Phoenix Suns expect to part ways with Kevin Durant this offseason. Could the Spurs be a good landing place?

[scott]

Agree, and for me especially this year. I'm not in love with anyone likely there at 14 this year. I think the last of the tier 3 type players are gone by around pick 10 or 11. I want to either trade up a little or consider what else to do with it.

I actually like the options in the range of 14 quite a bit... but we have to be realistic about the most likely outcome of who we pick here. People act like #14 is going to yield some sure-fire career starter for us... when it probably won't.

[Payote75]

Yea I'm not hard up for Durant ...I'd be happier with Brown and keeping that window open. That said if Durant is who they want I don't include vassell I keep or trade him elsewhere even though I'm a huge fan of his but trade would be the same just take out vassell and put in keldon and figithe rest out. I'm not losing two young assets for one old asset even if he still is productive this team has to grow together like Steph green and clay we aren't ready for a finishing touch type player. There's work to be done

[024]

The median outcome of a #14 pick is that of a rotation player. (Source: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-dec...ick-value.html) Yes, there is upside for an all star (Bam was the #14 pick in 2017, followed by MPJ in 2018)... but there is also an equal amount of chance the #14 is a bust (the two guys I just mentioned were preceded by Denzel Valentine in 2016 and followed by Romeo Langford in 2019).

We're overvaluing the #14 a bit. It's also no longer "a lottery pick" - it's the 14th pick. The lottery is over, it is set in stone. It's lottery value disappears once the ping pong balls are drawn.

I did say we should be able to get serviceable player at 14. I had no high expectations about it. A serviceable big or 3 and D wing who is young and locked into the rookie scale is still pretty valuable. The upside is gravy and downside risk is low. Durant is a win now piece and not worth the tradeoff (especially if more assets are required) as a one year rental.

[objective]

I like a lot of the players anticipated to be there at 14 but I'd still move it with 10 seconds for Durant

Other teams can make better deals like the Knicks and KAT for KD, or Minnesota, or Houston ... But if the price is 14 and seconds and salary, I can't deny it no matter how interested I am in Fleming, Bryant, Wolf, Coward, Essengue, ....

[cd98]

I like a lot of the players anticipated to be there at 14 but I'd still move it with 10 seconds for Durant

Other teams can make better deals like the Knicks and KAT for KD, or Minnesota, or Houston ... But if the price is 14 and seconds and salary, I can't deny it no matter how interested I am in Fleming, Bryant, Wolf, Coward, Essengue, ....

Well, only Houston. Minnesota traded most of their picks to the Jazz and Spurs. They have late first round picks in this draft, but Spurs can offer Suns a lottery protected future pick that at least has the chance of being better than Twolves picks. Plus Twolves would have to give up a bunch of players for a 37 year old Durant and they are already going to have money issues because they will have to supermax Anthony Edwards soon. Money issues is why they traded Kat.

And the Knicks have no first rounders to trade and is Durant at his age better than Kat? I don't think so. At least not going forward. So Knicks can't give young players or draft picks.

The only team that can compete with the Spurs is the Rockets. It's a matter of how much SA and Rockets are willing to bid for Durant. And that's assuming the Rockets don't want to make a play for Giannis or Brown or some other player.

[Ice009]

Devin has been working his ass off this offseason. I really want to see how he'll look in an offball role next to Fox. I just can't see how we keep him on the team while adding KD.

Where have you read/seen this? Just following him on social media or something, or have you heard from someone he's been working his ass off? I still like the guy, I just wish he had fit better. I don't know, maybe he still can in a new/different role than what he was accustomed to before the Spurs drafted Victor.

[Devi8or]

I like Devin as much as the next guy, but the fact of the matter is, 36 year old KD is better than prime Devin Vassell. If he has to be in the trade, so be it. I'd do the Dev+KJ/HB+14 but I honestly don't know how much more I'd go than adding a filler. It's a definite no from me if they ask for more than one first round pick

[DPG21920]

Where have you read/seen this? Just following him on social media or something, or have you heard from someone he's been working his ass off? I still like the guy, I just wish he had fit better. I don't know, maybe he still can in a new/different role than what he was accustomed to before the Spurs drafted Victor.

Dev has always been a really hard worker and hes improved a lot - this last season he was hurt in off season so he didnt get his usual summer to work on game etc…which to me explains partly his down season

But he had improved basically every off season since he was drafted IMO except this last one where he was hurt.

[DPG21920]

Where have you read/seen this? Just following him on social media or something, or have you heard from someone he's been working his ass off? I still like the guy, I just wish he had fit better. I don't know, maybe he still can in a new/different role than what he was accustomed to before the Spurs drafted Victor.

Dev has always been a really hard worker and hes improved a lot - this last season he was hurt in off season so he didnt get his usual summer to work on game etc…which to me explains partly his down season

But he had improved basically every off season since he was drafted IMO except this last one where he was hurt.

[spurraider21]

The median outcome of a #14 pick is that of a rotation player. (Source: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-dec...ick-value.html) Yes, there is upside for an all star (Bam was the #14 pick in 2017, followed by MPJ in 2018)... but there is also an equal amount of chance the #14 is a bust (the two guys I just mentioned were preceded by Denzel Valentine in 2016 and followed by Romeo Langford in 2019).

We're overvaluing the #14 a bit. It's also no longer "a lottery pick" - it's the 14th pick. The lottery is over, it is set in stone. It's lottery value disappears once the ping pong balls are drawn.

agree with a lot of this. i still think people use the descriptor "lottery pick" as a shorthand to being in the front half of the draft, but yes, a big value of the "lotto" pick is the lotto itself, which we were fortunately the beneficiaries of again

and yeah, the median pick at 14 is a rotation guy. and the common names we've seen there like Bryant, Fleming, Sorber, etc... all scream role player and not necessarily starters either (even if they have have starter upside)

[LeBowen]

agree with a lot of this. i still think people use the descriptor "lottery pick" as a shorthand to being in the front half of the draft, but yes, a big value of the "lotto" pick is the lotto itself, which we were fortunately the beneficiaries of again

and yeah, the median pick at 14 is a rotation guy. and the common names we've seen there like Bryant, Fleming, Sorber, etc... all scream role player and not necessarily starters either (even if they have have starter upside)

The question is if 3 years (at the most) of KD are worth more than 7 (at least) years of a good 3-D starter?

[Splits]

Devin has been working his ass off this offseason. I really want to see how he'll look in an offball role next to Fox. I just can't see how we keep him on the team while adding KD.

lol that video of Vasseline and KD was 2 years ago.

lol Vasseline in an offball role while he dribble dribble dribbles and bricks.

dude is useless outside of fooling other teams he's worth something

[exstatic]

Yea I'm not hard up for Durant ...I'd be happier with Brown and keeping that window open. That said if Durant is who they want I don't include vassell I keep or trade him elsewhere even though I'm a huge fan of his but trade would be the same just take out vassell and put in keldon and figithe rest out. I'm not losing two young assets for one old asset even if he still is productive this team has to grow together like Steph green and clay we aren't ready for a finishing touch type player. There's work to be done

The thing is, if you don’t include Devin, you’re looking at a 3 for 1 or even a 4 for 1 trade when we only have 10 players under contract. That leaves us with 7 players, needing 14. You have two exceptions to use. Do you just sign 5 guys off waivers? Malaki and Blake never popped in their development, but they’re cheap, and they know the plays.

The reality is that there isn’t going to be enough shots for Wemby, Fox, Castle, Harper, and Devin. Sending Devin out would be a kindness.

[Payote75]

The thing is, if you don’t include Devin, you’re looking at a 3 for 1 or even a 4 for 1 trade when we only have 10 players under contract. That leaves us with 7 players, needing 14. You have two exceptions to use. Do you just sign 5 guys off waivers? Malaki and Blake never popped in their development, but they’re cheap, and they know the plays.

The reality is that there isn’t going to be enough shots for Wemby, Fox, Castle, Harper, and Devin. Sending Devin out would be a kindness.

Got it.....maybe I'm being greedy but I do love Devon but if he must go I'd rather get another asset for him maybe a big etc. but I don't want to pay for 37 yr old Durant. I know he is still very good but he could be only one year or two year good then fall off a cliff and you have a big hole again. I'd rather a team continue to grow or get someone that's fits the window.

[spurraider21]

The question is if 3 years (at the most) of KD are worth more than 7 (at least) years of a good 3-D starter?

7 years (at least) of a good starter is way above the median expectation for pick #14

just recently, our last several picks around this range have been Sochan, Primo, Vassell, Lonnie Walker, Luka Samanic

in the last 20 years, of guys taken #14 overall, guys who have been mutli-year starters with say, 200 career starts (2.5 seasons):

Ronnie Brewer, Marcus Morris, TJ Warren, Bam Adebayo, MPJ (fell due to injury concerns)

and to be fair, Aaron Nesmith is well on his way. thats 6/20, or less than a third of those picks that wind up as consistent staters. there were some flash in the pan players like Al Thornton, Earl Clark, and Moses Moody is a nice player.

but its the boat vs mystery box, and you arent hitting many home runs at 14 other than Bam and MPJ

[Ice009]

lol that video of Vasseline and KD was 2 years ago.

lol Vasseline in an offball role while he dribble dribble dribbles and bricks.

dude is useless outside of fooling other teams he's worth something

This is why I asked. I wasn't sure if he was basing it off of that video of Devin from 2023 mistaking it for being this offseason.

[cutewizard]

Duran Duran

[rjv]

i have no problem with getting a solid rotation player out of the 14th pick. solid rotation players are a vital ingredient to any contending team.

[baseline bum]

Yea I'm not hard up for Durant ...I'd be happier with Brown and keeping that window open. That said if Durant is who they want I don't include vassell I keep or trade him elsewhere even though I'm a huge fan of his but trade would be the same just take out vassell and put in keldon and figithe rest out. I'm not losing two young assets for one old asset even if he still is productive this team has to grow together like Steph green and clay we aren't ready for a finishing touch type player. There's work to be done

Trading for Jaylen Brown's ridiculous contract prematurely shuts the window. Brown's not half the player 37 YO Durant is but makes the same money.

[dubross]

Trading for Jaylen Brown's ridiculous contract prematurely shuts the window. Brown's not half the player 37 YO Durant is but makes the same money.

Yeah I would rather of Durant, that Brown contract will be albatross. At least with Durant, we can extend and dictate a little bit our cap situation better since his contact will be up.

[SpursFan86]

More KD to SA rumors from Gambo. Also another random account with 60k followers tweeted this:

Anyone know of any sites that list odds for KD’s next team? Curious what they look like at this point.

[Mr. Body]

I fully believe KD will be in a Spurs uniform next season, yeah. Again, that fit with Harper coming in makes little sense. Kind of weird bringing in a top level draft pick and almost ensuring he can't get time to develop, and possibly for years.

[exstatic]

I fully believe KD will be in a Spurs uniform next season, yeah. Again, that fit with Harper coming in makes little sense. Kind of weird bringing in a top level draft pick and almost ensuring he can't get time to develop, and possibly for years.

You realize that Devin probably goes out, along with HB, and that CP3 isn’t coming back, right? That’s 86 minutes per game for KD, Harper, and whoever else. It makes perfect sense.

[Mr. Body]

You realize that Devin probably goes out, along with HB, and that CP3 isn’t coming back, right? That’s 86 minutes per game for KD, Harper, and whoever else. It makes perfect sense.

No, it doesn't.

[exstatic]

No, it doesn't.

There are plenty of minutes, 86 to be exact, from guys going out or rolling off. Harper is going to play. What makes no sense is to not draft him because he will be eased in, instead of being dropped into the fire like our picks from the last 5 years, and because we want to raise our ceiling for 3 years with an old guy.