21 Reasons to Believe

[timvp]

1. It is the New Orleans Hornets first time in this situation. That’s not to say it’s impossible for the Hornets to win the series, but there’s a big difference eliminating a splintered Dallas Mavericks squad and taking down the defending NBA champions.

2. Game 1 was ugly. It was difficult to stomach. But a Game 2 victory puts the Spurs in the driver’s seat. A Game 2 win suddenly puts all the pressure back on the Hornets.

3. The Hornets are apparently banking on the Spurs’ three-point shooting coming up dry. Doubling Duncan hard will open up three-point shots. In fact, the Spurs got more good looks from deep in Game 1 than they did all series against the Suns. With the shooters on the Spurs – from Ginobili to Bowen to Barry to Finley – that strategy will be punished.

4. While the Hornets are new to this situation, this is nothing new for the Spurs. Four championships for both Duncan and Pop. A little playoff adversity is old hat for San Antonio.

5. Even with the Spurs playing poorly, they were in it with five minutes to go. Down only eight points, the Spurs still could have made a run despite the poor play.

6. To begin the second half, the Spurs were 16-5 in the first six minutes of the third quarter. Those six minutes were basically the difference in the game. Smarter play to begin the third and the game would have been much different.

7. The Hornets had only seven turnovers. They did a great job of taking care of the ball – however, that’s not a number they’ll be able to sustain over the course of the series.

8. The Spurs put themselves in an early 0-8 hole to begin the game. While they were able to erase the deficit quickly, those eight points were costly as the game wore on.

9. Tony Parker is looking better than ever in terms of being able to finish at the basket. He’s playing at a high level and should be able to continue this level of play throughout the series.

10. The Spurs have ten players on their roster who won a ring last year. Think they will splinter like the Mavs? Think again. If this team goes down, they’ll go down fighting as a single unit.

11. Peja Stojakovic averaged 11 points per game against the Spurs during the regular season. Historically, the Spurs have done a great job defending against Stojakovic. His 22 points in Game 1 were huge but the Spurs should be able to figure out a way to slow him down.

12. The Hornets have a lot of talented scorers. Luckily, the Spurs have Bruce Bowen to throw at anyone from Paul to West to Stojakovic. Oh and you want to leave Bowen open to double Duncan? Go ahead and leave the most prolific and clutchest three-point shooter in Spurs playoff history.

13. The Spurs turned the ball over 13 times, which isn’t that bad. But the Hornets were able to score 25 points off of those 13 turnovers. That points to poor transition defense. And if there is one thing we know about a Pop coached team is that he won’t accept poor transition defense.

14. Even after the Game 1 loss, the Spurs have won 14 of their last 17 playoff games. That’s domination.

15. Sure, David West has hurt the Spurs three times this season. However, in the other two games, the Spurs held him to 15 and 16 points. The Spurs not only can figure him out, the have figured him out twice this season.

16. The Spurs were outrebounded by 16 in Game 1. The Spurs also gave up 16 offensive rebounds. While that was impressive by the Hornets, New Orleans can’t count on that type of advantage. In fact, the Spurs were one of the best defensive rebounding teams in NBA history during the regular season.

17. The Hornets want to leave the Spurs open on the perimeter? Go ahead, although they’ll be re-introduced to Brent Barry. They will also see why New Orleans almost traded for him a couple years ago.

18. It has been 18 playoff games since the Spurs lost a close game in the postseason. Since then, the Spurs have either won or lost in a blowout. Unless the Hornets plan on blowing out the Spurs three more times, they may have to see why the Spurs specialize in close games in the playoffs.

19. The Spurs shot 57.1% from the free throw line in Game 1. In the regular season, the Spurs shot 76.1% from the charity stripe. That 19 percent drop came back to haunt the Spurs. In forthcoming games, the Spurs will likely shoot closer to their average.

20. Manu Ginobili looked about as healthy as could be expected. He’s banged up but he can still perform at a high level. He missed only one two-pointer in Game 1 and should an ability to carve up the Hornets’ defense when he drove to the basket.

21. Tim Duncan will bounce back. You aren’t going to see anymore five points and three rebounds type performances out of him for the rest of the series. He shot over 60% against the Hornets in the regular season. Duncan had a bad game, no doubt. Game 2 will be different.

[Summers]

So reason #21 is #21?

[Killakobe81]

I agree with MOST of this ...but do the Spur players ....

[E20]

So reason #21 is #21?

Reason number 20 is about Manu
Reason number 9 is about TP
Reason number 12 is about Bowen
Reason number 17 is about Barry

[boutons_]

WTF was wrong with Tim will remain a mystery.
He was unrecognizable.

[boutons_]

Game2 will be F U G L Y .... for the Hornets, will be coming to SA with a split on their backs.

Spurs will be as unrecognizable in Game2 as Tim was in Game1.

Thanks for working out these 21 points.

[loquats]

WTF was wrong with Tim will remain a mystery.
He was unrecognizable.

Maybe...just maybe..it had something to do with the Hornets defense.

Maybe?

[timvp]

Maybe...just maybe..it had something to do with the Hornets defense.

Maybe?

Five points and three rebounds. You could double-team Duncan with Wilt and Russell and he won't go for 5 and 3 in Game 2.

[O-Factor]

Maybe...just maybe..it had something to do with the Hornets defense.

Maybe?

If the hornets D is the reason, then Tim would go somewhere around 5 and 3 every night the rest of the series.........so No.

[honestfool84]

Five points and three rebounds. You could double-team Duncan with Wilt and Russell and he won't go for 5 and 3 in Game 2.

that is true.
duncan is gonna explode, and i mean in a monstrous way.

[spursfan09]

Maybe...just maybe..it had something to do with the Hornets defense.

Maybe?

you wish. If Hornets do that the whole series, then maybe just maybe....

[Xylus]

It's only May.

[TDMVPDPOY]

this team will only go wheere tim duncan takes us

[Admidave50]

Superb job, but I was already believing before reading this!

[Brox6]

#21 - #20 - #9 are the reason why I belive..

[polandprzem]

Five points and three rebounds. You could double-team Duncan with Wilt and Russell and he won't go for 5 and 3 in Game 2.

Russell is too old and Wilt won't come for sure.


Other then that Wilt was not a great defender, good but not great.
I say Thurmond and Russell and he (Tim) won't go for 5 and 3

[Slippy]

. The Hornets are apparently banking on the Spurs’ three-point shooting coming up dry. Doubling Duncan hard will open up three-point shots. In fact, the Spurs got more good looks from deep in Game 1 than they did all series against the Suns

Reason 3 could end up being a big factor. After going 9 of 14 in the first half , you think the Hornets would of tightened up for the second. The open looks were still there, the Spurs just couldn't hit'em. Didn't help that Manu went cold and Pop put in Barry too late in the game.

[pooh]

1. It is the New Orleans Hornets first time in this situation. That’s not to say it’s impossible for the Hornets to win the series, but there’s a big difference eliminating a splintered Dallas Mavericks squad and taking down the defending NBA champions.

See 2006 Chicago Bulls who swept the defending Champs, the Heat in four straight.

2. Game 1 was ugly. It was difficult to stomach. But a Game 2 victory puts the Spurs in the driver’s seat. A Game 2 win suddenly puts all the pressure back on the Hornets.

It evens things and gives the Spurs a slight edge, but yes...momentium does swing slightly in their favor.

3. The Hornets are apparently banking on the Spurs’ three-point shooting coming up dry. Doubling Duncan hard will open up three-point shots. In fact, the Spurs got more good looks from deep in Game 1 than they did all series against the Suns. With the shooters on the Spurs – from Ginobili to Bowen to Barry to Finley – that strategy will be punished.

Manu is hobbling, Barry is still trying to get the kinks out while resting since 2007 it seems and Finely comes out once every full moon.

4. While the Hornets are new to this situation, this is nothing new for the Spurs. Four championships for both Duncan and Pop. A little playoff adversity is old hat for San Antonio.

See answer to first question and remember Spurs 98-99 when they were "new" to all of that.

5. Even with the Spurs playing poorly, they were in it with five minutes to go. Down only eight points, the Spurs still could have made a run despite the poor play.

True, but with Duncan unable to hit water if he was in a boat, wasn't going to change things.

6. To begin the second half, the Spurs were 16-5 in the first six minutes of the third quarter. Those six minutes were basically the difference in the game. Smarter play to begin the third and the game would have been much different.

True there as well. However many would say the turning point was the 19 min delay due to the Hornets people unable to extinguish the "ring of fire."

7. The Hornets had only seven turnovers. They did a great job of taking care of the ball – however, that’s not a number they’ll be able to sustain over the course of the series.

The first agreement with you on. Both teams will have problems with that throughout this series.

8. The Spurs put themselves in an early 0-8 hole to begin the game. While they were able to erase the deficit quickly, those eight points were costly as the game wore on.

True, they can't afford to fall down by 8 or 10 points right off, otherwise it will be another long night for the sliver and black.

9. Tony Parker is looking better than ever in terms of being able to finish at the basket. He’s playing at a high level and should be able to continue this level of play throughout the series.

He's been playing well since last years finals. He's playing out of his head, but eventually he's going to hit the wall.

10. The Spurs have ten players on their roster who won a ring last year. Think they will splinter like the Mavs? Think again. If this team goes down, they’ll go down fighting as a single unit.

I don't see them crumbling like the Mavs did last year against the Warriors, but I will agree if they go down, they'll go down together.

11. Peja Stojakovic averaged 11 points per game against the Spurs during the regular season. Historically, the Spurs have done a great job defending against Stojakovic. His 22 points in Game 1 were huge but the Spurs should be able to figure out a way to slow him down.

If they try to lock down Peja, that's going to free up Paul and West, so pick your poison.

12. The Hornets have a lot of talented scorers. Luckily, the Spurs have Bruce Bowen to throw at anyone from Paul to West to Stojakovic. Oh and you want to leave Bowen open to double Duncan? Go ahead and leave the most prolific and clutchest three-point shooter in Spurs playoff history.

Bruce needs to watch his "bumping" into guys like Paul, etc. Otherwise, it's going to bite them on the butt. I would take my chances doubling up Duncan. Bruce had one good half, I don't see him doing anything like that in game two.

13. The Spurs turned the ball over 13 times, which isn’t that bad. But the Hornets were able to score 25 points off of those 13 turnovers. That points to poor transition defense. And if there is one thing we know about a Pop coached team is that he won’t accept poor transition defense.

Pop will make the adjustments and the turnovers will go down, but expect some early to start the game. The Spurs must absorb the first five or ten minutes of the game, otherwise another long night.

14. Even after the Game 1 loss, the Spurs have won 14 of their last 17 playoff games. That’s domination.

Agreed.

15. Sure, David West has hurt the Spurs three times this season. However, in the other two games, the Spurs held him to 15 and 16 points. The Spurs not only can figure him out, the have figured him out twice this season.

West won't put up the same numbers as he did on Saturday, however he will be a factor, along with Paul and Peja.


16. The Spurs were outrebounded by 16 in Game 1. The Spurs also gave up 16 offensive rebounds. While that was impressive by the Hornets, New Orleans can’t count on that type of advantage. In fact, the Spurs were one of the best defensive rebounding teams in NBA history during the regular season.

Old legs get old fast...so we'll see on that one.


17. The Hornets want to leave the Spurs open on the perimeter? Go ahead, although they’ll be re-introduced to Brent Barry. They will also see why New Orleans almost traded for him a couple years ago.

The only ones the Hornets should be worried about are Bruce and Manu (and even he is on one leg), Barry is still shaking off the rust.


18. It has been 18 playoff games since the Spurs lost a close game in the postseason. Since then, the Spurs have either won or lost in a blowout. Unless the Hornets plan on blowing out the Spurs three more times, they may have to see why the Spurs specialize in close games in the playoffs.

Another one I will give you.


19. The Spurs shot 57.1% from the free throw line in Game 1. In the regular season, the Spurs shot 76.1% from the charity stripe. That 19 percent drop came back to haunt the Spurs. In forthcoming games, the Spurs will likely shoot closer to their average.

That percentage should go up at home.


20. Manu Ginobili looked about as healthy as could be expected. He’s banged up but he can still perform at a high level. He missed only one two-pointer in Game 1 and should an ability to carve up the Hornets’ defense when he drove to the basket.

The longer this series goes, the more banged up he's going to get. You can't stop him from going up the middle. I think the Hornets will dare him to do it, only to punish him. He'll get the basket but eventually it will catch up to him. Call it the Hornets version of "hack a manu."

21. Tim Duncan will bounce back. You aren’t going to see anymore five points and three rebounds type performances out of him for the rest of the series. He shot over 60% against the Hornets in the regular season. Duncan had a bad game, no doubt. Game 2 will be different.

I agree completely with you. You will never see him put together back to back games like what he did on Saturday night. He will come out motivated...question is will he, (along with Bruce, Manu and Tony) be able to match his intensity? We'll see...but it doesnt hurt to "believe." Maybe.

[polandprzem]

2. Game 1 was ugly. It was difficult to stomach. But a Game 2 victory puts the Spurs in the driver’s seat. A Game 2 win suddenly puts all the pressure back on the Hornets.

I wouldn't say that. All in all they would still have to lose both games at San Antonio. With one win they are back on driver seat.

3. The Hornets are apparently banking on the Spurs’ three-point shooting coming up dry. Doubling Duncan hard will open up three-point shots. In fact, the Spurs got more good looks from deep in Game 1 than they did all series against the Suns. With the shooters on the Spurs – from Ginobili to Bowen to Barry to Finley – that strategy will be punished.

Yea but they know the spurs are not great shooting team.
Mavs absolutely were aunable to do anything inside and they are better shootiing team. they had chances knocking down shots but as long as Hornets were able to stop high % shots (inside) they were fine, plus they could go on runs. And climbing back for the opposite team is really tough and takes away a lot more energy.

The spurs are lacking the fast points situations. Like 2, 3 quick passes and you've got a player on open position near the basket.
I wish we has a guy like Brandon Bass, he did some damage inside. He is like more talented version of Malik Rose (hustla' playa').

10. The Spurs have ten players on their roster who won a ring last year. Think they will splinter like the Mavs? Think again. If this team goes down, they’ll go down fighting as a single unit.

They could erase the 1-3 disadventage against the Mavs.
But every year is a diferent story.

15. Sure, David West has hurt the Spurs three times this season. However, in the other two games, the Spurs held him to 15 and 16 points. The Spurs not only can figure him out, the have figured him out twice this season.

Or he had just a bad night and nite.

16. The Spurs were outrebounded by 16 in Game 1. The Spurs also gave up 16 offensive rebounds. While that was impressive by the Hornets, New Orleans can’t count on that type of advantage. In fact, the Spurs were one of the best defensive rebounding teams in NBA history during the regular season.

That's the problem spurs must to solve. They were rebounding real good against Suns. And against Hornets it is even more important. Cause NO are better defensive squad then Suns. So protect the basket and give them only one chance at one possesion.
I don't know why Pop did not used Udoka more

More or less

Believe

[samikeyp]

[urunobili]

if we win this series this thread will be up there in the nominates for thread of the year! BELIEVE! thanks timvp!

[bdictjames]

One of the best things I've seen this guy write.. great job man!! Now publish it and let the Spurs players read this so they can be motivated.

[Supreme_Being]

This is one of the more awesome threads here in ST. Well, its just another day at the office for timvp. Awesome-ity is in timvp's genes.

[1Parker1]

15. Sure, David West has hurt the Spurs three times this season. However, in the other two games, the Spurs held him to 15 and 16 points. The Spurs not only can figure him out, the have figured him out twice this season.

Was this a matter of him having an off night or was it the Spurs defense?? Because if it was the Spurs defense, then why the heck couldn't they adjust and do whatever they did in those wins in the 2nd half against West??

[NoMoneyDown]

Its interesting, but this series is going just like I predicted. I said "Spurs: L-W-W-W-L-W" before Game 1 in one of these threads and I still believe it. Too much was riding on the Hornets to win G1 and thats what happened. Game 2 will be a slugfest, but I look for the Spurs to eek out a 2-6 pt victory (maybe bigger). Tim will unload, CP3 will get more points, West will come back down to earth a little, and the supporting cast for the Spurs will pick it up a notch.