Spurs Select F Jeremy Sochan with the 9th Pick in the 2022 NBA Draft

[John B]

2022 is turning to be a very deep class and Spurs picked Sochan at 9th is becoming a big disappointment. I keep saying, sure but we wouldn’t have gotten Wemby. But damn, J-Dubs, Tari, Duren, Kessler would all be great fit.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Since we're obviously aiming to be a contender, let's see the SF/PF role player situation on contending rosters. When I say contending, I refer to teams that were build to compete, even if they failed.
Players on rookie contracts not included and players making more than $25M not included. Shooting percentages from this season.

Dort: ~$17M a year for 2 more seasons, elite defender and 41% 3pt shooter.
Kenrich Williams: ~$7M for 2 more seasons, just 16mpg, 38% 3pt.

Hachimura: ~$18M for 2 more seasons, 40% 3pt shooter this season.
DFS: ~$15M the next season, good defender and 36% 3pt.

Derrick Jones Jr: ~$10M for 2 more seasons, 36% 3pt.
Batum: ~$5M next season, veteran, 43% 3pt.

McDaniels: near-identical extension to Devin's, overpaid even though he's an elite defender.
Naz Reid: will surely get 25 to 30 a year in the summer.

Brandon Clarke: ~$12M for the next 3 seasons, can't shoot, not worth the money.

Caleb Martin: ~$9M for the next 4 seasons, didn't play for Dallas, career average 35% 3pt.
Naji Marshall: ~$9M for the next 3 seasons, poor shooter.
PJ Washington: ~$14M next season, 38% 3pt shooter and the team's enforcer, would be great for us.

O'Neale: ~$10M for the next 3 seasons, 40% 3pt.

Oubre: ~$8M next season, 29% 3pt.

SlowMo: ~$9M for the next two seasons, non-shooter.
Highsmisth: ~$5M the next season. 38% 3pt.

Portis: ~$13M the next season, 36% 3pt.

Toppin: ~$15M for the next 3 seasons, 36% 3pt shooter.

Josh Hart: ~$20M for the next 3 seasons, 33% 3pt shooter.

Hauser: ~$12M for the next 3 seasons, 41% 3pt shooter.

Hunter: ~$23M for the next 2 seasons, 43% 3pt shooter.
Strus: ~$15M for the next 2 seasons, 38% 3pt shooter.
Okoro: ~$11M for the next 2 seasons, 37% 3pt shooter.



I know that just listing 3pt percentages without volume is superficial and obviously a lot of these players aren't great defenders, but what was the point I was trying to make?
That even though there are quite a few bad defenders in there, there are just a few non-shooters around the league at SF/PF positions playing limited roles for contenders.
Unless you're a high end starter even without a jumpshot, you're not getting on a contending roster.
The only exceptions are players like SlowMo who are great playmakers for their size (which Jeremy isn't), or athletic freaks who can play as backup bigs even though they're undersized (which Jeremy can't).
There are some more wings on minimum deals, but that's just cir stantial.

Also, have in mind that all of these contracts were signed before the new CBA, a lot of them wouldn't have been so generous with current rules.

TL;DR
Jeremy is absolutely not worth more than ~$10M a year with his current skillset and the lack of improvement in his offensive game means that offering him more based on his potential would be idiotic because it seems that he reached his ceiling early.

Nice information! Obviously most of us overestimated Sochan's next contract.

[Seventyniner]

TL;DR
Jeremy is absolutely not worth more than ~$10M a year with his current skillset and the lack of improvement in his offensive game means that offering him more based on his potential would be idiotic because it seems that he reached his ceiling early.

I don't think you're accounting for the facts that those contracts were signed when the cap was smaller, and that it will be even higher when Sochan's extension kicks in than it is now. Even a 5/80 extension for Sochan will be a smaller % of the cap than many of the players on your list, it would start at $11.4M adjusted back to this year's cap. Right in your $10-12M range.

Your $10M number for Sochan in 2026-2027 is equivalent to $8.27M this season and $8M for a contract signed in the summer of 2023.

[LeBowen]

I don't think you're accounting for the facts that those contracts were signed when the cap was smaller, and that it will be even higher when Sochan's extension kicks in than it is now. Even a 5/80 extension for Sochan will be a smaller % of the cap than many of the players on your list, it would start at $11.4M adjusted back to this year's cap. Right in your $10-12M range.

Your $10M number for Sochan in 2026-2027 is equivalent to $8.27M this season and $8M for a contract signed in the summer of 2023.

The cap was smaller, but as I said the new CBA rules are way more punishing when you hit the luxury and even though the cap will rise, role player contracts won't in most cases.
Cap is projected to rise by ~$15M per year, but when you have two max contracts on the roster, most of those $15M go towards their contract scaling.

To end this discussion, I respect everyone's opinion, but I just don't see why would the Spurs overpay such an offensively limited player when he hasn't shown any major improvements in his offensive game.
You don't make adjustments to help role players. Just think of all the situations when he was just sitting in the corner and opponents effectively played 5v4 defense. Even had a couple wide open clutch shots because we had nowhere else to go.
There's just no valid argument for Spurs to offer him more than $10M a year this summer. Either let him play for his contract or let him go if there's interest elsewhere and they're willing to send an asset our way.

[Seventyniner]

The cap was smaller, but as I said the new CBA rules are way more punishing when you hit the luxury and even though the cap will rise, role player contracts won't in most cases.
Cap is projected to rise by ~$15M per year, but when you have two max contracts on the roster, most of those $15M go towards their contract scaling.

To end this discussion, I respect everyone's opinion, but I just don't see why would the Spurs overpay such an offensively limited player when he hasn't shown any major improvements in his offensive game.
You don't make adjustments to help role players. Just think of all the situations when he was just sitting in the corner and opponents effectively played 5v4 defense. Even had a couple wide open clutch shots because we had nowhere else to go.
There's just no valid argument for Spurs to offer him more than $10M a year this summer. Either let him play for his contract or let him go if there's interest elsewhere and they're willing to send an asset our way.

With the cap rising 10% per year but the maximum annual raises allowed in a contract at 8%, every contract is a decreasing contract in cap % terms. That could change if the cap stops going up 10% per year though.

I totally agree that overpaying Sochan would be a bad idea. We just disagree on the numbers. For clarity, when you say $10M do you mean that as the average or starting salary? And would you prefer a 5th year?

[LeBowen]

For clarity, when you say $10M do you mean that as the average or starting salary? And would you prefer a 5th year?

$10M as a starting salary, I don't think he'd accept a 5th year if he thinks he can improve.
From his perspective, I think he should try and earn himself a better extension if he believes in his abilities.

[Pauleta14]

It's funny how you're all acting as if you didn't know our FO and he wasn't going to be overpaid if he extends this summer...

15m would be the floor unfortunately.

Edit/ Best case scenario PATFO let him prove himself next season, but they'll never let him go as if it'd mean accepting they failed in his development.

[Guru of Nothing]

2022 is turning to be a very deep class and Spurs picked Sochan at 9th is becoming a big disappointment. I keep saying, sure but we wouldn’t have gotten Wemby. But damn, J-Dubs, Tari, Duren, Kessler would all be great fit.

It hurts watching Buzelis play and hit shots, too.

[rascal]

2022 is turning to be a very deep class and Spurs picked Sochan at 9th is becoming a big disappointment. I keep saying, sure but we wouldn’t have gotten Wemby. But damn, J-Dubs, Tari, Duren, Kessler would all be great fit.

Most at Spurstalk wanted Sochan including yourself. Go back to the brginning of this thread and see the excitement with the Sochan pick. I remember Sochan winning the poll who this site wanted with the pick.

You guys got who you wanted.

[exstatic]

It hurts watching Buzelis play and hit shots, too.

Why? Would you rather have him than Fox? Because drafting him means no Minny unprotected 20131 FRP, the best asset in the Fox trade.

[The Truth #6]

They could still have gotten Fox, it just would have been a different FRP that we'd have to include. It's not all or none. I liked Buz, but I'm not necessarily advocating we should have done things differently but we obviously could have done things differently.

[John B]

Most at Spurstalk wanted Sochan including yourself. Go back to the brginning of this thread and see the excitement with the Sochan pick. I remember Sochan winning the poll who this site wanted with the pick.

You guys got who you wanted.

Guilty as charged. But his reluctance to shoot, rim-running just to stop at the key to pass, inability to pass in traffic. We hoped that he's athletic enough to learn from the job. Which is actually the problem, because there has not been a clear definition of his job description. He was tossed from playing to PG to now backing Center.

[exstatic]

They could still have gotten Fox, it just would have been a different FRP that we'd have to include. It's not all or none. I liked Buz, but I'm not necessarily advocating we should have done things differently but we obviously could have done things differently.

I find ‘what if’ to be a fools errand. We trade Jakob Poeltl for a top 6 protected FRP in what is acknowledged as a crap draft. We flipped that pick as the main asset to get Fox, and I’m fine with that, not looking back.

I also have an inherent disdain for the products of the Ignite team. Most of them were abject failures, and their successes are guys like Jalen Green, more or less a supercharged version of Lonnie. The best thing the NBA has done in the last 5 years is shutting down that show. There was no development going on,just a paycheck, and marking time until the draft,

[Guru of Nothing]

Why? Would you rather have him than Fox? Because drafting him means no Minny unprotected 20131 FRP, the best asset in the Fox trade.

I would rather have Fox than Buzelis and I would rather have Fox and Buzelis.

[scott]

I think I was the head cheerleader for Buzelis (even at #4 honestly), but I'm not loosing any sleep over it. Happy with Castle of course, and I don't think Buzelis would have gotten the opportunities needed as a second rookie on this team (for right or wrong).

Glad Matas is making my talent evaluation skills look nice, but don't look back in anger.

[spurraider21]

I think I was the head cheerleader for Buzelis (even at #4 honestly), but I'm not loosing any sleep over it. Happy with Castle of course, and I don't think Buzelis would have gotten the opportunities needed as a second rookie on this team (for right or wrong).

Glad Matas is making my talent evaluation skills look nice, but don't look back in anger.

its honestly wild just how bad the Ignite stink must have been. how was it so much worse than just going the typical college route?

[ambchang]

its honestly wild just how bad the Ignite stink must have been. how was it so much worse than just going the typical college route?

A lot of it is development in the formative years of a young player. The decline in fundamental skills development of the AAU over the last two decades has shifted a lot of the basic development of players to college and even nba teams.

Which is why I’m not overly sold on the spurs being a strong contender soon just because we have wemby, the team has lost its way in developing young talent.

[poopbox]

Most at Spurstalk wanted Sochan including yourself. Go back to the brginning of this thread and see the excitement with the Sochan pick. I remember Sochan winning the poll who this site wanted with the pick.

You guys got who you wanted.

I was somebody who was absolutely fine with picking Sochan, because I thought he would be jack of all trades master of none player and I thought he would be better defensively. Turns out he is not a jack of any trade and most of his positive looking defensive metrics are smoke and mirrors cause when you watch a game no player has a problem scoring over him or around him.

I also don't fully blame him cause I think playing him at point really derived him of honing his skills as a small ball 4. He hasn't really had time to develop what he is most suited to being good at and this is now year 4 and the team is ready to start being a playoff team now. Time has ran out.

[rascal]

I was somebody who was absolutely fine with picking Sochan, because I thought he would be jack of all trades master of none player and I thought he would be better defensively. Turns out he is not a jack of any trade and most of his positive looking defensive metrics are smoke and mirrors cause when you watch a game no player has a problem scoring over him or around him.

I also don't fully blame him cause I think playing him at point really derived him of honing his skills as a small ball 4. He hasn't really had time to develop what he is most suited to being good at and this is now year 4 and the team is ready to start being a playoff team now. Time has ran out.

Then you miscalculated how good he was going to be.

I was out on Sochan. I wanted Duren as I saw him as a better rebounder and better scoring/finishing near the basket. Sochan didn't look athletic enough to me and had poor shooting.

Sochan was gifted a starting role while not earning it and was given quality minutes because the Spurs didn't care about winning. The point guard experiment lasted only 18 games and he played some of his worst basketball after going back playing PF that year. It can't be used for an excuse for his slow development.

If he's too small for playing down low(center) and can't shoot well enough to play away from the basket then what's his value? Can Sochan even make/shoot any mid range shots?

[exstatic]

I would rather have Fox than Buzelis and I would rather have Fox and Buzelis.

I would rather have Fox,plus all of our remaining picks than Fox, Buzelis, and only one ATL pick.

[poopbox]

Then you miscalculated how good he was going to be.

I was out on Sochan. I wanted Duren as I saw him as a better rebounder and better scoring/finishing near the basket. Sochan didn't look athletic enough to me and had poor shooting.

Sochan was gifted a starting role while not earning it and was given quality minutes because the Spurs didn't care about winning. The point guard experiment lasted only 18 games and he played some of his worst basketball after going back playing PF that year. It can't be used for an excuse for his slow development.

If he's too small for playing down low(center) and can't shoot well enough to play away from the basket then what's his value? Can Sochan even make/shoot any mid range shots?

Meh, he played "point guard" in his rookie year to, as in he was the one bringing the ball up the floor and initiating the offense.

The problem with sochan is he is basically the same player in year 3 as he was in year 1

[Jordan Jackson]

It's funny how you're all acting as if you didn't know our FO and he wasn't going to be overpaid if he extends this summer...

15m would be the floor unfortunately.

Edit/ Best case scenario PATFO let him prove himself next season, but they'll never let him go as if it'd mean accepting they failed in his development.

The Spurs call it “Development” but it’s “Sunk Cost Fallacy.” It’s anyone’s guess if they know the difference at this point.

Can he improve? Sure. But, he’s not dynamic enough to play wing position. The league is just too talented now. I think you can draft someone better and save money.

I’m telling, if they hang on to him, Wemby and Fox will have to carry him. Wemby is going to get a lot of bad basketball players paid well.

I know Sochan has fans - this is not meant as a put down. Just the way it looks to me right now.

[scott]

And now the E-N has dropped an article on Sochan: https://www.expressnews.com/sports/s...d-20279782.php

Interesting that the entire Power of Friendship has gotten these puff pieces released today...

[Pauleta14]

The Spurs call it “Development” but it’s “Sunk Cost Fallacy.” It’s anyone’s guess if they know the difference at this point.

Can he improve? Sure. But, he’s not dynamic enough to play wing position. The league is just too talented now. I think you can draft someone better and save money.

I’m telling, if they hang on to him, Wemby and Fox will have to carry him. Wemby is going to get a lot of bad basketball players paid well.

I know Sochan has fans - this is not meant as a put down. Just the way it looks to me right now.

I can improve too, everybody can, it's never been an argument to me.

I was stunned (still am) by how low his floor was when I discovered him last season and always wondered (still do) how so many Spurs fans (supposedly having higher expectations in terms of bbiq considering the recent history) could like or even love him... It's head scratching tbh

At best he has a bright future with another system/role/need, but today's Spurs is probably the worst fit for him in the league with a starting Big that is so singular and requires high passing abilities and court awareness

[Dex]

Sochan is not worth priotizing.

He has not improved on any single NBA skill, other than being disruptive (on both offense and defense)

I can go out there and run around like a pin-ball to make things look crazy, but it doesn't mean I belong in the NBA.

He can't shoot. He can't rebound. He can't defend (again, he tries hard but is not reliable). And they went out of their way to teach him how to pass which went terribly.

If the Spurs need to give him a contract to make him a trade chip, fine.

But he isn't a vital part to our future, and I wouldn't mind if he was traded tomorrow.