2025 NBA Draft

[onechance87]

Yeessss!

Top questions for me from the perspective of the 8th pick:

- is Kon really 6’7?
- is Ace really 6’10? (Def will drop if not)
- Are Khaman’s hands truly bad?
- Will Bryant’s measurements exceed expectations?

If kon really is 6’7....He will be picked in top 6 for sure

[SpursBills]

What HC mean for HC RIM efficiency?

Also, not sure I'd want to go with Carter Bryant at 8 (hopefully the Spurs get in the top 4, though, and don't have to worry about this). I'd agree with HankC and only take him at 14 if he's still there (most likely won't be, though). Not really sure who I'd want at 8. I would like someone that can at least shoot a little bit, but would prefer someone that can put pressure getting to the rim and score inside (as long as they're not a poor shooter, just need them to at least be an average 3 point shooter).

HC stands for half court in this case - excludes fast break possessions

Like everything else, I think this is just one piece of data and can't be taken as the end-all be-all for anybody. The only guy it really indicts is Boogie, who can neither get to the rim nor finish efficiently even against college defenses.

As far as some personal notes on prospects with this data:
- this is probably the biggest concern, aside from his handle, that I have about VJ. He dunks a ton, but when he's not dunking it he's really not finishing around the basket that well, suggesting that there might be an issue with his touch. He's not necessarily taking horrible shots as his team's primary offensive option like Fears or Tre either. I comp him a lot to Oladipo, but his wingspan and build make him an underdog to being as good a defender as Oladipo. Meanwhile, if he's got touch issues finishing around the rim, and doesn't have the handle to go east-west and is mainly a north-south athlete, his offensive options are sort of limited.

- are shot tendencies ingrained in someone, or can they change with coaching? Tre and Ace - yikes. Are their rim frequencies that low because they lack the requisite athleticism/handle/physicality to get to the rim at the next level, or are they that godlike as midrange guys? Combine their rim frequency with their low free throw rate and you have a good picture of the types of shot tendencies they prefer. You worry that if they're guarded tightly at the 3 point line at the next level, they're just going to settle for moderately contested midrange jumpers all day long.

- think I touched on this earlier, but a 5 star prospect like McNeeley who's the size that he is should really be finishing at a better clip around the rim than what he's shown this season.

- holy Dylan Harper. A lot of people comp him to Harden, but I think he's actually closer to Fox than someone like Fears, who has better odds to shoot but worse physical outlier traits. Harper's got his build, Fox has his speed, but both are guys who live at the rim but with major concerns about their shot. Fears doesn't have the outlier physical characteristics, but has a much better chance to shoot at all 3 levels, something like a Collin Sexton+

[exstatic]

It's almost mathematically impossible, but just for the fun of it, would you be happy or pissed if the Lottery turned out like this:
1. Hawks via Sac
2. Spurs
3. Spurs via Hawks

Unhappy. I want no improvement for Atlanta so that their next two seasons suck ass.

[exstatic]

Dude, sign me up for that!

You want Atlanta to win the lottery and get Flagg, screwing over our next two picks…

[exstatic]

The Sac pick is top 12 protected, so ATL loses out in this case

That’s right, I forgot about that.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Credit: @mcfdraft on twitter

Thanks for this.

Two things stand out for me. VJ cannot utilise his athleticism in the halfcourt, confirming what the eye test says. It’ll be interesting to see what his measurements are. If he’s like 6’2 barefoot and his athletic drills aren’t amazing he might drop.

Will Riley’s numbers are a pleasant surprise. I’m very high on him, relative to others.

[LeBowen]

You want Atlanta to win the lottery and get Flagg, screwing over our next two picks…

I know you're the resident contrarian, but even you don't believe in what you just wrote.
Getting #2 and #3 picks is the absolute best case scenario you could hope for with '26 swap and '27 ATL pick.
As I said before the season even started, any team that has no incentive to tank gets +10W in their column right away.
With so many teams being bad and some more being on the verge of blowing it up, getting 8th-10th best odds is the best we can hope for from those Hawks picks.
Especially since it finally looks like they figured it out and got a solid roster around Trae.

One guaranteed top4 pick is worth more than our three ATL picks combined.
We wouldn't be able to get Bailey with those three picks.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Unhappy. I want no improvement for Atlanta so that their next two seasons suck ass.

You're kidding? Or you're too greedy?

[exstatic]

I know you're the resident contrarian, but even you don't believe in what you just wrote.
Getting #2 and #3 picks is the absolute best case scenario you could hope for with '26 swap and '27 ATL pick.
As I said before the season even started, any team that has no incentive to tank gets +10W in their column right away.
With so many teams being bad and some more being on the verge of blowing it up, getting 8th-10th best odds is the best we can hope for from those Hawks picks.
Especially since it finally looks like they figured it out and got a solid roster around Trae.

One guaranteed top4 pick is worth more than our three ATL picks combined.
We wouldn't be able to get Bailey with those three picks.

Hey,if we’re dreaming of 2 top four picks, finish the job, and have our picks 1 and 2.

[Mr. Body]

HC stands for half court in this case - excludes fast break possessions

Like everything else, I think this is just one piece of data and can't be taken as the end-all be-all for anybody. The only guy it really indicts is Boogie, who can neither get to the rim nor finish efficiently even against college defenses.

As far as some personal notes on prospects with this data:
- this is probably the biggest concern, aside from his handle, that I have about VJ. He dunks a ton, but when he's not dunking it he's really not finishing around the basket that well, suggesting that there might be an issue with his touch. He's not necessarily taking horrible shots as his team's primary offensive option like Fears or Tre either. I comp him a lot to Oladipo, but his wingspan and build make him an underdog to being as good a defender as Oladipo. Meanwhile, if he's got touch issues finishing around the rim, and doesn't have the handle to go east-west and is mainly a north-south athlete, his offensive options are sort of limited.

- are shot tendencies ingrained in someone, or can they change with coaching? Tre and Ace - yikes. Are their rim frequencies that low because they lack the requisite athleticism/handle/physicality to get to the rim at the next level, or are they that godlike as midrange guys? Combine their rim frequency with their low free throw rate and you have a good picture of the types of shot tendencies they prefer. You worry that if they're guarded tightly at the 3 point line at the next level, they're just going to settle for moderately contested midrange jumpers all day long.

- think I touched on this earlier, but a 5 star prospect like McNeeley who's the size that he is should really be finishing at a better clip around the rim than what he's shown this season.

- holy Dylan Harper. A lot of people comp him to Harden, but I think he's actually closer to Fox than someone like Fears, who has better odds to shoot but worse physical outlier traits. Harper's got his build, Fox has his speed, but both are guys who live at the rim but with major concerns about their shot. Fears doesn't have the outlier physical characteristics, but has a much better chance to shoot at all 3 levels, something like a Collin Sexton+

I agree about Edgecombe's slight frame and difficulty finishing. He's still fairly unformed to me, so the hope is his character and work habits allow him to fill out on both ends of the court. I've heard he's a good kid, but for now it's not clear what he'll become.

Harper, as you suggest, is heavy on paint touches. That's great, but three of our ostensible starting five need that area. He kind of duplicates what Castle and Fox do, also his usage and type of usage isn't a great fit.

While I do think Bailey's shot selection and feel were pretty questionable, I think you're harsh comparing Tre Johnson to him. Johnson was having to carry a very poorly coached and executing Texas team. A recent scouting vid pointed out how many of his passes, which could be very good, ended up in missed shots. For his shot selection, I don't think he's a natural iso scorer (yet) but was put on an island having to get shots all the time for this bad team. He can probably improve this, or, , actually have screens set for him. And he's really good off-ball.

[exstatic]

You're kidding? Or you're too greedy?

I am greedy.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Hey,if we’re dreaming of 2 top four picks, finish the job, and have our picks 1 and 2.

Got you! Yes. Since we're dreaming and kidding, why not dreaming bigger?

[exstatic]

I would actually concede pick #2, as long as we get #1.

[LeBowen]

Obviously getting another superstar prospect would be amazing, but I'd be exstatic if we land another Castle-level player over the next few drafts, that's all we need.

[Ditty]

I hope Washington wins the lottery if the Spurs don't.

I like what they are building out there and need that conference to be more compe ive.

Annoying scenarios would be Rockets, Kings, or Mavs jumping in the top four or Sixers dropping two spots and having to give that pick to OKC for more ammo to get Giannis.

[scott]

Half this board will be asking to fire Mitch Johnson when Carter Bryant starts in the g league, get limited minutes when he does get called up and finishes averaging 4 ppg on 10 mpg lol. I’m not saying he won’t be good but he is more of a project than most see him on here. Can the Spurs still develop players at a high level like that?

This guy would not be in the Spurs rotation this year except for spot minutes. He could pay off 2-3 years down the line but isn’t it about time the Spurs start making the playoffs. I mean they could in theory still make it even with a project on their Bench. I guess. If you think they can overcome being dominated on the boards every game next season

Unless we jump into the Top 4, I think we should all start expecting our pick(s) this year to get the traditional Spurs rookie treatment (meaning, pre-Sochan) of limited PT and lots of time in Austin

[Dejounte]

Unless we jump into the Top 4, I think we should all start expecting our pick(s) this year to get the traditional Spurs rookie treatment (meaning, pre-Sochan) of limited PT and lots of time in Austin

Most of the picks pre-sochan were 11th pick or later
I think they’re less risk-averse the lower the picks are.

risk meaning players who clearly were still learning to play team basketball, or weren’t part of winning programs.

i think the (few) players they’ve taken in the top 10 have always been players who were ready to play now, which is why I’ve always predicted the Spurs to pick one of the guys who were counted on more during their year in college and why i think a raw guy like Carter Bryant is very unlikely with the 8th pick

i think they view being selected that high as an “honor” and being picked that high “bears responsibility”. That’s why I think they’ll be more cautious and do their due diligence with this pick (obviously) and make sure they have the makings of a Spur vs someone who will dump it down the toilet.

just all my opinion, of course

[Degoat]

Don’t see all the love for Kon Knueppel, seems like a Doug McDermott type. Don’t want to use a lottery pick on that

[CGD]

You want Atlanta to win the lottery and get Flagg, screwing over our next two picks…

Yeah, 2 and 3 would have so much value not only as picks but in trades.

[CGD]

Don’t see all the love for Kon Knueppel, seems like a Doug McDermott type. Don’t want to use a lottery pick on that

Nah, it’s not a fair comp. This guy brings more playmaking and “give a ” on D. Not just shooting. Interestingly, the most common comp I see is Cam Johnson, who many posters here are creaming their panties for.

But it’ll all be about the measurements. If he’s like 6’4.5 w/o shoes and T-Rex wingspan, I think he slips.

[Russ]

Don’t see all the love for Kon Knueppel, seems like a Doug McDermott type. Don’t want to use a lottery pick on that

McDermott won the all the major college player of the year awards -- Wooden, Naismith, etc. (admittedly as a senior).

Knueppel wasn't even the best player on his team.

[Vienna]

McDermott won the all the major college player of the year awards -- Wooden, Naismith, etc. (admittedly as a senior).

Knueppel wasn't even the best player on his team.

I didn‘t see a JJ Re comparison yet, but wasn‘t he to one you would compare Knueppel? And it’s not just the white guy and Duke thing. Looking at the first two college seasons from Re , you see a similar player. Re turned into a college legend as an upperclassman, not before.
Kon is taller, but maybe not that much. (Re measured 6‘4‘‘ without shoes).
and a Re type career might be a likely outcome for Kon. nothing wrong about that.

[keithington1]

2 of Essengue Queen Maluach Clifford and I’m good at pick 8 and 14. I can envision these players making a huge impact on this roster.

[Russ]

I didn‘t see a JJ Re comparison yet, but wasn‘t he to one you would compare Knueppel? And it’s not just the white guy and Duke thing. Looking at the first two college seasons from Re , you see a similar player. Re turned into a college legend as an upperclassman, not before.
Kon is taller, but maybe not that much. (Re measured 6‘4‘‘ without shoes).
and a Re type career might be a likely outcome for Kon. nothing wrong about that.

Yeah, Knueppel could work out and maybe even be a steal.

But I'm just skeptical of the way he wants to play given his athleticism and size. The NBA may be a bigger wall for him than for some others.

I'd be surprised if he measures in at 6'7".

[scott]

Most of the picks pre-sochan were 11th pick or later
I think they’re less risk-averse the lower the picks are.

risk meaning players who clearly were still learning to play team basketball, or weren’t part of winning programs.

i think the (few) players they’ve taken in the top 10 have always been players who were ready to play now, which is why I’ve always predicted the Spurs to pick one of the guys who were counted on more during their year in college and why i think a raw guy like Carter Bryant is very unlikely with the 8th pick

i think they view being selected that high as an “honor” and being picked that high “bears responsibility”. That’s why I think they’ll be more cautious and do their due diligence with this pick (obviously) and make sure they have the makings of a Spur vs someone who will dump it down the toilet.

just all my opinion, of course

Yes, they were all taken Top 10 and maybe there were higher expectations of a player coming in (that certainly can be said of Wemby and Castle), but they were all drafted with no players standing in their way of meaningful playing time, considering we were tanking or coming off a tanking season. Unless we jump into the Top 4, I don't see any of the players available in our range being considering instant starters (heck, Castle wasn't even an instant starter as the #4 pick) and some of them (like Kon) might even struggle to get early playing time at all because the staff will have their existing, established favorites at those positions.

Whether or not this is the right or wrong thing for them to do, is another question, but that's what I foresee happening.

Of course, this is all based on my guess at what will happen this offseason where we largely bring back the same team (in regards to meaningful rotation players) minus CP3 plus our picks, maybe one relatively minor vet addition. I think the FO and coaching staff is going to view whomever we draft as incremental additions to work in as they prove worthy, rather than guys the rest of the roster needs to be adjusted around (so, drafting Kon won't make them look to trade Devin or Keldon to open a pathway to minutes for Kon, as an example).

Also, of course, just my opinion... but that's the direction I think the staff will take.