One American loses their job for every 6 immigrants removed from the workforce as researchers see ‘no evidence’ that ICE is helping the economy
Donald Trump said he had been given a “mandate” by the electorate when he returned to office last year, with one of his charges being to enact mass deportations. Most of his voters seemed to agree, with immigration often topping Republican priorities heading into the 2024 election.
Most Americans still support a heavy hand on illegal immigration. Almost nine out of 10 Republicans and independents who lean Republican say they want a strong military presence on the border, according to recent Pew polling, with a large majority also supporting stricter entry controls such as allowing immigration officers to review social media accounts.
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Many workers who were born in the U.S. benefited from a complementary immigrant workforce that supported parts of their industry, according to a study by researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder and published last week by the National Bureau of Economic Research. But with the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown over the past year, largely mediated through ICE, at least 1.2 million foreign-born workers have left the labor force, dismantling the structure that supported native-born jobs too.
“Heightened ICE activity is harming the labor market overall, and we find no evidence that it is benefiting U.S.-born workers,” Chloe East, one of the study’s authors, said in a statement. “If anything, job opportunities for U.S.-born workers are going down as a result.”
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The more realistic outcome is what businesses usually do when a labor supply dries up: scale back their operations.
The construction industry is already a strong case in point, as East’s study found that the employment rate for U.S.-born workers in construction has dipped 3% because of ICE activity. Last year, almost half of construction firms attributed project delays to labor shortages, according to a survey by the Associated General Contractors of America, a trade association. Nearly 30% of firms said the administration’s immigration enforcement had contributed to their staffing woes.
“There is a common narrative out there that mass deportations will free up job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, but numerous studies, including ours, have shown that is false,” said East. “If a construction company can’t find laborers, they’re going to take on less work and hire fewer people overall.”
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