Pick #14 - Strategies

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I think how they view his shooting is part of it, but if they took Demin and Harper I think they'd be looking at it as a more long-term play and not just how it fits in the current rotation. If they're looking down the line and Castle and Harper turn into max type guys they aren't going to keep both alongside Wemby. Demin + whatever they get from moving Castle or Harper may be what they're looking at. They could also see him as a replacement if one of those two other don't work out or busts. Realistically the odds of both Castle and Harper reaching the heights dreamt of here in rascal's wettest dream is very low.

You're thinking way too far ahead. Even the FO doesn't think this far.

We need to think about how to start winning championships within two years.

That's why Demin won't be drafted.

[jjspur]

I don’t know what the Spurs will do but if they can get one of

Thomas Sorber (rebounding, rim protection, defense, toughness)
Cedric Coward (defense, good rebounder for a wing, shooting)
Nique Clifford (all around ready made defender, shooter, elite rebounder for a wing)
Noa Essengue (crazy potential but can also help now)

I would be super happy with 1 those 4. Probably in that order. If they are off the board I’m going best rebounder or shooter available even if it’s a reach. No more on ball players unless the Spurs are extremely high on them.

For example if they had Egor Demin as their 4th best player in the draft. You already drafted Harper at 2. You still have to go with the top 5 talent. If Egor is your 12th best player though and let’s say they are high on Asa Newell but he is 16th on their board. Have to go with big.

BPA has its place but so does fit and need.

I like the list but I would have it slightly different
#1 Sorber - fills an immediate need on day 1. A better option than Bassey or Biyombo as a backup
#2 Ciifford - has a lot of ready overall skills, just what we need on the second team
#3 Coward - passes the eye test, but I'm not sure all his skills translate. At least he can shoot and this team needs shooting. He's rising in the draft -but probably still a reach at 14.
#4 Essengue - this years Saluaun. He might have some skills but you probably won't see them immediately. He's not skilled enough to take at 14 when we have needs now. If he's selected, he's probably getting traded for future assets.

[mo7888]

You're thinking way too far ahead. Even the FO doesn't think this far.

We need to think about how to start winning championships within two years.

That's why Demin won't be drafted.

It's not that far ahead and I would also argue that anybody we draft at 14, Demin or otherwise, is going to have a negligible effect on a "win-now" agenda. That will come from free agents and trades.

[Mr. Body]

You're thinking way too far ahead. Even the FO doesn't think this far.

We need to think about how to start winning championships within two years.

That's why Demin won't be drafted.

Nobody drafted at 9 is going to affect a championship window, and winning one in two years is crazy anywayl

[Manu&Duncan fan]

It's not that far ahead and I would also argue that anybody wr draft at 14, Demin or otherwise, is going to have a negligible effect on a "win-now" agenda. That will come from free agents and trades.

That's why there is a high chance that #14 pick will be traded for a veteran plus future picks.
.
Unless they see someone like Fleming or Maxie can contribute immediately

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Nobody drafted at 9 is going to affect a championship window, and winning one in two years is crazy anywayl

Look at Indiana and Thunders.

Our core is much better than theirs.

We will be ready to compete after adding a couple of veteran bigs.

[CGD]

What's the theoretical case for Demin to the Spurs after we draft Harper? That he fills out his body, develops as a shooter (here we go again...) and becomes a playmaking 4? Do we think he frame is capable of bulking up?

I'd have a natural interest in Demin in a case where we were still looking for a PG or even where we haven't drafted Harper, but he just starts to seem a little redundant?

The passing and vision is impressive on tape... I'm not trying to be a naysayer here... I'm genuinely curious at what the on-the-court theoretical case is here.

First, I just think they love these guys (feel, playmaking, size, fundamental), so I think it’s a talent bet they willing to be patient with.

But, yes, I think the theoretical case for this guy is as you suggest at the 4. This team has also been in search of secondary playmaking for years, especially with Devin failing to add that to his game.

[CGD]

You're thinking way too far ahead. Even the FO doesn't think this far.

We need to think about how to start winning championships within two years.

That's why Demin won't be drafted.

Why do you think a rookie drafted at 14 is going to be the missing piece? lol.

No, if you think the timeline is 2 years, they’ll need to add the requisite talent via free agency/trade.

[Ocotillo]

I clicked on some click bait story that said we may be trading the #2 pick. The gist of the story was Brooklyn wants to move up to the top 3 and barring that, they want another lottery pick. I don't know how appealing #14 is to them but some of us have suggested sending 14 and 38 in exchange for a couple of their picks in the 20s. Who knows, could happen.

[CGD]

I think they might even value Demin over Bryant...

I kinda think so too. I don’t know much about Bryant, but if they see him as an archetypical 3/D with limited growth potential they might just try to fill that need out side the draft. They may prefer to take the upside swing at 14, and that feels like a Demin or Essengue to me.

[mo7888]

I kinda think so too. I don’t know much about Bryant, but if they see him as an archetypical 3/D with limited growth potential they might just try to fill that need out side the draft. They may prefer to take the upside swing at 14, and that feels like a Demin or Essengue to me.

Those two are definitely upside swings for a #14 pick.

[John B]

Look at Indiana and Thunders.

Our core is much better than theirs.

We will be ready to compete after adding a couple of veteran bigs.

Wow I want whatever you’re smoking. Maybe Indiana, but OKC is 15 players deep. The Spurs are maybe 7 players deep and I already counted Barnes twice for his age.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Wow I want whatever you’re smoking. Maybe Indiana, but OKC is 15 players deep. The Spurs are maybe 7 players deep and I already counted Barnes twice for his age.

Add John Collins and Lopez, we are suddenly a 9-player deep rotation. Draft Fleming or Raynound. Now 10-player deep.

Don't forget we have an alien.

Wenby + Castle, Fox, harper = The best Core in the league by a big margin.

We're much closer to a contender than you think.

[Jordan Jackson]

Look at Indiana and Thunders.

Our core is much better than theirs.

We will be ready to compete after adding a couple of veteran bigs.

No, the Spurs do not have a better core than OKC.

OKC has more net positive players and can go 13 maybe 14 deep. Spurs got like 4 players currently - 5 if Harper is drafted and pans out. Spurs don’t even have a credible starting 5.

As great as Wemby will be, he can’t do it by himself. Spurs would get dog walked by that OKC team. Spurs definitely need 3 or 4 more solid rotation players. Draft or trade - they got to come away with something at 14.

[John B]

No, the Spurs do not have a better core than OKC.

OKC has more net positive players and can go 13 maybe 14 deep. Spurs got like 4 players currently - 5 if Harper is drafted and pans out. Spurs don’t even have a credible starting 5.

As great as Wemby will be, he can’t do it by himself. Spurs would get dog walked by that OKC team. Spurs definitely need 3 or 4 more solid rotation players. Draft or trade - they got to come away with something at 14.

OKC core is better right now. SGA is the MVP of the league. But I have no doubt the Spurs will catch up. Castle and Harper will be All-Star. I doubt Dort and Hartenstein would ever be.

[Uriel]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

That’s a pretty graph. Did you make that? Also, why VORP (instead of say, PER or WAR or RPM or anything else)?

[RC_Drunkford]

I clicked on some click bait story that said we may be trading the #2 pick. The gist of the story was Brooklyn wants to move up to the top 3 and barring that, they want another lottery pick. I don't know how appealing #14 is to them but some of us have suggested sending 14 and 38 in exchange for a couple of their picks in the 20s. Who knows, could happen.

Let Brooklyn trade with Philly and they got their top 3 pick, we'lll draft Harper no matter what.

No, the Spurs do not have a better core than OKC.

OKC has more net positive players and can go 13 maybe 14 deep. Spurs got like 4 players currently - 5 if Harper is drafted and pans out. Spurs don’t even have a credible starting 5.

As great as Wemby will be, he can’t do it by himself. Spurs would get dog walked by that OKC team. Spurs definitely need 3 or 4 more solid rotation players. Draft or trade - they got to come away with something at 14.

yeah we're definitely still playing catch up. If we can get a solid rotation player with #14, trade for a starting PF and sign a back up C in free agency then the team should look much better. By 26/27 season is when Brian Wright should put the finishing touches on the roster to contend.

[buttsR4rebounding]

The more I look at the board the more I am liking Cedric Coward. I think he could be a long-term solution at the 3. Eventually a line-up of Harper, Castle, Coward, Wemby and PF TBD could be a real defensive jaugernaut. Combine that with a potential 40% 3-pt shooting and he could be the perfect replacement for Vassel.

[Bruno]

The more I look at the board the more I am liking Cedric Coward. I think he could be a long-term solution at the 3. Eventually a line-up of Harper, Castle, Coward, Wemby and PF TBD could be a real defensive jaugernaut. Combine that with a potential 40% 3-pt shooting and he could be the perfect replacement for Vassel.

Sam Vecenie made a mock draft a couple of weeks ago with Spurs taking Coward at #14. I know very little about him, so I can't judge, but Coward at #14 doesn't seem to be crazy for some good journalists following the draft.

Another interesting thing about his mock draft was that he has Fears slipping to #16. If Fears is available at #14, Spurs could get a good offer for their pick.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

OKC core is better right now. SGA is the MVP of the league. But I have no doubt the Spurs will catch up. Castle and Harper will be All-Star. I doubt Dort and Hartenstein would ever be.

Yes. I meant we can catch and pass OKC in 2 years.

[Vienna]

The more I look at the board the more I am liking Cedric Coward. I think he could be a long-term solution at the 3. Eventually a line-up of Harper, Castle, Coward, Wemby and PF TBD could be a real defensive jaugernaut. Combine that with a potential 40% 3-pt shooting and he could be the perfect replacement for Vassel.

he is one of my three options for #14. (along with Bryant and McNeeley).
I'm not sure if he is my #1 or #2, but I'm leaning to pick him.
I'm thinking about Iguodala in his days with the Warriors and the role he played on that team.
this would be my best case for Coward.
and certainly this would be a great outcome for a #14 pick.

[ginobilized]

The really good news is that there will very likely be some strong prospects at pick 14.The more I look at it, the better it gets.

Sorber, Clifford, Coward, Fleming, Newell, Essengue, McNeeley, Richardson, Raynaud and maybe Demin or even the much vaunted Kon if things get wacky. A few would be longer term projects and a few might carve out a role early on. I'd be happy with any of this crew.

I can see strong arguments for any of that group.Finding the right fit/talent will be the Spurs FO job and their pick will reveal so much about the future direction.

As far as building a winning core, we are on the right track, no doubt. Winning, however, is a learned skill. Unfortunately, losing is the best teacher, especially in high-stakes games. As I look at our roster, I'm dumbfounded by how much our Bball IQ and talent are increasing. Fox/Castle raised the bar considerably and Harper will be another high talent/IQ player. Looking at the team from Wemby's rookie year, this is such a marked contrast. Adding some wily vets like Adams, Kornet or PJ Washington would round out this team and make us playoff bound. I can see KJ still fitting in as a bench player with a team like this. Vassell is the odd man out here. As if I even needed to type those words.

[scott]

That’s a pretty graph. Did you make that? Also, why VORP (instead of say, PER or WAR or RPM or anything else)?

This is not my chart. This comes from Saraubh Rane back in 2016. In the article he goes into detail why he chose VORP: https://fansided.com/2016/06/17/free...the-nba-draft/

I found this part especially compelling and a good reminder of how some stats can mislead:

While far from a perfect measure, I felt VORP did a better job of ascertaining player for value for this purpose than Win-Shares (WS) or Player Efficiency Rating (PER). WS does a good job of identifying the top players, but fails in accurately capturing the value of average players, particular average players on good teams.[2. Harrison Barnes, a generally accepted league average to above-average player, has an equivalent WS to Dwayne Wade (4.9) because 73 is a lot more wins to share than 48.] Since PER normalizes stats to minutes played tends to overrate players that play lower minutes, but take lots of shots.[3. Michael Beasley finished 14th with a PER of 22.5 last year; ahead of All-Star PFs such as Draymond Green, LaMarcus Aldirdge and Paul Millsap.]

This is actually an area that has been pretty heavily studied and researched over the years. In 2018, Tony ElHabr put together this GitHub page, where he did an amazing and thorough job compiling all of the various research on the topic, combining it with his own research to come up with his own thought on the Value of NBA Draft Picks. He gets pretty detailed and nerdy, and I love this stuff. If you do too, I highly recommend: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-dec...sis/index.html

Lastly, I chose the chart above out of the many included in Tony's research because I find it the easiest for folks to understand without getting into the weeds of these various studies. It plots out every single draft pick and it lays out for the viewer some clear, easy to understand conclusions you can draw.

[The Truth #6]

he is one of my three options for #14. (along with Bryant and McNeeley).
I'm not sure if he is my #1 or #2, but I'm leaning to pick him.
I'm thinking about Iguodala in his days with the Warriors and the role he played on that team.
this would be my best case for Coward.
and certainly this would be a great outcome for a #14 pick.

That's a good list. I like Coward from what I know. To me. he seems like a classic Wright type player, except for the age.

And speaking of his age, I'm personally less concerned about that as a role player, but I'm getting up to speed if he's typically injured or not.

But in general, those 3 seem like solid candidates at a position of need.

[BackHome]

My two favorite players both had serious injury Sobber and Coward - Coward had a serious shoulder which dealt with a torn labrum and some bone that needed to be shaved. Another NBA player who had a similar surgery was Ja Morant so that can give you an idea of outcome. As all outcomes it depends if they addressed injury quick enough and what surgeon did the surgery.

One thing I believe is that even when fully healed the chances of it happening again are possible from mid to high depending on damage.