An argument that Tim Duncan is one of the five greatest players to ever play in the NBA

[SanAntonioSpurs]

Tim Duncan is criminally underrated. I maintain that he was in the top three or top four of the greatest basketball players to ever play in the NBA. Nobody reasonable disputes the fact that Michael Jordan was the greatest player ever. If you don't count the 1995 campaign because he joined late and wasn't in playing shape, in consecutive years when he was playing in the NBA he won six Finals MVP awards. Yet, Michael only made the 2nd team ALL NBA in his first year (1985) and didn't make an ALL NBA team in the other two of his first three years and he didn't make an ALL NBA DEFENSE team in any of his first three seasons. Moreover, his teams HAD A LOSING RECORD each of his first three years 38-44, 30-52, and 40-42.
Tim Duncan made the All NBA DEFENSE and ALL NBA teams each of his first eight years with the exception of 2004 when he made second team ALL NBA DEFENSE. He also won 50 games every year he was in the league with the exception of the shortened season in 1999 when they won the NBA Finals and he was Finals MVP. They made the playoffs every single year he was in the league. Jordan's Bulls only made the playoffs those first three years because a losing record didn't prohibit you from making the playoffs in the Leastern Conference in those years. Michael was on ten ALL NBA DEFENSE teams, nine first team. That's pretty good. Tim Duncan was on FIFTEEN (15) ALL NBA DEFENSE teams, ten of them first team. Michael made ten ALL NBA teams, but Tim again comes in with 15. Michael made 14 ALL STAR games, but Tim bests him with 15 again.

Shaq put up gaudy numbers. But when you compare their first eight years as evaluated by 100 broadcasters and sportswriters who cover the sport, Shaq comes away with less hardware. Since Timmy's game isn't as spectacular and is considered "boring" by many, the bias isn't against Shaq who also played for larger market teams and more high profile teams. Shaq was Rookie of the Year and an ALL STAR his first year in the NBA, in 1993. However, he didn't make either an ALL NBA or ALL NBA DEFENSE team in 1993. He made ZERO ALL NBA DEFENSE TEAMS UNTIL 2000, THE ONLY ALL NBA DEFENSE TEAMS HE MADE WERE ALL SECOND TEAM AND HE ONLY MADE THREE OF THOSE. He made the third team ALL NBA in 1994, the second team ALL NBA in 1995, and the third team ALL NBA in both 1996 and 1997. Shaq did make the first team ALL NBA in 1998, but only made the second team ALL NBA in 1999.


Timmy's numbers weren't as gawdy and eye catching as Shaq's. And if you only look at box score counting statistics, Shaq's numbers are amazing and Tim Duncan's look good but more mortal. However, when you adjust for pace and you look at his numbers per 100 possessions and look at the playoffs, they improve significantly. Then you look at advanced statistics and you weight defense equally with offense, and you the balance of the ledger strongly favors Tim Duncan.

Hakeem Olajuwon was one of the greatest players, on offense and defense, ever. He had two years when he played the center position better than it had ever been played before. His 1995 playoff run will forever remain a thing of legend. He demolished three historically great Hall of Game centers in 1995, the great HOFer Patrick Ewing, the great HOFer David Robinson, and the great HOFer Shaq. He had many amazing years. How did he compare to Tim Duncan in the awards? In 1985, Hakeem's first year, he made the third team ALL NBA DEFENSE, no ALL NBA teams. In 1986, his second year, he made the second team ALL NBA, but no ALL NBA DEFENSE team. From 1987-1988, he made both the first team ALL NBA team and the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE team. In 1989, he made the first ALL NBA DEFENSE team, but did not make any ALL NBA team. In 1990, he made the ALL NBA second team and the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE team. In 1991, Hakeem made the third team ALL NBA and the second team ALL NBA DEFENSE. In 1992, he struck out on those honors.

Again, Tim Duncan in his first eight years accomplished some things that nobody else did when you put them all together:
1. ALL STAR every year they held an ALL STAR game (1999 there was no all star game because of the lockout).
2. ALL NBA first team every year
3. ALL NBA first team DEFENSE except 2004 when he was on the second team ALL NBA DEFENSE.
4. Averaged 20 points per game or better and 10 rebounds per game and 2 blocks or more per game and 2 assists per game or better in both the regular season and the playoffs with the exception of his first year in the playoffs when he averaged 20 points per game and only 9 rebounds per game (compared to ten) and only gave out 1.9 assists per game.
5. Had a winning record and made the playoffs every year
6. Won 50 games every season except in the lockout year when they didn't even play fifty games.


Tim Duncan's play off numbers were, in general, significantly better in the playoffs than in the long 82 game regular season when he aged and remained a strong defensive presence protecting the rim in the postseason. So let's look at Tim Duncan's first eight years.

1. 1997-1998 Tim Duncan was on the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE and first time ALL NBA and Rookie of the Year and was an ALL STAR. In the regular season in 1998, he averaged 21.1 points per game, 11.9 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, and 2.7 assists. In the playoffs, Tim averaged 20.7 points per game, 9 rebounds per game, 2.6 blocks per game, and 1.9 assists per game. His team won more than 50 games and made the playoffs.
2. 1998-1999 Tim Duncan was on the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE and the ALL NBA team, was an ALL STAR and was the Finals MVP. In the regular season, he averaged 21.7 points per game, 11.4 rebounds per game, 2.5 blocks per game, and 2.4 assists per game. In the playoffs, Tim Duncan averaged 23.2 points per game, 11.5 rebounds per game, 2.6 blocks per game, and 2.8 assists per game.
3. 1999-2000 (injury) Tim Duncan made both the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE but also the first ALL NBA team and was an ALL STAR as well. In the regular season, he averaged 23.2 points per game, 11.4 rebounds per game, 2.2 blocks per game, and 3.2 assists per game. In the playoffs, he averaged 24.4 points per game, 14.5 rebounds per game, 2.7 blocks per game, and 3.8 assists per game.
4. 2000-2001 Tim Duncan made both the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE and first team ALL NBA and was an ALL STAR. In the regular season, he averaged 22.2 points per game, 12.2 rebounds per game, 2.3 blocks per game, and 3.0 assists per game. In the playoffs, he averaged 27.6 points per game, 14.4 rebounds per game, 4.3 blocks per game, and 5.0 assists per game.
5. 2001-2002 Tim Duncan made both the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE and the first team ALL NBA and was an ALL STAR. In the regular season, he averaged 25.5 points per game, 12.7 rebounds per game, 2.5 blocks per game, and 3.7 assists per game. In the playoffs, he averaged 24.7 points per game, 15.4 rebounds per game, 3.3 blocks per game, and 5.3 assists per game.
6. 2002-2003 Tim Duncan made both the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE and the first team ALL NBA and was an ALL STAR, and was Finals MVP. He had the greatest win share in the Spurs playoff championship run in 2003 of any NBA player in any playoff since the statistic has been recorded. In the regular season, he averaged 23.3 points per game, 12.9 rebounds per game, 2.9 blocks per game, and 3.9 assists per game. In the playoffs, he averaged 22.1 points per game, 11.3 rebounds per game, 2 blocks per game, and 3.2 assists per game.
7. 2003-2004 Tim Duncan made the second team ALL NBA DEFENSE but he made the first team ALL NBA in 2004, the only year in which he didn't make the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE of his first eight years. In the regular season, he averaged 22.3 points per game, 12.4 rebounds per game, 2.7 blocks per game, and 3.1 assists per game. In the playoffs, he averaged 23.6 points per game, 12.4 rebounds per game, 2.3 blocks per game, and 2.8 assists per game.
8. 2004-2005 Tim Duncan made both the first team ALL NBA DEFENSE and the first team ALL NBA, was an ALL STAR, and the Finals MVP. In the regular season, he averaged 20.3 points per game, 11.1 rebounds per game, 2.6 blocks per game, and 2.7 assists per game. In the playoffs, he averaged 25.8 points per game, 10.5 rebounds per game, 1.9 blocks per game, and 3.3 assists per game.

538 combined win shares and value over replacement player to obtain WOR (win over replacement player) and Tim Duncan has the greatest such statistic over the time period from 1973 to 2016.
For players who guard at least 15 shots from five feet in, Tim Duncan finished in the top seven for opponent's lowest field goal percentage eleven (11) times, top two six (6) times, and the single lowest field goal percentage four (4) times. Tim Duncan was in the top five MVP voting numerous times, winning twice. Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker deserved their Finals MVPs. Had the Spurs won the 2013 NBA Finals, there can be no doubt that Tim Duncan would have won Finals MVP. In 2013, Timmy had one last glorious run boosting his numbers considerably and returning to both first team ALL NBA DEFENSE and first team ALL NBA.

If you consider the entirety of the 2007 regular season and the entirety of the 2007 playoffs, Tim Duncan was the best player on the Spurs. Tim Duncan's offensive statistics for the 2007 playoffs as a whole and for the 2007 regular season as a whole were both close to Tony Parker's and clearly in 2007 Tim Duncan was a far greater factor in the quality of the Spurs defense than Tony Parker. Therefore, when we look at the 2007 Spurs season as a whole, we must conclude that Tim Duncan was the best player on the team in 2007.

By 2014, Kawhi Leonard had earned his way onto the second team ALL NBA DEFENSE and Tim Duncan wasn't put there. Yet, it's reasonable to argue that Tim Duncan had a greater impact on the Spurs defense as the big man protecting the rim than Kawhi Leonard. When you look at both the whole of the regular season of 2014 and the entirety of the playoffs in 2014, Tim Duncan was the Spurs best player as he put up better numbers over the entire 2014 regular season as a whole and the entire 2014 regular season as a whole than Kawhi Leonard in 2014 and he had a more significant influence on the quality of the Spurs defense than Kawhi as excellent as nephew was that year. Therefore, when we consider the 2014 Spurs season as a whole, we must conclude that Tim Duncan was the best player on the Spurs that season.

Therefore, we can safely conclude that Tim Duncan was the best player on FIVE championship winning Spurs teams. Only two other players in the NBA can successfully make that argument, the argument that they were the best player on FIVE championship winning teams. Michael Jordan is one and Magic Johnson is the only other player who can successfully make that argument. Advance stats augment and strengthen this argument that Tim Duncan is between the second and fourth best player to ever play basketball in the NBA.

[John B]

Man that was a lengthy read. I got Timmy top 3, behind MJ and Kareem.

19 years straight playoffs with all winning records. Who does that? Won 3 rings with no top 75 teammates. IF Spurs only signed Scola (and my biggest what if) he could’ve banged with Gasol, Z-Bo, Ibaka. Maybe prevented Kobe those two rings, or took that rebound in 2013. MAYBE tied or bested MJ’s ring count which would arguably make him the GOAT (because Jordan missed playoffs). BIG IF. Just the same, Timmy is top 3 in my books.

[RC_Drunkford]

that's not even an argument tbh. Even the biggest Spurs haters on ESPN say he should be top 5

[LeBowen]

Basketball is a team game.
Noone has done more for one franchise than Duncan, not even close.
Went from a franchise that would've probably been relocated post-Admiral to the best organization in sports.
Even MJ didn't do as much for the Bulls because they went back to being garbage as soon as he retired.

Duncan was the biggest enabler of winning after Bill Russell, but those were some other times.

[Chillen]

He's top 5 all-time for sure. Should have more championships.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

He is but he won’t be acknowledged by the average fan or media because of his low key personality and the fact he played in an era which wasn’t kind to counting stats.

Jokic will be similar when he retires and disappears from the public eye. His legacy will take a hit too.

[Ice009]

Steve Kerr rated him in his top 5 shortly after he retired (not sure if he still has the same opinion). I feel he was at least more qualified than most by having played with both the Bulls and Spurs. I only say this because I haven't actually heard hardly any of these former players or talking heads put TD in their top 5.

[Russo21]

If Duncan had the exact same career, all the wins all the losses, all achievements, everything exactly the same yet he achieved that career in lets say, the success starved huge market pathetic New York he'd be revered all over as top 2. To achieve what he achieved in tiny market financially poor mass media hating San Antonio is nothing short of miraculous and GOAT worthy.

[Obstructed_View]

No matter what anyone says, Duncan is by far as consequential a player as anyone who ever suited up in the NBA. He won les through multiple eras with multiple teammates, kept them together, created a culture envied by everyone in pro sports, and never sought any credit for it.

If you were to start a franchise with any player at x years old, you choose Duncan, and only Duncan. He always showed up in shape, he always made his teammates better, he was effective as long as anyone not named Lebron, and he stayed for his entire career. Goat.

I'll never forgive Popovich for costing the Spurs at least two more shots at a le because of his mismanagement. Six or seven would have put Timmy in the conversation with Jordan.

[SanAntonioSpurs]

It was extremely long, too long. For most people, it's a TLDR. Sorry. Thank you for taking the time to look at it.

[keeferob25]

Actually, at this point, the onus is on one to argue how Duncan is NOT a top 5 player of all-time. I typically rank based on the "modern era" and view Bill Russell and Wilt et al a the two greatest and there era as the pioneering era so they all are "greater" than modern era players as they are mostly responsible for the game today. But as it relates to the modern era Duncan is my #2 all-time player and quite frankly I believe he is THE greatest franchise centerpiece of all-time.

There's a ton of reasons why for me but ultimately i sum it up as he's done the MOST winning etc while having the LEAST amount of supporting elements that others have had the benefit of (ie marquee franchises, attractive cities, deep pockets, superstars etc, pre-established coaches, league favoritism, conference strength/weakness etc).

There's a graphic somewhere that showed the amount of luxury tax that each franchise has paid from about 2001 - 2016/2017 i believe and at the top you have the Lakers, Dallas, Brooklyn, GS, Boston, Miami etc....all teams that have won les. THey were all over 100 MILLION in Luxury tax highlighting the deep pocket benefit. Duncan's spurs were like 25th at 37 million over 15 years. That is UNBELIEVABLE for FIVE championships and 6 trips to the finals where they could have had one more.

If the goal in all of sports is to win by ANY means necessary...he's history's greatest elevator of teams for the modern era.

[Leetonidas]

Yes

[spurraider21]

it always depends how wilt/russell are treated. if you include them, i think duncan gets pushed out of the top 5

Michael, Bron, Bird are top 3 to me. then you take 2 of Magic/Kareem/Duncan to round out your top 5. i'd exclude magic.

[spurraider21]

Man that was a lengthy read. I got Timmy top 3, behind MJ and Kareem.

19 years straight playoffs with all winning records. Who does that? Won 3 rings with no top 75 teammates. IF Spurs only signed Scola (and my biggest what if) he could’ve banged with Gasol, Z-Bo, Ibaka. Maybe prevented Kobe those two rings, or took that rebound in 2013. MAYBE tied or bested MJ’s ring count which would arguably make him the GOAT (because Jordan missed playoffs). BIG IF. Just the same, Timmy is top 3 in my books.

lebron james?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

it always depends how wilt/russell are treated. if you include them, i think duncan gets pushed out of the top 5

Michael, Bron, Bird are top 3 to me. then you take 2 of Magic/Kareem/Duncan to round out your top 5. i'd exclude magic.

What’s Bird’s case over Duncan?

[Ice009]

What’s Bird’s case over Duncan?

I didn't want to comment as I've never really watched Bird or Magic play, but I would have easily put TD over him. I don't know how good he was, though, as maybe he'd have a lot more rings if it wasn't for the Lakers and Celtics going against each other all the time. I assume the Lakers also had more talent since they won the more rings between the teams? Or did the Celtics have some injuries during those playoffs/series where they didn't win it?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I didn't want to comment as I've never really watched Bird or Magic play, but I would have easily put TD over him. I don't know how good he was, though, as maybe he'd have a lot more rings if it wasn't for the Lakers and Celtics going against each other all the time. I assume the Lakers also had more talent since they won the more rings between the teams? Or did the Celtics have some injuries during those playoffs/series where they didn't win it?

Yeah I have Bird lower than Duncan, easily. The only thing he has more of is one more MVP. Other than that literally everything else is in Timmy’s favor.