Pick #2 - Strategies

[Chinook]

You're kinda tiptoeing around it, but you do seem to be low on Harper's potential that you are entertaining the idea of trading him for a bunch of unproven role players who have done jack in their career as far contributing to winning basketball..

I'm not bothered by someone being low on Harper. The goal is to be right, not to follow the crowd. The issue is to be so lost in the sauce that you'd trade Harden, Irving, Westbrook or Lillard for some role-players. Simply put, Fox is at least a tier below each of those players. If we're hypothetically saying Harper is going to pan out to be like on the level of any of those four, why shouldn't the Spurs trade Fox for the role-players instead?

[scott]

The Spurs will have their board, and perhaps on that board, Harper isn't that far about a guy like Tre Johnson. Maybe he's not higher at all. The goal of the draft is to be right, not to align with consensus. It's hard to see another guy being a better prospect than Harper from what I've read, and we know that when this front office zags, they don't always find the better option. But they still have to go with what they think is best, and that means they should be willing to make a trade if necessary. But to be honest, I have this pick as the clear second spot on the "untouchable" rankings behind Wemby. The Spurs need to ace this draft given how unlikely it was for them to be in this position. I don't think they should consider trading the pick for a vet, and if they move down, it should only be because they think the guy they're drafted at the lower pick is going to be a top-three player from this class.

I don't think the Spurs need to make a trade at this time. But if they did want to go star hunting, my max offer would be Castle, Sochan, Vassell, 2026, 2028 and 2030. That's enough salary to match up to $54.8 Million in salary, or pretty much any contract in the league. Give the swap options on those picks, I don't think there's a package out there that is more valuable outside of Houston or OKC cutting deep into their quick. I don't even think there's a good target for that full package. If you swap out Vassell for Branham, you might have a Jaren Jackson Jr. package. The issue is his makes so little that it'd be hard to imagine he'd sign an extension. The defense would be so ridiculous that it would make a Jackson/Wembanyama front court worth a lot. But the risk of Jackson walking for nothing would be too great to wager that much flexibility and draft capital on. Any other feasible trade that isn't Giannis shouldn't require the Spurs to move Castle or 2.

I agree with this thought process, the only wrinkle would be:

If, in the Spurs process of evaluation come to the conclusion that Harper "ain't it" and the rest of the class doesn't really grade out that well either (and honestly, outside of Flagg and Harper, I'm still not sure that the rest of the lottery is any better or worse than last year's... more on this later)... then the #2 pick becomes significantly more "tradeable", especially if the Spurs view is broadly contrarian to the rest of the league, because that means the rest of the league is likely to pay more for the pick than the pick is inherently worth in the Spurs eyes.

At that point... 1) it's all about maximizing the return on the pick. I didn't like the #8 trade last year not because I hated the idea of trading that pick for more future assets, but because I felt like they didn't get a good enough return... but for the purposes of this conversation we'll just say that was the best possible value the Spurs could get, in which case job well done - you maximized your return. 2) You better hope you are right. You're gonna look bad if Harper turns into an All-NBA player even if you got a haul in return, short of landing an All-NBA guy yourself.

I do think TMIII is getting a little underrated in this discussion, but I do understand the hype around Harper and I'm bought into myself. However, if we're talking about a decision between Ace Bailey and TMIII... give me TMIII every day and twice on Sunday. TMIII is the fully actualized version of Bailey's best outcome. Honestly it would be foolish for any team to take Bailey *if* the possibility exists to get TMIII and extra assets instead.

Now, about what I said about this draft (and this is not in response to you, Chinook... just finishing my thought). Knowing what we know now, I think Castle firmly goes #3 in this draft. I also don't know if any of these guys (outside of Flagg and Harper) go ahead of Sarr and Risacher. There is sudden excitement over Tre Johnson, but he honestly wasn't all that impressive for Texas this year in my opinion and his recent surge is partly driven by workouts. We're talking about Kon Knueppel as a Top 8 pick. Is Essengue really all that different than Saluan? I'd take Clingan over every single C prospect in this class, including Queen. I might be too harsh, but I really think this year and last year's classes are about equal in the lottery outside of the Top 2. With that said, I do think this draft offers more depth after the lotto. If we were at #8, I probably would have been more excited about last year's #8 than this years... but I'm much more excited about this year's #14 than last year's.

[scott]

You're kinda tiptoeing around it, but you do seem to be low on Harper's potential that you are entertaining the idea of trading him for a bunch of unproven role players who have done jack in their career as far contributing to winning basketball..

To play Devil's Advocate... Dylan Harper is also an unproven player who has done jack in his career as far as contributing to winning basketball. TMIII and Herb are significantly more proven. However... Dylan Harper's potential is higher than both of those guys and that is what his appeal is. But there is a very real chance Harper never accomplishes anything near what those two guys have.

And just so we are all on the same page...

TMIII averaged 21ppg this season. Everyone's favorite chucker, Devin Vassell, never did that and a lot of people were thinking he was worth 2 FRPs last summer.

Herb Jones is an All Defensive 1st Teamer and finished 5th in DPOY voting.

These guys aren't scrubs and are more than just role players.

With that said, I'm still not saying I would do that deal... but like I said in the previous post, folks are underrating those two in the excitement of the moment. #2 and Devin and filler for #7 and TMIII and Herb is pretty close to even, IMO. I bet if you asked levelheaded NOLA fans, many of them would say no.. a decent indication that this is a fairly even trade.

[scott]

I'm not bothered by someone being low on Harper. The goal is to be right, not to follow the crowd. The issue is to be so lost in the sauce that you'd trade Harden, Irving, Westbrook or Lillard for some role-players. Simply put, Fox is at least a tier below each of those players. If we're hypothetically saying Harper is going to pan out to be like on the level of any of those four, why shouldn't the Spurs trade Fox for the role-players instead?

I think the Fox comparison is a good way of looking at it. If the question is: would I trade Fox for #7, TMIII and Herb... I think I probably would (and I really like Fox, think he is a Top 30 player and was a huge advocate of bringing him in). So the question becomes... how likely is it that we think Harper will be a Top 30 player or better?

(Admittedly I'm also a huge fan of TMIII and, to a lesser extent, Herb).

[rascal]

To play Devil's Advocate... Dylan Harper is also an unproven player who has done jack in his career as far as contributing to winning basketball. TMIII and Herb are significantly more proven. However... Dylan Harper's potential is higher than both of those guys and that is what his appeal is. But there is a very real chance Harper never accomplishes anything near what those two guys have.

And just so we are all on the same page...

TMIII averaged 21ppg this season. Everyone's favorite chucker, Devin Vassell, never did that and a lot of people were thinking he was worth 2 FRPs last summer.

Herb Jones is an All Defensive 1st Teamer and finished 5th in DPOY voting.

These guys aren't scrubs and are more than just role players.

With that said, I'm still not saying I would do that deal... but like I said in the previous post, folks are underrating those two in the excitement of the moment. #2 and Devin and filler for #7 and TMIII and Herb is pretty close to even, IMO. I bet if you asked levelheaded NOLA fans, many of them would say no.. a decent indication that this is a fairly even trade.

He's going to win with Wemby as his teammate.

[Mr. Body]

Some of you people would have traded the #1 pick (Tim Duncan) for the two Celtics picks that wound up becoming Keith Van Horn and Ron Mercer, because there were two of them and they filled greater needs.

[rascal]

I'm not talking playing style, just tier of player. I also named Harden, Lillard, Irving and Westbrook. Did you really think I consider all those players to have similar games?

If (huge if) Harper becomes a Trae Young tier player, e.i: an extremely flawed, empty calories, "franchise player", I'd much rather have 2 or 3 elite role players.

He's more of a Dwayne Wade potential type of player. Just needs some work on his perimeter shot and he's there with Wade with his ability to get to the basket.

Wade was a beast in his prime.

[rascal]

To play Devil's Advocate... Dylan Harper is also an unproven player who has done jack in his career as far as contributing to winning basketball. TMIII and Herb are significantly more proven. However... Dylan Harper's potential is higher than both of those guys and that is what his appeal is. But there is a very real chance Harper never accomplishes anything near what those two guys have.

And just so we are all on the same page...

TMIII averaged 21ppg this season. Everyone's favorite chucker, Devin Vassell, never did that and a lot of people were thinking he was worth 2 FRPs last summer.

Herb Jones is an All Defensive 1st Teamer and finished 5th in DPOY voting.

These guys aren't scrubs and are more than just role players.

With that said, I'm still not saying I would do that deal... but like I said in the previous post, folks are underrating those two in the excitement of the moment. #2 and Devin and filler for #7 and TMIII and Herb is pretty close to even, IMO. I bet if you asked levelheaded NOLA fans, many of them would say no.. a decent indication that this is a fairly even trade.

Package Vassell and a first for your boy TMIII. Don't lose the superstar potential of Harper for TMIII.

[scott]

Package Vassell and a first for your boy TMIII. Don't lose the superstar potential of Harper for TMIII.

I definitely think we should be sending Vassell off to somewhere (Siberia maybe?), but I don't think TMIII is the right guy if we're going to have Fox/Castle/Harper on our team (which, if it's not clear, I still prefer... I just think the trade scenarios are worth discussing).

Lauri is probably a good archetype to pair with those 3 and Wemby... but I don't want his contract. Myles Turner and JJJ would actually probably be the perfect guys, but I don't think either are available, nor do we have the capital to acquire them (while keeping Harper and Castle), and I don't want to pay them either. Who are guys at #14 with the potential to grow into a Turner/JJJ type player?

[Baam]

I can't believe some in here are entertaining the thought of trading away getting the incredible luck of getting a future superstar player for some role players.

You can trade Vassell, Keldon and Sochan for role players to fill out roster needs.

Fultz and Lonzo were supposed to be superstar PGs until they were nothing. Something is better than nothing. Spurs don't need to take the gamble, Wemby doesn't have to wait. Just get the elite role players and make the leap.

If this team doesn't add shooting in starting positions it will be capped much lower than it should.

[heyheymymy]

No Giannis
No Flagg

Draft Harper

[thOOdee]

Fultz and Lonzo were supposed to be superstar PGs until they were nothing. Something is better than nothing. Spurs don't need to take the gamble, Wemby doesn't have to wait. Just get the elite role players and take the leap.

If this team doesn't add shooting in starting positions it will be capped much lower than it should.

completely agree with this, and the comparisons of trading harper being equivalent to DUNCAN for mercer and vanhorn is crazy. Haprer will not be duncan. Count on it.

HOWEVER, we have warchest of 1sts. There is no way spurs shouldnt be able to find players that fit the shooting/rebounding needs as time goes on. Its not loke tmiii was a top 10 pick.

the only problem with this is spurs weakness over the last few years in developing players. But if the spurs’s plan was to ac ulate this war chest, all while knowing they were going to avoid and hide from actually developing players, future is ed no matter what they do.

[Vienna]

all the theories aside regarding overlaping skills, as it has been mentioned, IF Castle and Harper somehow work together, that would be a very special back court.
and I do think Spurs Coaches and FO want to find out about this before they make any moves involving one of them.
the selling point is the time line IMO.
IF it works AND it works with Wemby, you are talking about a big 3 core for 15 Years to come.
sure, Spurs would love to win a 6th championship with Giannis. maybe #7.
BUT........the potential to build a new dynasty for a decade or more, THAT should be the most intriguing goal. five more rings.

[rankingtear]

I think the Franz one someone suggested is good he matches Dylan Harper theoretical upside without the risk and the possible devaluation of Castle/Fox acquisition. TMIII riding is insane the guy won't do in the playoffs.

[The Truth #6]

It will be sad and hilarious when on draft day the Spurs end up not trading the pick... and picking VJ Edgecombe. With the Spurs you always have to prepare for something a little off-kilter and or stupid.

[exstatic]

It will be sad and hilarious when on draft day the Spurs end up not trading the pick... and picking VJ Edgecombe. With the Spurs you always have to prepare for something a little off-kilter and or stupid.

Not with a top pick. They never F around with those. If they keep the pick, they’re taking Harper.

[mo7888]

I definitely think we should be sending Vassell off to somewhere (Siberia maybe?), but I don't think TMIII is the right guy if we're going to have Fox/Castle/Harper on our team (which, if it's not clear, I still prefer... I just think the trade scenarios are worth discussing).

Lauri is probably a good archetype to pair with those 3 and Wemby... but I don't want his contract. Myles Turner and JJJ would actually probably be the perfect guys, but I don't think either are available, nor do we have the capital to acquire them (while keeping Harper and Castle), and I don't want to pay them either. Who are guys at #14 with the potential to grow into a Turner/JJJ type player?

I actually think TMIII fits great here short-term. You run a Fox, Castle or Harper, TMIII, Barnes, and Wemby lineup and bring one of Castle or Harper off the bench.

[LeBowen]

While we're at potential SFs, call me crazy, but I'd take MPJ if he's available for no FRPs given up.
He's had a career year this regular season, his playoff struggles are due to his shoulder injury which is mechanical and didn't happen because he's an injury risk.
He's been healthy for almost 3 years before that. And has performed well in the playoffs up until this injury.

6'10, elite 3pt shooter and a good rebounder. Two years left on his contract, it's done before Wemby's extension kicks in.
$38M next season, Devin and Keldon will make $8M more and he'd surely be more useful than two of them.

Just to make it clear again, I wouldn't give up even a single FRP for him, but Nuggets will probably move him and if being the third team similar to Barnes trade is all it takes, then I'd do it, no questions asked.
Even if he doesn't deliver, he'd be an expiring in 2026 summer and easy to move.

[Dejounte]

While we're at potential SFs, call me crazy, but I'd take MPJ if he's available for no FRPs given up.
He's had a career year this regular season, his playoff struggles are due to his shoulder injury which is mechanical and didn't happen because he's an injury risk.
He's been healthy for almost 3 years before that. And has performed well in the playoffs up until this injury.

6'10, elite 3pt shooter and a good rebounder. Two years left on his contract, it's done before Wemby's extension kicks in.
$38M next season, Devin and Keldon will make $8M more and he'd surely be more useful than two of them.

Just to make it clear again, I wouldn't give up even a single FRP for him, but Nuggets will probably move him and if being the third team similar to Barnes trade is all it takes, then I'd do it, no questions asked.
Even if he doesn't deliver, he'd be an expiring in 2026 summer and easy to move.

I think that move would cement Fox, Castle, Harper never playing together at the 1,2,3, no?

[Mal]

While we're at potential SFs, call me crazy, but I'd take MPJ if he's available for no FRPs given up.

Denver might be looking for depth going forward. MPJ for Vassell and Keldon would make sense.
But still, if we are looking at short team solution at forwards, I prefer Durant for same package, no FRP added. Phoenix would end with 5 players playing same position, while being paid 150 mil, but thats their problem

[Mal]

I think that move would cement Fox, Castle, Harper never playing together at the 1,2,3, no?

I can imagine playing those 3 with Sochan and switch everything with constant ball pressure, while Wemby defends the paint with his length.

[LeBowen]

I think that move would cement Fox, Castle, Harper never playing together at the 1,2,3, no?

I don't think they should all start together, at least not in Harper's rookie season.
If he actually is on that Cade trajectory, then you make adjustments for 26-27.

Ideally we'd want Collins/Naz type at PF, but even Fox/Castle/Barnes/MPJ/Wemby would be deadly, how do you stop those guards from getting to the rim with elite spacing around them and Wemby running slow bigs off the floor?
If we get Harper, that should be the primary objective of this roster. Get more frontcourt shooting around Wemby to enable elite paint penetrators to do whatever they want.

And MPJ would be a stop gap, I'm just looking for solid players with low current value that wouldn't mess with the cap space in 2027 and onwards. We have two more seasons to do whatever with cap space, after that it gets tricky.

[Degoat]

Spurs have to draft Harper it’s a no brainer, however when it comes to the Starting lineups I’m honestly leaning Fox/Harper starting, I love Castle and his tenacious play but his numbers were ballooned up this year with wemby and Fox missing a big portion of the year.

[mo7888]

As I said earlier, I'm in favor of keeping #2. That said, we are pretty sure there's going to be a conversation with Milwaukee for Giannis, so if your 'talking' with them do you also pick up the phone and check in with Denver and LA? Wouldn't due diligence dictate that they do that? It's not a prediction or a suggestion that there's a deal there on either side, but I think you have to check in. Luka might not like being in LA and refuses to sign an extension or maybe Denver ownership gets cheap and won't reasonably put a team around the Joker? I'm just saying that I don't think Nico is the last boneheaded GM in the be league.

[baseline bum]

It will be sad and hilarious when on draft day the Spurs end up not trading the pick... and picking VJ Edgecombe. With the Spurs you always have to prepare for something a little off-kilter and or stupid.

If there is one thing the Spurs absolutely love in the draft it's big guards who can run an offense. Though I'm sure there will be a ton of discussion in the front office about trading the pick too. I'd be really surprised with them drafting Edgecombe over Harper though.