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so we escalate
what's the path to victory?
shortages, inflation, demand destruction and recession become more probable the longer this war drags on
so we escalate
what's the path to victory?
historically, punishment campaigns don't work
why will it work this time?
YEMEN'S HOUTHIS ARE REPORTEDLY PREPARING TO SHUT THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT ON BEHALF OF IRAN. THE WATERWAY CARRIES ROUGHLY 10–12% OF GLOBAL MARITIME TRADE
Last edited by Winehole23; 2 Days Ago at 07:36 AM.
escalation trap
reportedly this took about 13% of Kuwait's water supply offline
losing the Daily Caller
shortages, inflation, demand destruction and recession become more probable the longer this war drags on
This is already built in. Shutting in wells becomes harder to reverse as you go along. sooner or later you have to cap wells, and getting the oil field back up and running to where it was before is months to years.
Even if they stopped tomorrow, which seems remote to put it charitably, AND they had all the tankers ready to go in and resume shipment, which they are not, AND there no mines, it would still take months to get that oil to the places it used to go (Asia mostly). THEN you would have to fill up storage at refineries to spin them back up, THEN you would still have to refill all those strategic reserves that have been severly depleted. This process will take YEARS, at best.
Oil is going to be expensive for a while, and when the national reserves reach their bottom pretty soon, they will not be able to subsidize supply. Then you can expect north of 100 easy, potentially over 200.
Coupled with the disintegration of the russian empire, which will take that oil off the market likely for decades, due to the nature of their siberian production. Russia was already facing a slow spiral due to de-industrialization and rank corruption, and a collapsing demography, it seems likely that they will never recover from the damage being done by their pointless war.
s gonna get bleak, yo.
wife and I have played unofficial foster parents to a small number of young people through accidents of happenstance. One of those kids joined the military, and is now a diesel mechanic in an ADA unit in Quwait(?). He describes them as being "busy", and some of that is targeted at them specifically. So, I worry. Went to his tech training graduation, and those kids are so very young. I was a decade older than the most senior NCO I met.
Stupid war waged by a stupid, evil man.
The only way the US wins, is instatement of the draft, invasion and long term occupation of Iran.
Theoretically possible, in the way that a landslide could theoretically spontaneously assemble a functional 747.
Best case scenario for all involved, including the US would have been the US surrender, which was what the MOU was.
Now, that is out the window. We have conclusively shown to be not worth negotiating with.
One strong feature of persian culture is that they view struggle against injustice as worth giving ones life for, to what I have been told by someone who I kind of trust to know. This war is tailor made to appeal to that.
There is no path to US "victory" here. The best we can hope for would pre-war status quo, but Iran is going to use its grip on the SOH to extract rent on all ships, so we pretty much lost from the first shot, which is what every wargame we ever tested out said would happen, and why no president has been stupid enough to try. Netenyahu got exactly the war he wanted to prop himself up indefinitely. Trump the rube.
Saudis will scramble to build pipelines and charge fees to the quwaitis et al to get around this. Again, years before pre-war flows.
Easy answerlosing the Daily Caller
If Trump declares we need boots on the ground and activates a draft, the Republicans can kiss a whole lot of mid terms goodbye
it appears some people have made a lot of money off knowing what Trump was going to say beforehand
I wonder if Trump got a cut
https://abcnews.com/US/doj-probing-2...y?id=132738007
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