I think Game 3 and the rest of the series will come down to a coaching move. Pop must, must, must switch the defensive assignments. Pop has to put Parker on Paul and Bowen on Peja Stojakovic. If he doesn’t, this series is over. The Hornets will either sweep or win in five.
If Pop does make that switch? It’s a whole new ballgame. Bowen has a great history of shutting down Stojakovic. In the first two games of this series, Stojakovic has 47 points. The Spurs just can’t beat these Hornets if Stojakovic is scoring that much. Paul and West are difficult enough to defend. If you add Stojakovic averaging 23.5 points to the equation, it becomes impossible. The good news is that Bowen can shut down Stojakovic. And while Parker isn’t going to slow Paul much, nobody is going to slow Paul much.
The strategy from here on out defensively has to be to force Paul to win games by himself. Take away Stojakovic and Morris Peterson. Send only minimal help towards West. Contain the rest of the role players. If Paul goes for 45 points to carry his team to victory, you tip your hat and go on vacation.
Offensively, the Spurs desperately need their three-point shooters to find their range. The Hornets are packing the paint defensively and daring the shooters to win the game for the Spurs. So far, the shooters haven’t been able to keep the Hornets honest. It doesn’t really matter what type of offensive set the Spurs run – be it Duncan in the low block, a pick-and-roll or an isolation – the Hornets are packing the paint on everything and leaving shooters open. The shooters need to be ready to take the shots and actually want to shoot the shots. The Hornets won’t stop packing the paint until the shooters show up.
The bottomline is the Spurs find themselves in a daunting 0-2 hole. To climb out, it starts with a Game 3 victory. Make the needed adjustments. Stick together. Gut out Game 3.
Believe.