the exact same lottery odds, because ties are broken only for placement of picks that do not jump into the top 4, but the ping pong balls in the event of a tie are split evenly between the tied teams.

So, ending up at 12 versus 13 does not impact our odds at jumping up to a top 4 pick, it only impacts what happens if both SAC and ATL natural picks do not jump into the top 4.

ah nice, i didnt even know that tidbit. even better

[exstatic]

To that end, whether the Atlanta pick ends at 12 or 13 actually results in the exact same lottery odds, because ties are broken only for placement of picks that do not jump into the top 4, but the ping pong balls in the event of a tie are split evenly between the tied teams.

So, ending up at 12 versus 13 does not impact our odds at jumping up to a top 4 pick, it only impacts what happens if both SAC and ATL natural picks do not jump into the top 4.

Fun fact: a tie doesn’t result in exactly even odds. I think there is like one extra number combo that goes to #12. It’s close, but if you want to see what an ATL/SAC 12/13 tie looks like, there’s a current 12/13 tie with different teams on TaT r/n.

[Knoxxx]

If ATL loses tomorrow night, what are our range of outcomes?

[exstatic]

If ATL loses tomorrow night, what are our range of outcomes?

If Dallas loses, 14/13 coin flip w/ Sacto.
If Dallas wins, 13/12 coin flip w/ Sacto.

[SpursGenius]

could have had bulls pick should have traded keldon instead

[Ice009]

could have had bulls pick should have traded keldon instead

If that was a ever a possibility (trading Keldon instead of that pick), that sucks looking back at it now with where the Bulls ended up.

[cutewizard]

Nostradamus wake up, do we get Flagg???

Hahahaha

[exstatic]

could have had bulls pick should have traded keldon instead

People on this forum think Keldon is crap, but also that other teams will take him in lieu of getting their pick back. If they don’t own their pick,there’s no way CHI goes on the ending kick they did.

[rascal]

If that was a ever a possibility (trading Keldon instead of that pick), that sucks looking back at it now with where the Bulls ended up.

You have to trade some value to get value. Spurs did well in that trade and good for Chicago to get some value back in that trade.

If it wasn't for Chicago that trade wasn't going to happen.

[couchman]

If we don’t make the trade Chicago probably tanks to keep the pick.
Don’t get twisted.

[scott]

Go Heat and Go Mavs!

[spurs10]

To that end, whether the Atlanta pick ends at 12 or 13 actually results in the exact same lottery odds, because ties are broken only for placement of picks that do not jump into the top 4, but the ping pong balls in the event of a tie are split evenly between the tied teams.

So, ending up at 12 versus 13 does not impact our odds at jumping up to a top 4 pick, it only impacts what happens if both SAC and ATL natural picks do not jump into the top 4.

Good info! Thanks. Hate to say it, but Go Heat and Go Mavs!

[John B]

Go Heat and Go Mavs!

10 years ago those were fighting words and deserved getting kicked out from this forum

[scottspurs]

I might finally Forget about 2013 if the Heat can beat the Hawks tonight and that pick moves up to #1 overall. Might I said haha

[Mal]

Everybody shut tf up, dont jinx it

[poopbox]

Pick is 5 min away from being virtually useless tbh

[TowelWaver]

19 seconds away from a second lottery pick...go Heat...

[Guru of Nothing]

Holy , our luck.

Update on specifics for my semi-literate ass, por favor.

[Biggems]

What happens if the Mavs win?

[vy65]

To be clear, this will not happen. But can you imagine how utterly dejected ATL would be if the .0007 or whatever odds hits and the pick is a #1 pick? That’s exponentially worse than losing game 7 of the finals on a buzzer beater.

[spurraider21]

we're in the endgame now

so here are the scenarios now:

Atlanta and Dallas win: Atlanta gives us 16 (worst case scenario)

Atlanta and Memphis win: Atlanta gives us 15

Miami and Memphis win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 13 or 14 depending on outcome of the flip, Hawks get the other pick (from Sacto)

Miami and Dallas win: Atlanta/Kings flip a coin, we either get 12 or 13 depending on outcome of the flip. If we get 12, Hawks get 13. If we get 13, then 12 stays with Sacto. These are the two best outcomes on the board regardless of the flip.