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To be fair to last season Wemby had a freak medical incident.
You don't get giftwrapped the greatest NBA prospect since Lebron James (maybe ever) to be still "talking lottery" three years on. So much for the 'I'm glad he is going to the Spurs and not some poverty franchise" argument..
From a historical perspective..
Pre-Lebron Cavs season: (17-65)
Year 1 Lebron Cavs : (35-65) (+18 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 2 Lebron Cavs: (42-40) (+7 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 3 Lebron Cavs: (50-32) (+8 wins) (4th seed) (def. Wizards 4-2 R1; lost to Pistons 3-4 in ECSF)
Pre-Anthony Davis Pelicans season: (21-45)
Year 1 Anthony Davis Pelicans: (27-55) (+6 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 2 Anthony Davis Pelicans: (34-48) (+7 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 3 Anthony Davis Pelicans: (45-37) (+11 win) (8th seed) (lost 0-4 to Warriors in R1)
Pre-Doncic Mavs season: (24-58)
Year 1 Doncic Mavs: (33-49) (+9 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 2 Doncic Mavs*: (43-32) (+10 wins) (7th seed) (lost 2-4 to Clippers in R1)
Year 3 Doncic Mavs* : (42-30) (-1 wins)(5th seed) (lost 3-4 to Clippers in R1)
* (Covid season)
Pre-Wembanyama Spurs season: (22-60)
Year 1 Wembanyama Spurs: (22-60) (+0 wins) (missed the playoffs)
Year 2 Wembanyama Spurs: (34-48) (+12 wins) (missed the playoffs)
The reality is: it is starting to look extremely awkward from an organizational standpoint. If/when Flagg makes the playoffs before Wemby does, expect a complete change of tune vis-a-vis this franchise in the media and the podcast ecosystem. The chorus of "they are wasting Wemby" will only grow from there..
It is a massive upcoming season. And it is in bent on RC Bufford and Bright Wright to feel the urgency of the situation..
Last edited by spursistan; 07-01-2025 at 05:26 PM.
To be fair to last season Wemby had a freak medical incident.
i dont think spurs were even in the top 10 in the west at the time he went down
Did LeBron or Anthony Davis miss the last 3 months of the season In Their second years?
It is still very much so in the cards.
I believe we were in the race before wemby started feeling the effects of the blood clot (end of december) and this is also pre-fox.
We were in the play-in race last year before he got injured but still wasn't a guarantee for playin. Close play-in last year for sure. They got better this year so play-in is where they'll likely land. Playoffs there's a chance, but they're not going to be guaranteed playoff team like a top 6. If they're 6th in the league it's an overachievement.
well I think as presently constructed we're a play-in team, but not a surefire playoff team. The plan should be to get in the first round and lose a series.
People can say "oh we were a play-in team last year" all they want, the fact is that all the other teams in the west are getting better.
I feel like people don't remember that Wembanyama missed like half the season.
I think the difference is the NBA was geared more or less towards the playstyle of those players when they essentially flourished.
Wemby, generational talent as he is, 7'5 who can shoot threes and block shots - is still playing a position that has been long touted to be a hard one to fit in the modern NBA. It's harder to build around Wemby, as it is around LeBron, Luka, Shai, or Steph. We'll see our front office can build the right pieces around him though, or maybe even have him as a 1B (realistically speaking).
Spurs were 21-25 with wemby last year
Getting KD was probably the only move securing us an outright playoffs spot (5th-6th seed).Whatever else we're doing, it's going to be a 7th-10th placing. Looks like they are going to ride with that risk..
And this is exactly what will happen if they don't start taking seriously the overall lack of shooting of the roster.
Last edited by DAF86; 07-01-2025 at 06:38 PM.
15-15 at Christmas which is where I consider the wemby sickness cutoff
mitch already said that anything before the ASB would be "reaching" as it relates to the DVT
We have eyes, we all saw what happened in january.
Early West power rankings
TIER 1 (+55 wins)
1-OKC
2-Houston
TIER 2 (50-54 wins)
3-Denver
4- Minnesota
TIER 3 (45-49 wins)
5- Lakers
6- Warriors
7- Clippers
TIER 4 (40-44 wins)
8- Spurs
9-Dallas
10- Memphis
Tier 5 (Sub-40 wins Lottery)
11- Pelicans
12- Suns
13- Kings
Tier 6 (Sub-30 wins Lottery)
14- Blazers
15- Jazz
* Spurs path to higher seed is few injuries setbacks to the 2 old teams above them (Clippers/GSW)
Last edited by spursistan; 07-01-2025 at 04:23 PM.
Tier 3 teams are overrated with Lakers and Warriors being fundamentally flawed.
Unless major moves happen, I'd be disappointed if we finish below either.
Mavs and Grizzlies are easily better than those veteran teams.
It definitely takes some squinting through rose-tinted homer glasses to get there but...
- Wemby stays healthy and takes leap forward becoming a legit top 5-10 player in the league.
- Fox shows that last year's medicore play was almost entirely related to his hand issues. He proves he's still a top 25-35 type guy in the league and the PnR game with Wemby is dominant.
- Castle takes a step forward in his sop re season and a smaller, more natural role on offense allows his efficiency to jump + defense takes a step forward.
- Harper is as good as advertised and immediately comes in and helps out.
- Vassell actually looks like an efficient player with his smaller role + shows some of the defensive abilities people thought he had when he was drafted.
- Sochan somehow manages to be a respectable shooter from deep (35% on modest volume, doesn't hesitate every time he's left open).
- Kornet is one of the best backup bigs in the league and gives us 48 minutes of elite interior defense with Wemby.
- New coaching additions transform the team's strategy (particularly on defense with Sweeney/Williamson) and push us forward.
Now...all of those things happening simultaneously would probably have the same likelihood as me winning the lottery. That being said, something like 5 or 6 of the 8 bullet points I listed happening is a little more reasonable and would probably result in us being at least a 45ish win team and a legitimate playoff (not play-in) team.
I still don't love the FO's view of seemingly banking on all of the above rather than being a little more aggressive, but I can somewhat understand it. Just still holding out hope we make at least one other somewhat meaningful move.
We've seen it in the playoffs. Warriors are always a Curry sprained ankle away from going on a 3-10 tailspin. Clippers are better built to manage Kawhi's unavailability. I think injuries will always play role when the margins are this thin in the middle of the conference..
I don't think we're better than the Lakers/Warriors right now tbh. I'd have to see Wemby take another leap to start the year before I feel good about that call.
Tier 1 - Playoff Locks
OKC
MIN
DEN
HOU
Tier 2 - Enough talent to get out of play in
Warriors
Lakers
Clippers
Mavs
Grizz
Tier 3 - Play In Contenders
Spurs
Blazers
Pelicans
It's just going to be another bloodbath in the West this year tbh.
Both teams have size issues with tier1/2/4 teams all having great frontcourts.
Every additional year for those 35+ veterans is another decline.
Obviously we haven't proven , but I like Mavs and even Grizzlies better than Warriors/Lakers.
Mavs in Tier 3. No Kyrie this year. Rookie Cooper and injury-prone AD.
I'll be happy if spurs finish .500 regardless of where it puts them seedwise
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