Pick #14 - Strategies

[RC_Drunkford]

I'm really curious what 14+Vassell/Keldon+38 would get us.

Lauri
S&T for Jollins
JJJ
TMIII
KD

that's a huge overpay for Collins. Keldon + Branham and 2-3 second round picks should be enough to get that done.

[scott]

I'm really curious what 14+Vassell/Keldon+38 would get us.

Lauri
S&T for Jollins
JJJ
TMIII
KD

My guess says probably only Jollins out of that bunch.

KD isn’t worth more, but you’ll at least have to add more to match the salary.

Lauri, JJJ and TMIII will all take hauls. TMIII is close to untouchable for NOP, but I’m sure they would do the deal if it meant moving up to #2… but I don’t see a scenario where they agree to TMIII for Vassell and #14.

I also don’t think we should be thinking of any additional max players, personally. Jollins and TMIII are the only two on the list who will be on reasonable deals (TMIII on a bargain deal, tbh).

[buujness]

If they keep the pick, count me as a fan of taking Cedric Coward. Really solid all-around player, both offensively and defensively. Tends to make the right play in just about any situation. He'd be really additive.

[baseline bum]

The trouble with Fleming is the what I call the Jalen Williams OKC problem.

You draft an older player who hits the ground running and looks like a brilliant pick, a steal.

But as good as he is, he still has a ceiling that is what it is.

Then you have to pay him at some point, maybe the max.

Then a bargain becomes a dilemma.

The key with a guy like Jalen Williams or Fleming is timing.

If you're a mature winning team, you can pick those guys, use them and then let them walk.

But if you're a young emerging team, and you make them one of your building blocks, then you may have a problem.

The question is, what stage are the Spurs at now?

I think the Spurs are a year or so away from taking a guy like Fleming.

If Fleming ends up worth a max contract in four years you just trade him for cost controlled young guys and picks. Seems like a great problem to have.

[baseline bum]

that's a huge overpay for Collins. Keldon + Branham and 2-3 second round picks should be enough to get that done.

I'd rather get out of Vassell's money

[scott]

If Fleming ends up worth a max contract in four years you just trade him for cost controlled young guys and picks. Seems like a great problem to have.

Yep. I think this is the model in OKC that Presti is trying to put in place... you have your core (SGA/Chet/Williams in OKCs case), now you just keep filling the pipeline with supporting talent and then flip it right before it gets expensive to refill the coffers with picks to keep loading up the talent pipeline.

Wemby/Castle/Harper can be that core for us, and then we just look to do the same (though we currently have less picks to do it with, though our picks are all very high quality due to the swaps attached).

[LeBowen]

I think this is the model in OKC that Presti is trying to put in place... you have your core (SGA/Chet/Williams in OKCs case)

My hot take would be that Presti won't offer two rookie max extensions and that one of Williams/Chet gets traded, even if they win a ring.
Williams is kind of too similar to SGA and hasn't shown he'd be worth the money. Presti always tries to be the smartest one in the room, I'm sure he'll try to fleece someone for Williams.

[CGD]

Only shot 3s well last year and not his first 2 college years. Easy to doubt how legit of a shooter he is.

Can't create for himself, only third in scoring on his crap college team

Disappeared in the conference and NIT tourny games his team played

So there's a strong argument to be made that he's just a guy with good measurements who got hot in a still small shooting sample, it happens.

Thanks -- sounds like the range is justified then.

[CGD]

I agree but, right now, Vassell is a Spur with $106M/4 years left on his contract. I'm not counting him out of the rotation as long as he hasn't been traded.

Getting Harper should really push Spurs to trade Vassell. Vassell would play SF next season and would be the 4th offensive option most of the time he is on the court (behind 2 of Fox/Castle/Harper and Wemby). It's a bad setup for him to be successful.

Do you watch much of Noa Essengue in Europe? What are your thoughts?
If we are taking big swings at 14, seems like his profile would make sense.

[scott]

My hot take would be that Presti won't offer two rookie max extensions and that one of Williams/Chet gets traded, even if they win a ring.
Williams is kind of too similar to SGA and hasn't shown he'd be worth the money. Presti always tries to be the smartest one in the room, I'm sure he'll try to fleece someone for Williams.

My hot take is that Chet hasn't earned a rookie max extension anyway since he's missed half his games over 3 years, so he'll end up taking a lesser deal, and JWill takes a slight discount versus the full max he'll be eligible for.

[baseline bum]

My hot take would be that Presti won't offer two rookie max extensions and that one of Williams/Chet gets traded, even if they win a ring.
Williams is kind of too similar to SGA and hasn't shown he'd be worth the money. Presti always tries to be the smartest one in the room, I'm sure he'll try to fleece someone for Williams.

I don't think either of JDub/Holmgren will be supermax eligible, so if they're 25% max players I think Presti keeps them.

[baseline bum]

Yep. I think this is the model in OKC that Presti is trying to put in place... you have your core (SGA/Chet/Williams in OKCs case), now you just keep filling the pipeline with supporting talent and then flip it right before it gets expensive to refill the coffers with picks to keep loading up the talent pipeline.

Wemby/Castle/Harper can be that core for us, and then we just look to do the same (though we currently have less picks to do it with, though our picks are all very high quality due to the swaps attached).

And if you believe what Windhorst says about the way players talk about Wemby in the locker room after games you might get a decent flow of supporting vets wanting to come here on say MLE deals to keep reloading the roster.

[LeBowen]

I don't think either of JDub/Holmgren will be supermax eligible, so if they're 25% max players I think Presti keeps them.

That would still be 2x25% max deals and SGA's 35% supermax would kick in a year later.

[baseline bum]

That would still be 2x25% max deals and SGA's 35% supermax would kick in a year later.

I imagine they'll stay around the first apron. But they're also going to be helped by the 10% yearly rises to the cap over the next 8 years or so. So no situation like Phoenix with three 35% supermaxes on a stagnant cap that made those contracts take up a greater percentage of the cap every year. This era max contracts decline as a percentage of the cap due to the Bird raises being smaller then the yearly cap bump in addition to player raises being non compounded while cap rises are compounded. OKC will lose Caruso, they'll probably lose Dort, and no way they're going to be able to pay Hartenstein long term but I think they'll have little trouble keeping Holmgren and JDub together on 25% max deals and then Cason Wallace will slide to being their starter in Dort's place. Well unless Topic blows up.

[Mr. Body]

And if you believe what Windhorst says about the way players talk about Wemby in the locker room after games you might get a decent flow of supporting vets wanting to come here on say MLE deals to keep reloading the roster.

Brandon Sanderson novels are immensely popular in the NBA.

[Mugen]

Essengue tbh. Could end up being the perfect 4 next to Wemby in a few years if he adds muscle.

[spurraider21]

Essengue tbh. Could end up being the perfect 4 next to Wemby in a few years if he adds muscle.

of course the president of the Salaun fan club would want Essengue

stop trying to make [insert french forward with upside] happen

[sfernald]

It's a dilemma, but never a bad one.

You don't pass on a player because he'll be too good.
Maybe OKC won't pay Williams, but they can get a lot for him and keep the roster going.

lol you guys are ing crazy if you think Okc isn’t giving JDub the baby max. And I’m sure any other team in the league would as well. Hahahaha

[baseline bum]

Essengue tbh. Could end up being the perfect 4 next to Wemby in a few years if he adds muscle.

I think there isn't a lot of reason to chase upside over more certain fits after Harper. Because even if it hits the Spurs won't be able to pay him if they're paying Wemby/Castle/Harper.

[Mr. Body]

it. The one I really want is Derik Queen to drop.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

it. The one I really want is Derik Queen to drop.

I think both him and CMB will drop a lot after their recent showing. Truly horrible measurements for Queen and shooting for CMB.

Wouldn't want either anywhere near the Spurs roster.

[HankChinaski]

Fleming, C. Coward, Bryant, Sorber, who I think they should consider at 14 if they are there

[scottspurs]

If he stays in school he committed to Transfer to Duke.

Anyways all aboard the Cedric Coward Train! Pick 14 let’s goooooooo

[baseline bum]

Brandon Sanderson novels are immensely popular in the NBA.

Can't say I know who that is.

[baseline bum]

I think both him and CMB will drop a lot after their recent showing. Truly horrible measurements for Queen and shooting for CMB.

Wouldn't want either anywhere near the Spurs roster.

That was hard to watch CMB in the shooting drills.