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"we will see two very different teams"
Ex-Spur/current Hornet Melvin Ely said they were the same. I'm confused. Whom to believe?
Series Thoughts: Spurs vs. Hornets Preview
By LJ & Kori Ellis
After disposing of their first round opponents in five games, the San Antonio Spurs and the New Orleans Hornets will battle for a spot in the Western Conference Finals. Starting tonight in Game 1, we will see two very different teams battle in the ultimate test of wills.
The biggest difference between these two teams is age. The Spurs are not only the oldest team in the NBA, they are looking to become the oldest team to ever win an NBA championship. The Hornets, on the other hand, are led by 22-year-old wunderkind Chris Paul.
Paul has arguably been the best player in the NBA this season. With regular season averages of 21.1 points, 11.6 assists and 2.7 steals, Paul has quickly become the best point guard in the NBA. Statistically speaking, Paul has had one of the most dominating seasons in NBA history for a point guard.
Outside of Paul, the Hornets have another All-Star in David West. West is a multifaceted power forward that can beat you from the inside or the outside. The Hornets and Spurs split their regular season meetings, with West averaging 30.5 points per game in the two victories.
The Hornets starting lineup is rounded out by Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler and Morris Peterson. Stojakovic is one of the best shooters in the history of the world, Chandler is a rebounding and shot blocking menace and Peterson can play defense and spread the court.
Off the bench, the Hornets feature noted Spurs Killer Bonzi Wells in addition to Jannero Pargo, Julian Wright, Hilton Armstrong and Melvin Ely.
What do the players on the Spurs need to do to overcome the Hornets? Let’s take a look.
TIM DUNCAN
LJ's View: Tim Duncan played very well against the Phoenix Suns and will need to continue that level of play against the New Orleans Hornets. While he will no longer have to bang bodies with Shaquille O’Neal, the Hornets feature a lot of capable bigmen. Against West, Duncan needs to establish low post position and use his height and weight advantage to get easy shots. Against Chandler, being crafty and trying to get Chandler in foul trouble is the way to go. Defensively, Duncan will likely be involved in hundreds of pick-and-rolls in the series. The key for him on that end of the court will be to show on Paul but then rotate back before the bigman he’s guarding gets an open look. With Paul driving into the paint relentlessly, Duncan staying out of foul trouble is vital.
Kori's View: Tim Duncan was steady in the Suns series, but I think he'll be more of a focal point against the Hornets. Though Chandler is active and young, Duncan can use his experience and size to get post position and take advantage down low. I think Duncan will have a couple 30+ games against the Hornets. On the other side, Duncan will need to own the paint defensively for the Spurs to be successful. With Paul and others driving early and often, Duncan will need to be a hardass inside. If Duncan picks up cheap fouls, the Spurs could be in trouble.
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MANU GINOBILI
LJ's View: If the Spurs have an advantage offensively, it’s Manu Ginobili going against whoever is defending him. The Hornets don’t have a lockdown perimeter defender, which in theory will allow Ginobili to have a big series. The problem is Ginobili is hobbled headed into the series. He has groin and ankle injuries that may limit his production. However, the series could come down to whether Ginobili can shake his injury and lead the Spurs. If he remains hobbled, the Spurs may not be able to generate enough offense.
Kori's Views: Though Manu Ginobili is hurting, I think he has to have a big series for the Spurs to advance. He has the advantage at his position and should be able to attack the rim in this series. If Ginobili has trouble with his outside touch, he needs to continue driving inside. If he wasn't hurt, I would say Ginobili was going to own this series. But since he's hobbled, I think he'll be up and down. But look for Ginobili to have a couple "Super Manu" games - carrying the Spurs to victory. Hopefully he will come up big on the road as the Spurs need to take one of the first two games in the Big Easy.
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TONY PARKER
LJ's View: Against the Suns, Tony Parker was very good. Now he’ll have a much more difficult test. Paul is an aggressive defender with quick, strong hands. Chandler will be able to alter some of Parker’s looks at the basket. On the other end of the court, Parker will have the unenviable task of trying to slow down Paul. While Parker won’t be the only defender against Paul, he’ll likely spend a lot of quality time with his real life friend. When Parker isn’t guarding Paul, he’ll usually be matched up against a bigger and stronger player. Parker has his work cut out for him in this series, to say the least.
Kori's View: It's a new series and Tony Parker needs to forget all the success that he had against Phoenix. One thing he can't forget, however, is to stay in attack mode every second. Parker might get some shots thrown back at him from Chandler, but he need to stay relentless. On defense, Parker will have to spend some time on Paul, one of the best players in the league right now. Against the Suns, we saw Parker play stretches of incredible defense - pawing the ball away like he owned it. He will need to do the same against the Hornets. If Parker thought he was tired after the Phoenix series, I think he'll be even moreso against Hornets. He'll need to work hard on every single possession - offensively and defensively.
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BRUCE BOWEN
LJ's View: The Suns aren’t a great defensive team but they did a great defensive job against Bruce Bowen. Bowen didn’t attempt a three-pointer in the entire series, which tells you exactly how much the Suns were making sure Bowen didn’t get any open looks. Against the Hornets, Bowen will hopefully be able to produce at least a little bit offensively. Defensively, Bowen will be extremely busy. He’ll spend time against Paul and Stojakovic. While Bowen has a history of shutting down Stojakovic, he hasn’t had much experience against Paul. The only time he guarded him for extended minutes, he ended up suspended. If he can slow Paul down at all, Bowen can add to his defensive legacy.
Kori's View: Bruce Bowen was non-existent on offense against the Suns and played limited minutes, but still had a huge impact. In this series, he will likely split time between Paul and Stojakovic. Normally Bowen gets better as a series goes on, but he can't afford that luxury in this series. He'll have to be on top of his defensive game from the get-go for the Spurs to come out on top. His goal should be to deny Paul the ball as much as possible. The only way to stop Paul right now is to get the ball out of his hands. On offense, Bowen needs to get to his spot and knock down some three-pointers in order to help open up the lane for the rest the team.
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MICHAEL FINLEY
LJ's View: Michael Finley was big in the first two games of the Suns series. In the remaining three games, Finley wasn’t too busy. Against the Hornets, he’ll need to up his offensive output. If he can average 10-12 points per game, that’d be huge for the Spurs. Defensively, Finley will need to play much better than he did against the Suns. When Bowen is on Paul, Finley will likely be called upon to defend Stojakovic. If he becomes a defensive liability, Pop may be forced to look elsewhere and cut Finley’s minutes.
Kori's View: I agree that Michael Finley has to kick it up a notch. The Big Three did their job in Round 1 but in this series they will need even more support from the role players. Finley will need to knock down his open shots and do some work on D. If he gets burned early by Stojakovic, look for Pop to go with Udoka quickly.
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FABRICIO OBERTO
LJ's View: Fabricio Oberto lost his starting job in the Suns series, but he may find himself back in the starting lineup against the Hornets. Oberto’s main focus in this series will be trying to slow down West. West will likely take Oberto out on the court and Oberto will need to show he’s capable of being a perimeter defender. If Oberto gets lit up by West, the Spurs will be in trouble. Offensively, Oberto just needs to be smart and find ways to score when given the opportunity.
Kori's View: I'm not sure if Fabricio Oberto can do much defensively against David West, but he's going to have to give it his all. West is a mismatch for anyone on the Spurs to guard. He's too mobile for the bigs and too big for the wings. On offense, Oberto needs to keep moving. He should be able to get open with backdoor cuts and lots of motion.
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IME UDOKA
LJ's View: There’s a good chance that Ime Udoka plays a big role in the series against the Hornets. The Hornets have a lot of offensive weapons and Udoka is the most versatile defender on the team outside of Bowen. Udoka could find himself against everyone from West to Stojakovic. For Udoka to get extended minutes, he’ll need to show that he’s capable of knocking down perimeter shots offensively. He was only 1-for-9 against the Suns on three-pointers.
Kori's View: This is the series that Ime Udoka's defense should be most useful. Like LJ said, Pop may use him on everyone from West to Stojakovic. If Bowen is doing a good job on Paul and Stojakovic is going off, I can see Udoka getting a significant amount of playing time. To keep the Hornets from sagging and crowding the lane, Udoka will need to knock down some outside shots early.
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KURT THOMAS
LJ's View: Thomas was a huge piece for the Spurs in their win against the Suns. While Thomas likely won’t be as important against the Hornets, he could still play a vital role if he can defend West well. West will attempt to use his quickness advantage against Thomas, so Thomas will need to move his feet to keep West in front of him. On the offensive end of the court, Thomas will need to do a better job of hitting his jumper. Against the Suns, Thomas shot less than 40% from the field.
Kori's View: I'm not sure how much of a role Thomas will have in this series. I'd like to see if he can do anything to slow West, but I don't think he can. West is quick and he'll be a big test for Thomas. On offense, Thomas needs to knock down the mid-range J. If he can hit that shot, it will help the rest of the Spurs offense tremendously.
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JACQUE VAUGHN
LJ's View: Jacque Vaughn got his role slashed in the Suns series. Against the Hornets, Vaughn could find himself back in the rotation. To get consistent time, Vaughn will need to keep the offense humming while he’s on the court. If the Hornets take advantage of Vaughn’s shortcomings, he’ll find himself back out of the rotation. Defensively, I don’t expect him to be able to defend Paul but he might get a chance to prove me wrong.
Kori's View: Well in Suns series, Jacque Vaughn didn't do much but hack Shaq. In this series, he'll need to do a little more. If the Hornets play Paul and Pargo together, Pop might go with Parker and Vaughn in the game at the same time.
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BRENT BARRY
LJ's View: Brent Barry shot well and played well against the Phoenix Suns. As his calf continues to heal, there’s a chance that he’ll play an even larger role against the Hornets. If the team’s offense begins to stagnate, Barry will be called upon to help out. Defensively, Barry should be able to survive against New Orleans. Once upon a time, the Spurs almost traded him to these Hornets. Hopefully Barry can make the Hornets regret not completing that trade.
Kori's View: Brent Barry on the court always helps the offensive flow. This was evidenced throughout the season when the Spurs struggled to keep the ball moving while Barry was out. I'm not sure how close Barry is to being completely healed, but when the Spurs have one of their inevitable scoring droughts, Pop will turn to Barry for some answers.
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ROBERT HORRY
LJ's View: Robert Horry looked better and better against the Suns. However he’s still a long ways away from being at his best. Right now, he’s best used in short burst to hopefully create a couple big plays. If West becomes a problem for Oberto and Thomas, Horry is the next in line to get a shot. If it turns out to be Horry who can defend West the best, he may average a lot of minutes this series.
Kori's View: I'll repeat what I said before the Suns series because I believe it ... At one point this series, we will have Spurs fans debating whether it's "Big Shot Rob" or "Big Shot Bob" because I believe that Horry has got one big shot left in him before he's done.
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MATT BONNER & DAMON STOUDAMIRE
LJ's View: Matt Bonner and Damon Stoudamire won’t play a role in this series. There is an outside chance Pop will try Bonner if West is murdering everyone else. Bonner has played well against the Hornets in his time as a Spur. Stoudamire will likely only play if there is an injury.
Kori's View: Hopefully the Spurs will be blowing out the Hornets (doubtful!) and we'll see lots of Matt Bonner and Damon Stoudamire. Other than that, I don't want to see these guys on the court because it will mean the Spurs are in trouble.
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COACHING
LJ's View: Pop had an extremely successful series against the Suns. Now he faces a completely different list of potential problems. The Hornets destroyed the Spurs twice in the regular season, which hopefully will have the Spurs prepared for the worst.
Defense is worries me the most in this series. In the regular season, the Hornets used a top of the key pick-and-roll repeatedly with great success. Paul would get to the rim for a layup, find Chandler for an alleyoop or find West for an easy jumper. Pop’s adjustment was to go under the pick and force Paul to hit the perimeter jumper. Paul struggled with that adjust for one game but then bounced back in the next game to destroy the Spurs.
Going under the pick shouldn’t be the strategy in this series. The Spurs need to use the same strategy they used against Nash and hope that Bowen and Parker can step up defensively. Sticking on Stojakovic is also extremely important. Slowing down West will be tough but if they can keep him to his season averages, that might be good enough.
Offensively, it’d be nice if Ginobili can dominate. He has the biggest advantage in this series for the Spurs. If he can’t dominate, Duncan and Parker will need to step up again. Duncan has a strength advantage against this team, so Pop should call a lot of Four-Down this series. Pick-and-rolls to get Parker going should also be high on the gameplan.
Kori's View: I didn't agree with some of Pop's moves in the Suns series, yet other decisions were pure genius. I guess that's why he's coaching and I'm just writing this preview. I'm very interested in seeing how Pop handles some of the mismatches in this series and how he chooses to contain Paul. If Bowen isn't successful guarding Paul early, I don't believe Pop will stick with him. Sliding Bowen over to guard Stojakovic (who Bowen normally guards well) and allowing Parker to do his best against Paul might be the best alternative, but the Spurs don't want to burn Parker out either. Then there's West, who I think poses a big problem for the Spurs.
On offense, Pop needs to make sure that the Spurs stay in constant attack mode. If you get Chandler into foul trouble and off the court, that will make things easier for the Spurs inside. Rather than pick-and-roll all day, I think this series will be more of a mixed bag in terms of offensive play calling.
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SERIES OVERVIEW
LJ's View: The Hornets are going to be an extremely difficult team to defeat. They remind me of the 2006 Dallas Mavericks and will cause similar mismatches for the Spurs. Out of every team in the Western Conference, the Hornets were the team I most feared most due to the mismatches.
To beat New Orleans, at least two of the Big Three need to be great offensively. The role players also need to step up and contribute more on the offensive end. Defensively, the Spurs will no doubt struggle at times. However, if the Spurs can slow down Paul just enough and make him look his age, the Spurs would be able to win this series in six games.
My five keys to the series are:
1) Figure out the Hornets pick-and-roll. If the Spurs can't slow it down, the series is over.
2) Limit Stojakovic. It's going to be hard to limit Paul and West but the Spurs have done a good job on Stojakovic in the past.
3) Perimeter shooting. The Hornets did a good job in the regular season of defending the three-point line. The Spurs need to get open looks and knock them down.
4) Bench production. Outside of Ginobili, someone else from the Spurs needs to produce. For the Hornets, the two players who scare me are Pargo and Wright. Pargo is a clutch perimeter shooter who can get hot in a hurry. Wright is an uber-athletic forward who could be a nightmare for the Spurs' older bench to defend.
5) Be physical. The Hornets can get flustered if you rough them up. Rebound hard. Defend hard. Foul hard.
Believe.
Kori's View: Though the games were tough, the Spurs dispatched the Suns quicker than I thought. And while Phoenix was difficult, there's still a long road ahead. To beat the Hornets, the Big Three can't do it alone. Finley, Bowen, Barry and Udoka are going to have to hit their threes with Thomas and Oberto also chipping in some points. The Spurs MUST split in New Orleans. If they come back to San Antonio 0-2, it might be too deep of a hole to get out of. Denying Paul the ball is key, Bowen and Parker will have to play smothering D to make this thing work.
My five keys to the series are:
1) Figuring out CP3. Pop has to figure out who can guard Paul and how to guard him. If Paul goes for one of his 30+ points and 15+ assists games, the Spurs will be in trouble.
2) Find a defender against West. It might be Oberto. It might be Thomas. It might be Udoka. But it has to be somebody.
3) Role players sacking up and stepping up. The Big Three are trustworthy these days. The role players are the ones that could look too old and too slow against the Hornets.
4) Pop pulling the right strings. Pop was fantastic against the Suns. But now it's a new series and he has to make sure to make the right adjustments throughout the series.
5) Cohesiveness. The Spurs have been together for a long time. They need to show that experience and play cohesive basketball - especially in the first two games of the series.
Spurs in 6 (or maybe 5 hard games).
Last edited by timvp; 05-03-2008 at 06:54 PM.
"we will see two very different teams"
Ex-Spur/current Hornet Melvin Ely said they were the same. I'm confused. Whom to believe?
Last edited by boutons_; 05-03-2008 at 06:32 PM.
Fantastic write up.
About time ! lol
I'm just hoping Pop doesn't go small to try and defend West. May sound stupid but think back to 2006.
great job as usual
That Bonner and Stoudamire pic gave me a good laugh. Bowen is purely for defense now, on offense he pretty much just stands around waiting for the offense to forget about him. I'm very curious to see what moves Popavich makes this series and whether NO will mentally collapse like many here predict.
SERIES OVERVIEW
with a Suns pic
Good read
Fixed. Thanks.
I'm also a bit fearful with regard to small ball. I can imagine Pop going small and then using Udoka or even Bowen on West. I don't think Pop is crazy enough to try that .......... but he might.
That's so weird because I was thinking the same exact thing. While I don't think David West is as consistently good as Dirk, he provides the same exact mismatch problems for the Spurs as Dirk did in 06. Pargo/Paul are obviously even better than Terry/Harris, but both have the quickness to keep up with the likes of Parker in the open court and Paul attacks the paint with quickness similarly to Harris in 06. They also have perimeter shooters like Peja and role players like Wright and Wells similiar to the Mavs bench in 06 which stepped up.
This is going to be a very, very tough series as I think that these Hornets are even better than the 06 Mavs. Experience may very well be the deciding factor that pushes the Spurs over the edge. Hopefully.
Isn't that what he did in 2006 against the Mavs? Go small?
I know he might. If the Hornets want to run isolations for West let them! I don't think West will drop 30+ consistently on the Spurs anyway. The Hornets are far more deadly when the ball is Paul's hands and he is dishing out assists/scoring.
At this point Pop is crazy enough to try anything if he thinks it might work. The good news is that the Spurs shouldn't be caught completely off guard in this series like they were in 2006 if mixing in some small ball is necessary. They've played enough of both styles at this point to be able to do it when necessary, but they have to execute on both ends of the court to get this series won. If we had a player like Horry of 1995 I'd feel much better defensively about handling West, but it's going to be tough with what we have. Horry of 2008 is probably too slow, and Oberto of any year is most likely too slow. Thomas seemed to do fairly well at times keeping his feet and body in front of the quick and dangerous Stoudamire, so maybe he would have some measure of success against West. I don't buy into the Hornet's lack of experience excuse, this is a damn good team with a bonafide leader. They're going to be a tough out, but the Spurs have handled better teams in the past and should do so once again.
Spurs in 6, or 5 if they are really on their game.
Thanks guys, yours is better than anything I've read nationally. The personal touch you both bring provides an insight to the Spurs I don't feel anywhere else. I hope the Spurs read it.
I will say this for Bruce, when he is occupying a defender like he did against PHX, he is contributing offensively, even if he's not taking any shots.
When he becomes a detriment is when he's missing shots and the opponent can play 5 on 4 the rest of the team (i.e. '06 Dallas).
I think we're all going to be impressed with Kurt Thomas's D on West
I'm hoping KT continues to pick up his strong defensive play, and that it wasn't just because he had extra motivation against his old team in round 1.
This is the thing that I don't get about Kurt Thomas. I was not impressed with him at all in Phoenix, especially when he needed to guard quality centers. Why do people give this guy so many props? The one thing I do like is he can hit the mid range jumper somewhat consistently.
I see an endless buffet of pick and rolls by both teams.
You Suns homers were giving him lots of props when he was defending Duncan last year. Hmmm... what changed?
You must not know what to look for. Thomas maintained excellent position that forced both Stoudamire and Shaq into tough shot situations, did a damn good job of rotating and administering help side defense most of the time (especially at the end of game 5), and did a damn good job of cleaning the glass when on the court. His weakness was in fact his sub .400 FG % for the series, even though he got mostly wide open looks.
I wasn't here last year. Every game I saw Duncan would score 30+ points on him or whoever they used. I was glad to see him go. But I hate to see him possibly leeching a le off the Spurs.
Good read
I think this is going to be a very tough series but I believe
Spurs in 6
This is Robert Horry's time to shine!!!
Why can't Bonner play? Isn't he better than Horry? Guess not.. Horry's legend or this current Hory?
My only comment at this point is that the Spurs' defensive system is all about taking away layups and 3s, and forcing guys into shooting mid-range jumpers. Unfortunately, NO have a bunch of guys (Paul, West, Mo Pete, Peja, Pargo) who can regularly make the mid-range shot. That means the Spurs may have to switch up their defensive scheme to compensate.
Oh, and Manu's health is a concern, but if he is healthy no-one on NO can guard him.
PS Julian Wright is the X-factor for the Hornets - the Spurs have no-one to match up on him as he is long and uber-athletic. Let's hope he doesn't get going.
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