Hollinger's Team Forecast: Dallas Mavericks

[monosylab1k]

2006-07 Recap
It was a dream season in Dallas. Motivated by the loss to the Heat in the Finals the previous June, the Mavs tore through the league en route to 67 regular-season wins, posting the 10th-best record in NBA history. Dirk Nowitzki won the MVP award, Josh Howard made his first All-Star team, and in the spring the Mavs cruised to …

… a six-game smackdown by 8th-seeded Golden State???

Huh???

Never has a team's postseason been so incongruous with its first 82 games. Nowitzki, who had the league's top PER among those who played at least 60 contests, was a disaster against Golden State, closing with one wide-open brick after another in the blowout loss in Game 6. Meanwhile, the Mavs' stingy defense suddenly became befuddled by the likes of Stephen Jackson and Matt Barnes.

But take a step back and look at the Mavs' season, and you'll see the Golden State series was part of a more general decline over the final months. To review, Dallas lost its first four games of 2006-07, then went on a ridiculous, unbelievable, unfathomable 50-5 tear to run away with the league's best record.

But from that point on, the Mavericks didn't play nearly as well. I don't say that just because they went "only" 17-6 the rest of the way, but also because of how that record was compiled. Starting on March 12, they had a 17-point loss to Golden State that offered an omen for the postseason. Then they lost to Phoenix before ripping off another nine-game win streak.

But this nine-game streak was done mostly with smoke and mirrors. Dallas won by 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 points, even though only two of the opponents had winning records. And Nowitzki, for all his brilliance, was decidedly less brilliant in the season's final two months.

In April, things got worse. The Mavs played five games against playoff teams and lost four of them -- the only win coming in the infamous Joey Crawford game when San Antonio's Tim Duncan was ejected before halftime. The other contests were a 22-point drubbing by Phoenix, a 75-71 snoozer in Denver, a 15-point loss to Utah and a 29-point blowout by Golden State.

The last game marked one of two odd late-season choices by coach Avery Johnson. It was the second-to-last game of the season and the Mavs could have helped eliminate their nemesis from the Bay with a win. But Johnson rested his starters and played all his scrubs that night -- it was never clear why, but Golden State won by 29 and that win helped the Warriors clinch a playoff spot.

C'est la vie, you might think, except that the Mavs hadn't beaten the Warriors in over a year and seemed a bit freaked out by this. Going up against former mentor Don Nelson, Johnson blinked before the opening tip of Game 1. He opted to start offensively-challenged Devean George and go small, the Mavs scored only 85 points in a defeat, and the tone was set for the whole series.

The late slump explains some of the playoff woes, but even if you look at the full season the 67-win season starts to smell a bit fishy. Normally to win this many games you need to be both lucky and good -- either that or you need Michael Jordan on your team -- and the Mavs were a great example.

They outscored their opponents by 7.2 points per game, which is impressive, but normally teams who do that win 63.5 games, not 67. Dallas won more than its share because it was so fortunate in close contests, going an absurd 20-4 in games decided by five points or fewer. Normally I have to explain to people that this is almost pure luck rather than a sign of clutch ability, but given the Mavs' recent history this sort of goes without saying.

But let's get back to that decision to start George in Game 1, because it reflects an oddity in Dallas' approach that really cost the Mavs in the Golden State series -- the team's habit of genuflecting toward veteran role players.

After the loss to Miami in 2006, somehow the Mavs got it in their head that what they needed was more crumbling 30-something types around their stars. So they went out and picked up George, Greg Buckner and Austin Croshere.

The Mavs doled out 3,382 minutes -- or about 40 minutes a game -- to that trio, and were rewarded with a combined player efficiency ratio (PER) of 9.10. While George and Buckner had some defensive value, it's not much of an exaggeration to say Dallas could have pulled three guys out of the D-League and done just as well.

But these weren't D-League pickups or 10-day contracts -- the Mavs gave up real assets to get these guys. Dallas traded a talented shooting guard in Marquis Daniels to acquire Croshere, and used all of its free-agent dough on Buckner and George.

Worse yet, I sense the Mavs felt they succeeded because of those players, when actually they succeeded in spite of them. So when the going got tough against Golden State, the Mavs instinctively turned to those players instead of turning away -- especially to George and Buckner. Buckner played 44 playoff minutes and scored one measly point, while George saw nearly 20 minutes a night and shot 20 percent for the series with more turnovers than baskets.

The way it ended for the Mavs obviously left a bad taste in their mouths, but let's not forget that for most of the season they were really, really good. Dallas ranked second in the league in offensive efficiency thanks mostly to the incredible efficiency of Nowitzki, who created high-percentage shots while hardly ever turning the ball over. Howard, Jason Terry, Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse -- who had an unexpectedly strong campaign at 32 -- added to the fun, giving the Mavs several scorers who could punish opponents for doubling Dirk.

But one thing Dallas wasn't was a running team. While most casual fans, and some serious ones, still think of this as a freewheeling run-and-gun outfit, the Mavs have been among the league's turtles the past two seasons. Dallas played the league's third-slowest pace last season, preferring to isolate in the half court for Nowitzki, Howard or Stackhouse.

Defensively, the Mavs were nearly as good -- at least until that Golden State thing went down. Dallas finished the season ranked fifth in defensive efficiency, with Johnson taking a page from the Spurs' book by totally cutting off the 3-point line. Only 17.3 percent of opponent shots came from beyond the arc, putting Dallas a close second behind San Antonio, and on those few attempts the Mavs held opponents below the league average at 34.9 percent.

And despite their soft reputation, the Mavs were a very tough interior defensive squad. Dallas had the league's fourth-best defensive rebound rate and ranked eighth in blocks; the one area on D where the Mavs were below average was that they fouled at a much higher rate than the league average, which doesn't exactly reinforce their rep as softies.

While Nowitzki has made great strides on D, nearly all of Dallas' secondary players defended well too. DeSagana Diop is an ace in the middle, Harris will be an all-defense pick as soon as the coaches realize they're allowed to vote for him, and Howard is well above average as well.

Offseason Moves
One reason the Mavs are good every year is that, despite the impulsive impression we may have of Mark Cuban, they do a great job of avoiding knee-jerk overreactions. Believe it or not, the money-to-burn Mavs have a good chance of being under the luxury tax threshold a year from now.

This was the second straight offseason of patience in Dallas, as the Mavs opted to target two needs -- backup shooting guard and backup power forward -- rather than go crazy because of what happened against Golden State. Read between the lines and you'll see the real offseason targets were "replacing Greg Buckner and Devean George," an appropriate change of course after last year's free agents flamed out.

While Dallas has the maximum 15 contracts on hand, the club's work may be unfinished. The Mavs are targeting both P.J. Brown and Chris Webber in free agency, but thus far neither has committed.

-Drafted Nick Fazekas, Reyshawn Terry and Renaldas Seibutis
Fazekas was the result of the Hawks' generosity, as Atlanta gave the Mavs a second-round pick for Anthony Johnson at the trade deadline last season. This was shockingly good news for Dallas, which would have pretty much paid somebody to take Johnson -- he isn't terrible, but he was making nearly $3 million to twiddle his thumbs and costing double that with luxury tax.

Needless to say, the Mavs couldn't believe that somebody would pay them for the trouble. And Fazekas was an inspired pick who should score and rebound at the pro level -- though he slipped in the draft because he can't defend.

Dallas' other two second-round picks went off to Europe, as the Mavs' overcrowded roster flashed a giant "No Vacancy" sign. But watch Terry next year, when he's likely to return to the U.S.

-Re-signed Devean George
I can't decide which amazes me more -- that George opted out of a deal that would pay him $2.2 million this season, or that Dallas gave him a raise to $2.5 million. Yes, he has his uses, but players such as these are fungible commodities. I have no idea why the Mavs value him so highly.

-Re-signed Jerry Stackhouse
One of the oddities of the salary cap is that teams who are already over it have a strong incentive to overpay to keep their better free agents, since it's impossible to replace them once they leave. Seen in that light, Dallas' decision to pay Stackhouse $22 million over the next three years doesn't seem so odd. The Mavs weren't going to be able to replace this production even if they used their full midlevel exception, and had they done so it would have severely limited their options down the road.

-Signed Brandon Bass, waived Pops Mensah-Bonsu
I presume adding Bass was a CYA move in case Webber and Brown blow them off and George loses a step. Otherwise I wonder why they bothered. Bass is still quite young, but has done nothing of note in two seasons with the Hornets and as an undersized power forward is likely to keep taking his lumps. It cost nothing, but he's using up a roster spot and I can't imagine him being in the rotation for real.

- Signed Eddie Jones
At first glance this looks like the typical Mavs move of fawning over a decomposing vet for no reason, but read the fine print. Jones can still play, and Dallas got him cheap. A quality reserve guard who can defend and make jump shots was exactly what the Mavs needed against Golden State last season, and Dallas filled that need using only its biannual exception -- a two-year deal worth $3.8 million.

-Extended Devin Harris
The Mavs gave him a five-year, $42 million deal over the summer, removing any doubt over whether they still view him as their point guard of the future. That seems a wise decision. Though his point guard instincts are questionable at times, Harris already is an elite defender and can be a devastating penetrator at the offensive end. His PERs have been in the top 20 among point guards the past two seasons, and he's still young enough to get substantially better.

-Traded Greg Buckner to Minnesota for Trenton Hassell
Everyone makes mistakes; the good teams make fewer of them, yes, but they also admit them quickly and move on, as the Mavs did here. Hassell can't score, but he's an elite wing defender who might have proven useful against Dwyane Wade two springs ago. Unfortunately, his contract is even worse than Buckner's, but Cuban has shown he can handle the added expense.

Biggest Strength: One-On-One Play
The Mavs are the masters of the isolation, with Nowitzki leading the way. Setting up shop from his office at the top of the key, he can survey the defense before lofting a jumper over smaller defenders or taking bigger ones off the dribble.

But he's far from the only one. Dallas has several players who can wreak havoc if the opponent fails to match up correctly, as Howard, Stackhouse, Terry and Harris all are capable shot creators in individual matchups. Second-year pro J.J. Barea could be another -- his D-League numbers from last season were off the charts.

This is what enabled the Mavs to beat San Antonio in the playoffs two seasons ago, as they were able to take advantage of whatever mismatch presented itself by allowing that offensive player to attack. Conversely, one reason they struggled against the Warriors was that Golden State's lineup matched up so well against everyone besides Nowitzki, and Dirk couldn't find his jumper.

Biggest Weakness: Waiting For April
OK, I'm trying to find something here, but the Mavs are a deep, balanced team that won 67 games last season, so it takes some digging. My first instinct was to say "post offense," but they ranked second in the NBA in offensive efficiency -- how big of a problem can we be talking about? And while Avery Johnson made a few iffy moves last spring, does anyone seriously think he's a bad coach after the way he changed this team around defensively?

No, the Mavs' biggest enemy for the next six months will be between their ears. It's not as if they can improve on 67 wins, but meanwhile they're 2-8 in their last 10 playoff games. Basically, their entire regular season is a dress rehearsal for the playoffs and everybody knows it, so nothing they can do between now and April will mean anything to anyone. Then, once they hit the first pocket of adversity in the postseason, all the questions will start anew.

Outlook
While I still get this uneasy feeling that 2006 was this team's best shot at a ring, one has to give the Mavs as good a chance as anyone of winning the le this season. Dallas will have to do a better job of focusing its energies toward the end of the schedule, as the club seemed to peak too early last season. But there's little question that this team will win 55-60 games and be one of the top five seeds in the Western Conference playoffs.

Even if they aren't as lucky in close games and Nowitzki cools off a bit from his MVP season, the Mavs are likely to make it up by replacing the production of George and Buckner with better players and improvements from the still-developing trio of Howard, Harris and Diop.

The questions will begin anew in the postseason, but in a way this is a sign of what a raging success the Mavs have become -- anything short of a championship is now equated with failure. After the disappointments of the past two springs they seem to be the forgotten contender, but I have them as the third-best team in basketball right now and wouldn't be the least bit shocked if they finally got over the hump this June.


Prediction: 58-24, 3rd in Southwest, 3rd in West (5th seed for playoffs)

[monosylab1k]

After the loss to Miami in 2006, somehow the Mavs got it in their head that what they needed was more crumbling 30-something types around their stars. So they went out and picked up George, Greg Buckner and Austin Croshere.

The Mavs doled out 3,382 minutes -- or about 40 minutes a game -- to that trio, and were rewarded with a combined player efficiency ratio (PER) of 9.10. While George and Buckner had some defensive value, it's not much of an exaggeration to say Dallas could have pulled three guys out of the D-League and done just as well.

But these weren't D-League pickups or 10-day contracts -- the Mavs gave up real assets to get these guys. Dallas traded a talented shooting guard in Marquis Daniels to acquire Croshere, and used all of its free-agent dough on Buckner and George.

And Hollinger points out what I have been saying all along - Avery's refusal to play guys like Marquis Daniels and instead opting for "safe" players like Greg Buckner could be the downfall of this team.

Sure, Buckner and George don't make mistakes....but they also don't make plays. Marquis Daniels, for all his faults, was a PLAYMAKER, something the Mavericks have very little of now. , Adrian Griffin would mix in a big play here and there.

Avery's security blanket issues are gonna kill this team unless he is truly a changed coach. We'll see for sure by the way he handles the "Harris is our PG" situation. If Harris struggles early and Avery gives him the hook and starts playing Terry at PG again, this team is ed because Avery hasn't learned anything.

[stretch]

Buckner defintely didn't make no plays. But George was playing very well, up until he got hurt. But before he got hurt, he was playing at a very high level.

And I'm not sure what makes Hollinger say we gave something up for George. He signed here as a free agent, and it's not like there was anyone else around that was worth picking up. He was basically the best FA out there.

[monosylab1k]

This is the seeding Hollinger is predicting for the West

1. Rockets 61-21
2. Spurs 59-23
3. Suns 54-28
4. Nuggets 53-29
5. Mavericks 58-24
6. Jazz 50-32
7. Lakers 43-39
8. Hornets 39-43

[Chris Childs]

I predict the mavs will win 65+ games...........then choke on a carrot in the second round against the rockets, spurs, or the suns.

[The Franchise]

This is the seeding Hollinger is predicting for the West

1. Rockets 61-21
2. Spurs 59-23
3. Suns 54-28
4. Nuggets 53-29
5. Mavericks 58-24
6. Jazz 50-32
7. Lakers 43-39
8. Hornets 39-43

I think that nobody should be above the Spurs. Until they are dethroned they are the Champs and should be treated as such. Nuggets over the Mavericks and Jazz is a bit much. I know putting the Rockets at 1 is a little bogus but i can dream right?

[Findog]

Blah Blah Blah Mavs are psychologically damaged Blah Blah Blah won't know anything until May Blah Blah Blah Can't think of anything else original to write Blah Blah Blah Mavs are psychologically damaged Blah Blah Blah

[monosylab1k]

I think that nobody should be above the Spurs. Until they are dethroned they are the Champs and should be treated as such. Nuggets over the Mavericks and Jazz is a bit much. I know putting the Rockets at 1 is a little bogus but i can dream right?

I think it's Nuggets over the Mavs only because of the playoff seeding, since he has Houston and SA both finishing better than Dallas in their division.

[Xylus]

This is the seeding Hollinger is predicting for the West

1. Rockets 61-21
2. Spurs 59-23
3. Suns 54-28
4. Nuggets 53-29
5. Mavericks 58-24
6. Jazz 50-32
7. Lakers 43-39
8. Hornets 39-43

That would make for some ridiculously entertaining first-round matchups:

Rockets vs. Hornets - Not much there
Spurs vs. Lakers - Awesome
Suns vs. Jazz - Awesome
Nuggets vs. Mavericks - Pretty awesome

Rockets vs. Mavericks - Awesome
Spurs vs. Suns - Awesome

And any combination of WCF matchups would be awesome, as well.

Unfortunately, I just don't see the Suns or Mavericks finishing with fewer than 60 games, unless a major star goes down for more than a couple of weeks.

[Reggie Miller]

Blah Blah Blah Mavs are psychologically damaged Blah Blah Blah won't know anything until May Blah Blah Blah Can't think of anything else original to write Blah Blah Blah Mavs are psychologically damaged Blah Blah Blah

Yeah, it is kind of funny how no one ever depicts these teams as "really P.O.'d" and "now ready to win by any means necessary." To me, those are the more likely reactions than some sort of bedwetting by their inner children, or whatever.

[monosylab1k]

Yeah, it is kind of funny how no one ever depicts these teams as "really P.O.'d" and "now ready to win by any means necessary."

The Mavericks got that a ton last year, after flaming out against Miami.

After letting it happen again, now is when the "mental" questioning comes up, and I think that's valid and understandable.

[Findog]

Yeah, it is kind of funny how no one ever depicts these teams as "really P.O.'d" and "now ready to win by any means necessary." To me, those are the more likely reactions than some sort of bedwetting by their inner children, or whatever.

Injuries aside, this team is going to win 55+ games and get a top four seed. Beyond that, they should just concentrate on having fun and not giving a what anybody says, other than playing with a middle finger extended towards their critics.

I mean, how the are you supposed to answer this kind of questioning?

"Wow, that was some meltdown against Golden State, huh? How could you ever recover from that? Don't you think there will be permanent scars and issues from that?"

[icem]

i think the nuggets would beat the mavs in a series

[StylisticS]

i think the nuggets would beat the mavs in a series

I don't. I think the Mavs match up pretty well with them. That said, it would be a tough series.

[SpursDynasty]

Finally, a writer who agrees with what I've said all along: Dallas' 67 wins are "fake". They just got some lucky bounces to go down.

I predict Dallas will go 53-29.