Spurs Select F Jeremy Sochan with the 9th Pick in the 2022 NBA Draft

[scott]

Good food for thought ambchang and I always appreciate some data backing up the discussion.

From my POV on the points you mentioned:

BBIQ - this is where I just don't see it for Sochan, but others seem to (though plenty seem to see it more like I do). He tends to do things that just don't make any sense at any level of basketball. We'll see him dribble into the paint with nowhere to go, turn his back to the basket like he's expecting to have collapsed the D and be able to find a shooter standing wide open at the 3 point line. When that doesn't materialize he either dribbles out and resets or makes a bail out pass. Either way, it completely disrupts the flow of the possession. He seems to do this several times per game.

This alone isn't some unforgiveable shortcoming, but it's indicative of what seems (to me at least) to have a complete lack of understanding of offensive fundamentals. Sometimes he's a complete zero on offense, other times he's actively a negative force on the offensive end. He's effective as a dunker/cutter/roller but that's it. If he isn't doing one of those things, he's just in the way or providing the defense an opportunity to sag off and play 5 on 4.

Defense - here is a case where I think your stats are a bit misleading. I think Sochan is a much better defender than your stats suggest. There is a probably a bit of sample bias at play here, as Sochan is drawing tougher matchups and thus is going to give up a higher oppFG% because he's going against the opposing team's best scorer. He seems to have mental lapses from time to time, but I'm willing to chalk that up to youth. Overall, he's a very good 1v1 defender, IMO. I wouldn't dare make an argument otherwise.

Passing - that's some interesting data you brought. With Fox, Castle and Harper now on the team, however, I wonder how much Sochan's PnR ballhandling is going to matter going forward? Still a nice skill to have, but I'd much rather have one of those guys running the PnR. I don't know that his passing is a pro or a con at this point... but it kind of goes with the BBIQ discussion. He certainly isn't a playmaker.

Finishing - he's gotten better, no doubt about it. I posted this previously, but his shot diet heavily skews towards shots 0-3 ft from the basket (55% of his shots last season, compared to 34% the prior two seasons). This is the cause of his drastically improved FG% (and he's actually stagnated or gotten worse at shooting from every other distance). Sochan shot .707 from 0-3 feet, which sounds great but is only a little bit above the league average of .696. (Wemby was .809, and CP3 was .800, as an example). With that said, he has gotten much better here. His first two seasons were .665 and .659.

To me, absent a huge leap from Sochan, I have a hard time seeing him as anything more than a bench defensive specialist. I don't think there is anything wrong with this. IMO, that's all Lu Dort would be if he couldn't shoot. It's what Alex Caruso is (and he can shoot).

[spurraider21]

i think the reason Sochan gets the "BBIQ and passing" talk still comes from his draft profile/scouting report when his passing was one of the big selling points for him, and why people thought he had draymond-lite potential.

the reality is, it hasnt really borne out in the NBA. and even if he theoretically is capable of making good passes, either with anticipation or good placement, he doesnt have the court awareness to execute them anyway. he still dribbles with his head down too often and doesnt seem to have a plan. and its not like we have much of a track record of him making quick decisions, ie in the short roll, or making a crisp extra pass off a cut

his man to man defense, particularly against wings, is quite good. however, he doesnt offer anything by way of rim protection, and generally speaking doesnt stand out as a help defender. and he certainly doesnt play SG/SF on offense, so you are having to cross match with him basically being a PF/C on one end, and a SF on the other end. its why its hard to make lineups work, and as the spurs dont have guards who are high end shooters, virtually impossible

[LeBowen]

BBIQ - this is where I just don't see it for Sochan, but others seem to (though plenty seem to see it more like I do). He tends to do things that just don't make any sense at any level of basketball. We'll see him dribble into the paint with nowhere to go, turn his back to the basket like he's expecting to have collapsed the D and be able to find a shooter standing wide open at the 3 point line. When that doesn't materialize he either dribbles out and resets or makes a bail out pass. Either way, it completely disrupts the flow of the possession. He seems to do this several times per game.

This alone isn't some unforgiveable shortcoming, but it's indicative of what seems (to me at least) to have a complete lack of understanding of offensive fundamentals. Sometimes he's a complete zero on offense, other times he's actively a negative force on the offensive end. He's effective as a dunker/cutter/roller but that's it. If he isn't doing one of those things, he's just in the way or providing the defense an opportunity to sag off and play 5 on 4.

Spot on.
Basketball has two types of players who can make positive contribution as ballhandlers:
A) Natural playmakers who don't even need to think about what's going on and what's going to happen next, they just make decisions on the fly.
B) Forcibly (maybe not the right word, but whatever) developed playmakers who aren't naturals and therefore they just go with the set play knowing their next 3 actions before they even make them because they're incapable of processing what's going on on the fly.

Jeremy is the B type that plays like A type with the ball.
Opponents scheme against him by baiting him to dribble into the paint because it's really to stop and then he just s up because he can't make the right decision. He should never be dribbling the ball into the paint unless he has a big mismatch because he has no post moves, either. I'd like for someone to find more than a handful of situations where Jeremy finished over someone with similar size, it just doesn't happen.

Finishing - he's gotten better, no doubt about it. I posted this previously, but his shot diet heavily skews towards shots 0-3 ft from the basket (55% of his shots last season, compared to 34% the prior two seasons). This is the cause of his drastically improved FG% (and he's actually stagnated or gotten worse at shooting from every other distance). Sochan shot .707 from 0-3 feet, which sounds great but is only a little bit above the league average of .696. (Wemby was .809, and CP3 was .800, as an example). With that said, he has gotten much better here. His first two seasons were .665 and .659.

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/163...Regular+Season
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631110/shooting

Take away all the easy baskets and his finishing is subpar. The only actually good contribution he makes on offense is being a good offensive rebounder and a threat opponents need to always have in mind when a miss happens.

[scott]

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/163...Regular+Season
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631110/shooting

Take away all the easy baskets and his finishing is subpar. The only actually good contribution he makes on offense is being a good offensive rebounder and a threat opponents need to always have in mind when a miss happens.

Only 59% on layups. I don't know if this is good or bad... but it doesn't sound good. Wonder how it compares to the rest of the league.

[LeBowen]

Only 59% on layups. I don't know if this is good or bad... but it doesn't sound good. Wonder how it compares to the rest of the league.

Above average, but combine it with other variables and it looks way worse.
74% of his layups were assisted.
63% of his FGs were after no dribbles, 15% after 1 dribble.
71% were within 2 seconds of receiving the ball.

He's a finisher, but how many of those easy baskets come at an expense of everyone else being defended tighter because Jeremy can't shoot or create for himself?
As in opponents will gladly give up a couple of easy layups to Jeremy who's the least threatening player on offense if it means they can have better contests on everyone else in 10 other possessions.

For Jeremy to become a positive on offense, the number of easy layups has to be enough to make it not worth it for the opponetns to sag off him.
Or he can just lear to shoot.

[exstatic]

if he's a good player then why dont he play good

Perhaps the expectations are high for a guy who learned basketball in England from his mom, and didn’t start on his college team. Sochan was always a big swing, a raw prospect, and those normally take longer to cook.

[mystargtr34]

At this point is the consensus that the Spurs don’t offer Jeremy a deal this summer (unless it’s a lowball offer) and let him play out his fourth season and then make a decision on the contract offer next summer?

I don’t see any other scenario happening.

[ambchang]

Most of our points are pretty much aligned, I think.

I actually don't think Sochan is some sort of high IQ, defensive savant and the second coming of Dennis Rodman and Draymond Green's lovechild, sprinkled with Diaw's offensive DNA, I think he is a good 1 on 1 defensive player (with the potential to be an elite perimeter defender), average team defender, who is a negative on offence.

What I think I defer from most views are:
1) I believe a le contender does not require the top 7 or 8 players to be flawless basketball players. Or in other words, someone who is flawed, even as badly flawed as Sochan on offence, can be a contributor to a le team; and
2) I think this type of perimeter defender, in the right system, could be a very valuable prototype.

Basically, my view is that we all see Sochan in more or less the same light, it's just that our expectations of the role on the Spurs is different.

If Sochan can end up being someone like Caruso or Dort, he would be quite valuable to winning teams.

In terms of bball IQ, again, I believe the Spurs do not need everyone to be a creator. The constant reference to the beautiful game is pretty unrealistic, to be honest. How many teams in the history of the league can play that type of offence? I have the 2014 Spurs, the 1973 Knicks, the 1986 Celtics, and the Walton Blazers, that's it. And that Spurs team played that way because the big three were declining and can no longer single-handedly carry a championship offence, it was more out of necessity than anything.

The Spurs now have Wemby, Fox, and to an extent Harper and Castle. These guys can score and create if need be, Wemby and Fox can be dominant offensive forces (not championship winning types like the Duncans, Hakeems, Shaqs, Lebrons and Dirks yet, but Wemby's game will come), we only need the supporting players like Castle, Champaigne, Barnes, and yes, Sochan, to just finish the plays. They don't have to create, Sochan shouldn't even be driving the ball to the teeth of the defence in the first place. Why was he doing that in the first place? I think it's more a question to the coaching staff, not only was he doing it, but he was doing it multiple times a game! Shouldn't he have had that coached of him at some point? What were the offensive schemes last year? It would be great if someone can tell me because I watched quite a few games and I couldn't figure it out, there are many stretches where the Spurs seems to be playing high level street ball with no actual game plan. Which goes to the point, it is all fine and good if you are an insane talent like Wemby, or even someone like Fox, but when it goes to role players like Sochan, they struggle. Champaigne played worse as the year went on, even everybody's favourite, Mamu, played worse if you looked at the per minute stats and efficiency. I have been trying to make this point over the season, and it's that there were huge issues with coaching because there was no direction and no accountability, it almost looks amateurish at points last year, and I am a huge PATFO supporter. Coaching helps the role players, superstars will be superstars regardless as they are the system, but the coach's job is to fit those role players around that superstar (wemby) by creating a system where the role players can compliment that superstar. To my untrained, couch-coaching eyes, the Spurs didn't have that.

Also, on the point of finishing, I should've been clear, I should have said pick and roll finishing. And yes, great points about him being able to finish because nobody is really guarding him.

[scott]

At this point is the consensus that the Spurs don’t offer Jeremy a deal this summer (unless it’s a lowball offer) and let him play out his fourth season and then make a decision on the contract offer next summer?

I don’t see any other scenario happening.

The Spurs usually don't do rookie extensions until October, so they may still plan to extend him... I think we have come to the consensus opinion you just laid out because it makes sense. We won't know until the extension deadline though (Oct 21)

[scott]

I largely agree with you ambchang, well stated and summarized.

To me the biggest issue is making sure the Spurs don't overpay for whatever Sochan's eventual role is (which is yet to be determined). People are talking about $18-24MM a year and I don't see it. Sochan could end up anywhere from defensive ace as a starter, to even outside of the Top 7-8 guys you mentioned. If he's our 10th man, that doesn't mean he's still not useful... but he needs to paid like a 10th man because we need to start being smart and active cap managers. The days of willy nilly charity contracts because we had no one else to pay is over.

Fortunately, I don't really see a scenario where the Spurs give him that kind of money unless they are simultaneously moving Vassell. There is just no room for it anymore.

Personally, I wouldn't pay him more than Kornet. In my opinion, Korndog is a more useful and valuable player (IMO). If both were FA at the same time, Sochan might get a bigger deal just because he's young and "raw" but there is a good chance he never becomes as good of a player as Korndog... and that's okay. He may also completely surprise us and become our 5th best player. That would be awesome! I just haven't seen anything to make me believe it at this point.

[rascal]

Sochan is a very limited offensive player because he lacks NBA level athleticism. He can't get past defenders on the dribble, he doesn't jump well for his size, he doesn't have a solid shooting form nor a quick release on his shot so no mid range scoring ability.

[ginobilized]

Playing within a structure is going to make or break Sochan on the Spurs, I believe. Maybe the coaches can find some ways to give him the best chance to succeed, which, is their job, basically. I'd wait and see how Sochan adjusts to the new players, coaches and hopefully a defined role. There have been some intriguing glimpses of a pesky defender and overall disruptor in his game. I think he'd be better suited to a specific role than being some sort of Swiss Army knife. He doesn't have the skill for that. Narrowing down his position to 2/5 possibilities might be a good start from the 5/5 we've seen of late. There is only so much that Sochan can do in one off-season, he is who he is. I think it's on the coaches to give him a fighting chance. Point guard and center have been disasters for him, and, rightfully so.

I wonder what OKC or Carlisle would do with him. Would he even see the floor on those teams?

[poopbox]

]Playing within a structure is going to make or break Sochan on the Spurs[/B], I believe. Maybe the coaches can find some ways to give him the best chance to succeed, which, is their job, basically. I'd wait and see how Sochan adjusts to the new players, coaches and hopefully a defined role. There have been some intriguing glimpses of a pesky defender and overall disruptor in his game. I think he'd be better suited to a specific role than being some sort of Swiss Army knife. He doesn't have the skill for that. Narrowing down his position to 2/5 possibilities might be a good start from the 5/5 we've seen of late. There is only so much that Sochan can do in one off-season, he is who he is. I think it's on the coaches to give him a fighting chance. Point guard and center have been disasters for him, and, rightfully so.

I wonder what OKC or Carlisle would do with him. Would he even see the floor on those teams?

Yeah I guess the one not negative thing you can say about Sochan is he has never played on a properly structured good nba team that has a clearly defined superstar and star player to build an offense around like he has now. So I guess we should see what role he gets slotted into and how he performs in it. Not getting my hopes up though.

[ambchang]

Playing within a structure is going to make or break Sochan on the Spurs, I believe. Maybe the coaches can find some ways to give him the best chance to succeed, which, is their job, basically. I'd wait and see how Sochan adjusts to the new players, coaches and hopefully a defined role. There have been some intriguing glimpses of a pesky defender and overall disruptor in his game. I think he'd be better suited to a specific role than being some sort of Swiss Army knife. He doesn't have the skill for that. Narrowing down his position to 2/5 possibilities might be a good start from the 5/5 we've seen of late. There is only so much that Sochan can do in one off-season, he is who he is. I think it's on the coaches to give him a fighting chance. Point guard and center have been disasters for him, and, rightfully so.

I wonder what OKC or Carlisle would do with him. Would he even see the floor on those teams?

Hard to say as it really depends on a player's ability to adapt, change and fit into the role, but when a guy like Lu Dort, who wasn't particularly skill when he first started his career, and then saw just a transformation in his skill level, I believe Sochan can do something similar.

That said, ability to change is often mixed with willingness to work. Some players are more adaptable than others and can adjust their games, some can't no matter how hard they try. I hope Sochan can to a degree as the Spurs did invest a low lottery pick on him.

Even Parker was given instructions to model his game step by step, stop shooting threes, focus on fast breaks first, work on the mid range, then work on involving the teammates, then work on taking over the offence in the paint, the entire change in his game took a decade.

Manu was getting chewed out for his wild plays and had to have that coached out of him (to an extent) over multiple years, and of course Pop just finally relented and understood he had to take the good with the bad, but again, Manu's game changed quite a bit over his decade and a half with the team.

For Sochan, not having a defined, limited role, is the worst thing to happen to him. Most players won't be able to grow in such a situation. Then to have him do things he can't do made the worst situation even worse.

[scott]

Hard to say as it really depends on a player's ability to adapt, change and fit into the role, but when a guy like Lu Dort, who wasn't particularly skill when he first started his career, and then saw just a transformation in his skill level, I believe Sochan can do something similar.

That said, ability to change is often mixed with willingness to work. Some players are more adaptable than others and can adjust their games, some can't no matter how hard they try. I hope Sochan can to a degree as the Spurs did invest a low lottery pick on him.

Even Parker was given instructions to model his game step by step, stop shooting threes, focus on fast breaks first, work on the mid range, then work on involving the teammates, then work on taking over the offence in the paint, the entire change in his game took a decade.

Manu was getting chewed out for his wild plays and had to have that coached out of him (to an extent) over multiple years, and of course Pop just finally relented and understood he had to take the good with the bad, but again, Manu's game changed quite a bit over his decade and a half with the team.

For Sochan, not having a defined, limited role, is the worst thing to happen to him. Most players won't be able to grow in such a situation. Then to have him do things he can't do made the worst situation even worse.

I think what's being described here is one of the biggest costs of tanking, and why when teams exit from tank territory they usually don't bring their former tank commanders along with them (as the Spurs are attempting to do). It's not necessarily Keldon, Devin and Jeremy's fault that they were forged in the fires of inep ude: a system with no organization or accountability... that inep ude was "needed" at the time to fulfill the plan... but it's hard to change them after that's how they developed.

The Spurs are trying to go against convention and hope their former tank commanders can be useful winners. Let's see how it works out!

[TeKu]

I think what's being described here is one of the biggest costs of tanking, and why when teams exit from tank territory they usually don't bring their former tank commanders along with them (as the Spurs are attempting to do). It's not necessarily Keldon, Devin and Jeremy's fault that they were forged in the fires of inep ude: a system with no organization or accountability... that inep ude was "needed" at the time to fulfill the plan... but it's hard to change them after that's how they developed.

The Spurs are trying to go against convention and hope their former tank commanders can be useful winners. Let's see how it works out!

Maybe it's a factor, but Dort was with the Thunder through their tank years too, found his niche and how to contribute to winning.

Keldon as tank commander yes, but not sure that could ever be applied to Sochan.

I can still squint and see an Aaron Gordon like path for Sochan. With the creation around him this year he has every opportunity to progress towards that. And we need exactly that, so I'd expect him to be given the space, and contract, with that in mind.

[scott]

Maybe it's a factor, but Dort was with the Thunder through their tank years too, found his niche and how to contribute to winning.

Keldon as tank commander yes, but not sure that could ever be applied to Sochan.

I can still squint and see an Aaron Gordon like path for Sochan. With the creation around him this year he has every opportunity to progress towards that. And we need exactly that, so I'd expect him to be given the space, and contract, with that in mind.

The Thunder were a playoff team Dort's rookie year, tanked for 2 years, then were a compe ive team again in his 4th year (40 wins). Keldon and Devin were on two weak play-in teams (33 and 34 wins), but I don't think the Thunder's downswing (3 year playoff drought) is quite comparable to ours (6 years and counting)