Atlanta Hawks 2025 Draft Pick Watch

[Mr. Body]

Good point. For what it’s worth the AI tells me that by controlling 8 and 14, the Spurs’ chances of securing:

1) a top-four pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery increase from 26.2% (with only their own pick) to approximately 28.0%.

2) No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery increase from 6.0% (with only their own pick) to approximately 6.47%.

Here are the odds for each pick:

https://tankathon.com/pick_odds

[John B]

So is the current Tankathon standings already set or do any teams still need a coin toss? Can ATL pick go to 13th and is that the highest it can go?

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Coin toss between Hawks and Kings!

We get 13 or 14!

[John B]

Coin toss between Hawks and Kings!

We get 13 or 14!

Thanks bruh

[Amuseddaysleeper]

First try

[Uriel]

First try

We would destroy the NBA for the next decade if this ever happened.

PG - Harper
SG - Fox
SF - Castle
PF - Flagg
C - Wembanyama

Bench: Vassell, Johnson, Sochan

[vander]

There would be a federal investigation into the draft lottery process

[Robz4000]

First try

since it's you, it prolly means the Spurs end up with 13 and 14

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Pick is 5 min away from being virtually useless tbh

How would it have been useless by going from 13/14 to 15? What a drama queen.

[Robz4000]

How would it have been useless by going from 13/14 to 15? What a drama queen.

13/14 is a non-zero chance at Flagg tbh. That being said, there's some intriguing prospects in the mid-1st.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

13/14 is a non-zero chance at Flagg tbh. That being said, there's some intriguing prospects in the mid-1st.

Yeah that 0.7 percent chance to get Flagg is surely going to fill us with hope until Silver opens the first envelope.

I see the middle of this draft being quite underwhelming and everyone from like 9 to 20 being in the same
tier but I wouldn’t mind Fleming or Bryant with that pick if they don’t find a good trade out deal.

[Robz4000]

Yeah that 0.7 percent chance to get Flagg is surely going to fill us with hope until Silver opens the first envelope.

I see the middle of this draft being quite underwhelming and everyone from like 9 to 20 being in the same
tier but I wouldn’t mind Fleming or Bryant with that pick if they don’t find a good trade out deal.

I want to believe.

Pretty much agree with the rest though

[spursistan]

13/14 is a non-zero chance at Flagg tbh. That being said, there's some intriguing prospects in the mid-1st.

Still think that ATL pick gets dealt for future first(s) or dangled for someone (KD? Cam? Naz Reid?) this offseason or just to move up a spot or two to get a guy they liked assuming we stay at 8. Don't see the Spurs bringing in up two rookies on the roster next season.

I think the Hawks picks will generally be used as sweeteners for ready-to-contribute upgrades when they finally ship Vassell/Keldon as they don't project to be premium picks, like, say, those Boston Nets picks (Those ended up being 3rd, 3d, 8th in the '16,'17,'18 drafts). By next season trade deadline, we'll get a clearer idea about that '26 swap.

[exstatic]

Yeah that 0.7 percent chance to get Flagg is surely going to fill us with hope until Silver opens the first envelope.

I see the middle of this draft being quite underwhelming and everyone from like 9 to 20 being in the same
tier but I wouldn’t mind Fleming or Bryant with that pick if they don’t find a good trade out deal.

There are no envelopes involved. Ping pong balls 1-14 can be drawn in 1001 four number combinations. If combo 11,12,13,14 is drawn, it is discarded, and they draw again. The other 1000 combos are assigned to the lottery teams in proportion to their odds. The lottery is conducted behind closed doors by Ernst and Young, with witnesses from each lottery teams.

If you were to try to rig it,you could only alter the ping pong balls for one four number combination. Say you’re trying to rig it for team A. They have combos 1,12,13,14 and 2,12,13,14. If you try to rig both, you might draw 1,2,12,13 or 1,2,13,14 belonging to other teams. So, you alter the ping pong balls for one 4 number combo, and it wins the lottery! The problem is, that combo will KEEP coming up when drawing for positions 2-4, and the team representatives will know something’s up.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

since it's you, it prolly means the Spurs end up with 13 and 14

With both picks getting season long injuries in preseason

[rascal]

Spurs will have 68 or 67 combinations of the 1001 combinations depending if they end up 13 or 14.

One combination is a null so a do over so really there are 1000 combinations.

Odds of a top 4 will change/increase after each ball is drawn with the drawn team's position's combinations no longer valid to be selected again.

[Mr. Body]

Still think that ATL pick gets dealt for future first(s) or dangled for someone (KD? Cam? Naz Reid?) this offseason or just to move up a spot or two to get a guy they liked assuming we stay at 8. Don't see the Spurs bringing in up two rookies on the roster next season.

I think the Hawks picks will generally be used as sweeteners for ready-to-contribute upgrades when they finally ship Vassell/Keldon as they don't project to be premium picks, like, say, those Boston Nets picks (Those ended up being 3rd, 3d, 8th in the '16,'17,'18 drafts). By next season trade deadline, we'll get a clearer idea about that '26 swap.

There are nine teams with no first round picks, one of those (Denver) with no picks at all. The Clippers are a tenth, they have the 30th pick and a second.

I can see dangling the Atlanta pick for something in the future. One of these teams may need a burst to stay relevant.

I'm sure the Spurs may try to move up two or three spots if they stay at eight and might miss the candidate they like.

[Dex]

I want to believe.

Pretty much agree with the rest though

Given how lucky we've been in the last two drafts (obviously Wemby, but also moved up last season which allowed us to get Castle and Atlanta's pick fell to us which basically turned into Fox)...I'm not sure how much luck we've got left

[Atl Spur]

The Spurs will work their magic; a lot of different ways to leverage the pick depending on where it lands. I personally look at it like found money…. Play the long game being our core pieces are in place.

[MannyIsGod]

Given how lucky we've been in the last two drafts (obviously Wemby, but also moved up last season which allowed us to get Castle and Atlanta's pick fell to us which basically turned into Fox)...I'm not sure how much luck we've got left

Moving up last year wasn't really lucky given the odds of being in top 4 with two picks. That was a pretty damn standard result.

EDIT - wait no I'm dumb. Forgot it was top 6 protected. You're right, we got lucky AF last year lol.

[exstatic]

Moving up last year wasn't really lucky given the odds of being in top 4 with two picks. That was a pretty damn standard result.

EDIT - wait no I'm dumb. Forgot it was top 6 protected. You're right, we got lucky AF last year lol.

And Toronto was sitting AT #6, pre-lottery.

[TVI]

First try

From your lips to God’s ears…

The NBA would have a collective .

[thOOdee]

Moving up last year wasn't really lucky given the odds of being in top 4 with two picks. That was a pretty damn standard result.

EDIT - wait no I'm dumb. Forgot it was top 6 protected. You're right, we got lucky AF last year lol.

and lucky enough not to get the top 3 picks because we probably would have taken sheppard.

[baseline bum]

We would destroy the NBA for the next decade if this ever happened.

PG - Harper
SG - Fox
SF - Castle
PF - Flagg
C - Wembanyama

Bench: Vassell, Johnson, Sochan

God no, no more Fox at SG.

[baseline bum]

First try

That's just greedy man. I'll humbly take Flagg and Edgecombe and be happy.