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You're really doubling down on your insider arc.
You better be right or you'll never hear the end of it.
I can't see them trading down from Harper unless they have some serious concerns about his game, everything else is realistic.
I don't think people understand what's going on here. I see folks saying "we should do what OKC did and keep our young core", no we don't. Our young core sucks. A bunch of non-shooting, no defense playing low IQ players. This ain't OKC. We don't have Chip Engelland on our staff.
We got a generational superstar who's a top 10 player in the NBA with 2 years left on his rookie deal. We got his longtime running mate with 3 years left. And we got prime Fox. That's why we are trading for KD and that won't be the only move we'll make. There's no more room for "oh let's give him another year to figure out what his role is" or "to figure out how to shoot". That's over with. Everybody had 2 full seasons for that.
Untradeable:
Wemby
Fox
Castle
Players that the Spurs would like to keep, but could be traded anyway:
Keldon - embraced his role as a sixth man
Wesley - Fox is very high on him and became his mentor
Champagnie - contract is amazing
Most likely gone:
Vassell
Sochan
Branham
Barnes
Gone for good:
CP3
Bassey
Mamu
Branham
Biyombo
Two-ways that might make the main roster:
Riley Minnix (almost a lock he gets a guaranteed deal)
Harrison Ingram
And yes we'll trade #14 and there's a good chance we'll trade down from #2 for further upgrades and future draft capital. Y'all can hate it all you want. The Spurs have clearly smelled championshipblood watching these playoffs. They are trying to set this up to be a superteam that can go on a run and they will never have that much leverage again.
Player movement will be crazy this offseason and teams will look completely different once it's over. Teams like Utah, ATL, Brooklyn and NOLA are having a fire sale. That means players like:
Lauri Markannen (too expensive)
John Collins
Walker Kessler
Collin Sexton
Jordan Clarkson
Trey Murphy
Herb Jones
Jalen Johnson
Onyeka Okongwu
Cam Johnson
Niclas Claxton
are all up for grabs and the Spurs have all the leverage because at #2 there's a franchise PG to get. They won't let that opportunity slide to have another poorly constructed team with spacing issues and be the 6th seed in the west. They will add on to KD, while replenishing their future draft assets and draft someone with future All-Star potential in the top 10.
Last edited by RC_Drunkford; 06-11-2025 at 04:46 AM.
You're really doubling down on your insider arc.
You better be right or you'll never hear the end of it.
I can't see them trading down from Harper unless they have some serious concerns about his game, everything else is realistic.
well I myself would draft Harper also, just because he's the surest prospect at #2. Even KOC is saying it looks like the Spurs ain't trading #2. But it makes too much sense to do it now.
1. Harper's fit is questionable
2. A lot of fringe All-Stars and good rotation pieces on great long term contracts are on the trading block
3. the Spurs don't have any extra first rounders left to trade
4. There are some promising front court players in the top 10 who could become All-Stars
Do I trust the Spurs to draft the right guy? Not really
But in theory if you can get a fringe All-Star like a Trey Murphy or Jalen Johnson (health is a concern) and draft another guy who becomes an All-Star and get future draft capital? That's too good to pass up, especially if you want to ring in the KD window.
Disagree tbh
Comments from Wright and Mitch after the draft lottery stay consistent. They believe in continuity. They will maintain that 70% to 80% continuity rate that scott once presented in a thread.
All things considered
Why not win now?
Who knows what's the future......
Not really.
Castle seems to be more of a combo guard and we need another point guard.
If we don't get Harper, we need to find a good backup point guard.
People think it's a bad fit just because #2 pick is overqualified for a 6th man role.
The only fringe all-star on a great long term contract is Trey Murphy. I'm not trading down from #2 for rotation players.2. A lot of fringe All-Stars and good rotation pieces on great long term contracts are on the trading block
And since it looks like we're getting KD, we won't be getting Murphy.
Why not? You think that Spurs will draft a player every single year?3. the Spurs don't have any extra first rounders left to trade
It's not like they drafted every single year during the big3 era.
For me #2 pick is too valuable to trade away for a few picks down the road.
We don't have to use all those future picks to draft players.
An all-star guard is almost always more valuable than all-star big in today's game.4. There are some promising front court players in the top 10 who could become All-Stars
(I'm talking just regular all-stars, not superstars.)
That's why we need to use that #2 pick and not overthink it.Do I trust the Spurs to draft the right guy? Not really
You can't write this after just saying you don't trust the Spurs to draft the right guy.draft another guy who becomes an All-Star
If they wanted a ring in KD window they shouldn't have hired a rookie coach.That's too good to pass up, especially if you want to ring in the KD window.
true, I agree with that
I'd say a healthy Jalen Johnson is up there with himThe only fringe all-star on a great long term contract is Trey Murphy. I'm not trading down from #2 for rotation players.
And since it looks like we're getting KD, we won't be getting Murphy.
They not there to draft players, they are there to trade for players once KD or even Fox is off the books. Free agency is trade season now, because no team let's the contracts of valuable rotation players expire anymore.Why not? You think that Spurs will draft a player every single year?
It's not like they drafted every single year during the big3 era.
For me #2 pick is too valuable to trade away for a few picks down the road.
We don't have to use all those future picks to draft players.
Yes, but off the dribble shooting is much more important for ball handlers than it is for front court players and it's Harper's main weakness. And that's not just from 3, but also midrange.An all-star guard is almost always more valuable than all-star big in today's game.
(I'm talking just regular all-stars, not superstars.)
I'm just saying what they might do. That doesn't mean I agree with every part of it. Has to be seen who they are gonna draft if my prediction is true. But the Spurs brass might be confident that player XY has a similar ceiling as Harper.You can't write this after just saying you don't trust the Spurs to draft the right guy.
well the thing is KD likes that the Spurs kept Mitch, so it's actually another positive point that gets him here.If they wanted a ring in KD window they shouldn't have hired a rookie coach.
Hawks front office probably requires every employee to block Wright's number.
We can't trade just in '26 and '28 due to '27 being gone, but we have ATL '27 and we're good to go after '29.They not there to draft players, they are there to trade for players once KD or even Fox is off the books. Free agency is trade season now, because no team let's the contracts of valuable rotation players expire anymore.
Trading down from #2 to get future picks would be idiotic.
We can easily get late FRPs with SRPs.
We got 4 SRPs in '26 draft for example.
Harper has a way better starting point than Castle.Yes, but off the dribble shooting is much more important for ball handlers than it is for front court players and it's Harper's main weakness. And that's not just from 3, but also midrange.
You seem to have too much inside info. We'll see if it's any good.well the thing is KD likes that the Spurs kept Mitch, so it's actually another positive point that gets him here.
This goes against everything Pop, the Holts, Brian Wright and Mitch Johnson have said. Maybe next summer but this summer will be business as usual other than maybe a KD trade and/or a lesser trade for a big. I even see a scenario where Vassell is back. Now if they reach the trade deadline in season and the team is mediocre or they miss the playoffs next year the Spurs will unload the chamber.
Times are changing.....we need to adapt to changing cir stances
wrong. Onsi Saleh is the new Hawks GM. He used to work in our front office before. His main profession is long term financial strategy. That means: generating cap spaceHawks front office probably requires every employee to block Wright's number.
Getting a deal done with Atlanta is one of the easiest things the Spurs have on the table.
yes, but what I'm saying is the Spurs don't want to do that. The picks with the swap will only be traded after the lottery. They are not going down the road of trading 4 future picks to add a star to Wemby and Castle and then being out of draft capital. You need to have a first rounder to trade every season to manuever. That's the exact reason why teams like Milwaukee and Denver can't do anything to make minor improvements.We can't trade just in '26 and '28 due to '27 being gone, but we have ATL '27 and we're good to go after '29.
Trading down from #2 to get future picks would be idiotic.
We can easily get late FRPs with SRPs.
We got 4 SRPs in '26 draft for example.
Last edited by RC_Drunkford; 06-11-2025 at 08:44 AM.
I think there will be changes, but I don't thing this franchise will swing that hard in this direction. A few thoughts perusing this thread:
1. I don't think we trade #2, but if we were going for that type of move why wouldn't we trade the ROY instead and keep Harper. Much higher upside.
2. I don't like Jalen Johnson here. I don't really want a 3 that can't shoot and moreover I wouldn't commit $30M/per for it.
3. I do think we get KD and we find a way to acquire one other from your list.
4. I also think we sign two in FA's.
5. That's 5 new players + Minix and maybe Mamu. We keep 7 or 8 of what we have and save a roster spot for a later season move.
Those are my best guesses.
Agree with others’ sentiments here. I would be shocked to see us blow up 2/3 of our roster. I do see us getting KD which naturally means 2-3 guys are probably gone. I don’t see us trading #2 unless someone just throws us an insane offer. CP3 leaving is a given.
As for all of the ty end of bench guys, sure, there will be some turnover…but I’d bet that two of Wesley/Branham/Mamu/Bassey are back next year.
There will be turnover and our roster next year will look much different. Just don’t think it’ll be as drastic as OP is implying.
Imagine making this thread and justifying Keldon staying
I never said this is what I would do. Keldon and Barnes would be the first ones out the door, because they are our worst defenders. But the Spurs do things differently. He has a farm, he doesn't like New York, he's the emotional leader of the team. We can't trade himImagine making this thread and justifying Keldon staying
They want to keep him, because he has embraced his bench role. I think it's stupid, but this franchise has done plenty of stupid stuff in the past.
Not really surprising.
Wemby Year One was gathering intel on what works for him on the court
Wemby Year Two was adding vets and starting to build out, looking for opportunities
Wemby Year Three is being more aggressive in adding the pieces needed to compete seriously
The only real surprises for me were that they could secure both Paul and Barnes last year, that the near-star veteran they got wasn't just not very expensive in assets, but is a compe ive player (not Markkanen), and Durant, other than landing the #2 somehow.
They went from no real guard play to an overabundance of guards (if Harper comes on). I expect roster turnover this summer. This is why Mamu, for example, expected to be gone. They know what they want now. I do think there's value in simply keeping guys like Wesley and Branham, or bringing Mamu back for cheap. They'll need to fill roster slots with cheap contracts/contracts they already have. The only thing that would really surprise me is if Sochan is moved. The rest isn't a big surprise.
I've been saying this from day one since Wemby was drafted. If you look at the trajectory of rosters that evolved around superstars drafted to bad teams, there is often 90-100% change from rookie season to the first championship season. That's true of Jordan, Giannis, Jokic, etc...
The Spurs had the good fortune and privilege to embrace a tradition of "continuity" throughout Tim Duncan's career, but they also won 56 games in his first season and an NBA le in his second. Wemby's rookie team won 22 games.
And even in Duncan's case, the concept of continuity wasn't really present between the '99 team and the '03 team. The only remaining teammate of Tim's getting significant minutes on both teams was Robinson, and otherwise there was huge turnover in terms of roster. Once the Tim/Manu/Tony thing was set, then they could embrace the idea of tiny adjustments and "continuity."
To me it isn't about our mediocre young players or the Spurs going all in. Really, they need depth that is on good contracts. To me, that is the "formula" or whatever. We are a hodge podge. The FO goes one step at a time. It's not perfect. But I expect it to continue. They will make trades that are too good to pass up.
I can easily see Mamu and Biyombo back for example. They can't remake the whole roster.
The idea of “turnover” being used here misses the point. What was being discussed is year-to-year continuity, not whether the roster in year one matches year five. The Spurs have consistently had one of the lowest annual turnover rates in the league, often around 20 to 30 percent. That reflects a commitment to continuity.
Even in the Duncan era, the roster changed over time, but it did so gradually. That’s the continuity the Spurs are known for— intentional evolution, not wholesale resets. A roster looking different five years later doesn’t contradict that approach. It reinforces how continuity plays out in a long-term development model.
Season Transition Approx. Total Players Returning Players Return Rate 1999 → 2000 ~12 ~10 ~83% 2000 → 2001 ~14 ~11–12 ~79%–86% 2001 → 2002 15 ~11–12 ~73%–80% 2002 → 2003 ~15 ~10 ~67% 2003 → 2004 ~15 ~9 ~60%
Average across these 5 years ≈ 73.8%
The NBA average turnover rate year-to-year is typically 40% to 50%, meaning most teams retain only 8 to 9 players (or fewer) from the previous season.
We have wemby, every year of his career from here on should be win now mode.
Malik was present, too.
I think the point that people are making isn’t that there won’t be roster turnover, just that it won’t be as much as OP says. If we do nothing else, there will be a roster 20% turnover between opening day 2024 and opening day 2025 by virtue of subtracting Tre, Collins, and Cissoko.
The major reason for the 99-03 turnover was age. The Lakers butt ed us in 01 by pressing and generating turnovers. You can’t feed Duncan if the ball is stolen at midcourt. Our guards were old and slow.
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