welp
After 12 days of military operations, a survey of the resulting damage is appropriate. . . . Overall, Israel’s and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack. That being said, there are residuals such as stocks of 60%, 20%, and 3-5% enriched uranium and the centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed at Natanz or Fordow. These non-destroyed parts pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium.
Complicating any effort to turn weapon-grade uranium into nuclear explosives have been extensive attacks against Iran’s facilities and personnel to make the nuclear weapon itself. Its infrastructure to build the nuclear weapon has been severely damaged. The time Iran would need to build even a non-missile deliverable nuclear weapon has increased significantly.
In particular, major setbacks include: the elimination of, or severe damage to, the majority of the centrifuges at the Natanz site, significant damage to the Fordow underground site, destruction and damage to several facilities at the Esfahan Nuclear Complex. . . . The attack on the IR-40 Arak Heavy Water Reactor has likely destroyed the reactor, eliminating a potential future source of plutonium that could be used in nuclear weapons. . . .
Further damage assessments are needed for some of the sites, particularly underground sites. Israeli intelligence would be expected to be hunting in Iran, even under the ceasefire, for non-destroyed residuals. . . .
Natanz Nuclear Complex
The Natanz complex was Iran’s primary uranium enrichment site. . . . The underground halls can be characterized as the “workhorse” of Iran’s enrichment program focused on producing less than 5% enriched uranium. The above ground pilot plant is Iran’s principal centrifuge research and development facility and was also producing 60% enriched uranium.
On June 13, the Ins ute reported on the Israeli strikes to Natanz, highlighting the destruction of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and the onsite electrical infrastructure. The loss of electrical power is likely to have caused damage to the centrifuges in the underground Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP). A subsequent review of satellite imagery from June 14 showed two or three small explosive impact craters on the surface over the FEP halls, leading to a reassessment that substantially more damage likely occurred in the initial attack to the underground enrichment plant. . . .
This assessment is in line with the next day’s statement released by the IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi that “on the same day [of the attack], the main cascade hall appears to have been attacked using ground-penetrating munitions . . . the strikes on the underground cascade halls were seriously damaging.” . . .
The site was attacked again early on June 22, this time by the United States. Satellite imagery shows at least one penetration hole located above the buried enrichment hall caused by a GBU-57 bunker buster. It is reported by the U.S. Department of Defense that at least two GBU-57’s (MOP) attacked the site, possibly in an attack where one followed the other through the same penetration hole in a “double tap” strike. As a result, the site is likely destroyed and knocked out of operation. No damage was observed in satellite imagery of the complex being constructed underneath Mt. Kolang Gaz La.
Fordow Enrichment Plant
Fordow enrichment site is a deeply buried uranium enrichment site associated with the production of highly enriched uranium . . . revealed in 2009 by Western leaders. Iran promptly declared it as a civil facility dedicated to making low enriched uranium and allowed international inspection. Inspectors who soon after visited the site reported that the internal pipework, equipment, and uranium feed stations were in line with a site to make weapon-grade uranium. On the next visit by inspectors, all the pipework and other equipment associated with weapon-grade uranium production had been removed, with the Iranians giving the excuse that the ceiling needed to be repainted. . . .
In a striking attack in the early morning of June 22, the U.S. dropped twelve MOPs over the deeply buried enrichment halls. High-resolution satellite imagery taken post attack shows two groups of three penetration holes on the mountain above the enrichment halls. This set of holes are at the location of the ventilation shaft of the underground complex and at the location of previously identified service-related structures that lay above the cascade hall, enabling easier pathways for the MOPs to the deeply buried halls. As a result, the facility is likely severely damaged or destroyed. . . .
It appears that the bombing was precisely targeted to concentrate on two likely points of vulnerability. . . . The first point target is what can generally be termed as a ventilation “shaft” but is likely a more elaborate structure, which connects subsurface with a central hallway leading to the two main underground halls shown in the plot plan housing both equipment and centrifuges. The second point target is located on the other side of the mountain ridge. . . . [It] not only completely destroyed [a] surface structure but was likely intended to focus at depth on the south end of centrifuge cascade hall, which, once breached, would use the hall’s long side walls to channel the blast wave through the entire length of centrifuge cascade hall completely destroying all of the installed and otherwise operational centrifuges. Interestingly, the bomb blast waves that would have been generated down the two halls from these two points of attack run perpendicular to one another, further increasing the likelihood of maximum damage and destruction.
It is possible that the Iranians tried to move the enriched uranium kept at the site. Dismantling and transporting some of the installed centrifuges, or at least their rotor assemblies, may also have occurred, but this process is complex and time consuming and may have damaged centrifuges. . . .
In a follow up attack, Israel struck the site on the night of June 22/23, reportedly targeting access routes to the facility, in order to obstruct access to the Fordow site, but as yet we are unable to confirm from imagery available to us.
Esfahan Nuclear Complex
The Esfahan complex has been targeted three times, twice by Israel and once by the U.S. Extensive damage has been done to the site.
The first attack was on June 14. Satellite imagery from the day of the strike shows damage to four buildings at the uranium conversion complex; the enriched uranium metal conversion plant was destroyed, a possible Shipping and Receiving Building was severely damaged, the Tehran Reactor Fuel Manufacturing Plant (FPFP) was partially damaged, and the Central Chemical Laboratory was also partially damaged. . . .
The enriched uranium metal conversion line, which converts uranium tetrafluoride into enriched uranium metal, is a key capability in making weapon-grade uranium cores of nuclear weapons. This line had been tested with 20% enriched uranium and could process any 90% enriched uranium. Destruction of this facility would cause a bottleneck in any effort by Iran to build nuclear weapons, requiring Iran to build a new clandestine one, if it wanted nuclear weapons, a risky and potentially time-consuming step.
The Tehran Reactor Fuel Manufacturing Plant (aka FPFP) can make natural uranium metal. This facility also stores(ed) 20% and 60% enriched uranium. . . .
A second attack was carried out on the night of June 20/21. The IAEA reported on June 21, “six other buildings at the same site have now also been attacked: a natural and depleted uranium metal production facility which had not yet begun operations, a fuel rod production facility, a building with low-enriched uranium pellet production as well as a laboratory and nuclear material storage, another laboratory building, a workshop handling contaminated equipment and an office building. . . .”
The next night, on June 22, the U.S. attacked the site with Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a submarine. . . . Notably, the main uranium conversion facility that converts natural uranium into uranium hexafluoride was severely damaged. Uranium hexafluoride is the form of uranium entered into gas centrifuges. Tunnel entrances leading to an underground complex [rumored to hold stockpiles of enriched uranium] just north of the main Esfahan complex were also struck during the attack. All four tunnel entrances appear to have collapsed. The IAEA also assessed that “extensive damage” was done to the tunnel entrances.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/attacks-..._copyURL_share
So you don't know where the uranium is.
Lol tsa posting the usual text walls to avoid answering.
And oh yeah still declaring internet victory because Trump said so.
OBLITERATED!!!!!
War with Iran back on the menu?
https://www.newsweek.com/us-deploys-...-east-10809727The sudden deployment of dozens of KC-135 tankers comes amid a highly volatile regional environment. Similar large-scale military movements were observed just before the 12-day conflict involving Israel and U.S. strikes on Iran’s infrastructure and nuclear facilities.
Tensions have been further fueled by stalled nuclear negotiations with Tehran and ongoing sanctions, all of which heighten the risk of rapid confrontation. The concentration of aerial refueling capability in Qatar ensures that U.S. forces can respond quickly across the region, underscoring the strategic implications of the deployment.
saber-rattling detected
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../125046786.cmsIraq’s Defence Minister Thabit al-Abbasi has revealed shocking details of a call with US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who reportedly warned Baghdad of an impending military operation in the Middle East. Al-Abbasi said the US issued a “final warning” that Iraqi armed groups, including Iran-backed factions, must not respond. The statement follows growing regional tension as Washington and Tel Aviv reportedly plan new coordinated strikes.
Israel trying to talk Trump off the ledge -- in conjunction with US Arab allies -- is a sign that our bad king is slipping into mad king territory if he isn't already there
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/u...israel-us.htmlPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has asked the President Trump to postpone any planned attack on Iran, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Egypt have also asked the Trump administration not to attack Iran.
(paywalled)
the Iranian regime is a bit more subtle than Trump in that Trump and his followers believe that all of the protesters against DHS are rioters and terrorists
Analysts say that the Iranian government is trying to make a distinction between ordinary protesters and those whom it calls rioters and terrorists, backed by foreign powers. That nuance of messaging, the analysts said, was intended to put pressure on citizens and dissuade them from protesting.
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