Reply With Quote
Iran threatening ships using Oman's alternate routes
Just the threat might be enough to make the ships uninsurable unless they use Iranian controlled routes
this was last week
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...am/ar-AA25TllcPresident Trump said Wednesday that oil reserves could have run out in four weeks if the Strait of Hormuz were not opened.
“We run out of reserves at about four weeks,” Trump said in France while at the Group of Seven summit, discussing the recent memorandum of understanding with Iran. “You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out, and there’ll be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it.”
Iran threatening ships using Oman's alternate routes
Just the threat might be enough to make the ships uninsurable unless they use Iranian controlled routes
Escalation trap
Iran knows Trump knows the energy cliff is a few weeks away and that escalating right now could mean Great Depression 2.0
And also that not escalating would be humiliating for Trump
“.. A U.S. official, who spoke anonymously in order to share details of the strike, said the vessel had been hit by a drone.”
Yep. This is their revenge.
Black President was better.
it's not even close
our got rekt
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-eas...hrain-e87bbca3When the Iranian missiles and drones came for the nerve center of America’s naval operations in the Middle East, some of them hit their mark.
The U.S. Navy base in Bahrain was repeatedly targeted between late February and June. Strikes that got through caused extensive damage, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of satellite imagery, social-media footage and interviews with current and former servicemembers—damage that the Pentagon hasn’t publicly acknowledged. Hit hard were the command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings, along with two satellite communications terminals.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/w...n-mideast.html
what "tank bottoms" means
https://nickwade.substack.com/p/two- es-comingWhen inventory falls below the operational limits (~20mb) – which Cushing has now breached, at 19mb – the hub enters a stress zone rather than hitting a cliff edge. The operational minimum is not a precise failure point; it is the threshold below which there is no buffer left to absorb further stress. The immediate effects are mechanical.
Pipelines that draw from Cushing operate on pressure differentials, but inventories at this level do not cause pipelines to fail instantaneously. What deteriorates first is scheduling reliability, the ability to guarantee volume and timing. Refineries that depend on Cushing lose the flexibility to absorb disruptions or respond to demand es. They are forced to draw on their own tank inventory as a buffer, but those buffers are also depleted.
Blending flexibility deteriorates with it, because the crude that remains at tank bottoms is the lowest quality and pulling it through creates blending problems. Cushing’s core function is blending different grades from the Permian, Bakken, and Canadian streams to meet pipeline quality specifications and refinery feedstock requirements. When you’re scraping the bottom, blending optionality narrows significantly, so refineries either accept degraded feedstock or reduce runs.
The financial effect then follows. WTI physically settles at Cushing, and when physical delivery becomes constrained, physical tightness increasingly dominates futures pricing. You get extreme backwardation and basis blowouts as buyers scramble for physical barrels that can’t be reliably delivered. The WTI-Brent spread would likely widen – the US price and the global price decouple – and with US export capacity under pressure, nothing is left to hold Brent down.
Midwest refineries are the most exposed because they are dependent on pipelines from Cushing and have limited alternative supply access. Gulf Coast refineries theoretically have more flexibility as they can draw waterborne imports, but they are already running at record utilisation. US crude exports have run at record levels since March, with the Gulf Coast processing additional crude to produce the diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline that Middle Eastern and Asian refineries could no longer supply at normal volumes as Gulf feedstock flows through Hormuz collapsed. That additional throughput has been draining Cushing. The crude draw and the product export are the same event viewed from different ends of the supply chain.
The broader consequence is that Cushing operational stress would convert a global supply disruption into a US domestic supply disruption simultaneously.
That is the first e.
The second follows when the global restocking wave arrives. Most major economies have been drawing strategic reserves throughout this crisis – the IEA coordinated a 400 million barrel release across member nations, Japan and South Korea have drawn their modest reserves steadily, and Europe has done the same to varying degrees. China’s position is opaque – Beijing does not publish reserve levels transparently – but the working assumption is that Chinese reserves have also been drawing to keep refineries running through the Hormuz disruption, given that China normally takes roughly 20% of Gulf crude and its total imports are well down.
When those draws exhaust, every country needs to restock simultaneously. They will all be competing for the same barrels at the same moment, in a market where Hormuz throughput remains well below pre-war levels and the recons ution sequence – demining, tanker repositioning, hull fouling, refinery feedstock switching – has barely begun. Reopening is not restoration, but the market continues to treat it as though it were.
The shape of the financial fallout is therefore probably two distinct repricing events rather than one continuous move. The market has been reactive and consistently wrong in the dovish direction throughout this crisis. It priced the Islamabad MOU as restoration. It priced the 70-vessel day on June 24 as recovery, when it was just clearing the stranded queue backlog. It will price the first e as the peak. Then the restocking demand will appear and the market will price that shortage separately, when it can no longer be ignored.
Two es. Two moments of forced repricing, each preceded by the same premature relief. Brent at $70 tells you the market thinks the crisis is over. But it isn’t. Brent at $70 instead tells you the market hasn’t looked at what comes next.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-eas...hrain-e87bbca3
The extensive damage done to America’s sole naval base in the Middle East—along with hits to at least 20 U.S. sites across the region, including military installations and diplomatic facilities—has the U.S. re-evaluating its entire footprint in the region, according to U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations.
...
The military is now considering revamping the base in Bahrain, reducing the U.S. presence in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and moving some bases or base functions west, farther from the reach of Iranian missiles and drones, according to the officials familiar with the deliberations.
...
“We defended our installations admirably, but the munitions that got through hit infrastructure required for us to conduct operations,” said Dr. Ravi Chaudhary, a former assistant secretary of the Air Force. “This is the byproduct of 10 years of Iran adapting its strike technologies for greater range and accuracy.”
The decisions the U.S. makes now—what to reconstruct, what to abandon, how far to pull back—will define its presence in the Middle East for a generation.
BERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - Lufthansa is preparing to ground up to 40 jets due to a jet fuel shortage, Spiegel reported on Friday.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/24/polit...ar-powers-voteOne day after adopting a resolution aimed at removing US military forces from the conflict with Iran, the Senate walked back its rebuke of President Donald Trump’s handling of the war, rejecting an attempt to advance a similar war powers measure.
Trump went in and bullied Cassidy and Paul and of course those spineless bootlicks fell in line.
LOL Trump begging
Obviously he'll threaten again before the TACO is engaged.
The Truth Social post in question rather con uously contained no threat at all, just an accusation of rules broken
No threat, no taco imho
I think the threat will come a little later still
no threat given, but the US apparently did wait for markets to close
Senior US official said US military has begun striking Iranian targets in response to Iranian breach of MOU and ceasefire and attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.-Fox News
hopefully by Sunday night the ceasefire will be back on
has a for tat vibe
US military strikes targeting Iran are complete for tonight, a senior US defense said.
All of the targets (drones, radar and missiles) were along the Strait of Hormuz, US official said.-Fox News
And by Monday morning Trump will declare we made another great deal
hmm....
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards: U.S. forces assaulted Sirik Island, Iran pushed back attack
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ck-2026-06-26/Iran's Revolutionary Guards on Saturday #said it targeted U.S. military positions in the region, in response to a fresh U.S. strike against Iran.
The Guards did not provide details on the U.S. positions it targeted in the region.
"ceasefire management" is up there with "defensive strikes"
There are currently 2 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 2 guests)
Posting Permissions
