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I'll deal with the miracle if it happens when it happens. I'm pretty confident that its not going to happen.
I"ll give you 99:1 odds on a bet. You game?
Okay, if you say so.
But what happens if she is? It's still more than possible.
I would advise Obamicans to go to that convention in Denver and make their feelings known. By force if necessary. Do not let that sleazy Clinton steal your man's nomination.
I'll deal with the miracle if it happens when it happens. I'm pretty confident that its not going to happen.
I"ll give you 99:1 odds on a bet. You game?
Ok
Hillary is bitter and she wants Obama to lose the general. So she's gonna stay in the race as long as she can and drag his name through the mud as much as she can. She know she's not getting the nom so after the general she can rub it in everyones face that we should have picked her even though its gonna be her fault that he's gonna have less than 6 months to rally the dems, and start running against McCain. It's really a brilliant plan on her part but its not so great for the democratic party.
I think if she loses NC then she'll drop out. If she also loses IN she won't have a choice. But if she wins both she won't drop out. It may be over mathmatically but she won't drop out. At least I don't think she will.
Yeah, I'm sure she has some super secret game plan and is just waiting to bust it out to pull out the miracle come from behind wind at the last second.
Joe, she's had game plans the entire way. Thats what a campaign is. The thing is, they're LOSING game plans or else she'd actually be ahead in the delegates. Whether or not she cares about the delegates is irrelevant. Barak is going to get them and there's pretty much nothing she can do (apparently) to stop it.
She's lost, just because she hasn't acknowledged it and just because the media hasn't held her accountable doesn't change the reality of the delegate math one bit.
I still say she'll be president one day but it won't be this year.
I concur. I've thought about that as well. Obama will be so damaged he'll lose to McCain and she'll be smiling all the way and will go after McCain in 4 years.
Manny only a fool would understimate the power and pull of the Clintons. They have pulled more than one rabbit out of their hats going back to the governing days. I suggest you study up.
If Hillary wins the democratic nod Manny i want you to request Heath Ledger is my daddy to be put under your avatar for 6 months. If she doesn't win i will do the same.
I get to choose your le. I want something better than that lame . Easiest bet ever.
She's not dropping out. She's not only going to lose NC she's going to get destroyed. IN is even money either way, but it really doesn't matter.
99:1 is quite long. I'd put it at almost even money at this point, maybe a hair toward Obama.
But don't think that Clinton and her supporters will stand by and let this guy just make off with her nomination. First of all, he's the kind of eastern intellectual uber-lib that tends to get smeared in national elections, and he's insulted quite a few of the "Jacksonian" patriotic, working-class union men that vote Democratic. I'm not sure how many of them wouldn't prefer McCain to Obama this cycle.
Yet ... if your man Obama gets the nod, I don't see how the situation improves. Will Obamaniacs swallow their mantra of "change" and cast their vote for Hillary, who everyone knows is "same old same old"?
Quite a dilemma. And there will be blood either way.
Yes, the Clintons are all about themselves. Surprise, surprise.
It's too late. Even if Clinton quit today and went home, it wouldn't change the issue much, because I suspect there is a large chunk of Democrat-leaning voters who will think twice before voting for Change We Can Believe In, etc., in the general election.
the nomination campaign, the election campaign, is insanely too long and over-complicated. Yet another, now post-PA, analysis that shows Obama has is very probably locked up:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4...112/307/502085
It's not so brilliant when you consider that tracking polls still have the eventual democratic candidate with a 61% favorable advantage over McCain, plus, by going to her kitchen sink strategy, she has removed herself of ever being considered a running mate for Obama....
Doesn't matter if she stays in or not, the important part is that Obama wins Indiana and that he wins NC convincingly, then you'll see many the remaining supers jump on his campaign bandwagon and put it out of reach for Clinton....the Democratic elders don't wanna see this drag on past June....
Jon Stewart: Hillary's Declining Respect for The Voters..
One has to wonder why doesn't the M$M ever have this kind of analysis of the issues? 'fake' news is becoming more honest and true to 'real' news roots with every passing day....amazing.....
In case you missed it....the WSJ called the race yesterday...
The Democrats Have a Nominee
April 24, 2008; Page A11
So what?
Wall Street JournalOther than ensuring the Greatest Show on Earth will continue, does it matter that Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama Tuesday in Pennsylvania by nine-plus points? Barack Obama is the nominee.
No matter how many kicks the rest of us find in such famously fun primary states as Indiana and South Dakota, it's going to be McCain versus Obama in 2008.
I believe the cement set around the Clinton coffin last Friday. The Obama campaign announced it had received the support of former Sens. Sam Nunn of Georgia and David Boren of Oklahoma. Wonder Land columnist Dan Henninger says despite her primary win in Pennsylvania, it's over for Hillary. (April 23)
Both are what some of us nostalgically call Serious Democrats. They represent what the party was, but is no more: sensible on national security, spending and middle-class values. Obama receiving their imprimatur is like hands reaching out from the graves of FDR, JFK and LBJ to announce: "Enough is enough. This man is your nominee. Go forth and fight with the Republicans." Make no mistake: Superdelegates with sway took notice.
Former Sen. Nunn is sometimes mentioned as a possible running mate for Sen. Obama. In a better world, Sam Nunn (or a David Boren) would have been the party's candidate for president. Such candidacies remain impossible under the iron law of Democratic primary politics: No centrist can secure the party's nomination in a primary system dominated by left-liberal activists. The iron law produces candidacies such as McGovern (1972), Mondale ('84), Dukakis ('88), Gore ('00) or Kerry ('04), who pay so many left-liberal obeisances to win in the primaries that they cannot attract sufficient moderates at the margins to win the general election.
Bill Clinton, who broke that law twice, knows all this. His 1996 triangulation campaign dangled welfare reform and spending restraint. It worked.
Hillary Clinton knows all this. In 2005, just after George W. Bush won re-election buoyed by "moral values" voters, Sen. Clinton reached out to them in a January speech: "the primary reason that teenage girls abstain [from sex] is because of their religious and moral values. We should embrace this." By "we" she meant that voters still wedded to middle-class respectability, say in Ohio, should embrace her.
She has worked hard as a member of the Armed Services Committee to establish her bona fides with general officers, and some have endorsed her. As well, her hedged, equivocal vote "for" the Iraq War was mainly a centrist investment to cash in fall 2008. (The left won't allow it; see iron law above.)
The 2008 nomination was hers. There was no compe ion. She was a lock to run for the roses against the Republican nominee. Republicans must have had this conversation a hundred times back then: "It's Hillary. She's got it. Get over it."
Sam Nunn and David Boren by political temperament should be in her camp. Instead, they threw in with Obama, who calls his campaign "post-partisan," a ludicrous phrase. The blowback at ABC's debate makes clear that Obama is the left's man. So what did Messrs. Nunn and Boren see?
The biggest event was the Clinton Abandonment. In a campaign of surprises, none has been more breathtaking than the falling away of Clinton supporters, loyalists . . . and friends. Why?
Money. Barack Obama's mystical pull on people is nice, but nice in modern politics comes after money. Once Barack proved conclusively that he could raise big-time cash, the Clintons' strongest tie to their machine began to unravel. Today he's got $42 million banked. She's got a few million north of nothing.
But it's more than that. Barack Obama's Web-based fund-raising apparatus is, if one may say so, respectable. The Clintons' "donor base" has been something else.
It is hard to overstate how fatigued Democratic donors in Manhattan and L.A. got during the Clinton presidency to have Bill and Hillary fly in, repeatedly, to sweep checking accounts. The Lincoln Bedroom rental was cheesy. Bill's 60th birthday gala (tickets $60,000 to 500K) was a Clinton fund-raiser. The 1996 John Huang-Lippo-China fund-raising scandal pushed Clinton contributors toward a milieu most didn't need in their lives. Hillary's 2007 Norman Hsu fund-raising scandal was an unsettling rerun of what the donor base could expect from another Clinton presidency.
It was all kind of gross, but the Clintons never seemed to see that. When Obama proved he could perform this most basic function in politics, it was a get-out-of-jail-free card for many Democrats. For some, this may be personal. For others, it is likely a belief that the party's interests lie with finding an alternative to the Clinton saga. One guesses this is what Sam Nunn and David Boren concluded.
Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania prove it won't be easy. Barack Obama himself said Tuesday night, "I'm not perfect." He heads to the nomination freighted with all the familiar Democratic tensions that keep a Sam Nunn off the ballot: race and gender obsessions, semipacifism and you bet, bitter white voters. So be it. For modern Democrats, winning the White House always requires some sort of magic to get near 50%. For the Clintons, that bag is empty. The Democrats have a new magician. It's Obama.
But they don't trust him enough to put the fate of the Country in his hands..
btw, fwiw, exit polls showed PA people who voted Hillary trusted Obama more by a huge margin.
"Houston, we have a problem"!
I will suggest that the "typical white person" is afraid to say they trust Hillary more because typically it would elicit the charge of racism.
The Liberals are going to blow another one. <no pun intended>
I agree. The point is not that Hillary will somehow get enough delegates to beat Obama. The point is that she's picked up enough so that there is not a decisive winner before the convention. Put that together with Obama's aforementioned problems ... and, yes, Denver, we have a problem.
Can super delegates that have already pledged their allegiance to Obama have a change of heart?
Right up until the final vote is taken and then if no one
has a majority of the votes they are free to change again
until someone finally gets all the marbles. (majority of the
vote). Even the pledged votes (those from the states primaries) can change their
votes during the convention.
So Manny, there is a chance some of these Obama delegates decide Hillary is the better candidate, isn't there?
Yes.
And its still over. I wish I could give you an example that you would understand. I've tried posting number, graphs, and I've broken it down for you in order to show you how much of a longshot it is for Clinton to have any shot at the nomination and you all simply don't get it. I've tried to show you a scenario which can only be described as a Clinton wet dream and how much of a longshot it would be at that point and you still don't get it.
This forum is so frustrating at times.
Obama has had some really tough times in the campaign recently - it pretty much cannot get worse than bittergate and his pastor without some serious scandall - yet he's STILL winning the pledged delegates!
But sure - if they all of a sudden start going to her in mind boggling numbers she can win. Also, if Aliens land tomorrow and declare they worship Hilary Clinton she can also win.
Both scenarios are about as likely as the other.
Hey, I'm not as bright as you are.
What happens if the Florida vote counts? And if she does really well in the states that are left? Would that be enough for her to win the popular vote? And if so, what happens then?
This forum is so frustrating at times.
Get over yourself. Seriously.
Obama has had some really tough times in the campaign recently - it pretty much cannot get worse than bittergate and his pastor without some serious scandall
It can get worse. Everything is possible
But sure - if they all of a sudden start going to her in mind boggling numbers she can win. Also, if Aliens land tomorrow and declare they worship Hilary Clinton she can also win.
Both scenarios are about as likely as the other.
All I hear on TV is that it is still race. But you will probably do you best nbadan impression and claim a conspiracy . . .
Yes. I have heard that Obamians are kind of like a cult. I guess Obama's following has some cult-like characteristics: unity under and devotion to a singular person (check), a shared belief that they alone have the truth (check), and the requirement that you don't ask too many tough questions about their man/organization (check). I've run into this last one with Jehovah's Witnesses -- they get very uncomfortable when you show them their old magazines.
And the true believers will stay with a cult through thick and thin. So we ought to expect Obamanics to stay with their man, even to the end. And we should applaud their tenacity.
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