The Republicans Are In A World Of Hurt

[MannyIsGod]

This isn't spin, this isn't bluster. This is the flat out truth.

Democrat Travis Childers (CHILL-ders), a court official in Prentiss county, beat Republican Greg Davis, mayor of Southaven, in a runoff election for House district MS-01 by a margin of 54% to 46% yesterday. The seat, which is R+10, became free when Gov. Haley Barbour appointed its occupant, Roger Wicker, to the Senate to fill the vacancy created when Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) resigned. This is the third stright loss for the GOP in a contested heavily Republican district this year. On March 8, scientist Bill Foster (D) defeated businessman Jim Oberweis (R) in IL-14 an R+5 district in the Chicago suburbs. On May 3, Louisian state legislator Don Cazayoux defeated former representative and newspaper publisher Woody Jenkin in R+7 LA-06. And now MS-01. All three races saw the national parties heavily involved. Both the NRCC and the DCCC spent upwards of $1 million on these races and outside groups, such as the conservative Freedom's Watch, poured in hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The MS-01 loss is especially painful to the GOP for three reasons. First, the Republicans tried very, very hard here, pouring in huge amounts of money and having Gov. Haley Barbour and Vice President Cheney campaign for Davis. Second, in IL-14 and LA-06 they could argue they had flawed candidates. That doesn't hold here. Greg Davis is a popular mayor who has done a good job and has never been involved in any scandals. Third, this election was the second field test of the Republicans' November strategy, which they rolled out against Cazayoux and refined here. They ran ads bitterly attacking Childers as a close associate and fellow traveler of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. They called him a LIBERAL (them's fightin' words in Mississippi). They said he didn't represent Mississippi values. They tried everything. It didn't work.
At this point NRCC chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) is probably sweating bullets. He has hardly any money left and the only arrow in his quiver is calling Democrats tax-and-spend liberals. If that doesn't work in R+7 districts (LA-06) and R+10 districts (MS-01) what's going to happen in swing districts like AZ-01, FL-15, IL-11, IL-18, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-29, OH-15, OH-16, VA-01, and VA-11, all of which are Republican-held open seats that are R+5 or less?
The implication of LA-06 and MS-01 is that tying a Democratic House candidate to Obama (the Republicans assume he will be the nominee; they don't even mention Clinton) doesn't seem to hurt, not even in overwhelmingly Republican districts in the deep South. It certainly isn't going to hurt in New Jersey and Minnesota. And Obama may have de facto coattails by getting many young voters to register and vote this year, and most of these will vote a straight Democratic ticket.

http://electoral-vote.com/

The results amount to a rebuke of the Republican strategy of trying nationalize the race by tying Childers to Sen. Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Obama held low approval ratings in the district, but the nearly $2 million that GOP groups poured into northern Mississippi failed to make the race a referendum on the national political landscape.

Republicans dispatched a lineup of heavy hitters in the campaign’s final week, including a pre-election stop Monday by Vice President Cheney. President Bush, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and First Lady Laura Bush recorded automated calls urging voters to support Davis.

A GOP House leadership aide told Politico last week that “if we don’t win in Mississippi, I think you are going to see a lot of people running around here looking for windows to jump out of.”

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecry..._election.html

The loss has already shaken establishment Republicans in Washington. After losing special elections in Illinois and Louisiana, the House GOP conference already expects a bad year for their party. But those two districts voted for President Bush by eleven and nineteen points, respectively, not by a whopping twenety five points. "People are going to want change," said a top aide to a leading House Republican. "The excuses, that [Davis] didn't have the resources or that he wasn't from the right part of the district, that's just not going to hold up."

In the earlier special elections, Republicans blamed their candidate -- businessman Jim Oberweis in Illinois and former state legislator Woody Jenkins in Louisiana -- for the party's loss. As polls showed Davis losing to Childers, national Republicans began to signal they would blame Davis for being from the wrong part of the district.

But instead of blaming Davis, National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Cole issued a surprisingly blunt statement about his party's own chances, coming a week after a national poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by a wide 50%-32% margin on generic congessional ballot tests. "Tonight's election highlights two significant challenges Republicans must overcome this November," Cole said. "First, Republicans must be prepared to campaign against Democrat challengers who are running as conservatives, even as they try to join a liberal Democrat majority. Though the Democrats' task will be more difficult in a November election, the fact is they have pulled off two special election victories with this strategy, and it should be a concern to all Republicans."

"The political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general," Cole continued. "I encourage all Republican candidates, whether in bents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall by building the financial resources and grassroots networks that offer them the opportunity and ability to communicate, energize and turn out voters this election."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...n_mississ.html



What Cole says there in that last paragraph is absolutely true. Sadly for Republicans Obama is raising a ton of money that will be used all over the board and you can bet your ass the Democrats will be able to destroy the Republicans in spending this year.

[Nbadan]

The results amount to a rebuke of the Republican strategy of trying nationalize the race by tying Childers to Sen. Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Obama held low approval ratings in the district, but the nearly $2 million that GOP groups poured into northern Mississippi failed to make the race a referendum on the national political landscape.

Yep, we've all been busy with the Obama-Hillary scuddle-butt but the media has completely ignored just how bad Republicans will get trumped in November.....I wonder if starting instead of impeading, impeachment proceedings against Dubya and Cheney would help?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

It's sad that America is going to have to suffer through 4-8 years of Obama spending us further into the ground to figure out that all the politicians in D.C. suck donkey balls.

We need a new party, one that's actually fiscally conservative and whose reps have the balls to stand up for America's future and not just whoring themselves out for votes today.

[clambake]

bush has made sure there's no more money to spend. what's your problem?

[ClingingMars]

Yep, we've all been busy with the Obama-Hillary scuddle-butt but the media has completely ignored just how bad Republicans will get trumped in November.....I wonder if starting instead of impeading, impeachment proceedings against Dubya and Cheney would help?

impeachment? talk again when you get back from the insane asylum.

- Mars

[ClingingMars]

It's sad that America is going to have to suffer through 4-8 years of Obama spending us further into the ground to figure out that all the politicians in D.C. suck donkey balls.

We need a new party, one that's actually fiscally conservative and whose reps have the balls to stand up for America's future and not just whoring themselves out for votes today.

as Newt Gingrich has said, it's time for conservatives to declare independence from the Republican Party.

- Mars

[clambake]

newt's not a conserative.

[Ocotillo]

Conservatives are never to blame........

Conservatism doens't fail, it is only failed.......

You guys keep telling yourself that .

After 2000, you had it all. All three branches! Friggin' bin Laden launched the 9/11 attacks and the whole country for all intents and purposes lined up behind Bush and supported him.

So the conservative agenda was launched

pre-emptive war
tax cuts
Terri Schiavo
wiretaps
Alito
Roberts
torture

And all you friggin' conservatives were cheerleading W. and GOP Congress the whole way.

Well the Iraq war is one huge clusterf*ck
The economy sucks
Communist China practically own us
The Saudis are buying are assets

Mission Accomplished!

Oh, now Bush and Congress weren't really conservatives. Get this straight. While he has this country over a barrel and dry humpin' us all, the only time you guys griped about him was over some nuance on immigration and the Medicare Part D crap. Other than that, all you cons were kissing his ring.

Now your a bunch of Libertarians and Ron Paul supporters. Screw all of you cons!

Obama and crew will get things back in order, the country will begin to feel some prosperity again and some flim flam Republican will come around promising to cut taxes and just enough folks will think, "Dang, screw it, I got mine, I want a tax cut." and the whole vicious cycle will start again.

I am going to enjoy November. The GOP is going to taste defeat they haven't seen since the post Nixonian election.

[SnakeBoy]

Yeah things will be great again just like when Jimmy Carter was president. Oh, the good ole days.

[Ocotillo]

If Reagan had stuck with Carter's alternative fuels program we could be a lot further along in self sufficiency.

I know, I know, drill in ANWR that will save us all.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Any time one party controls both the White House and Congress that's bad for America, and it's time to pass the vaseline.

If the libertarians had a defense policy, they'd be the perfect party for me.

[clambake]

Any time one party controls both the White House and Congress that's bad for America, and it's time to pass the vaseline.

If the libertarians had a defense policy, they'd be the perfect party for me.

you like it now? straining to point of breaking? i don't understand what you're asking for.

[Don Quixote]

We don't mean to say the Republicans aren't in trouble. They most certainly are! They will likely lose a few more seats in the House and Senate before it's all done. And they don't have a great shot at the Presidency, although McCain might yet pull it off.

The cause of this, though, is not a widespread denial of conservatism by the people. It's the other way around -- the people in conservative districts WANT their elected Congressmen (the Republicans, anyway) to keep taxes low, to secure the border,to do something about illegal immigration, to aggressively prosecute the war on radical Islam, and generally protect religious freedom. But if you look at GOP leadership, we see very little commitment to these issues.

Shoot, our Presidential candidate is with the liberals on global warming, amnesty for illegals, and giving Cons utional rights to terrorists. I'm not sure where he is on gun control. So he's not exactly exhibiting conservative leadership. And neither has Bush.

So, it's no surprise the Republicans are in trouble. It's a bad year if you're a Republican seeking reelection, that's for sure.

[romsho]

Conservatives are never to blame........

Conservatism doens't fail, it is only failed.......

You guys keep telling yourself that .

After 2000, you had it all. All three branches! Friggin' bin Laden launched the 9/11 attacks and the whole country for all intents and purposes lined up behind Bush and supported him.

So the conservative agenda was launched

pre-emptive war
tax cuts
Terri Schiavo
wiretaps
Alito
Roberts
torture

And all you friggin' conservatives were cheerleading W. and GOP Congress the whole way.

Well the Iraq war is one huge clusterf*ck
The economy sucks
Communist China practically own us
The Saudis are buying are assets

Mission Accomplished!

Oh, now Bush and Congress weren't really conservatives. Get this straight. While he has this country over a barrel and dry humpin' us all, the only time you guys griped about him was over some nuance on immigration and the Medicare Part D crap. Other than that, all you cons were kissing his ring.

Now your a bunch of Libertarians and Ron Paul supporters. Screw all of you cons!

Obama and crew will get things back in order, the country will begin to feel some prosperity again and some flim flam Republican will come around promising to cut taxes and just enough folks will think, "Dang, screw it, I got mine, I want a tax cut." and the whole vicious cycle will start again.

I am going to enjoy November. The GOP is going to taste defeat they haven't seen since the post Nixonian election.

You crushed that one out of the stadium.

[ChumpDumper]

Even the Obama/Wright linkage ad didn't work.

[PixelPusher]

Republicans dispatched a lineup of heavy hitters in the campaign’s final week, including a pre-election stop Monday by Vice President Cheney. President Bush, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and First Lady Laura Bush recorded automated calls urging voters to support Davis.

Probably did more harm than good.

[Heath Ledger]

Too Bad rasing a boatload of money means absolutely ... just ask Romney.

[Don Quixote]

You crushed that one out of the stadium.

Well ... no disrespect to the great Fouquieria splendens, but it reads more like political smack talk than anything. If Jim Rome had a politics show, this is what one of his "clones" might call in and say.

Not that I'm against talking a little smack about sports, mind you.

[Don Quixote]

Too Bad rasing a boatload of money means absolutely nothing... just ask Romney.

But Obamessiah has raised a ton of $$!

That means something. Right?

[ChumpDumper]

Too Bad rasing a boatload of money means absolutely ... just ask Romney.

How much money did Romney raise from people other than himself?

[ChumpDumper]

Well ... no disrespect to the great Fouquieria splendens, but it reads more like political smack talk than anything. If Jim Rome had a politics show, this is what one of his "clones" might call in and say.

Yeah, we're all here for the serious political discourse.

[Don Quixote]

Any time one party controls both the White House and Congress that's bad for America, and it's time to pass the vaseline.

If the libertarians had a defense policy, they'd be the perfect party for me.

Would you be okay if the Libertarians controlled both houses and the Presidency?

[clambake]

Would you be okay if the Libertarians controlled both houses and the Presidency?

the kids you teach, you call them arrogant.

would a mccain presidency disguise their opinion of you?

[BonnerDynasty]

My conservative/somewhat libertarian values will ensure I am one of the last one's standing while this country turns to unrecoverable .

That's good enough.....for me, es.

[SnakeBoy]

Democrats shouldn't get too excited. These seats are being won by running on conservative platforms... pro life, pro gun, etc. You can already see that although Dems technically have control of the house they are incapable of getting anything done because they are too far apart from each other on the issues.

It's an odd time though. Republicans keep trying move their message to the left in an attempt to hold onto power and the Democrats are going to get power by moving their message to the right.