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You made my point.
If Wright thinks Harper is as good as advertised, there's no way he's getting traded because he'd be the perfect point guard to pair with Wemby.
Spurs won't trade Fox because that's not what they do and they'll rather go through a few years of an uncomfortable fit, but you can't trade the player with the highest potential ceiling if you think he'll get there.
Castle is a bad fit shooting wise, but considering what he's shown us this season, I don't think Spurs see him as a detriment to Harper's development, it's just that Fox/Harper/Castle can't all play together, at least not yet and that Jeremy kind of becomes a negative if he can't fix his shot.
You made my point.
Dylan Harper has been going through the pre-draft process and has already worked out for multiple teams, not limiting the possibility to the Spurs being his only landing spot. “The pre-draft process for me has been going great,” Harper told Hoops HQ. “I’ve had a few workouts and I’m just getting my body in shape and making sure I’m just sharper for the next level because everyone is so good and I’m just trying to get in that right mindset and right conditioning so I’m ready.”Another buzzy name tied to the Spurs is Maluach, a 7-foot-2 center out of Duke. The Spurs could essentially be building twin towers with Wembanyama and Maluach and there is an appeal to drafting another young big that can learn and grow alongside Wembanyama. It would be very unlikely that the Spurs would shock everyone and take Maluach with the No. 2 pick but they could be looking to trade down or package the No. 14 pick for a shot at the talented center.
Woj, Stein, David Aldridge and a bunch of other reporters follow him, so I'd assume he has some credibility.
Where is this information coming from? It sounds like the Spurs would have strongly considered Clingan had he made it to 8 last season so kind of checks out.
It's hard to see a reasonable trade for Harper other than as the centerpiece of a move for Giannis if he tells the Bucks he wants out. The trade down options don't really make any sense because Edgecombe and Tre Johnson are pretty poor fits and Ace Bailey shows monster bust potential and also isn't the fit we thought he'd be a month ago when he was thought to be 6'10". Fears is a much worse fit than Harper so scratch him too. When it comes to forwards outside Ace you're talking Essengue, Bryant, Newell, Queen, just an enormous step down in talent from Harper if you're chasing fit (not even considering CMB with his Sochan esque shooting). And they're guys who might still be there at 14 anyways. In the second apron era a guy who looks to be the next Cade Cunningham or James Harden on a cost controlled rookie contract is tremendously valuable and only second in value to an established superstar in his prime. In the NBA you usually win the trade when you get the best player so it's hard to see a deal that makes sense for just adding depth to the Spurs. I think the Spurs have to go into this with the idea that Harper will be groomed to be the team's PG and then whoever of Fox or Castle doesn't fit is who you trade in 3 years.
I don't think I'd trade Harper for Giannis mostly because it locks the Spurs into paying three high max contracts two years from now but I wouldn't be mad or anything if it happened since Giannis is a monster. But anything short of Giannis would be crazy unless there is some other top 5 player available (I guess always a possibility seeing the way Luka got moved).
https://www.hoopshq.com/nba-draft/nba-draft-intel-latestI had an interesting conversation recently with the father of a projected lottery pick who told me the Bucks have been doing background work on his son—even though they don’t pick until 47. The father explained: Milwaukee doesn’t have a pick in the first round, not even in the top 10. But they’re asking about my son and wanting to know a little bit more information. They’ve called, and I don’t understand why they have interest unless they plan on making a move.
I just don't think there are any good trade scenarios that are realistic. Would I trade Harper and filler straight up for Giannis? Yes, in a heartbeat. Would I trade a lot of draft capital including harper and the salary filler needed for Giannis? That starts to get harder to swallow because then I don't know what the Spurs have. I think the Giannis Wemby pairing for 4-5 years would be insanely dominant and I am not opposed to the Spurs pursuing it, but I have no idea to calculate a good trade in that realm. There are not many other players that are REALISTIC gets that I would want to trade Harper for so it just seems llike a dead end discussion topic. There are plenty of players I'd like to have over Harper, but I don't think many of them are going to be available.It makes discussing these things tough, because the two options for most people are they have unreasonable expectations... or they get their panties in a wad and start name calling
Yeah exactly this. There's just no other scenario that is realistic that even makes a bit of sense, IMO. Like yeahm, I'd hapily move Harper for Anthony Edwards but lol?
Oh damn Krysten Peek is definitely someone that is plugged in and would hear things. A 3 guard lineup with Maluach and Wemby would be hilarious. It would either be genius or fail miserably. They could also just stay at 14 and take Raynaud if they want that sort of lineup. Spurs trading up is definitely not being discussed enough compared to trading back.
If trading back I would want to target a team that will be bad next season. If trading up you will be looking at teams that may not be sure of what to do with their picks. Hornets, Pelicans, Rockets and Blazers could all fit that criteria.
You've locked yourself into a very specific mindset... one the Spurs may or may not share. This is what I'm talking about with the mental block Spurs fans have self imposed. You can't see these scenarios, because you've bought fully into a certain mindset where you believe certain things about Harper and other prospects. You have to put your own evaluation aside and ask yourself if the Spurs come to a different evaluation, what moves might look appealing to them? There are also a number of other trade options that live somewhere between trading down and trading for Giannis. They don't look appealing if you are fully bought into the idea that Harper is the next Cade or Harden on a cost controlled rookie contract... but again, you have to put that aside for a moment, because the Spurs may not view it that way.
Ultimately, I am very high on Harper and hope we take him. The only scenario I'd really want instead is some dream scenario where we land Flagg. But I also understand that is based on my opinion of Harper, which the Spurs may not share. So tell yourself... you don't like Harper. You think he's an overrated prospect... not even that he'll be a bust, but that he's not really a tier above Ace, VJ, Tre, etc. In that scenario, what are some trade realistic trade scenarios that now look appealing with that in mind?
An example... I've thrown out #2, Vassell and Keldon for #7, TMIII and Herb. Spurs fans immediately say no. But do you know who also says no to that? Pelicans fans, because that's actually a pretty huge haul. It looks unappealing when you hold Harper in the light of a surefire All NBA PG... but if you don't believe that, then that package actually looks really damn good. Since I believe in Harper, I wouldn't want to do that deal... but if I were the Spurs GM and everyone in the organization was telling me they don't evaluate Harper that high... then that deal starts to look pretty good.
This is my point - Spurs fans (and honestly fans of all teams) can't see behind their own personal evaluations of guys. But our evaluations don't matter, because we don't get a vote. So... if the team wasn't as high as "consensus" on Harper... what trade would make you happy? Alternatively... if the team decided that Fox/Harper/Castle absolutely cannot work and we'd be better off moving one of Castle or Harper... what would you do?
They are all just hypotheticals.
See my previously reply to BB.
I’ll be pretty pissed if we trade Harper for anything besides a current all-star caliber player tbh. Unless we get some crazy haul like a top 10 pick this year + multiple unprotected FRPs from a team that we feel good about being ty for years to come.
Still think this is all mostly smokescreens.
I just don’t think Giannis is the play, we do that we’re going all in with a new young coach and cashing in a big part of our assets, that’s not very spursy
Personally I'd hate to just trade back to collect more picks. That's like cashing in your jackpot winning lottery ticket and using all the money to buy more lottery tickets. Just degenerate gambling addict mentality. I think the trade would definitely have to return a young-ish player approximating the 85% outcome of Harper's expectations (which obviously varies for everyone). Basically... you lock in a high end outcome. You give up a little bit of the upside but you eliminate all of the downside risk (outside of injury or rapid deterioration).
That would be the bare minimum starting point, in my opinion.
If we were for some reason tasked with trading one of Harper or Castle... this is why I'd also prefer to trade Castle. His 85% outcome is lower than Harper's, IMO... though Castle's floor is higher at this point (since Harper is a defending ROY and Harper has yet to play a single minute of NBA basketball).
It's not really my personal evaluation of Harper; it's pretty much the consensus that he's considered the best guard prospect since Cade (not saying he's better than Ant as we know him now but Ant had a lot of questions at the time when drafted). Pelicans fans might say no to that trade but unless the hype about how respected Harper's game is is bull the Pelicans FO would probably spray their shorts if Brian Wright calls them and makes that offer.
But the consensus has become your personal evaluation, which is why you can't see anything else. The Spurs may not share that. The consensus doesn't matter... only the Spurs evaluation does.
And I disagree that the Pelicans FO would automatically accept that offer. They have two young, affordable known en ies in hand right now (assume health is not an issue, because that's obviously a real factor). Harper has a theoretical higher ceiling than both... but he also has an actual lower floor than both. There is no such thing as a can't miss prospect, and NOP has direct experience with a highly touted draft pick who has never met a bowl of gumbo or a pornstar he can resist and is a below median expectation player as a result.
There is no hard and fast calculus on this stuff, because it's not like each player has an objective rating, ceiling, floor, probability of hitting, etc... you gotta take a gamble. But if you had $3 million bucks, and I offered you a one-time-only 40% chance at winning $10 million for it... would you do that? Your EV is $4MM, which is greater than your $3MM... but your mode outcome is you went from having $3MM to having zero. You in?
that hypothetical pels package is definitely one i'd strongly consider. you upgrade both spots (murphy > vassell and herb > keldon) and can still use 7 to draft an immediate fit at guard like Kon or Tre if he somehow falls and the team gets quite a bit better quikly. murphy is the same age as vassell but is showing a much more promising trajectory as a player. i do think herb is a bit overrated (doesnt rebound that well, is overrated as shooter based on one very strong year on fairly low volume), but is a high iq player and good passer while being an incredibly versatile defender. its worth the consideration
you then tack on one of those defensive wings at 14 and you start having really good depth
Fox - Castle
Kon - Champagnie
Murphy - Barnes - Bryant (or fleming at PF)
Herb - Sochan
Wemby - FA
or alternatively
Fox - Wesley
Castle - Kon
Murphy - Barnes
Herb - Sochan
Wemby - FA
there are good ways to make these lineups work because none of Murphy/Herb are poor defenders or complete non-shooters (even if herb's is a bit overblown). i dont think this is a slam dunk to make the trade because if Harper ends up a legit all star like many think he is destined to be, could still easily be seen as losing the trade
Last edited by spurraider21; 06-02-2025 at 05:47 PM.
Of course I wouldn't do that, if I had an easily liquid $3 million I'd probably retire and move out of the hole US to one of the first world democracies overseas and that's worth way more than a 40% shot at converting to $10 million. Bad analogy, you're talking enormous opportunity cost.
Back to the NBA, you're not considering the outsized value superstars have in this league where a prime Harden was worth way more to a franchise than 35% of the cap. Trey Murphy is never going to be the guy who takes you to the WCF and is much much easier and cheaper to find than someone who can. It's not my evaluation, it's the evaluation of scouts and league executives that Harper has a good chance to be that guy. There isn't exactly a ton of opportunity cost in trading role players who lead your team to 21 wins, and Murphy had a really disappointing season defensively on top of that. A lot of downside in trading for him and perhaps finding out that instead of being Stephen Jackson he's more Antoine Carr.
Last edited by baseline bum; 06-02-2025 at 05:54 PM.
It’s pretty simple:
If the Spurs FO are believers of Harper as a talent/prospect and view him like most other scouts, then I don’t think you can trade him for anything less than a current already-proven star.
If the Spurs FO don’t think he’s really that caliber, then of course you see what others are willing to offer and make a trade if someone else gives up the farm for him.
When I talk about not having any interest in trading him, it’s because I’m just going with the somewhat clear consensus that he’s a future multiple all-NBA type prospect.
Draft harper or get Giannini
anything else is probably garbage
More interested in turning 14, vassel/kj/sochan, future firsts into Durant tbh
Agree. I can live with drafting Harper. I can live with trading for Giannis or another star. I would not love just a trade back to take a lesser prospect for a pick or two extra in future etc..
Give him the bag now!
I mean ok but imo that just means we're spending time talking about trades I think are and that doesn't seem like something I care to spend time doing. Of course if the Spurs don't value Harper as high they might trade him.easier but I just think that would be dumb.
You're the guy who responded.
You also thought Keldon was a sure fire All Star. So maybe you should spend more time considering other possible outcomes?
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