Will TACO fold again?

[velik_m]

The tariff clock is ticking with just two weeks left

...
Driving the news: The "Liberation Day" tariff pause ends on July 8.

* President Trump threatened that 50% tariffs on European goods would come a day later, assuming no deal, as well as the restart of substantial tariffs against dozens of other countries.

The big picture: Financial markets aren't as panicky now as they were three months ago. The "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO) trade has shown that.

* Stocks are up about 20% since the pause went in place, shrugging off the trade war, actual war in the Middle East, and lingering doubts about the place of the U.S. economy in the world.
* But even if markets aren't nervous, and even if consumers are now more upbeat than they were in the spring, businesses are getting more anxious than ever about what comes next.
* Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok, in a new paper this week, predicts tariffs mean a 25% chance of recession in the next 12 months, and even if that doesn't happen, they'll still mean higher-for-longer interest rates.
...

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/tru...-mexico-canada

[velik_m]

India-US trade talks collapse over tariff disputes

TRADE talks between India and the US have hit a roadblock over disagreements on import duties for auto components, steel and farm goods, Indian officials with direct knowledge said, dashing hopes of reaching a deal ahead of president Donald Trump's July 9 deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs.

The deadlock marks a sharp shift from earlier optimism, following Trump's claim that New Delhi had proposed a "no tariffs" agreement for American goods, and officials from both sides suggesting India could be among the first countries to strike a deal on the new US tariffs.

India is pushing for a rollback of the proposed 26 per cent reciprocal tariff set to take effect on July 9, along with concessions on existing US tariffs on steel and auto parts. But US negotiators have not yet agreed to the demands, three Indian government officials said.

"The US side first wants India to commit to deeper import tariff cuts on farm goods like soybeans and corn, cars and alcoholic beverages along with easing of non-tariff barriers," leading to disagreement between the two sides, one of the sources said.

...

Even in a worst-case scenario, a third official said, India could absorb the impact of reciprocal tariffs, citing its continued tariff advantage over compe ors like Vietnam and China.

India's exports to the US rose to $17.25bn (£13.6bn) in April-May, up from $14.17bn (£11.2bn)a year earlier, suggesting the US tariff hikes averaging 10 per cent in early April had a limited impact.

https://www.easterneye.biz/india-us-...riff-disputes/

[velik_m]

Looks like he will chicken out again:

Trump trade deadlines in July ‘not critical’: White House

President Donald Trump could extend looming deadlines for reimposing steep tariffs on imports from most of the world’s countries, the White House said Thursday.

Trump’s July 8 and 9 deadlines for restarting tariffs on those nations are “not critical,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

“Perhaps it could be extended, but that’s a decision for the president to make,” Leavitt said.

Leavitt also said Thursday that if any of those countries refuse to make a trade deal with the United States by the deadlines, “The president can simply provide these countries with a deal.”
...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/26/trum...-deadline.html

[Winehole23]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday that negotiations with U.S. trading partners could be “wrapped up by Labor Day,” beyond a July 8 deadline set by President Trump.

[TSA]

The tariff clock is ticking with just two weeks left

...
Driving the news: The "Liberation Day" tariff pause ends on July 8.

* President Trump threatened that 50% tariffs on European goods would come a day later, assuming no deal, as well as the restart of substantial tariffs against dozens of other countries.

The big picture: Financial markets aren't as panicky now as they were three months ago. The "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO) trade has shown that.

* Stocks are up about 20% since the pause went in place, shrugging off the trade war, actual war in the Middle East, and lingering doubts about the place of the U.S. economy in the world.
* But even if markets aren't nervous, and even if consumers are now more upbeat than they were in the spring, businesses are getting more anxious than ever about what comes next.
* Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok, in a new paper this week, predicts tariffs mean a 25% chance of recession in the next 12 months, and even if that doesn't happen, they'll still mean higher-for-longer interest rates.


https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/tru...-mexico-canada

One of Wall Street’s top critics of President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz has now admitted the president’s unpredictable trade policy may be more calculated than chaotic, asking out loud in a new blog: “Is Trump a genius?”

Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management and a consistent skeptic of the tariffs since it was announced, posted a striking about-face in his latest market note, conceding: “Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”

Just months ago, Sløk warned that Trump’s escalating import duties, 10% on most goods and 30% on Chinese products, would be “certainly painful” and risked destabilizing U.S. markets. Now, with Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire on July 9, Sløk is pitching a very different view: The tariffs could be a masterstroke, forcing global partners to the table while generating billions for the Treasury.

https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/...ne-on-tariffs/

Has Trump Outsmarted Everyone on Tariffs?

As we approach the Trump administration’s self-imposed 90-day deadline for trade deals, markets are starting to speculate about what comes next. The longer uncertainty remains elevated, the more negative its impact on the economy, as shown in the chart below.

Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on all other countries and then give all countries 12 months to lower non-tariff barriers and open up their economies to trade.

Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs, and it would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.

This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers. Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/is-trump-a-genius/

[ChumpDumper]

No, it's stupid.

"would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers"

Paid by...US taxpayers....

It's another regressive sales tax.

[ChumpDumper]

Look, if it's this easy to impose tariffs, it will be just as easy to change or rescind them.

This is what you want.

This is what you will get.

[velik_m]

US Trade Deficit Surges Despite Donald Trump's Tariffs

...

The Census Bureau reported a gap of around $96.6 billion in May, up 11.1 percent compared to the $87 billion reported in April. Exports for May dropped to $179.2 billion, dropping about 5 percent (or $9.7 billion) from April, while imports were about $0.1 billion less at around $275.8 billion.

This accompanied offsetting changes in wholesale and retail inventories, which saw the former decrease by .3 percent while the latter increased at the same rate. In real dollars, that translated to end-of-month Advanced Wholesale Inventories of $905.4 billion and Advanced Retail inventories of around $806.6 billion. Both were up compared to the same month one year earlier.

...

https://www.newsweek.com/us-trade-de...ariffs-2091131

[Blake]

One of Wall Street’s top critics of President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz has now admitted the president’s unpredictable trade policy may be more calculated than chaotic, asking out loud in a new blog: “Is Trump a genius?”

Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management and a consistent skeptic of the tariffs since it was announced, posted a striking about-face in his latest market note, conceding: “Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”

Just months ago, Sløk warned that Trump’s escalating import duties, 10% on most goods and 30% on Chinese products, would be “certainly painful” and risked destabilizing U.S. markets. Now, with Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire on July 9, Sløk is pitching a very different view: The tariffs could be a masterstroke, forcing global partners to the table while generating billions for the Treasury.

https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/...ne-on-tariffs/

Has Trump Outsmarted Everyone on Tariffs?

As we approach the Trump administration’s self-imposed 90-day deadline for trade deals, markets are starting to speculate about what comes next. The longer uncertainty remains elevated, the more negative its impact on the economy, as shown in the chart below.

Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on all other countries and then give all countries 12 months to lower non-tariff barriers and open up their economies to trade.

Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs, and it would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.

This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers. Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/is-trump-a-genius/

Lol no it's not 4d chess no matter how many times you guys want it to be. He's really just an idiot and so are you.

[ChumpDumper]

Trump s keep doing backflips for this moron.

Why?

[DMX7]

I once heard a liberal commentator say that it was in the best interest of the United States to run very big trade deficits because countries that traded with us used the money we paid them to buy our treasuries enabling us to go into virtually unlimited debt without any real negative effects. No wonder we have $37 trillion in debt. Because we've had people this stupid in our country.

[DMX7]

Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on all other countries and then give all countries 12 months to lower non-tariff barriers and open up their economies to trade.

Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs, and it would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.

This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers. Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.

We should have done this a long time ago, but most other countries realized we would just accept nearly all unfair tariffs and other trade practices imposed against us... until now.

[ChumpDumper]

Oh look, DMX7 stanning for Trump again.

[Blake]

Trump s keep doing backflips for this moron.

Why?

Anything for lib tears!

[DMX7]

Oh look, DMX7 stanning for Trump again.

So what? I'll stand against him on the things I disagree with him on. I literally voted for Harris, but I don't take marching orders from the DNC or RNC like you.

[ChumpDumper]

So what? I'll stand against him on the things I disagree with him on. I literally voted for Harris, but I don't take marching orders from the DNC or RNC like you.

You're for a high regressive sales tax on all imports?

Was that your Berniebro stance?

[DMX7]

You're for a high regressive sales tax on all imports?

Was that your Berniebro stance?

Generally speaking, I think 30% tariffs for China and 10% tariffs for other countries is ideal with some industry specific exemptions that may make sense. So far companies are clearly not passing on all of the tariffs to customers. I do think we'll see more of it, but the benefits to domestic industry and the tax revenue are worth it to me.

[velik_m]

Trump ending all trade talks with Canada ‘immediately’

U.S. President Donald Trump says his team is ending all trade talks with Canada, “effective immediately,” citing disagreement over Canada’s controversial digital services tax as the reason for shutting down negotiations.

He made the announcement in a post Friday on Truth Social, calling the levy “a direct and blatant attack” on the U.S. and its technology companies.

Trump’s announcement is a wrench in ongoing trade discussions between the two countries, which have been in the throes of a trade war for months, since the president’s first slate of tariffs on Canadian goods in February.

Trump has since levied a series of sweeping and stacked tariffs on Canadian products, targeting a range of industries. Canadian countermeasures are also in place.

Following the G7 meetings in Kananaskis, Alta. earlier this month, Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney said they would pursue negotiations toward a new trade and security deal by mid-July, a 30-day deadline from their discussions in the Rockies.
...

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/arti...a-immediately/

So emotional.

[ChumpDumper]

Generally speaking, I think 30% tariffs for China and 10% tariffs for other countries is ideal with some industry specific exemptions that may make sense. So far companies are clearly not passing on all of the tariffs to customers. I do think we'll see more of it, but the benefits to domestic industry and the tax revenue are worth it to me.

Which domestic industries?

Phones?

Televisions?

Textiles?

Furniture?

[DMX7]

Which domestic industries?

Phones?

Televisions?

Textiles?

Furniture?

Autos, semiconductors, appliances, pharmaceuticals... there are plenty.

[Winehole23]

Generally speaking, I think 30% tariffs for China and 10% tariffs for other countries is ideal with some industry specific exemptions that may make sense. So far companies are clearly not passing on all of the tariffs to customers. I do think we'll see more of it, but the benefits to domestic industry and the tax revenue are worth it to me.

why do you think these historically extreme tariff levels make sense?

[ChumpDumper]

Autos, semiconductors, appliances, pharmaceuticals... there are plenty.

So you want everyone to pay more for all those plenty things?

[TSA]

Lol no it's not 4d chess no matter how many times you guys want it to be. He's really just an idiot and so are you.

You can call me an idiot all you want as if it means anything coming from you, an actual idiot. I expose your stupidity here day after day after day and all you can do is lash out and project.

[ChumpDumper]

TSAnon still trying to ignore his history of believing the stupidest ever posted on this board.

[DMX7]

So you want everyone to pay more for all those plenty things?

You don't want jobs and tax revenues?