I wonder if it's worth a different thread to focus on what other teams might be doing rather than our own.
Any case, it feels like the top 5 spots are more or less settled, although some variation and trade-ups might occur:
Flagg
Harper
Bailey/?
Edgecombe
Johnson
I feel like Philly is one inflection point, but that won't impact that much in terms of what players are picked. They might trade down, etc., but the players will very likely be these five.
For us, the first major inflection point is Washington at #6. What they do has knock-on effects for everyone thereafter.
Queen/Fears
These are the most obvious picks for them, to me. Queen, the local kid who can be bolstered by good frontline defense of Sarr and Coulibaly. Or a genuine offensive focal point as they try to move Poole.
The following two teams are New Orleans and Brooklyn, who I think would both be interested in Fears. Queen might not be in play - if not picked by Washington - until a team like Chicago. Brooklyn may need to make a big swing, but have to settle with Kasparas or Knueppel. Which impacts what is available to the Rockets in terms of playmaking and shooting.
Everyone is penciling Maluach in for Toronto, although he might not be. This may be the second main inflection point, whether Maluach is taken out of circulation - if the Spurs want a big, then it would leave Sorber as a last lottery-grade choice for Chicago.
So, that Washington pick impacts a lot following. Mainly whether Fears goes there. And then what Toronto does, if taking a big.
Those moves impact Houston, which impacts us. And impacts Chicago and Atlanta, which impact us. A team that may be looking at wings is Portland, who may snake a Carter Bryant or Essengue.
If I had to guess right now:
DAL - Flagg
SAS - Harper
PHI - Bailey
CHA - Edgecombe
UTA - Johnson
WAS - Queen
NOP - Knueppel
BKN - Fears
TOR - Maluach
HOU - Jakucionas
POR - ?? Essengue
CHI - Sorber
ATL - Murray-Boyles
SAS - ??
Tankathon, for example, has Fears going to Utah before Tre Johnson (Washington). And as the lottery goes on things get uncertain. But these are possible choices these teams will make.
I agree Philly won't affect to much even if they trade it. I think the next inflection point is somewhere between 7 and 11. I could see anyone of those teams deciding that it's time to take a step forward and trade the pick for a veteran. I think this is the interest portion of the draft and it'll greatly effect who's there at 14.
Great thread idea. Lets stipulate that you're right on the Top 5 (though i can see an outside chance of Kon to Utah). I agree on your takes. Some additional thoughts:
-- WAS@6: Here in the DC area there seems to be a lot of talk of Queen at #6. Seems to fit the need, which is offense. Being petty, but I reject the DC/Baltimore "hometown" talking point (it's like saying an San Antonio kid that plays for UT is a "hometown kid"), BUT I will note that Bub Carrington is from Baltimore too and they're boys.
-- NOLA@7: Screams the next best PG prospect so i agree on Fears (unless they overwhelm us for Harper...)
Mysteries to me:
1. Brooklyn: Feel like a Kasparas home, but also feels like a very tradable pick.
2. Is Kon the surprise faller this draft? If Portland passes on him at 11, could he actually get to 14??
3. Will Bryant really rise as much as people think? How far? Toronto at 9?
This is my order too, except flip CMB and Sorber. Either way if board shakes out this way Spurs probably just go ahead and take Carter Bryant and don't get too cute trading down, with the surprise pick being Raynaud.
I agree on Queen, but then I'm big on him becoming something of an offensive star. That he shouted out Baltimore after he hit the game-winner in the tournament game can't hurt.
You're pointing out that there are soft spots in the draft as much as inflection points. I agree that Brooklyn probably isn't too excited with anyone they will see at their spot when they're digging for franchise pieces, and Portland may not like what's available either. I can see Brooklyn looking to trade somehow. They have late first round picks as it is.
Bryant is a mystery. He doesn't seem lottery grade to me, but someone may take a swing, and... who knows. Houston, Chicago, Toronto, Portland?
And... if somehow Kon starts tumbling, the Spurs should see what they can do to get there for themselves (and keep him away from Houston). It probably costs too much to move up to Brooklyn or Toronto. If he somehow survives Houston - who may still believe in the smaller Reed Sheppard - then I think the Spurs might be able to swap with Portland or Chicago.
- NOP will take a PG in my opinion, which makes #6 a strong Fears slot.
- While HOU needs a PG, Jaku does not strike me as an Ime guy (I see Jaku in BKN). I can see them going for CMB here, or reaching on Jase's NBA pedigree to help with their shooting needs.
- Portland is my sleeper to take a swing on Bryant at 8, but I have a hard time seeing them pass on Kon if he's there
- Sorber is a reach at 12 or 13, but I can see one of those teams taking him there. If it's Chicago I have no clue what Atlanta does.
Kon may slip in the draft.
I know he's a Spurstalk favorite but why would the Spurs draft another guard after drafting Harper? Where will Kon get any minutes?
Portland is definitely a wild card here because they don’t necessarily have any huge needs so they will be deciding between BPA and fit
Hornets are also a bit of a wild card because they don’t seem to have a direction that they want to go. Something tells me Ace Bailey falls to 4 and they take him
the more bigs that can get pushed down the better.
Thanks OP, this was one of my favorite threads last year when at 4 and 8 we really had more at stake in the game theory of how the draft would play out. This is of less importance to us this year at 2 and 14, but still a lot of fun to think about and certainly there is an interesting range of options for us with that second pick.
Here are my opinions of how each team (aside from the Spurs) will approach their selection:
Dallas @ #1: There really is not much to discuss here. Flagg is in a class of his own and no matter how many brain cells Nico Harrison may have killed by sniffing Kobe's farts for years, not even he can screw this up. I really wish Flagg and Harper were closer as prospects, because Harper fits DAL a lot cleaner and likewise Flagg fits our team better... but that's the way the lotto balls fall. It would take a truly insane offer to get Dallas off this pick (something along the lines of Giannis for #1 straight up), and I don't see it happening. I don't see any realistic scenario where they choose anyone else over Flagg at #1 or choosing to trade down.
- Prediction: Cooper Flagg
Philly @ #3: A really popular spot for folks to look at trade down/out scenarios with perhaps an opportunity for Morey to bail himself out of the mess of PG13's contract. Have seen a lot of chatter how if Philly can trade down into a Queen/Maluach range and offload PG13, it would put them in the best position them to transition to a next era, even if they are stuck with another 4 years of Embiid, who likely needs to be managed like Kawhi going forward. If they stay put at #3... the only realistic options are Ace/VJ/Tre. They appear to be pretty set in the backcourt with Maxey, McCain, Grimes and Justin Edwards, who emerged as a nice find last year.
- Prediction: Trade Down, or Ace Bailey
Charlotte @ #4: One of the worst run franchises in the league, but one with some decent talent and the board at their spot actually fits quite perfectly with their current team make up. Their choice of VJ or Tre fits nicely with Melo, Miller, Bridges, a theoretical Saluan, and a theoretical healthy Mark Williams (who they tried to trade away). There is a good argument to made that they should try to trade away Melo, but I'm going to operate under the assumption they're going to build on what they have. I think there is a case to be made that they could use a C, but it's a reach for any of them this high. In my opinion, they should prioritize VJ's defensive potential over Tre Johnson's offensive game (which overlaps with Millers, IMO).
- Prediction: VJ Edgecombe
Utah @ #5: No glory for tankers this year, and Utah is left having to ponder another year of tanking before they can turn the corner. They have decent prospects at pretty much every position, and can just go with the BPA or highest upside option. For me, that would be whomever is left of VJ or Tre, or maybe Jaku. But I think Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik will throw a curveball and go with Kon Knueppel, unable to resist the opportunity to add a pasty white boy. I do think we'll see Utah sell off some assets this offseason (Lauri perhaps, for example, for less than what he could have gotten for him last year) to keep adding to the warchest for use when tanking finally pays off for them.
- Prediction: Kon Knueppel
Washington @ #6: Another sad tanker, and another team with some decent prospect pieces at pretty much every position and should just take BPA. If Tre Johnson is still on the board, he's going to be appealing, but I think Queen and Fears are options here. I think a Queen/Sarr pairing is about as good as you can hope for each of these guys. Sarr's can be a backstop for Queen's defensive limitations and on offense I think the two play off each other well for a nice inside-out bigman combo. If they don't go Queen, I do think Fears might have a slight advantage over Tre Johnson here (Tre has a pretty wide range here, potentially as high as 3, but now I have him slipping)
- Prediction: Derik Queen
New Orleans @ #7: Too talented a team to be as bad as they were last year, injuries really doom them. I'm a big fan of the theoretical pieces they have in the front court if they could stay healthy and/or motivated. I don't see Missi as a starting C who is going to give you 30-35 mpg long term, so Maluach could be in play, but they really need guard help with DJM injured and and CJ getting up in years and on the final year of his deal. Fears and Jaku are both good options, as is Tre Johnson - though I think facilitation is a higher priority considering they have scorers in Zion and TMIII already. I think they'll get enamored with the scoring potential of Fears and go with him, although I think there is a good case that Jaku would be the better choice.
- Prediction: Jeremiah Fears
Brooklyn @ #8: They could use everything and really just need upside. They have 4 first rounders, and I don't expect them to take them all, but what they do take I think they'll use on upside swings. The board falls great to them here and I think Tre Johnson would be a no brainer. Jaku, Queen, and Fears would all be choices here as well. I also expect them to rent out cap space - this could be a landing spot for PHI to move down into to put PG13 into the Nets capspace (but I'd expect Brooklyn to play hardball and offer their later picks instead and try to stay at 8 in addition to getting 3).
- Prediction: Tre Johnson
Toronto @ #9: A team full of a bunch of #2 options. They are quite desperate for a consolidate trade. I don't understand why they went for Brandon Ingram and then extended him, though they got him on a fairly reasonable extension. Jaku and Maluach make the most sense here, but I wonder if this pick could be used in some kind of consolidation trade for them. They have quite a bit of money tied up in Quickly, but I think he could slide over to the 2... the problem is they have some nice 2 prospects in and Walter already. Jak has 2 years left (2nd year, player option) and Maluach has been the lazy selection that everyone makes... but it's based on some pretty good reasoning. I'm nto going to be bold enough to buck the trend, other than to say I do think Jaku could be an option here.
- Prediction: Khaman Malauch
Houston @ #10: This seems a prime candidate to add into a bigger deal where Houston goes big game hunting, but if they don't, Kasparas makes too much sense here if Houston decline's FVV's option. I think any of the PFs make sense here as well to give them a little more size upfront as Jabari enters his 4th year. CMB, Fleming, Essengue, Newell could all be in play. I think they go Jaku though.
- Prediction: Kasparas Jakucionis
Portland @ #11: Another team full of young talent across all positions who should probably just take whomever the feel has the most upside. Scoot/Sharpe/Simons/Adjiva/Camara/Clingan is a decent starting place. If they move off of Simons as has seemingly been rumored for years, then maybe the add another guard like Richardson? But I think more likely they look for wing/forward depth and someone like Bryant/Essengue/CMB/Fleming/Newell. I also think this is where Coward's range begins. This is one of the tougher predictions to make because they could go so many ways.
- Prediction: Carter Bryant
Chicago @ #12: Could see them doing anything other than guard. Center is a popular pick but I'm not totally sold on that direction. They seem to like offensive centers. If Queen was still on board I could see that but I don't know that Sorber is their type and it's too early for anyone else... though they are a terrible front office so... maybe it's surprise Danny Wolfe time? Naaaaah. Are they ready to take an L on Patrick Williams? If so, then they have plenty of options at the 3/4 here to pair with Matas. I think they'd take Carter Bryant if Portland just didn't do it.
- Prediction: Noa Essengue
Atlanta @ #13: Center is just too obvious with Capela rolling off. I think they could also use someone like Jase for a bench scoring punch. Also a potential spot for Coward. Some front court beef would be good for them here as well. Newell, CMB, Fleming will definitely be in play. But in the end, I think they just go with the obvious choice
- Prediction: Thomas Sorber
For some strange reason, the thought of Ace Bailey to the Hornets had not crossed my mind. Potentially glorious outcomes.
Dal - Flagg
Sas - Harper
Phi - Ace
Cha - VJ
Uta - Tre
Was - Kon
Nola - Maluach
Bkn - Fears
Tor - Queen
Hou - Jak
Por - Bryant
Chi - CMB
Atl - Essengue
Sas - Mcneely? Egor? Nique?
There's really no size difference between Kon and McNeeley, maybe an inch or so. They're both 2/3 swings but McNeeley has no real on-ball juice and simply was not as productive or good defensively.
Kon to Utah feels so on-brand and on the nose, they couldn't possibly do it, could they? But they could. He's perfect for them in terms of fit, only the wrong year. He feels more like a finishing piece, or closer to one. I tab them for a bigger swing, but getting a guy who will be very happy to be there may be a better idea for them. Their ball-handling is unpredictable and he'll help a lot.
Fears to NOP makes a lot of sense.
Brooklyn would be ecstatic to get Tre Johnson.
Houston with Jaku feels like a great fit. Too great for us.
And I agree that Portland is hard to get a handle on. They have a lot of pieces and probably a defensive wing makes sense. Chicago is also strange. It feels like they need a center, but who knows what they do. And Atlanta could go with a defensive or beefier PF like Newell.
Sorber to the Hawks would be brutal. So close. Hopefully they prefer someone more athletic that can catch lobs and go for Asa Newell or reach for Joan Beringer. You may be right though because they also need toughness down low.
Dont want to quote Scott's entire post but I think he nailed it. My only quibbles are Jaku to Houston (doesnt seem like an Ime guy). I also think we've forgotten about Asa Newell who may be in play for Chicago and Atlanta.
If this is close to how it shakes out, my preference is for the Spurs to trade out of #14 honestly.
Curious to see how Philly views Embiid - whether they think he's truly a lost cause or whether they think they can get a few more years of productive basketball out of him.
If they think he can still play, 3 + Paul George for 21 + Markannen probably makes some sense for both sides -
Philly can role out Maxey/McCain/Lauri/Embiid, take a defensive wing like Thiero or Penda at 21, and try and stay compe ive rather than deliver a lottery pick to the Thunder in a stacked 2026 draft
Jazz tank again with Ace/Kon or Ace/Tre, try and land in the top 4 and get one of the Peterson/Boozer/Dybantsa trinity or even settle for Quaintance while trying to rehab Paul George's value and meet their salary floor obligations. Kon/Tre-Ace-Peterson/Dybantsa/Boozer isn't a bad core to start with
If Philly thinks Embiid can't play, a trade-down for Maluach or CMB probably makes some sense to try and either get an Embiid replacement or find their Draymond for their two guards
In that scenario i take McNeely or Egor (but prefer McNeely)
One possibility is OKC looking to move up - they'll have a consolidation trade to make as they have a young, loaded roster with (approximately) 2342340 future picks, so moving in 2 for 1 trades could help them - adding something to 15 to move up for Sorber as the LT Hartenstein Replacement (Big C with short roll skills) could make sense to manage cap over time, whilst not relying on rookies.
Other teams could make sense as a consolidation, or acquiring particular skills to fit.
I doubt that affects the order much until about pick number 9, as it's apparently viewed as an 8 player draft - but could change the order from Toronto down to Atlanta.
think it makes sense for teams to be trading a little at the top, as dallas would be better suited with harper, sa with flagg or bailey, philliy is in a good position, charlotte though where it is it misses out on the top 3 top level talents.
don't think it to be likely, as they are likely to get cap conscious
it's actually two inches, but I think the diffence might be more about how teams would develop the player physically.
I think, they will want Kon to slim down a bit, maybe looking at a Christian Braun type player (or even Tyler Herro) and I think they would want McNeeley to bulk up, so that he ends up like a Gordon Hayward type player.
Yet another knucklehead on knucklehead farm.
The cap crunch is why - Get someone ready to take over, take time to learn, then they have a defensive centre without paying the 30m they're paying Hartenstein - which won't be affordable forever with Jalen and Chet moving to (mini) max deals.
Queen going top 10 would be amazing, cause he's terrible. I assume he will drop though, his combine was abysmal. Furthermore the players who really drop will be PGs because most teams already have some.
My main options in order at 14 would be:
Sorber
Fleming
Coward
Bryant
I'm fine with any of these 4. I think all of them are also on OKC's radar.
ATL might be a candidate to move up with 13 + 22, because the perfect player for them would actually be Maluach as a lob threat for Trae.
Last edited by RC_Drunkford; 05-22-2025 at 07:07 AM.
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