Pick #14 - Strategies

[Ariel]

But more interested in the Essengue part. The dude is just bad, isn't he? Looking at his abilities and so on, he's just not a basketball player at a high level. He's super tall and long and is good at some of the things Saluan is bad at, but Saluan is actually a good shooter. I just don't believe in Essengue at all, he looks like he's never getting there at all.

I was about to comment something along these lines. I've read some people like Essengue, I'd like to know why. Yes, he's young and long but, though I have not done an exhaustive research on him (i.e., spent hours watching tape), what I have seen left me utterly unimpressed. He doesn't seem to have any particular skill to rely on, he's a bad shooter, mediocre defender, doesn't have a post game, doesn't have superb touch... he mostly has good effort level and awareness, and NBA size in a mediocre league, which of course will cause him to stand out. Maybe someone has watched him a lot more than I did and can help me understand the appeal, but until then this is one of the guys I find myself hoping gets picked before the Spurs are on the clock, because the thought of using 14 on him feels depressing.

[SpursBills]

I wouldn't do that, no.

But more interested in the Essengue part. The dude is just bad, isn't he? Looking at his abilities and so on, he's just not a basketball player at a high level. He's super tall and long and is good at some of the things Saluan is bad at, but Saluan is actually a good shooter. I just don't believe in Essengue at all, he looks like he's never getting there at all.

I think Essengue is raw, but not necessarily bad. I'm wary of French prospects myself because of misses with Salaun, Dieng, even Risacher I wasn't super high on. I'd saw I'm medium-high on Essengue, in that he's def worth a swing at 14 for me but I'm not going to go crazy and take him top 5 over dudes like Kon/Tre/VJ.

Here's the argument for Essengue: He moves like a wing but is the size of a forward and has the standing reach of a center. So he's toolsy for sure. On top of that, he seems like he doesn't really know what he's doing on the court a lot of the time, but he's affecting winning and putting up better numbers at a younger age than pretty much any of the raw French prospects we've seen in the past:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/co...-ousmane-dieng

For the record on the missing data, Essengue's PER so far this year is 18 and his ORTG/DRTG is 126/108. I'd say German league is a step down from French LNB, but it's not a stretch to say he may be similar to or better than Risacher at...virtually everything aside from making set 3s while being younger.

I'm looking specifically at AST:TO suggesting non-broken instincts, his ability to get to the line suggesting physicality/aggression, and his STL/BLK% again looking at instincts.
With regards to his shooting, he's actually a better FT shooter than Risacher and only slightly worse than Salaun while being younger than all of them.

Obviously, the younger a guy is, the more projection is required. But if he's doing this against high level compe ion purely on motor and tools, and he's got non-broken instincts, it's a reasonable projection that he can turn into a useful basketball player. This may be controversial, but I like him much more than, say, Demin who is similar sized and is a more aesthetically pleasing game but sorely lacks in physicality, athleticism, and has similarly poor shooting numbers.

[jesterbobman]

I think the upside for Essengue is something in the realm of ty Kirilenko (I'm saying ty, because by a bunch of metrics AK47 got up to a fringe top 5 / top 10 player in the league - that'd be a miracle) - he's got some ball movement chops / connective chops, he's really productive (rim pressure numbers are great), and offering second side rim protection is really valuable. I get a bit of questions on overlap with Sochan as non shooting PFs, and he's too thin at the moment, but it's a valid upside bet based on both tools and production.

I get concerns about the shooting (and general half court creation), but if the shot was good he'd be closer to top 5 than top 15.

While I'd like him at 14, I don't think it's mad not to - it's an upside swing, and you could prefer more certain complete players.

[Limguogolo]

Don't necessarily trust the stats. Essengue plays in a minor league on a team known for giving a lot of playing time and responsibility to young players. The French league is more compe ive, young players are rarely in the starting five and no mistakes are allowed (Traoré found himself, for example, in a position generally occupied by Americans; less efficient, the coach looks for other solutions and this has an impact on his stats).


Concerning Essengue, for me, he is a type of player like Sarr, not like Salaün. He's a big guy who can grab a rebound and run with the ball. Salaün will rarely do that.

[mo7888]

I think Essengue is raw, but not necessarily bad. I'm wary of French prospects myself because of misses with Salaun, Dieng, even Risacher I wasn't super high on. I'd saw I'm medium-high on Essengue, in that he's def worth a swing at 14 for me but I'm not going to go crazy and take him top 5 over dudes like Kon/Tre/VJ.

Here's the argument for Essengue: He moves like a wing but is the size of a forward and has the standing reach of a center. So he's toolsy for sure. On top of that, he seems like he doesn't really know what he's doing on the court a lot of the time, but he's affecting winning and putting up better numbers at a younger age than pretty much any of the raw French prospects we've seen in the past:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/co...-ousmane-dieng

For the record on the missing data, Essengue's PER so far this year is 18 and his ORTG/DRTG is 126/108. I'd say German league is a step down from French LNB, but it's not a stretch to say he may be similar to or better than Risacher at...virtually everything aside from making set 3s while being younger.

I'm looking specifically at AST:TO suggesting non-broken instincts, his ability to get to the line suggesting physicality/aggression, and his STL/BLK% again looking at instincts.
With regards to his shooting, he's actually a better FT shooter than Risacher and only slightly worse than Salaun while being younger than all of them.

Obviously, the younger a guy is, the more projection is required. But if he's doing this against high level compe ion purely on motor and tools, and he's got non-broken instincts, it's a reasonable projection that he can turn into a useful basketball player. This may be controversial, but I like him much more than, say, Demin who is similar sized and is a more aesthetically pleasing game but sorely lacks in physicality, athleticism, and has similarly poor shooting numbers.

That's pretty much the way I see it. I also worry about his frame and ability to fill out if he's ultimately going to guard 4's in the future.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Think Essengue is too reminiscent of Siakam for Toronto to pass on him at 9.

If he falls to 14 he's intriguing, the intersection of size, youth and production is promising.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Essengue, like Carter Bryant, may have good potential. But both are raw and will take 2 to 3 years to develop.

But Spurs are suddenly in a win-now mode. Will likely pick a high floor guy or trade #14 for a veteran.

The sudden arrival of Castle, Fox and Harper has changed things quickly.

[Tyrone Jenkins]

Essengue, like Carter Bryant, may have good potential. But both are raw and will take 2 to 3 years to develop.

But Spurs are suddenly in a win-now mode. Will likely pick a high floor guy or trade #14 for a veteran.

The sudden arrival of Castle, Fox and Harper has changed things quickly.

If Asa Newell is there - it's a no brainer for me. He's 6'10", a stretch 4 who can defend 2-5, rebound, run the floor and plays above the rim. Some time in the gym and with a shooting coach and he's quickly a Marcus Morris or Jeff Green.

[rascal]

Think Essengue is too reminiscent of Siakam for Toronto to pass on him at 9.

If he falls to 14 he's intriguing, the intersection of size, youth and production is promising.

Siakam is smoother and not a weak.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Siakam is smoother and not a weak.

Really? Siakam at 18 years old was smooth and not weak?

[buttsR4rebounding]

Why does Charlotte do that? And why would the Spurs? They’ve already ed us on one pick.

They actually ed Atlanta. We just took their sloppy seconds...

[buttsR4rebounding]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

The chart really seems to indicate that there could be huge value in trading back from 2-3 into the 4-10 range and picking up additional assets. So if the Spurs rate anyone close to Harper that would definitely have to be a consideration.

[Mr. Body]

I think Essengue is raw, but not necessarily bad. I'm wary of French prospects myself because of misses with Salaun, Dieng, even Risacher I wasn't super high on. I'd saw I'm medium-high on Essengue, in that he's def worth a swing at 14 for me but I'm not going to go crazy and take him top 5 over dudes like Kon/Tre/VJ.

Here's the argument for Essengue: He moves like a wing but is the size of a forward and has the standing reach of a center. So he's toolsy for sure. On top of that, he seems like he doesn't really know what he's doing on the court a lot of the time, but he's affecting winning and putting up better numbers at a younger age than pretty much any of the raw French prospects we've seen in the past:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/co...-ousmane-dieng

For the record on the missing data, Essengue's PER so far this year is 18 and his ORTG/DRTG is 126/108. I'd say German league is a step down from French LNB, but it's not a stretch to say he may be similar to or better than Risacher at...virtually everything aside from making set 3s while being younger.

I'm looking specifically at AST:TO suggesting non-broken instincts, his ability to get to the line suggesting physicality/aggression, and his STL/BLK% again looking at instincts.
With regards to his shooting, he's actually a better FT shooter than Risacher and only slightly worse than Salaun while being younger than all of them.

Obviously, the younger a guy is, the more projection is required. But if he's doing this against high level compe ion purely on motor and tools, and he's got non-broken instincts, it's a reasonable projection that he can turn into a useful basketball player. This may be controversial, but I like him much more than, say, Demin who is similar sized and is a more aesthetically pleasing game but sorely lacks in physicality, athleticism, and has similarly poor shooting numbers.

Those are my comps for Essengue, too -- Dieng and Saluan especially. Saluan is more of a beefier potential 4, but he's bad at basketball, and that's what I mostly see from Essengue (if not nearly as bad, but Tidjane can actually shoot). Dieng is Essengue almost exactly to me. The sort where you say, "If he learns how to shoot, pass the ball, dribble, and play defense, he'll be incredible!" The kind of player OKC whiffed on with Pokushevski and Dieng both. These guys never turn out.

Risacher is a different issue. He had a better rookie campaign than I thought he would, but he doesn't cap out much more than where he is now, for me. A 3 and D wing is great, however, if not at #1, but in the #8-14 range where Essengue can go. But then... Essengue can't shoot. At all. And the rest of his game really is more Dieng. If I can get something like Risacher at our later pick, I'd be very happy, but that's not who this is, I fear.

[SpursBills]

Those are my comps for Essengue, too -- Dieng and Saluan especially. Saluan is more of a beefier potential 4, but he's bad at basketball, and that's what I mostly see from Essengue (if not nearly as bad, but Tidjane can actually shoot). Dieng is Essengue almost exactly to me. The sort where you say, "If he learns how to shoot, pass the ball, dribble, and play defense, he'll be incredible!" The kind of player OKC whiffed on with Pokushevski and Dieng both. These guys never turn out.

Risacher is a different issue. He had a better rookie campaign than I thought he would, but he doesn't cap out much more than where he is now, for me. A 3 and D wing is great, however, if not at #1, but in the #8-14 range where Essengue can go. But then... Essengue can't shoot. At all. And the rest of his game really is more Dieng. If I can get something like Risacher at our later pick, I'd be very happy, but that's not who this is, I fear.

You may be right - in general, very young and toolsy guys who happen to produce against good compe ion are generally a blind spot for me (see: Topic, Nikola back when I thought he had a 7 foot wingspan and Adriatic league was decent). I was extremely low on both Salaun and Dieng, Salaun because he seemed to have very poor feel in addition to having all-time low skill, and Dieng because he really didn't produce in an inferior league (NBL may be more physical but is certainly less physical than German league I believe). 0.7 AST:TO and really poor feel on film for the both of them, with neither being much of a defensive playmaker meant that their early opportunities for minutes and development were highly leveraged to their shot. I would say that comparatively speaking, Noa is a higher feel prospect, is more of a defensive playmaker, and the fact that he excels so much in transition gives him an early pathway to minutes and development on a team with Fox and Harper (highest combination of transition frequency and FT rate among prospects this year by far). The Poku concern is legitimate one, but I think that Noa has a much better frame capable of adding more strength compared to Poku, who also had his development severely stunted by sustaining a tibial plateau fracture.

So basically, I hear your concerns, they're absolutely legitimate. I think Noa is probably an exception to the raw toolsy international wing that I'd be willing to take a swing on though, in spite of those concerns. It's probably a moot point because I don't think he's making it past Toronto, and who knows, if he ends up busting I'll recalibrate how I view these prospects again.

[CGD]

Assuming Bryant is off the board, anyone else here think the Spurs will have a hard time passing on Demin if he’s there at 14?

I really do.

[scottspurs]

I don’t know what the Spurs will do but if they can get one of

Thomas Sorber (rebounding, rim protection, defense, toughness)
Cedric Coward (defense, good rebounder for a wing, shooting)
Nique Clifford (all around ready made defender, shooter, elite rebounder for a wing)
Noa Essengue (crazy potential but can also help now)

I would be super happy with 1 those 4. Probably in that order. If they are off the board I’m going best rebounder or shooter available even if it’s a reach. No more on ball players unless the Spurs are extremely high on them.

For example if they had Egor Demin as their 4th best player in the draft. You already drafted Harper at 2. You still have to go with the top 5 talent. If Egor is your 12th best player though and let’s say they are high on Asa Newell but he is 16th on their board. Have to go with big.

BPA has its place but so does fit and need.

[Mr. Body]

Assuming Bryant is off the board, anyone else here think the Spurs will have a hard time passing on Demin if he’s there at 14?

I really do.

I think they take Demin before Bryant, yeah.

[BackHome]

If they take Demin then I think a trade is definitely going to happen

[mo7888]

Assuming Bryant is off the board, anyone else here think the Spurs will have a hard time passing on Demin if he’s there at 14?

I really do.

I think they might even value Demin over Bryant...

[scott]

You may be right - in general, very young and toolsy guys who happen to produce against good compe ion are generally a blind spot for me (see: Topic, Nikola back when I thought he had a 7 foot wingspan and Adriatic league was decent). I was extremely low on both Salaun and Dieng, Salaun because he seemed to have very poor feel in addition to having all-time low skill, and Dieng because he really didn't produce in an inferior league (NBL may be more physical but is certainly less physical than German league I believe). 0.7 AST:TO and really poor feel on film for the both of them, with neither being much of a defensive playmaker meant that their early opportunities for minutes and development were highly leveraged to their shot. I would say that comparatively speaking, Noa is a higher feel prospect, is more of a defensive playmaker, and the fact that he excels so much in transition gives him an early pathway to minutes and development on a team with Fox and Harper (highest combination of transition frequency and FT rate among prospects this year by far). The Poku concern is legitimate one, but I think that Noa has a much better frame capable of adding more strength compared to Poku, who also had his development severely stunted by sustaining a tibial plateau fracture.

So basically, I hear your concerns, they're absolutely legitimate. I think Noa is probably an exception to the raw toolsy international wing that I'd be willing to take a swing on though, in spite of those concerns. It's probably a moot point because I don't think he's making it past Toronto, and who knows, if he ends up busting I'll recalibrate how I view these prospects again.

Seems to my amateur POV that Essengue (and those like him: Saluan, Dieng, etc... honestly Bilal probably belongs in this list as well. ) are the kind of guy who is eventually going to hit and make one team look super smart, while everyone is just left with a replacement level player (or perhaps even worse). In many respects... isn't that the same of the Thompsons/Dyson Daniels and the GLI/OTE machine (though there have been a few decent players to emerge from there at least... Jalen Green, Kuminga, Scoot and now Buzelis may not be everyone's cup of tea... but they do at least look like legit NBA players)?

Picking these raw, athletic French dudes (I don't include Wemby, Sarr or Risacher in this category) is going to hit big for someone eventually, feeding the pipeline for more of them for years to come.

[scott]

I think they might even value Demin over Bryant...

What's the theoretical case for Demin to the Spurs after we draft Harper? That he fills out his body, develops as a shooter (here we go again...) and becomes a playmaking 4? Do we think he frame is capable of bulking up?

I'd have a natural interest in Demin in a case where we were still looking for a PG or even where we haven't drafted Harper, but he just starts to seem a little redundant?

The passing and vision is impressive on tape... I'm not trying to be a naysayer here... I'm genuinely curious at what the on-the-court theoretical case is here.

[Dejounte]

What's the theoretical case for Demin to the Spurs after we draft Harper? That he fills out his body, develops as a shooter (here we go again...) and becomes a playmaking 4? Do we think he frame is capable of bulking up?

I'd have a natural interest in Demin in a case where we were still looking for a PG or even where we haven't drafted Harper, but he just starts to seem a little redundant?

The passing and vision is impressive on tape... I'm not trying to be a naysayer here... I'm genuinely curious at what the on-the-court theoretical case is here.

I think the theoretical case for Demin after drafting Harper is less about him being a floor spacer and more about the dynamic versatility he adds to the offense. Even if the shot doesn’t come around immediately, the fact that he’s a capable ballhandler and decision-maker forces defenses to stay honest. They can’t just sag off and load up on Harper or the primary creator because Demin can initiate, drive, or make the skip pass if the defense rotates too early.

That kind of secondary or even tertiary playmaking opens up the floor in ways that aren’t always about shooting. The Spurs could become really fluid and unpredictable on offense— using guys like Demin, Harper, and even Vassell or Keldon in a switchable, motion-heavy system where roles aren’t rigid and anyone can bring the ball up or attack a mismatch.

He may not project as a traditional 4 yet, but the appeal is that he adds to the connective tissue of the offense. The more guys you have who can pass, dribble, and think the game, the more dangerous you become— especially in a system that thrives on reads and pace.

[RC_Drunkford]

I think that‘s what the whole „positionless basketball“ mantra the Spurs have been rolling with in the past years is about. They are looking for players who can play on the ball. I wouldn’t mind to add some offball players who can shoot.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I think that‘s what the whole „positionless basketball“ mantra the Spurs have been rolling with in the past years is about. They are looking for players who can play on the ball. I wouldn’t mind to add some offball players who can shoot.

Yes. The beautiful game only works if we have shooters.

Otherwise, our opponents will just pack the paint and let us pass the ball around the perimeter like clowns.

[mo7888]

What's the theoretical case for Demin to the Spurs after we draft Harper? That he fills out his body, develops as a shooter (here we go again...) and becomes a playmaking 4? Do we think he frame is capable of bulking up?

I'd have a natural interest in Demin in a case where we were still looking for a PG or even where we haven't drafted Harper, but he just starts to seem a little redundant?

The passing and vision is impressive on tape... I'm not trying to be a naysayer here... I'm genuinely curious at what the on-the-court theoretical case is here.

I think how they view his shooting is part of it, but if they took Demin and Harper I think they'd be looking at it as a more long-term play and not just how it fits in the current rotation. If they're looking down the line and Castle and Harper turn into max type guys they aren't going to keep both alongside Wemby. Demin + whatever they get from moving Castle or Harper may be what they're looking at. They could also see him as a replacement if one of those two other don't work out or busts. Realistically the odds of both Castle and Harper reaching the heights dreamt of here in rascal's wettest dream is very low.